In Summary: Why we should have retooled, not rebuilt

[Celtics4ever]

Glad you feel that way now here is some advice, right back at you.   Grow up, it is water under the bridge.

1) The Thunder tanked to get Durant.  SA got Duncan that way, it is not a sure thing but when it works it is beautiful.   It got the Cavs LeBron.  There is no way to change a team more dramatically.  It's on their management for not resigning him.

2) The Raptors were not able to keep all their assets these teams you mention because of their tax situation.
 
3) The Pacers have not won crap but they are good team that has a chance every year and this year they got closer.   Every team has a window and their window is open right now.

4) We have a tradition none of these teams have to draw upon.  LA has a tradition.   Our history is one of our greatest strengths.

5) Teams that win constantly retool.  San Antonio has a core but their supporting cast changed, same of the Bulls.   Lakers retool all the time and they stay relevant.  MIA retooled and look at them.  Wade and Shaq and now the current CHeat team.

6) We were 41 and 40 last year and not an elite team anymore.  PP was and is no longer clutch as he once was and has lost a step.  KG plays in spurts.   It was time, we got owned in the playoffs.

7) Age beats all athletes over time.   You have to get younger.  This is not xbox where players do not age.  It's hard to win a race with an old horse.

Dealing got us the big three, it got LA Kobe, it works if you make wise deals.

I think breaking the team up was brutal but it was time.   You assume that we would make the playoffs and the like.  Anyone alive in the 90s who saw the slow death of the Bird Era Celtics will tell you it took us about 10 years to get decent again because we didn't retool.  Ainge's wheeling and dealing worked in much less time.

[rondoallaturca]

@truthhurts34: Great points, and that's why tanking is a very viable option. But again, the C's aren't in a position to land a top 5 pick in 2014 unless we also trade Rondo. Let's pretend Ainge goes full nuketown and does. Our chances at a top 5 STILL isn't guaranteed. But let's pretend again, and say we do get a top 5 pick and nab a franchise changer. Now I'm going to stop you. Everyone thinks that once we get that franchise changer, our fortunes are turned and we're immediate contenders. What if we get a Greg Oden? A Kwame Brown? Okay, so let's pretend ONCE AGAIN we get a Durant or Lebron. Has Durant won anything yet? Did Lebron win anything until he joined Miami? Fact is that even after we get a franchise changer, which already comes with a whole variety of conditions already, there's even more factors that play in to make it a contender. That means we're risking potentially 5-10 years when we have a much safer, surer alternative. You say that Memphis and OKC HAD to blow it up and tank, but that's because they didn't have the pieces we do right now. Memphis had Gasol, and that was it. OKC (technically Seattle) had both Allen and Lewis, but correct me if I'm wrong, wasn't Lewis demanding a huge contract? Meanwhile, right now Boston has both Rondo and Green, who have VERY team-friendly contracts, which is even moreso important in today's CBA than the past. We have a solid bench core in Bradley and Sullinger, who are still on their rookie contracts. We are NOT in the same position as Memphis or OKC were, and comparing our situation to theirs is a bit ignorant in my opinion. Furthermore, it's also ignorant to so confidently assume that the 16/18 BKN first rounders are going to be good since the Nets are going to stink. How do you know that? Pierce's contract is over in one year. KG's in two. JJ's and Lopez's in three. They have D-Will for the next 4 years, and I will bet you that their limitless spending owner will continue to reload each and every year and surround D-Will with a competitive team.

@Celtics4ever: With all due respect, how is that advice? Many points you made are ones I agree with. I don't think breaking up the team is brutal at all. It's absolutely necessary, and you're right. It is time. I don't understand what your point is.

[rondoallaturca]

@chambers: You're right that Indiana has a physical specimen in Hibbert. The Spurs have Duncan. The Grizzlies have Gasol. These dominant, skilled big men are why those teams are so challenging, and you're exactly right in that it's not exactly easy to find a big man on that level. And you're right that retooling into a contender isn't easy at all. But you know what? Building a contender in general isn't easy. Winning a championship isn't easy. Everything has a whole lot of luck and risk tied to it. However, like I've continued to stress the entire time, trying to swing for the fences in the 2014 draft is one of the riskiest paths we could pursue right now, and the rewards aren't guaranteed to be better than the alternatives. That's why while I disagree on your belief that we have to tank for the 2014 draft, I agree that with all the assets we have collected, we go out and trade for the players that can make Rondo and Green solid complimentary pieces. I already mentioned in an earlier post that Rondo, Lee, Green, Millsap, and Gortat with a strong bench is on par with what the Pacers or Grizzlies have. I'm not sure if that can take down the Thunder, but they're certainly a strong force against Miami. Of course, will the chemistry work out? That's not known, but that's a common factor between building any contending team. And like you said, Ainge can be patient and wait for the bigger fish to come out, and trade for someone like Aldridge or Love. You also mentioned Durant, but let me just say right now that he isn't going to be a possibility.

[truthhurts34]

@truthhurts34: Great points, and that's why tanking is a very viable option. But again, the C's aren't in a position to land a top 5 pick in 2014 unless we also trade Rondo. Let's pretend Ainge goes full nuketown and does. Our chances at a top 5 STILL isn't guaranteed. But let's pretend again, and say we do get a top 5 pick and nab a franchise changer. Now I'm going to stop you. Everyone thinks that once we get that franchise changer, our fortunes are turned and we're immediate contenders. What if we get a Greg Oden? A Kwame Brown? Okay, so let's pretend ONCE AGAIN we get a Durant or Lebron. Has Durant won anything yet? Did Lebron win anything until he joined Miami? Fact is that even after we get a franchise changer, which already comes with a whole variety of conditions already, there's even more factors that play in to make it a contender. That means we're risking potentially 5-10 years when we have a much safer, surer alternative. You say that Memphis and OKC HAD to blow it up and tank, but that's because they didn't have the pieces we do right now. Memphis had Gasol, and that was it. OKC (technically Seattle) had both Allen and Lewis, but correct me if I'm wrong, wasn't Lewis demanding a huge contract? Meanwhile, right now Boston has both Rondo and Green, who have VERY team-friendly contracts, which is even moreso important in today's CBA than the past. We have a solid bench core in Bradley and Sullinger, who are still on their rookie contracts. We are NOT in the same position as Memphis or OKC were, and comparing our situation to theirs is a bit ignorant in my opinion. Furthermore, it's also ignorant to so confidently assume that the 16/18 BKN first rounders are going to be good since the Nets are going to stink. How do you know that? Pierce's contract is over in one year. KG's in two. JJ's and Lopez's in three. They have D-Will for the next 4 years, and I will bet you that their limitless spending owner will continue to reload each and every year and surround D-Will with a competitive team.

Deron Williams will be 33 in 4 years & he's also already lost a step. He's nowhere near how good he was on the Jazz as he's perennially nagged by injuries now.

Being a limitless spending owner would make sense if this were the MLB but we have a salary cap here in the NBA.

You say it's ignorant to assume picks in '16 & '18 will be good ones, I'm looking at Lopez's max contract as well as then 33 year old Williams max contract and simply seeing a team filled with no real flexibility to realistically contend. Their window is 2 years max, once pierce and Kevin are gone what are they left with exactly? No picks and JJ/Deron well in their 30's. You can't retool around that...

To answer your question about Durant & Lebron who never won w/ the teams they were drafted from. Did their management ever win a chip? Did Ainge bring Paul Pierce(who we drafted) a team that eventually won a championship?

It was widely known when we were supposed to get the #2 pick in '07 that IF we had gotten the #1 that danny would've drafted Durant.

Rondo already will miss a good amount of time, we will start off the season with a horrendous record. He will want the max next year which I don't think he'll be worth at the age of 30. If he were to be traded so be it, he's not a player you build around.

Once we get a great pick in 14 we have PLENTY of assets and picks to trade, 6 1st round draft picks in the next 3 years & 9 in the next 5 years. That isn't even counting what we will probably get for Humphries at the deadline or even Rondo...The future's bright and our GM ultimately did the right thing.

[rondoallaturca]

@truthhurts34: Actually, let's hit the pause button. I don't think we're far apart at all. I'm not saying the Brooklyn trade is bad. The Wallace contract hurts, but with his stretch provision, we still have flexibility there. We DO have a ton of assets now, and that's a great way to look for a trade to bring in guys that will take us back to contention. And that is my whole point. Right now, we need to retool. Look for established players via trade (using our incredible amount of assets) or free agency, and with the draft picks we have left over, scour for cheap contributors. What we SHOULDN'T do is completely rebulid rely on the draft for Wiggins, Parker, or another franchise changer. It seems to me that you share a similar opinion, do you not?

[truthhurts34]

@Rondo

I don't think retooling is the best option anymore. Reason is, I dont think the Josh Smith's etc of the world will bring us a chip.

I also don't think Rondo is worth the Max at 30. These are the cards we are dealt.

We're most likely looking at a 2nd round exit with Josh Smith & company. Even with Josh Smith/Millsap etc we simply dont have the talent throughout our roster. We are ABYSMAL at the SG position, I love Avery but he's not a real starting SG in this league IMHO. He's a VERY good backup SG to have on a contending team, thats about it.

That is not worth mortgaging the future over, and it certainly isn't worth retooling around. Pierce and Garnett 3-4 years ago was worth the retool which we did and nothing came to fruition. That train has passed.

As for Wallace's stretch provision, Id rather just pay him the normal contract and get it over with than over 7 years. In 7 years we will already be good again and I wouldn't want that on our cap. Every dollar matters when you're a contender.

We should absolutely rebuild, in fact we already are  rebuilding as we speak. Ainge just gutted our team dude. There is nothing to retool around that is worth mortgaging our future for. Our best player is injured, Green is a nice player and the rest of our ENTIRE ROSTER are role players.

We need more talent plain and simple. Tank time!

[cb8883]

If Rondo is back we're in Bucks land. But if Ainge is smart and trades him for the first pick in 2014 that is offered to us then you get a very young player on the court next year. By the time we're good again Rondo will already be where J-Kidd was last year. We are at least 4 years away and probably 6 from making some serious noise again. That's the right way to do it. The C's were on the right track until they scrapped the plan for Ray and KG. Imagine this team with Rose/Big Al/G-Money/The stuff we would have gotten for Pierce and Rondo in trades. We could actually be where Indiana is right now. I celebrated the quick fix title like everyone else just saying that we wouldn't have to rebuild if we stood pat and tanked the following year for D-Rose.

[Celtics4ever]

The C's were on the right track until they scrapped the plan for Ray and KG. Imagine this team with Rose/Big Al/G-Money/The stuff we would have gotten for Pierce and Rondo in trades. We could actually be where Indiana is right now. I celebrated the quick fix title like everyone else just saying that we wouldn't have to rebuild if we stood pat and tanked the following year for D-Rose.

This would not have yielded a championship with Big Al and the gang.  Just ask Utah.

[cb8883]

The C's were on the right track until they scrapped the plan for Ray and KG. Imagine this team with Rose/Big Al/G-Money/The stuff we would have gotten for Pierce and Rondo in trades. We could actually be where Indiana is right now. I celebrated the quick fix title like everyone else just saying that we wouldn't have to rebuild if we stood pat and tanked the following year for D-Rose.

This would not have yielded a championship with Big Al and the gang.  Just ask Utah.

Utah never had Rose. Big Al > Boozer and plus the C's still had some players like TA/G-Money etc..

[rondoallaturca]

@truthhurts34

There's a lot of assumptions you're making in that post. For one, you're setting Josh Smith as the standard of FAs we'd be getting. Another, you think Rondo will be demanding a max contract. Both of these are way off the mark IMO.

You say Bradley isn't a starter in this league, but I disagree. I don't envision him being a 35 minute player, but he can easily fill a Sefolosha-type role of being a pesky defender who can start, but only end up playing 25 minutes a game. Next to Rondo, Bradley thrives best.

Outside of Rondo and Green, you're absolutely right the entire roster is full of role players. But they're solid role players at good to great contracts (Lee, Sullinger, Bradley, Olynyk).

Granted, retooling doesn't come with any promises. You're right that if it backfires, we mortgage our future. But realistically, how long do we set ourselves back by? Meanwhile, if we tank and backfire, that is a legitimate blow that will set us back by at least 10 years. You have to weigh the cost and benefits, and with the current roster, tanking absolutely makes no sense. I mean, I have never heard of any team enter a rebuild phase, but first have to make a bajilion moves before they're ready to tank. When teams rebuild, that's because they're absolutely in a p--- poor situation. Boston is not.

Us needing more talent is an obvious observation. But getting it through retooling is much smarter. Through trade and free agency, we simply aren't limited to "Josh Smith's". In fact, like I've stressed time and time again, we should be AVOIDING Josh Smith. Make smart moves with guys like Paul Millsap and Eric Maynor, and when the big fish present themselves (Aldridge, Love, etc), we pounce with our amazing amount of assets, and what do you know? We're right back in the mix. There's no risk of not getting a top 5 lottery pick. There's no risk of depending on a draft pick that might be a bust. There's no risk of depending on a draft pick that might take longer than expected to develop. There's no risk of relying on a young draft pick to carry the team. I can keep going.

Retooling rather than rebuilding minimizes MANY risks, gives us as good of a shot (if not better) of contending - at a much quicker rate, and doesn't make us have to look like the laughing stock of the league for a year (or years).

EDIT: Also, I thank you for actually taking the time to have an intellectual debate. I'm not going to name any names, but it was really frustrating when people automatically assume that by retool, I mean that we should've kept KG/PP, get Josh Smith, and be stuck in NBA purgatory.

[truthhurts34]

@Rondo

Except we are in a poor position, but purposely. We will struggle to score 70 points on a nightly basis, Ainge is tanking for higher picks this year, he looked at our roster - he saw that Rajon will be missing for a good portion of the season. That is reality, we will NOT be good next year. There is no point in adding better pieces to the team in '13-'14. We get our good draft pick and go from there.

Why would I want to give up our picks for Millsap this year? What does he ultimately do for us given our entire roster? 4-5 more wins for a bad team and a worse '14 pick? He isn't worth that and the amount of cap space he will take. Ultimately hindering our chance to be a better team in the future. This is the point you seem to be missing.

There is nothing to Retool, unlike the mid 2000's a young Paul Pierce does not exist on our team anymore. We are in the stage of trying to GET the next Paul Pierce through the draft. Rondo and Green are irrelevant in the long run and aren't the caliber of players you build a team around. Sure Bradley would be a good starter on OKC, except we have no durant or westbrook. We are tanking to GET the next durant or westbrook caliber player. That simply is not coming through a trade given what we have to offer.

Do you want the next Pierce or Durant type caliber player? If yes then you should agree that band-aid patch retooling is the most unrealistic way of acquiring such a player.

[chambers]

@chambers: You're right that Indiana has a physical specimen in Hibbert. The Spurs have Duncan. The Grizzlies have Gasol. These dominant, skilled big men are why those teams are so challenging, and you're exactly right in that it's not exactly easy to find a big man on that level. And you're right that retooling into a contender isn't easy at all. But you know what? Building a contender in general isn't easy. Winning a championship isn't easy. Everything has a whole lot of luck and risk tied to it. However, like I've continued to stress the entire time, trying to swing for the fences in the 2014 draft is one of the riskiest paths we could pursue right now, and the rewards aren't guaranteed to be better than the alternatives. That's why while I disagree on your belief that we have to tank for the 2014 draft, I agree that with all the assets we have collected, we go out and trade for the players that can make Rondo and Green solid complimentary pieces. I already mentioned in an earlier post that Rondo, Lee, Green, Millsap, and Gortat with a strong bench is on par with what the Pacers or Grizzlies have. I'm not sure if that can take down the Thunder, but they're certainly a strong force against Miami. Of course, will the chemistry work out? That's not known, but that's a common factor between building any contending team. And like you said, Ainge can be patient and wait for the bigger fish to come out, and trade for someone like Aldridge or Love. You also mentioned Durant, but let me just say right now that he isn't going to be a possibility.

I appreciate your response and keeping it civil and well thought out.
You're right, we could fluff entirely in the draft and have another Greg Oden.
We could get lucky enough to get a legit star.
I understand what you're saying about adding pieces around Rondo and Green and making the most out of Rondo while he's here. Unfortunately, a team of Rondo, Green, Millsap, Gortat just doesn't cut it against the best teams in the NBA.
It's a very good team and we probably win 40-45 games, but we don't have a superstar or a game changing big man in the paint. There's ZERO chance of that team beating Miami, OKC, the Grizzlies, the Bulls etc..
 If you added Hibbert to that lineup instead of Gortat then we can start to talk about a solid team.
Hell even Garnett in there would be good as a rim protector.
There just aren't any free agents out there that we can get that are 'game changers'. The only star we have is Rondo. Green is a great role player. He's not a star. Bradley is a mediocre role player- far from a star.
Look at the list of free agents forwards, centers and shooting guards (our positions of need) and tell me who in the next 2 years would get us to an elite level.
I mean Lebron and Wade and Bosh are all up for negotiation but I actually like our chances in the lottery more than signing Lebron.
Eric Gordon?
Josh Smith?

They just don't cut it. Green and Rondo are complementary pieces to a star. Rondo's a star, but I don't think at this stage he's proven to be able to carry a team offensively. He may prove me wrong, but he's a 2nd option star- Like Russell Westbrook is to Kevin Durant, or Paul George is to Roy Hibbert. What we need is a Durant or a Hibbert to go with Rondo and Green.
Smith, Millsap, Al Jeff are all great players but they aren't stars. They aren't putting the team on their back and taking us through the playoffs past some of the toughest teams and stars in the last 25 years of the NBA.
Even the Grizzlies drafted Marc Gasol. They developed Mike Conley to a player on Rondo's level. They drafted Rudy Gay. They then added Randolph to this core via free agency but they drafted all three of Gasol, Conley and Gay.

To re-tool you need a 'franchise' level player or two to build around.
The closest thing we have is Rondo and although he's a top 5 point guard in the league, his flaws on the offensive end stop him from going to the next level.

Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce were franchise level players. Ray Allen was a perennial All Star and the greatest shooter of all time.
Even with KG, Pierce and Ray we still could have walked away without any championships in the last 5 years.(funnily enough because we had to get through the number one pick in Lebron James in 7 games)
How do you think a team of Rondo, Jeff Green, Millsap, Gortat some role players is going to go against a healthy Bulls, Heat, Indiana, Memphis, Lakers, Thunder league?

Funnily enough all of those above mentioned teams have at least 2 all stars or more and only one of them will win.
That's how tough the NBA is today.
We could field a team that willl win 45-50 games for the next 5 years and cross our fingers that the real contenders have serious injuries to boost our chances, meanwhile hoping that our own squad doesn't suffer any more ACL tears.

Or we can start from the bottom up and rebuild the roster with draft picks, waiting patiently for the correct superstar free agent opportunity to become available.
You also said Kevin Durant is almost a zero chance of attaining. So how then do you attain a player like Kevin Durant if you can't sign him through free agency or trade?
 

[rondoallaturca]

@truthhurts34

I hear you. I just think that right now, unlike you, I just don't think the risk is worth the reward when it comes to giving up on a star player and a very above average starter for a chance at getting a superstar. You said it yourself. To get to a bad position, we had to purposely do it. Typically, rebuilds occur because teams are already in a bad position. You can argue that the 2014 draft is so good that it's worth purposely rebuilding, but I truly believe that we can mold together a contending team without having to take on all the risks associated with a full-blown rebuild.

@chambers

You know, Gortat really is no Hibbert. I definitely think I might have overblown his potential impact to a C's team when thinking about a retool. However, you use that as your point that it's better for us to build through the draft and wait for the correct superstar free agent opportunity to become available. In that case, doesn't it simply hinge on timing then? If so, wouldn't it best that we always stay ready so that when the opportunity becomes available, we have the best supporting cast possible to get a championship? What happens when a free agent star looks at the C's and sees a roster full of developing draft picks? At the very least, with what we have now, wouldn't Rondo/Green already look more appealing as is? PLENTY of teams wish for a franchise PG and an above average athletic SF, especially on the contracts they're on right now.

As for my Durant comment, I take it back. When I made the comment, I thought about KD loving the city, enjoying having a smart management, and having a solid supporting cast. However, then I realized that while this management is smart with drafting, they're not so smart with the other things. They've already proven that they'd rather stay under the cap rather than pay for another star (Harden). Look where that got Cleveland. Cleveland never made the bold moves required to bring in a truly elite supporting cast for Lebron, and he bolted. Durant is nice, but so was Lebron. You have to wonder, barring a bold move, if Durant has a change of heart like Lebron does. And unlike Lebron, Durant doesn't have to deal with the whole hometown heartache dilemma, either. Bottom line is that anything is possible in the NBA. I'd just much rather us always stay on the ready so we're in position for every opportunity.