Lots of interesting stuff in here. The one that stuck out to me the most:
Per ESPN's Stats & Information research, Bradley (.297, 1st), Green (.336, 7th) and Pierce (.340, 9th) all rank among the NBA's top 10 on-ball defenders this season as measured by field goal percentage against them.
Can we all agree, that the Truth is a baller! Anyway, rest of the article below.
If the Miami Heat's 22-game winning streak is going to end anytime soon, it will probably be Monday night at the TD Garden in Boston at the hands of the rival Celtics. Boston is the best team the Heat will face until they visit Chicago on March 27, and this contest is the second of back-to-back road games for Miami. Beyond that, the Celtics have historically given the Heat as much difficulty as any opponent in the league.
MIAMI KRYPTONITE
Team Wins Losses Pct.
Boston 3 7 .300
Chicago 3 6 .333
L.A. Clippers 2 3 .400
Memphis 2 3 .400
Utah 2 3 .400
You remember Boston taking a 3-2 series lead over Miami in last year's Eastern Conference finals before the Heat rallied to win the last two games en route to the championship. The Celtics have been troublesome for Miami much longer than that. In the nearly three full seasons since LeBron James and Chris Bosh took their talents to South Beach, Boston is 7-3 against the Heat -- the best record of any opponent (see chart).
What's the formula the Celtics and a handful of other teams have used to beat Miami? And does it still apply now that Ray Allen is on the other side and Rajon Rondo is watching from the sidelines? That has implications for Boston's chances of winning Monday, and more importantly in case these teams meet for the third consecutive postseason.
1. Playing big
Of the five teams, including the Celtics, with an above-.500 record against the James-led Heat, Boston is the only one that employs small ball on a regular basis. The other four teams feature a pair of true big men capable of taking advantage of Miami's smaller frontcourt, a matchup that has only become more important this season. Add in Indiana (2-1 versus the Heat this season) and the trend becomes all the stronger. Only the New York Knicks have succeeded against Miami by matching up small against small.
That's not to say the Celtics should call up Fab Melo for this game. The Heat are vulnerable to a relatively rare type of big man -- a player who is strong enough to post up Shane Battier and crash the offensive glass, and athletic enough to defend shooters like Battier and Bosh on the perimeter. Power forwards David West (Indiana), Blake Griffin (L.A. Clippers) and Paul Millsap (Utah) fall into that category. So do Boston's Kevin Garnett and Chicago's Joakim Noah, who are two of the league's most versatile centers when it comes to defending on the perimeter.
Though Garnett doesn't exactly bully Miami in the paint, he still used his pick-and-pop game to average 19.1 points in last year's playoff series. Add in his role on defense, and Garnett is even more critical than usual in the matchup with the Heat. In the 91 minutes he spent on the bench during last year's Eastern Conference finals, Boston was outscored by 17.4 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com/Stats.
2. Matching up on the wing
Another common factor among the teams that have bothered Miami: elite wing defenders capable of making LeBron James and Dwyane Wade work for their points. The group includes stoppers like Chicago's Luol Deng, Indiana's Paul George and Memphis' Tony Allen. Nobody does better in this regard than the Celtics, who can throw the tandem of Avery Bradley and Paul Pierce at Wade and James, respectively, with Jeff Green finishing games against James and Courtney Lee offering another option on Wade.
Per ESPN's Stats & Information research, Bradley (.297, 1st), Green (.336, 7th) and Pierce (.340, 9th) all rank among the NBA's top 10 on-ball defenders this season as measured by field goal percentage against them. That gives coach Doc Rivers a variety of defensive options and keeps Bradley, Green and Pierce fresh.
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Because Bradley barely played as a rookie and Green missed last year following heart surgery, this is the first season Boston has had a full complement of wing defenders to match up with the Heat. The Celtics have always done well against Wade, who has averaged just 17.3 points on 36.2 percent FG shooting in nine regular-season matchups between the teams in the past three seasons (including this season). James has been more effective, though Boston has held him to 51.1 percent shooting, compared to his 53 percent overall accuracy in that time frame.
Those same trends held on Jan. 27, when Boston handed the Heat one of their last losses before their winning streak began. James needed 31 shot attempts to score 34 points, while Wade was limited to 17 points on 6-of-20 shooting.
3. Defending the 3
Lastly, the Miami offense feeds on 3-pointers. The Heat are shooting 40.3 percent from downtown in wins, compared to 32.8 percent in losses. It should come as no surprise, then, that the league's three best 3-point defenses (Indiana, Boston and Chicago) have had success against Miami. The Heat shot just 5-of-23 from long distance in the loss at Boston earlier this season. In particular, the Celtics took away Miami's beloved corner 3, holding the Heat to 1-of-8 from the sideline per NBA.com/Stats.
4. Pulling the upset?
The good news for Boston fans when it comes to assessing the Celtics' chances of knocking off Miami is that none of those factors really involves injured point guard Rajon Rondo. As good as Rondo was in last year's Eastern Conference finals, Boston has already demonstrated its ability to survive offensively without him. If anything, replacing Rondo with Courtney Lee has given Rivers more defensive options against the Heat's stars, so Rondo's absence shouldn't affect this analysis.
The more important figure is Garnett. If he sits out Monday due to the adductor strain that caused him to miss Boston's win over Charlotte on Saturday, it's hard to imagine that a defense anchored by Brandon Bass can slow down the Heat. Rivers told reporters on Sunday that Garnett is "50-50 at best" to play Monday.
The Celtics are managing Garnett's injury carefully precisely so he's available for the playoffs, and a potential matchup with Miami somewhere along the line. If that materializes, Boston's matchup advantages serve to cut into the Heat's talent edge, without entirely erasing it. After all, the two teams are now in totally different zip codes. As the Celtics battle to get back in the race for the Atlantic Division, Miami is playing the best basketball we've seen from any team in years.
As promising as the Celtics' win over the Heat in January was, it still required overtime on their home floor, and Miami had three different shots that could have won the game in the closing seconds. There's a big jump between beating the Heat once and doing so four times in seven games. With the way Miami is playing right now, it doesn't appear these Celtics -- or anyone else in the East -- are likely to stand in the way of another Heat trip to the Finals.
Topic: ESPN Insider: Can Boston Celtics end Heat's run? (Read 2601 times)