Hollinger Wrong - Cs won't be in lottery

[LooseCannon]

People who crunch numbers have shown that the ability to blow out bad teams is a better predictor of post-season success than the ability to win close games against good teams.

Which is why the Miami Heat won the championship last season. Oh, wait.

That's the same sort of mentality as the ESPN talking heads that specialize in binary thinking where something is either 100% true or else its false.  We live in a probabilistic world.  An exception doesn't make a general trend wrong.

[MBunge]

People who crunch numbers have shown that the ability to blow out bad teams is a better predictor of post-season success than the ability to win close games against good teams.

Which is why the Miami Heat won the championship last season. Oh, wait.

That's the same sort of mentality as the ESPN talking heads that specialize in binary thinking where something is either 100% true or else its false.  We live in a probabilistic world.  An exception doesn't make a general trend wrong.

And I'm sick and tired of the nonsensical thinking that stats get credit for being right but never any blame for being wrong.

Mike

[LooseCannon]

People who crunch numbers have shown that the ability to blow out bad teams is a better predictor of post-season success than the ability to win close games against good teams.

Which is why the Miami Heat won the championship last season. Oh, wait.

That's the same sort of mentality as the ESPN talking heads that specialize in binary thinking where something is either 100% true or else its false.  We live in a probabilistic world.  An exception doesn't make a general trend wrong.

And I'm sick and tired of the nonsensical thinking that stats get credit for being right but never any blame for being wrong.

You can't be right 100% of the time, stats should get credit for being right more often than non-stats people who cite "intangibles" that are really just attempts to explain random noise.

[KGs Knee]

People who crunch numbers have shown that the ability to blow out bad teams is a better predictor of post-season success than the ability to win close games against good teams.

Which is why the Miami Heat won the championship last season. Oh, wait.

That's the same sort of mentality as the ESPN talking heads that specialize in binary thinking where something is either 100% true or else its false.  We live in a probabilistic world.  An exception doesn't make a general trend wrong.

And I'm sick and tired of the nonsensical thinking that stats get credit for being right but never any blame for being wrong.

You can't be right 100% of the time, stats should get credit for being right more often than non-stats people who cite "intangibles" that are really just attempts to explain random noise.

Care to provide any substantial evidence this is actually true.  Or is this just a biased and unfounded claim?

[fairweatherfan]

People who crunch numbers have shown that the ability to blow out bad teams is a better predictor of post-season success than the ability to win close games against good teams.

Which is why the Miami Heat won the championship last season. Oh, wait.

That's the same sort of mentality as the ESPN talking heads that specialize in binary thinking where something is either 100% true or else its false.  We live in a probabilistic world.  An exception doesn't make a general trend wrong.

And I'm sick and tired of the nonsensical thinking that stats get credit for being right but never any blame for being wrong.

That's good, because that is exactly the thinking that people that understand statistics don't have.  The entire approach is based on preferring demonstrable probability over phony certainty.  It's mostly the people that dislike stats that pretend they're supposed be infallible. 

But since you seem certain that statistical analysis isn't useful, can you tell me what method of basketball analysis is better?  Not just once in a while, but consistently.

[More Banners]

People who crunch numbers have shown that the ability to blow out bad teams is a better predictor of post-season success than the ability to win close games against good teams.

Which is why the Miami Heat won the championship last season. Oh, wait.

That's the same sort of mentality as the ESPN talking heads that specialize in binary thinking where something is either 100% true or else its false.  We live in a probabilistic world.  An exception doesn't make a general trend wrong.

And I'm sick and tired of the nonsensical thinking that stats get credit for being right but never any blame for being wrong.

That's good, because that is exactly the thinking that people that understand statistics don't have.  The entire approach is based on preferring demonstrable probability over phony certainty.  It's mostly the people that dislike stats that pretend they're supposed be infallible. 

But since you seem certain that statistical analysis isn't useful, can you tell me what method of basketball analysis is better?  Not just once in a while, but consistently.

Whatever method Red used to use.

[KGs Knee]

PER leaves plenty to be desired, but his method of rating teams is even worse and his playoff odds are derived from that.

I assure you that the Sixers are no where close to being the 4th best team in the NBA.

Yeah, I don't think any sane person would ever claim Philly is the 4th best team in the league.

I'm sure some will say "well that is just an outlier", while I would contend it's the exact reason not to trust scoring margin as a predictor of future success.  It has no ability to see beyond the numbers.

[LooseCannon]

Right now, Hollinger's playoff odds have the 76ers as the 5th best team (behind Chicago, Miami, OKC, and San Antonio), with a 7.8% of winning the title and a 13.4% chance of making the finals.

Whatever is going into his simulations seems to see the Western Conference as weak, because his numbers add up to none of the western teams being seen as 50% or better to win it all if they make the finals, while his numbers have teams like the 76ers and Pacers being favorites to take the title if they make it to the finals.