A brief look at Rondo's stats this year

[Boris Badenov]

Here's a bit more detail on the numbers. All courtesy of Hoopdata:

http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Rajon%20Rondo

This year Rondo is shooting 43% of his shots at the rim, compared to 48% last year. He is shooting a slightly higher percentage (66% vs. 64%). The percentage of his field goals coming at the rim has not declined much.

The "jump-shooting" piece of his game also shows improvement by at least one measure. He is taking 34% of his shots from 16-23 feet and making 39% of those shots, up from making 30% on many fewer attempts last year. In this range, these are numbers one can live with. (As a point of comparison, Pierce is also shooting 39% on roughly the same number of attempts).

Where we really see a difference is in the short-range area (3-16 feet). Rondo is taking fewer shots (1.5 vs. 2.5) and shooting 33% this year, down from nearly 50% last year.

I'm not saying I know how to put this all together, but it might be a more complicated picture than "he's not being aggressive," because he IS shooting at the rim and scoring quite well there. Nor is it "he's shooting more jumpers and doing that badly" - he is shooting more long jumpers, but he's doing that pretty well.

One thing I'd like to know is where most free throws are drawn. If he was getting calls in that same 3-16 foot range last year but isn't now, then maybe this means he is avoiding contact and only going to the rim when the lane is wide open.

[Vermont Green]

Teams have figured out how to play him, it is as simple as that; I am surprised it took this long to catch up with him.  This has him frustrated and rattled.

Rondo is what he is.  Getting Shaq back will help the team but is going to be tough for the team from hear on.  We can still win with Rondo being the current Rondo (obviously) but we are going to have to grind it out.

[Tgro]

I love Rondo, but only when he does the things he does best. If he's not putting up a layup, I almost never want to see him shoot. Yeah, he makes some of his shots and I know what he's capable of, I'm just not seeing it the way I want to.

I hate seeing all those impossible floaters and rushed off-target shots. Furthermore, if he does get fouled, the man misses an unexcuseable amount of those shots. He should already know his weaknesses and be adjusting his efforts accordingly. Yet every time I tune into a game, I see him doing the same things over and over.

I fully do expect him to pick it up and turn it on when the playoffs start. He shook up the world in the playoffs for a bit last year. When he is on, he is a real difference maker. He can turn the tide in our favor all by himself. At his best we are an exceptional team. But at his worst, he can bury us with too many ill-advised moments.

I'm praying to god he brings his "A" game to the playoffs.   

[BballTim]

Teams have figured out how to play him, it is as simple as that; I am surprised it took this long to catch up with him.  This has him frustrated and rattled.

  Coaches that use crayons to draw up their plays wouldn't take 4+ years to figure out how to guard someone who isn't a great outside shooter.

[greenpride32]

I personally think Rondo is trying to avoid heavy contact associated with taking it hard to the rim (in the way CP3, D-Will, Rose, Westbrook do) because he's a relatively small (NBA terms) and fragile guy.  His aggresive play during the post season last year was great.  But he also paid the price as he got hammered and was not 100% for the last 2 series.  Did you not cringe every time he was lying on the floor looking like he just got shot?  That was a frequent image during the last post season, but how many times have you seen it during the current regular season? ... not very often.

[Roy H.]

Haha. After roughly 100 billion posts on celticsblog complaining about Rondo passing up open jumpers he starts getting ripped for taking outside shots and not getting to the rim enough. Clearly those outside shots he's taking have affected the number of foul shots he takes and his fg%. Should he take more jump shots *and* more inside shots, taking well more shots than RA/PP/KG in the process?

This argument seems like a bit of a strawman.  There may have been a small number of people complaining about Rondo passing up open jumpers, but it's never been an argument that has gotten significant support, in my opinion (and it's certainly not something that the majority of people have advocated). 

Many fans want Rondo to be a better jump shooter, but if he's shooting jumpers as poorly as he has, I'm sure the vast majority of people would prefer to see Rondo driving to the hoop, at least putting pressure on the opposing defense and getting the other team into foul trouble.

I mean, seriously, does anybody like the way Rondo has played lately?  Regardless of where he was earlier this year, regardless of his potential, and regardless of the play of the rest of the team, we can all admit that Rondo has largely sucked lately, right?  There may be legitimate reasons for that, but he's just not getting it done on the floor, correct?

  Frankly I'm beyond shocked that you'd deny that there has been an absolute plethora of posts about how Rondo passing up open jumpers hurts our offense, or that it's an argument that's never gotten significant support. I might not have read 100 billion posts stating that Rondo needs to take more open jumpers to get defenses to guard him, but 1000 might be a low estimate. It might not be an opinion the majority of the board has advocated, just the majority of people who have voiced an opinion on the subject.

  We can all agree that he's played poorly lately. But that doesn't change the fact that he gets criticized for passing up open jumpers and for not driving to the hoop enough.

I don't think you could show a dozen posters (let alone 1000 posts) who make the argument that, at his current level of proficiency, Rondo should be taking more open jumpers.

The argument I've seen a lot is that *if* Rondo could hit his open jumpers, that would make him a more dangerous player and would pay dividends for our entire offense because it would open things up more.  I think this is obvious.  However, I don't think I've ever seen a single reasonable member say that they'd be more comfortable if Rondo primarily relied upon his 35% - 40% reliable jumper.

People want Rondo playing to his perceived strengths, and I don't think anybody remotely perceives jump shooting as something that Rondo is strong at.  Most people that I've read want him to 1) be aggressive, and 2) become a better shooter so that he has that weapon in his arsenal, both at the line and offensively in general.   

[2short]

rondos outside shooting is fine when he isn't thinking about it plain and simple
he is at the point where if a shot needs to be made and its off his dribble its fine
he is not (at this point) a come off screen catch and shoot player, if he ever will be
i think he's kind of like tony allen could be over thinking his jumper (tony overthinking    )

I have noticed a lack of inside out game since shaq has "rested" this affects lanes for driving or passing

[BballTim]

Haha. After roughly 100 billion posts on celticsblog complaining about Rondo passing up open jumpers he starts getting ripped for taking outside shots and not getting to the rim enough. Clearly those outside shots he's taking have affected the number of foul shots he takes and his fg%. Should he take more jump shots *and* more inside shots, taking well more shots than RA/PP/KG in the process?

This argument seems like a bit of a strawman.  There may have been a small number of people complaining about Rondo passing up open jumpers, but it's never been an argument that has gotten significant support, in my opinion (and it's certainly not something that the majority of people have advocated). 

Many fans want Rondo to be a better jump shooter, but if he's shooting jumpers as poorly as he has, I'm sure the vast majority of people would prefer to see Rondo driving to the hoop, at least putting pressure on the opposing defense and getting the other team into foul trouble.

I mean, seriously, does anybody like the way Rondo has played lately?  Regardless of where he was earlier this year, regardless of his potential, and regardless of the play of the rest of the team, we can all admit that Rondo has largely sucked lately, right?  There may be legitimate reasons for that, but he's just not getting it done on the floor, correct?

  Frankly I'm beyond shocked that you'd deny that there has been an absolute plethora of posts about how Rondo passing up open jumpers hurts our offense, or that it's an argument that's never gotten significant support. I might not have read 100 billion posts stating that Rondo needs to take more open jumpers to get defenses to guard him, but 1000 might be a low estimate. It might not be an opinion the majority of the board has advocated, just the majority of people who have voiced an opinion on the subject.

  We can all agree that he's played poorly lately. But that doesn't change the fact that he gets criticized for passing up open jumpers and for not driving to the hoop enough.

I don't think you could show a dozen posters (let alone 1000 posts) who make the argument that, at his current level of proficiency, Rondo should be taking more open jumpers.

  He wasn't talking about Rondo's play over the last week or two, he was talking about the entire season.

The argument I've seen a lot is that *if* Rondo could hit his open jumpers, that would make him a more dangerous player and would pay dividends for our entire offense because it would open things up more.  I think this is obvious.  However, I don't think I've ever seen a single reasonable member say that they'd be more comfortable if Rondo primarily relied upon his 35% - 40% reliable jumper.

  You're really sanitizing people's arguments to make them sound better. You've never seen posts claiming Rondo passes up too many open jumpers? Really?

People want Rondo playing to his perceived strengths, and I don't think anybody remotely perceives jump shooting as something that Rondo is strong at.  Most people that I've read want him to 1) be aggressive, and 2) become a better shooter so that he has that weapon in his arsenal, both at the line and offensively in general.   

  Everyone wants Rondo to become a better shooter, but very few if any of the posts that claim Rondo needs to take more outside shots are qualified with "after he starts making them more regularly".

[Chris]

I don't think you could show a dozen posters (let alone 1000 posts) who make the argument that, at his current level of proficiency, Rondo should be taking more open jumpers.

 

My issue with Rondo's shooting is that it has become a bit of a self fulfilling profecy.  He seems to have lost all confidence in it (OK, he never really had it, but it certainly fluctuates).  And, when he is passing up the open shots to the point where defenses are completely ignoring him, and basically forcing him to either shoot, or pass into coverage, he just ends up shooting out of rhythm, which makes it even tougher to hit the shot.

I think when Rondo does shoot in rhythm, he is actually a passable shooter.  If he were to do that more often, I think his percentage would be much better, and defenses would eventually need to at least honor the shot a bit.  But right now, they know he is not going to shoot...and at the moment, they also know he won't take it to the hoop hard (whether its because of injury or something else, the result is the same, and other teams have clearly noticed)... so they not only back off him, they just sit in the passing lanes.  So, the majority of the shots he actually does take are out of rhythm, rushed, and often off balance. 

[Roy H.]

  You're really sanitizing people's arguments to make them sound better. You've never seen posts claiming Rondo passes up too many open jumpers? Really?

Like I said, I'm doubtful that you can find even a dozen posters making the claims that you've attributed to at least "1000" posts.  The gauntlet is thrown; prove me wrong.

I just think the argue that Rondo "can't win" because of the fickleness of fans is a straw man.  People want him to be aggressive, drive to the hoop, and be good enough to hit an open jumper.  I don't think *anybody* wants Rondo bombing away from outside, taking out-of-rhythm, half-hearted jump shots.

[Chris]

  You're really sanitizing people's arguments to make them sound better. You've never seen posts claiming Rondo passes up too many open jumpers? Really?

Like I said, I'm doubtful that you can find even a dozen posters making the claims that you've attributed to at least "1000" posts.  The gauntlet is thrown; prove me wrong.

I just think the argue that Rondo "can't win" because of the fickleness of fans is a straw man.  People want him to be aggressive, drive to the hoop, and be good enough to hit an open jumper.  I don't think *anybody* wants Rondo bombing away from outside, taking out-of-rhythm, half-hearted jump shots.

Yeah, I am one of the people who always says he passes up too many open jumpers, but there is no way I am calling for him to be a volume shooter.  I just thinking taking an extra 2-3 open shots a game, when he is in rhythm, rather than when he is forced to by the shotclock running down would do wonders for both his, and the teams effectiveness.