A brief look at Rondo's stats this year

[KungPoweChicken]

I think we can all safely agree that Rondo has been in a slump lately. No one is going to argue that. But their is a growing idea on this forum that Rondo has been mostly great this year, so perhaps, even though the slump is not inexcusable, it is understandable because he is fatigued from being great at the beginning of the season. But is this true?



Per Game stats:

10.3PTS--Worst since rookie year.

.488FG%--Worst since rookie year.

.545FT%--Career worst.

1.8FTA--Career worst.

3.8TOV--Career worst. (Second only to John Wall, who is at 3.9.)



Shot Selection:

57% of Rondo's shots are jump shots this year. Compare that to only 48% a year ago. This shows Rondo's unwillingness to attack the paint, which we've seen all year long.



So what has Rondo done well this year? He has clearly excelled at passing the rock, leading the league in assists. But he has also been turning the ball over at an alarming rate while doing it. His steal average has just about stayed the same, but with his career high turnover average, his efforts are practically negated.



Has Rondo's recent poor play contributed to the stats I've pointed out above? Maybe a little. But these stats are season-long-stats, and, I believe they are indicative to how Rondo has been playing all year.


Rondo had a great start to the season. He was the best player on the Celtics for the first 10 or 15 games. But since then, he has completely fizzled.


People who want to be contrarian to the stats I posted above, which were career lows, or worst since rookie season, will be quick to mention that Rondo is a UNIQUE player. But being a unique player does not equate with being a good player. The kid still has a lot to learn.



I know the stats I listed are far from exhaustive. I'm not a stat wiz. Others here could probably go into a lot more in depth stats than me. But the point I'm trying to make is to dispel the myth the Rondo was "great" for almost the whole season. I repeat, he was great for the first 10-15 games. He has been an average/below average point guard since.

[jc3celticsphan]

yea besides the assist numbers its a slump year for rondo and injuries dont help i expect him to pick it up come playoff time but not a great season for rajon.. to me he was better last year

[chambers]

yes it's been a below average year for Rondo but he is still leading the league in steals and assists.

I agree he is taking way too many jumpshots and not going to the hole like he has before.
I think this will change come playoff time when all the marbles are on the line.
Shaq returning will mean rondo attacks the rim much more and dishes off to shaq for easy dumps like they did at the start of the season.

[KungPoweChicken]

yea besides the assist numbers its a slump year for rondo and injuries dont help i expect him to pick it up come playoff time but not a great season for rajon.. to me he was better last year

He may have been injured before, but he's not injured now. Regarding the "injuries" Doc said, "I don't see it. He's just not playing well. You guys can manufacture injuries if you want."

[Who]

On the turnovers ....

Rajon Rondo is fifth best in the league in assists/turnover ratio.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/assistTurnoverRatio

Of the four players who are ahead of him, only one players (Chris Paul who is freakishly good at avoiding turnovers) is a prolific assist man who make high risk passes (like Rondo does). The other two are low risk setup guards like Jason Kidd (not the penetrator/creator he was in his prime anymore) and Jose Calderon (least creative high assist man in the league today) who don't create as much as Rondo does. The final player is Andre Iguodala (surprising, well done Iggy). Also, Steve Nash is just behind Rondo in sixth place.

The turnovers aren't a problem. Players who spend a lot of time on the ball and are shot creators (whether for themselves or others) almost always have high turnover numbers.

For example, Magic Johnson led the league in turnovers and was in the top five 8 more times. Top ten another two times. Every year of his career he was on that list. Steve Nash has led the league in turnovers twice and has been in the top five 4 more times. Jason Kidd has led the league in turnovers 3 times and has finished in the top five 3 more times. John Stockton led the league in turnovers once and finished in the top five 5 more times.

High assist players ... especially those who create and do not just make low risk setup passes that create very little (Jose Calderon) ... will have a high amount of turnovers.

They shouldn't be judged by their turnover totals but by their turnovers relative to their assist numbers. And in Rondo's case, 3.7 turnovers is perfectly acceptable relative to a league leading 11.6 assists.

[Bankshot]

I think it's the way teams are defending him.  It was only a matter of time before other teams start defending him like the Lakers.  If he doesn't improve his jumpshot, he might be done as one of the top point guards.  You see him taking more jumpers trying to keep the defense honest, but he's not keeping them honest because they know he's not going to make it.  Oh, and he's slacking on defense too.

[chambers]

I think it's the way teams are defending him.  It was only a matter of time before other teams start defending him like the Lakers.  If he doesn't improve his jumpshot, he might be done as one of the top point guards.  You see him taking more jumpers trying to keep the defense honest, but he's not keeping them honest because they know he's not going to make it.  Oh, and he's slacking on defense too.

This is a very good point (TP).
I still think he isn't taking it as hard as he could.
Even against complete chumps he isn't trying to get the hole as much. He is also missing some of the easiest shots like layups and floaters that he would normally make all day.
I honestly think this has to do with a slump more than anything.
It's funny because Doc has said that Rondo hits those jumpshots with his eyes closed in training and his poor % from length is more nerves than anything.

[BballTim]

I think we can all safely agree that Rondo has been in a slump lately. No one is going to argue that. But their is a growing idea on this forum that Rondo has been mostly great this year, so perhaps, even though the slump is not inexcusable, it is understandable because he is fatigued from being great at the beginning of the season. But is this true?



Per Game stats:

10.3PTS--Worst since rookie year.

.488FG%--Worst since rookie year.

.545FT%--Career worst.

1.8FTA--Career worst.

3.8TOV--Career worst. (Second only to John Wall, who is at 3.9.)



Shot Selection:

57% of Rondo's shots are jump shots this year. Compare that to only 48% a year ago. This shows Rondo's unwillingness to attack the paint, which we've seen all year long.

  Haha. After roughly 100 billion posts on celticsblog complaining about Rondo passing up open jumpers he starts getting ripped for taking outside shots and not getting to the rim enough. Clearly those outside shots he's taking have affected the number of foul shots he takes and his fg%. Should he take more jump shots *and* more inside shots, taking well more shots than RA/PP/KG in the process?

  He'll have a great career as long as he never tries to follow any of the advice he'd glean from this board.

So what has Rondo done well this year? He has clearly excelled at passing the rock, leading the league in assists. But he has also been turning the ball over at an alarming rate while doing it. His steal average has just about stayed the same, but with his career high turnover average, his efforts are practically negated. 

  Here's my reply to an earlier thread about Rondo's turnovers. The numbers might have changed a little since then but not a lot:

  "Rondo has the highest assist/turnover rate of the top 35 or so turnover leaders. Compared to the top 10 in turnovers he's got the fewest ballhandling turnovers and the second or 3rd lowest total of offensive fouls. He has more passing turnovers than most of the list but he's probably 2nd or so in best assist/bad pass ratio."

  He doesn't turn the ball over at an alarming rate, or even a high rate. He generally turns the ball over at a lower rate for what he does than most people. It's also worth noting that as Rondo's role in the offense has grown the Celts have been showing smallish increases in assists per game and decreases in turnovers per game each year since 07-08.

People who want to be contrarian to the stats I posted above, which were career lows, or worst since rookie season, will be quick to mention that Rondo is a UNIQUE player. But being a unique player does not equate with being a good player. The kid still has a lot to learn.

  No, being a unique player doesn't always mean you're a great player. It generally means that you have to look at different aspects of a player's game to decide how good they are. You need to measure a player's total impact on the game. Rondo can impact a game in more ways that most point guards. He can take over games without scoring much. That's unique. But it's not the fact that he's unique that matters, it's the fact that the overall impact of his contributions affect a game as much as a "better player" does.

[pearljammer10]

I think we can all safely agree that Rondo has been in a slump lately. No one is going to argue that. But their is a growing idea on this forum that Rondo has been mostly great this year, so perhaps, even though the slump is not inexcusable, it is understandable because he is fatigued from being great at the beginning of the season. But is this true?



Per Game stats:

10.3PTS--Worst since rookie year.

.488FG%--Worst since rookie year.

.545FT%--Career worst.

1.8FTA--Career worst.

3.8TOV--Career worst. (Second only to John Wall, who is at 3.9.)



Shot Selection:

57% of Rondo's shots are jump shots this year. Compare that to only 48% a year ago. This shows Rondo's unwillingness to attack the paint, which we've seen all year long.

This is the one that gets me riled up the most. There is no reason for Rondo to not be attacking the basket. He can blow by defenders easily, and snake his way up to the hoop with an alley oop without trouble. Hopefully come playoff time the amount of jumpers will go down.

[Roy H.]

Overall, I don't worry about his stats too much.  The last nine games, though, have been terrible.

March stats:  6.8 points, 3.2 rebounds, 8.8 assists, 2.7 turnovers, 34.1% FG%, 1.0 FTA/G

That's just ugly.  I hope he goes back to being the player he was earlier this year as soon as possible.

[vinnie]

The guy is playing totally disinterested basketball right now. He never goes to the foul line --- I believe he has taken 2 free throws total in the last 7 games -- and rarely drives to the hoop. His jumpshot has been atrocious this month -- I think the worst I have ever seen it. Who knows what is wrong with him, but for the month of March he would not even be in the top 50 percent of point guards.

I agree that overall his turnovers are not a problem because he has the ball so much and gets so many assists. However, when you turn the ball over and don't get the assists and don't score, it becomes a problem. That has been the month of March for Rondo.

[Roy H.]

Haha. After roughly 100 billion posts on celticsblog complaining about Rondo passing up open jumpers he starts getting ripped for taking outside shots and not getting to the rim enough. Clearly those outside shots he's taking have affected the number of foul shots he takes and his fg%. Should he take more jump shots *and* more inside shots, taking well more shots than RA/PP/KG in the process?

This argument seems like a bit of a strawman.  There may have been a small number of people complaining about Rondo passing up open jumpers, but it's never been an argument that has gotten significant support, in my opinion (and it's certainly not something that the majority of people have advocated). 

Many fans want Rondo to be a better jump shooter, but if he's shooting jumpers as poorly as he has, I'm sure the vast majority of people would prefer to see Rondo driving to the hoop, at least putting pressure on the opposing defense and getting the other team into foul trouble.

I mean, seriously, does anybody like the way Rondo has played lately?  Regardless of where he was earlier this year, regardless of his potential, and regardless of the play of the rest of the team, we can all admit that Rondo has largely sucked lately, right?  There may be legitimate reasons for that, but he's just not getting it done on the floor, correct?

[BballTim]

Haha. After roughly 100 billion posts on celticsblog complaining about Rondo passing up open jumpers he starts getting ripped for taking outside shots and not getting to the rim enough. Clearly those outside shots he's taking have affected the number of foul shots he takes and his fg%. Should he take more jump shots *and* more inside shots, taking well more shots than RA/PP/KG in the process?

This argument seems like a bit of a strawman.  There may have been a small number of people complaining about Rondo passing up open jumpers, but it's never been an argument that has gotten significant support, in my opinion (and it's certainly not something that the majority of people have advocated). 

Many fans want Rondo to be a better jump shooter, but if he's shooting jumpers as poorly as he has, I'm sure the vast majority of people would prefer to see Rondo driving to the hoop, at least putting pressure on the opposing defense and getting the other team into foul trouble.

I mean, seriously, does anybody like the way Rondo has played lately?  Regardless of where he was earlier this year, regardless of his potential, and regardless of the play of the rest of the team, we can all admit that Rondo has largely sucked lately, right?  There may be legitimate reasons for that, but he's just not getting it done on the floor, correct?

  Frankly I'm beyond shocked that you'd deny that there has been an absolute plethora of posts about how Rondo passing up open jumpers hurts our offense, or that it's an argument that's never gotten significant support. I might not have read 100 billion posts stating that Rondo needs to take more open jumpers to get defenses to guard him, but 1000 might be a low estimate. It might not be an opinion the majority of the board has advocated, just the majority of people who have voiced an opinion on the subject.

  We can all agree that he's played poorly lately. But that doesn't change the fact that he gets criticized for passing up open jumpers and for not driving to the hoop enough.

[celtics2]

I'm one of Rondo's fans. If he has problems we have bigger problems.
His lack of ability to hit open jumpers is frustrating. If he has problems with his appetite for basketball lets find another team for him to sulk in. Dealing with Delonte is more than enough for our rubber room to handle.

This team needs a good kick in the arse from Doc. Maybe it's just a case of coasting out the season. If not it's time for Doc to end the wake. No one is irreplaceable. If the Big 3 are over, thank em for the job done and pack their bags. We can only milk the cow so much.

Don't laugh but I really think we are stalling till playoff time. We can and do turn it on with regularity when we want to. If not institute the Nuclear Option.

[gar]

Nobody seems to be giving Rondo any slack for the fact that he is trying to integrate one new starter and three key bench players as well as dealing with new rotations to integrate Arroyo and West. Lots of changes + injuries + saving up for the big push.