Perk Replacement in 2012: A Flier

[Greenbean]

Two articles I found interesting on truehoop this morning.

First, Greg Oden has decided to drop a bunch of weight (scroll about 1/3 down the page).

http://www.oregonlive.com/sports/oregonian/john_canzano/index.ssf/2011/02/canzano_blog_emptying_my_noteb_2.html

Second was this article from David Thorpe written after Oden twisted an ankle in his first game back in 2008 (the year after his microfracture).

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/5536/david-thorpe-trouble-signs-for-greg-oden

Thorpe is hit or miss for me but he was quite prophetic stating that unless Oden lost some weight, he would be placing uneccessary strain on his legs and that his legs were probably not built to withstand the abuse.

Well he was spot on. Bill Walton has recently suggested the same thing to Oden and that is a guy I would listen to when it comes to dealing with chronic injuries.

If this works for Oden, he might actually begin to realize some of the once limitless talent he posseses. He might not be the next Shaq if he drops the weight, but maybe the next Mutombo.

I dont think that the Blazers will be willing to give Oden the 8 million dollar qualifying offer meaning he could become an unrestricted free agent.

If that happens, I think Danny and Doc should take a long hard look at Oden. In the short term, he could learn team defense from one of the greatest defenders of all time (KG), and in the long term he could be Perk's replacement as the defensive rock of the team post big 3.

Obviously he has the potential to be better than Perk ever was.

It is also obvious that he has the potential to never play a minute in the NBA again!

If we can get him for short years, do you take the flier on Greg Oden? I say yes.

[Roy H.]

Portland has said that they're likely to extend him an $8.8 million qualifying offer, so I can't see him taking short years / money as a free agent.  To sign him, we'd have to at least offer an MLE deal, I think, and Portland may match that.

[Greenbean]

Portland has said that they're likely to extend him an $8.8 million qualifying offer, so I can't see him taking short years / money as a free agent.  To sign him, we'd have to at least offer an MLE deal, I think, and Portland may match that.

I havent heard that although I trust your input.

Wouldnt they be insane to do so?

I wonder if anything has changed now that Brandon Roy's future isnt so bright. How much money do they want to tie up in guys that are such injury risks?

I was thinking Oden for the Celts because I didnt think any team would be crazy enough to offer anything substantial.

[clover]

Just as Doc's broken Danny of the habit of giving him undersized tweeners, I'd hate to see the old broken-down players replaced with young broken-down players.  I'd take a pass, given what Oden could probably still demand from a team that needs to take a flier.

[Roy H.]

Portland has said that they're likely to extend him an $8.8 million qualifying offer, so I can't see him taking short years / money as a free agent.  To sign him, we'd have to at least offer an MLE deal, I think, and Portland may match that.

I havent heard that although I trust your input.

Wouldnt they be insane to do so?

I wonder if anything has changed now that Brandon Roy's future isnt so bright. How much money do they want to tie up in guys that are such injury risks?

I was thinking Oden for the Celts because I didnt think any team would be crazy enough to offer anything substantial.

A one year, $8.8 million deal is a mistake they can live with, I think.  It's when teams start going multiple years that there becomes an issue.

This is from November, but it talked about Portland's intentions:

Portland Trail Blazers president Larry Miller on Thursday said the franchise has not given up on the oft-injured center, and that he foresees the team making an $8.8 million qualifying offer this summer in order to retain his restricted free agent rights.

"If Greg Oden plays up to his potential he is worth that," Miller said of the $8.8 million qualifying offer. "We will see where (rehabilitation) things are at that level. But at this point, I don't see us not giving the offer if Greg is doing the things we need to see him doing to get back on the court.

[35Lewis]

I'm all for bringing in guys to take fliers on, but when you are bringing in a guy to take a flier on you don't pay him starter or 6th man money.  Oden will get paid based on that potential, look at Kwame Brown.  How many teams paid Kwame based on what he could become only to wakeup with money missing off the dresser and their daughter's knocked up.

I like the idea but I don't think he'll be cheap.

[Greenbean]

Portland has said that they're likely to extend him an $8.8 million qualifying offer, so I can't see him taking short years / money as a free agent.  To sign him, we'd have to at least offer an MLE deal, I think, and Portland may match that.

I havent heard that although I trust your input.

Wouldnt they be insane to do so?

I wonder if anything has changed now that Brandon Roy's future isnt so bright. How much money do they want to tie up in guys that are such injury risks?

I was thinking Oden for the Celts because I didnt think any team would be crazy enough to offer anything substantial.

A one year, $8.8 million deal is a mistake they can live with, I think.  It's when teams start going multiple years that there becomes an issue.

This is from November, but it talked about Portland's intentions:

Portland Trail Blazers president Larry Miller on Thursday said the franchise has not given up on the oft-injured center, and that he foresees the team making an $8.8 million qualifying offer this summer in order to retain his restricted free agent rights.

"If Greg Oden plays up to his potential he is worth that," Miller said of the $8.8 million qualifying offer. "We will see where (rehabilitation) things are at that level. But at this point, I don't see us not giving the offer if Greg is doing the things we need to see him doing to get back on the court.

Thanks Roy. TP.

So basically if Portland doesnt make the offer, we can assume that the doctors that have been closest to him since he entered the league dont think he has recovered from the injuries.

Maybe I would pass given this information.

[lon3lytoaster]

If it were a realistic option, I'd take a flier on the guy. I'd expect Miami might try to take a flier, too, though.

In reality, dude should probably just go to Phoenix, get healthy and play for the next 45 years.

[Celtics4ever]

Problem is he won't get healthy.  He is Sam Bowie the II.  No on Oden!

[Greenbean]

If it were a realistic option, I'd take a flier on the guy. I'd expect Miami might try to take a flier, too, though.

In reality, dude should probably just go to Phoenix, get healthy and play for the next 45 years.

Haha!

I was thinking the same thing.

What do they put in their water there? How many careers ahve they revived? Look at Shaq now and just think that 2 years ago he was the AS game MVP! Grant Hill just dropped 30

We need to pry those trainers away!

[LooseCannon]

It's a gamble and I wouldn't give him more, especially in terms of number of years, than the Celtics gave Jermaine O'Neal (which I think was a reasonable gamble that just hasn't worked out so far).