Danny's strategy (general)

[BballTim]

  You're still ignoring half the story. Ainge didn't just get the cap relief, he got the expiring contract that allowed him to get KG and brought us a title. I don't think I'd trade the last 3 years for Brandon Roy. And who's to say he wouldn't have taken Rondo with the pick?

I don't think so.  We got no immediate cap relief in that deal.  We got out of the cap mess one year earlier.  If we had kept Raef's contract instead of trading it w/#7 for Ratliff's contract (that nobody knew could become part of a KG deal), we would've undoubtedly been in the best position to land Gasol with Raef's by-then-expiring contract, and most likely wouldn't have had to give up as much value to get him. 

The important thing is that Danny valued that one year shorter contract more than a #7 draft pick.

  You basically seem to be saying that since most fans weren't aware that Ainge traded for Theo with an eye towards trading his contract that it never happened. I don't think that's the case.

  I don't know how long you've been on celticsblog or if you frequented similar sites in the past but there was an almost universal assumption that Danny traded Raef for Theo in a money saving maneuver. He was going to let Theo expire and had no intention of trading his expiring contract for a long term max contract player. Ainge was pulverized for an entire year for the trade. When many people reconsider the Raef/Theo trade they do so based on the assumption that Danny couldn't have had the plan that he did because nobody here knew about it.

[BballTim]

I don't think Toine could have led us to a title.  The person above who said he was Miami's 3rd best player is serious misrepresenting how miniscule a role he had in the HEAT's title run.

He didn't defend, had horrible shot selection and shooting percentage.  I will concede he was our best and the only reason to toon in for a few years but to me, that onl illuminates how bad we were.

I agree.  This team was going nowhere when they traded Toine.  We were on the downside of a mediocre arc, and had very few assets to move.  Trading Toine was the right decision.  The problem was, Danny made the wrong trade.  He miscalculated how damaging Raef's contract could be (I wonder if he really thought Raef was going to fully recover from his knee issues?), and it ended up setting them back.  But I was fully on board with trading Toine (who I loved) at the time, and I am fully on board with it now.  He just needed more patience with finding the right deal...kind of like he did by waiting for KG.

I think this is a really great observation.  Perhaps, coming in as a new GM with new owners, there was some eagerness to make a move fairly soon. 

This is one of the things that stood out: in the end, it takes expiring contracts and picks to get talent in a salary dump, and by taking on Raef, sure we had more pieces, but I believe that Raef's deal was longer than Antoine's?  Anybody know if that was true?  I think that, sometime that season, a better deal would've emerged.  He was still a pretty solid player at the time, though easing past his prime.

Yes, Antoine was entering into the last year in his deal (which also prompted the trade, since they did not want to extend him for the amount of money he wanted), and Raef had something like 4 years left.

Wow.  I didn't really remember that (didn't pay that much attention to salary/roster stuff at the time).  I always thought of Antoine as a Celtic, rather than as a contract.  In retrospect, it probably would've been just as well to let his contract expire rather than to make a long term committment on an injured player.

So...would it be accurate to say Danny was afraid of Toine leaving w/o any return in talent/picks/anything?  I imagine his value would've been higher at the trade deadline than it was in October when the trade happened.  Why couldn't Danny wait?

In my personal opinion (no inside info at all), Danny loved Jiri Welsch, and thought he was worth it (or, more accurately, Chris Wallace convinced him he was a keeper).  I also think Danny really thought Raef's knees would get better, and he would end up being a very productive player again.  So, he ignored the risks, and pulled the trigger, hoping he could jumpstart the reloading process.

  I always thought the deal was more to get Raef, which obviously turned out to be a mistake. Look at the team he had. Without going back and checking the roster, his best big man was Baker and he didn't have any good big prospects on the roster. The team was too good to get a top lottery pick to grab such a player and we weren't going to a) suddenly become a desirable location for free agents) or b) have a ton of cap space anyways. How was he ever going to get a decent big? I don't think Raef was seen as permanetly disabled (in a basketball sense) when we traded for him. If he'd come back reasonably healthy he'd have been much better than any other big Danny had a reasonable chance of acquiring.

[More Banners]

  You're still ignoring half the story. Ainge didn't just get the cap relief, he got the expiring contract that allowed him to get KG and brought us a title. I don't think I'd trade the last 3 years for Brandon Roy. And who's to say he wouldn't have taken Rondo with the pick?

I don't think so.  We got no (or very little) immediate cap relief in that deal.  We got out of the big cap mess one year earlier.  If we had kept Raef's contract instead of trading it w/#7 for Ratliff's contract (that nobody knew could become part of a KG deal), we would've undoubtedly been in the best position to land Gasol with Raef's by-then-expiring contract, and most likely wouldn't have had to give up as much value to get him. 

The important thing is that Danny valued that one year shorter contract more than a #7 draft pick.

  You basically seem to be saying that since most fans weren't aware that Ainge traded for Theo with an eye towards trading his contract that it never happened. I don't think that's the case.

  I don't know how long you've been on celticsblog or if you frequented similar sites in the past but there was an almost universal assumption that Danny traded Raef for Theo in a money saving maneuver. He was going to let Theo expire and had no intention of trading his expiring contract for a long term max contract player. Ainge was pulverized for an entire year for the trade. When many people reconsider the Raef/Theo trade they do so based on the assumption that Danny couldn't have had the plan that he did because nobody here knew about it.

Not quite what I mean.  The basic point is that Raef's deal and Theo's deal were pretty much the same, except one was 1 year longer than the other.  The only difference was that Theo's could be cashed in, either for cap relief or traded as an expiring, one year earlier.  Whether he planned to take the savings or flip it isn't really central to the observation that this one year difference was worth a #7 to him.

  

[More Banners]

Well, when I started this thread, I though it'd be cool to do a little look back at what he was trying to do in some of the early deals to get a handle on how he might go about the next reloading effort.  Now, I'm hoping he goes about things quite a bit differently.  It seems he has learned quite a bit and changed how he goes about things.  TP to Mike, as I think the biggest difference will be DA putting a priority on flexibility, which he gave away rather quickly by taking on LaFrenz.  He does seem to value "value" these days.  Will he tolerate a losing season if he doesn't think there is a good value out there?  My guess is he overpays if we have money to spend, but keeps the deals short unless he's signing a centerpiece.

[BballTim]

  You're still ignoring half the story. Ainge didn't just get the cap relief, he got the expiring contract that allowed him to get KG and brought us a title. I don't think I'd trade the last 3 years for Brandon Roy. And who's to say he wouldn't have taken Rondo with the pick?

I don't think so.  We got no (or very little) immediate cap relief in that deal.  We got out of the big cap mess one year earlier.  If we had kept Raef's contract instead of trading it w/#7 for Ratliff's contract (that nobody knew could become part of a KG deal), we would've undoubtedly been in the best position to land Gasol with Raef's by-then-expiring contract, and most likely wouldn't have had to give up as much value to get him. 

The important thing is that Danny valued that one year shorter contract more than a #7 draft pick.

  You basically seem to be saying that since most fans weren't aware that Ainge traded for Theo with an eye towards trading his contract that it never happened. I don't think that's the case.

  I don't know how long you've been on celticsblog or if you frequented similar sites in the past but there was an almost universal assumption that Danny traded Raef for Theo in a money saving maneuver. He was going to let Theo expire and had no intention of trading his expiring contract for a long term max contract player. Ainge was pulverized for an entire year for the trade. When many people reconsider the Raef/Theo trade they do so based on the assumption that Danny couldn't have had the plan that he did because nobody here knew about it.

Not quite what I mean.  The basic point is that Raef's deal and Theo's deal were pretty much the same, except one was 1 year longer than the other.  The only difference was that Theo's could be cashed in, either for cap relief or traded as an expiring, one year earlier.  Whether he planned to take the savings or flip it isn't really central to the observation that this one year difference was worth a #7 to him.

  

  I don't disagree with this in general, just in the characterization that he made the trade for a slight difference in contracts. It's kind of like saying that there's only a slight difference in having the 1st or 2nd pick in the draft. Slight difference, but large difference.

[Chris]

  You're still ignoring half the story. Ainge didn't just get the cap relief, he got the expiring contract that allowed him to get KG and brought us a title. I don't think I'd trade the last 3 years for Brandon Roy. And who's to say he wouldn't have taken Rondo with the pick?

I don't think so.  We got no (or very little) immediate cap relief in that deal.  We got out of the big cap mess one year earlier.  If we had kept Raef's contract instead of trading it w/#7 for Ratliff's contract (that nobody knew could become part of a KG deal), we would've undoubtedly been in the best position to land Gasol with Raef's by-then-expiring contract, and most likely wouldn't have had to give up as much value to get him. 

The important thing is that Danny valued that one year shorter contract more than a #7 draft pick.

  You basically seem to be saying that since most fans weren't aware that Ainge traded for Theo with an eye towards trading his contract that it never happened. I don't think that's the case.

  I don't know how long you've been on celticsblog or if you frequented similar sites in the past but there was an almost universal assumption that Danny traded Raef for Theo in a money saving maneuver. He was going to let Theo expire and had no intention of trading his expiring contract for a long term max contract player. Ainge was pulverized for an entire year for the trade. When many people reconsider the Raef/Theo trade they do so based on the assumption that Danny couldn't have had the plan that he did because nobody here knew about it.

Not quite what I mean.  The basic point is that Raef's deal and Theo's deal were pretty much the same, except one was 1 year longer than the other.  The only difference was that Theo's could be cashed in, either for cap relief or traded as an expiring, one year earlier.  Whether he planned to take the savings or flip it isn't really central to the observation that this one year difference was worth a #7 to him.

  

  I don't disagree with this in general, just in the characterization that he made the trade for a slight difference in contracts. It's kind of like saying that there's only a slight difference in having the 1st or 2nd pick in the draft. Slight difference, but large difference.

It is the difference between getting KG and winning a championship, and well...not. 

I think Danny very well knew that KG and Pau were going to be on the block that year, as well as Iverson, and he knew that the only way they could be a player for those guys, he needed the expiring contract, and not one with 2 years left.  It was a huge risk, but it was a calculated risk. 

But I also think he did not see value at that draft spot.  He had no interest in Roy and his knees, and the guy he wanted (Foye) was going to be taken a pick in front of him by the Wolves.  So, he had the choice of reaching with that pick, or using it to obtain an immensely valuable asset in his search for a veteran star to put next to Pierce.

[erisred]

I don't think Toine could have led us to a title.  The person above who said he was Miami's 3rd best player is serious misrepresenting how miniscule a role he had in the HEAT's title run.

He didn't defend, had horrible shot selection and shooting percentage.  I will concede he was our best and the only reason to toon in for a few years but to me, that onl illuminates how bad we were.

I agree.  This team was going nowhere when they traded Toine.  We were on the downside of a mediocre arc, and had very few assets to move.  Trading Toine was the right decision.  The problem was, Danny made the wrong trade.  He miscalculated how damaging Raef's contract could be (I wonder if he really thought Raef was going to fully recover from his knee issues?), and it ended up setting them back.  But I was fully on board with trading Toine (who I loved) at the time, and I am fully on board with it now.  He just needed more patience with finding the right deal...kind of like he did by waiting for KG.

I've always felt that Walker kind of forced Danny's hand with his comments made at the casino that summer. Danny, could have been ownership behind the scenes, wanted Antoine *out* and out quickly. 

I think Danny believed he could "salvage" Pierce and use him as the center piece of the "big three" he was already talking about that summer. Walker was not capable of being one of the "big three" and he had too much influence on the current squad...on Pierce...so Danny got him out of town for the first half-way reasonable deal he could. Bringing him back later wasn't an admission he was wrong in the first place either.

Once Danny started down the rebuilding road, he started clearing the older players and...indirectly...pressuring Jim O'Brien to resign. From that point, the C's had to hit bottom before they could come back up.

I don't know if this was Danny's plan from the beginning, but it could have been a reasonable facsimile of it.

[Meadowlark_Scal]

Well, whatever he did b4 was good, great....but just like a basketball game, no one cares what you did yesterday..what is he doing now..? Losing TA was......not too bright..a proven contributor, and defender of the likes of lebron and wade..now gone...for chump change...not even a trade..just lost him...so...i hope he was something up his sleeve now......sheed hurting us too...danny better put on a few extra shirts there.....!

[mikemj]

Really interesting discussion.

One argument against the master plan theory: if a big part of the plan was to create a 24 win team to get a top draft pick, why did this take 4 years? Why muddle around for the 3 years beforehand, getting stuck with Raef's contract in the process?

The only "master" part of the plan I believe was true all along was to build up the next championship contender in a 3-5 year window. Beyond that, Pierce is too old and Danny probably gets fired anyway.

So on the team he inherited, Danny sees Pierce and maybe Blount as the only pieces that can contribute in that next window. To get other pieces, he can either tank to get top draft picks or try to rebuild on the fly with high upside, undervalued players like HS draft picks and Ricky Davis.

After a couple years, Danny realizes he still doesn't have enough elite pieces and eventually changes course to tank for Oden/Durant. When that doesn't work out, he changes course yet again and trades his chips for the Big 3.

With this kind of rebuilding process, you can't totally predict the results of individual moves. So you throw a bunch of stuff up against the wall while retaining flexibility. After seeing what sticks, you figure how best to develop your collection of pieces into a team.

[LooseCannon]

After a couple years, Danny realizes he still doesn't have enough elite pieces and eventually changes course to tank for Oden/Durant.

Or there wasn't talent as good as Oden/Durant in previous years to justify tanking so hard.