Is it smarter to rest the Big Three(not tank) for the rest the regular season ?

[RAcker]

I change the title

Is that better

That IS better...and while I agree that we need to work in rest for our older guys that have to play big minutes in the playoffs, we still only play 1/2 a game in terms of effort and if our chemistry and consistensy don't improve, rest won't matter.  We can't just expect to magically turn it on when the playoffs start.

TP for the title change though.

[Chris]

Better thread title...I still don't agree with it though.  I am all for cutting their minutes a little bit (which Doc has done the last couple years anyways).  However, if this team wants any chance to make noise in the playoffs, they need to be hitting on all cylinders going into the playoffs.

I think the goal for the rest of the season should be to try to regain their swagger and chemistry without running anyone into the ground.  If guys get injured, they get injured.  It is unavoidable, and resting guys won't make a difference with that. But in order to keep things going in the right direction, guys shouldn't be sitting down to much.  They need to be out on the floor together, trying to piece it together again.

[JSD]

Resting Paul and KG is imperative at this point because if they can't be around 90 to a 100 percent come playoff time then we don't have a shot in hell regardless of seeding.

[PLamb]

Do we have to call it tanking? Can't we just say "Let's rest our starters and get them 100% for the playoffs"

Okay...

I like that

Let's....ummmm....rest our aging beat up starters until say April 4th and then let them play the final 6 games of the regular season as a way to get back in shape for the playoffs

Those last 6 games will be against

New York
Toronto
Washington
Milwaukee
Chicago
Milwaukee

I nice little stretch of games to get back into shape during and then make a run during the playoffs with a rested healthy team

Who cares if we are the 3rd seed or the 7th or 8th seed

But going forward it will make a huge difference if we are picking 15th-20th in the draft or 25th-30th

Last 20 years the amount of All-Stars chosen between 15 and 20 is 11 or 9.1% chance of selecting an All-Star

Danny Granger
David West
Zach Randolph
Jamaal Magliore
Ron Artest
Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Jermaine O'Neal
Steve Nash
Theo Ratliff
Chris Gatling

Last 20 years the amount of All-Stars chosen between 25 and 30 is 4 or 3.3% chance of selecting an All-Star

David Lee
Gerald Wallace
Tony Parker
Josh Howard

It's almost 3 times more likely that you will choose an All-Star in the 15-20 position in the draft as it is that you will pick one in the 25-30 position


For....ummm....resting some older, injured, banged up veterans for a possible healthier run at a championship it's not to bad that a side effect of such....rest....would be a nearly 300% better chance at landing an All-Star in a very deep draft

I can guarantee you though if the Celtics decide to rest starters, their motivation will not be getting a higher draft pick.

Its also kind of funny that I would want the four guys you listed that were picked 25-30 than any of the 11 guys you listed that were picked 15-20.

Bottom line is that the draft is a crap shoot outside of the top 10. We need some Celtics luck to draft our next all star. I dont want to mess that up wih any tanking. It's bad karma.

I understand your side of the argument I just dont think your stats back up your argument as much as you think they do.

Of course you would rather have the four guys than the 11 guys because they are all younger and playing at a current higher level NOW

Nice short term memory there

But long term from the start of their careers to the end

I would take:

Jermaine O'Neal over David Lee
Steve Nash over Tony Parker
Danny Granger over Josh Howard
Ron Artest over Gerald Wallace


The quality of player at that end of the draft is just better for the most part

[Chris]

Resting Paul and KG is imperative at this point because if they can't be around 90 to a 100 percent come playoff time then we don't have a shot in hell regardless of seeding.

What do you mean by resting KG?  Do you mean playing him fewer minutes, or having him sitting out games?

Because I think he is still getting stronger, and sitting out games will not help him. 

Pierce on the other hand is injured, so until he is healthy, i agree that he should be sitting out.

[PLamb]

Better thread title...I still don't agree with it though.  I am all for cutting their minutes a little bit (which Doc has done the last couple years anyways).  However, if this team wants any chance to make noise in the playoffs, they need to be hitting on all cylinders going into the playoffs.

I think the goal for the rest of the season should be to try to regain their swagger and chemistry without running anyone into the ground.  If guys get injured, they get injured.  It is unavoidable, and resting guys won't make a difference with that. But in order to keep things going in the right direction, guys shouldn't be sitting down to much.  They need to be out on the floor together, trying to piece it together again.

Here's the thing though Chris

I don't think I am giving up hope with this team I just think I'm being realistic about the chances of two 32+ year old players getting 100% healthy while playing hurt, which is what is happening now and what people are advocating

Without a 100% healthy KG and Pierce our chances of winning a title may as well be pulled off the board in Vegas the chances are so low

But if we pull them until they are 100% healthy the argument is they won't be ready chemistry and effectiveness wise going into the playoffs so we won't stand a chance of winning

So between the two choices well rested and healthy but out of sync players playing for a championship or tired, hurting but in better sync players playing for a championship, the question becomes, which would you rather have

Given their record versus the best teams this year and given the performance level as a known entity already(that being the tired, hurting but in better sync players) I, at this time would opt for the other choice because I know this one isn't working and won't

A -4.5 point differential versus teams with a .600 record or better is just disturbing to me

That is huge and in any matrix you put that number for possible future success, the results you get are not going to be good

[Timdawgg]

It is so frustrating reading these posts. I try not to, but I have to read everything. The Celtics have played 0 games as a full HEALTHY team together. 1 game all together but they were not all healthy. Now they may never be healthy but if they do, give them 10 games in a row to see what happens. At this point I would consider everyone healthy minus Pierce. KG was just working his way back to normal that game before the All-star break and Pierce was still banged up in that game.

Yes it is frustrating seeing the C's execute like we all hoped they would for a half and then fade in the second half. I still think it is a mental hurdle that they will get over. It may linger all the way up to the playoffs. If that happens that is like playing with fire but I fully expect the C's to roll once they get to the playoffs assuming they are fairly healthy. I swear half the posters here are bi-polar. One game people are saying that they will win it all and after one loss we need to tank.

[Chris]

Better thread title...I still don't agree with it though.  I am all for cutting their minutes a little bit (which Doc has done the last couple years anyways).  However, if this team wants any chance to make noise in the playoffs, they need to be hitting on all cylinders going into the playoffs.

I think the goal for the rest of the season should be to try to regain their swagger and chemistry without running anyone into the ground.  If guys get injured, they get injured.  It is unavoidable, and resting guys won't make a difference with that. But in order to keep things going in the right direction, guys shouldn't be sitting down to much.  They need to be out on the floor together, trying to piece it together again.

Here's the thing though Chris

I don't think I am giving up hope with this team I just think I'm being realistic about the chances of two 32+ year old players getting 100% healthy while playing hurt, which is what is happening now and what people are advocating

Without a 100% healthy KG and Pierce our chances of winning a title may as well be pulled off the board in Vegas the chances are so low

But if we pull them until they are 100% healthy the argument is they won't be ready chemistry and effectiveness wise going into the playoffs so we won't stand a chance of winning

So between the two choices well rested and healthy but out of sync players playing for a championship or tired, hurting but in better sync players playing for a championship, the question becomes, which would you rather have

Given their record versus the best teams this year and given the performance level as a known entity already(that being the tired, hurting but in better sync players) I, at this time would opt for the other choice because I know this one isn't working and won't

A -4.5 point differential versus teams with a .600 record or better is just disturbing to me

That is huge and in any matrix you put that number for possible future success, the results you get are not going to be good

Well, I am not advocating playing injured players.  Like I said in my other post, sit Pierce until he is healthy.

However, I do not think KG is hurt.  I think he is recovered, and is currently trying to regain his strength and his conditioning.  And unfortunately, that is not going to happen by sitting on the sideline.  KG needs to play.

If guys are hurt, then yes, let them get healthy.  But that is not "rest", that is getting healthy.  If guys are healthy (like KG and Ray are now), then their rest should be minimal, and within the game.

[PLamb]

Better thread title...I still don't agree with it though.  I am all for cutting their minutes a little bit (which Doc has done the last couple years anyways).  However, if this team wants any chance to make noise in the playoffs, they need to be hitting on all cylinders going into the playoffs.

I think the goal for the rest of the season should be to try to regain their swagger and chemistry without running anyone into the ground.  If guys get injured, they get injured.  It is unavoidable, and resting guys won't make a difference with that. But in order to keep things going in the right direction, guys shouldn't be sitting down to much.  They need to be out on the floor together, trying to piece it together again.

Here's the thing though Chris

I don't think I am giving up hope with this team I just think I'm being realistic about the chances of two 32+ year old players getting 100% healthy while playing hurt, which is what is happening now and what people are advocating

Without a 100% healthy KG and Pierce our chances of winning a title may as well be pulled off the board in Vegas the chances are so low

But if we pull them until they are 100% healthy the argument is they won't be ready chemistry and effectiveness wise going into the playoffs so we won't stand a chance of winning

So between the two choices well rested and healthy but out of sync players playing for a championship or tired, hurting but in better sync players playing for a championship, the question becomes, which would you rather have

Given their record versus the best teams this year and given the performance level as a known entity already(that being the tired, hurting but in better sync players) I, at this time would opt for the other choice because I know this one isn't working and won't

A -4.5 point differential versus teams with a .600 record or better is just disturbing to me

That is huge and in any matrix you put that number for possible future success, the results you get are not going to be good

Well, I am not advocating playing injured players.  Like I said in my other post, sit Pierce until he is healthy.

However, I do not think KG is hurt.  I think he is recovered, and is currently trying to regain his strength and his conditioning.  And unfortunately, that is not going to happen by sitting on the sideline.  KG needs to play.

If guys are hurt, then yes, let them get healthy.  But that is not "rest", that is getting healthy.  If guys are healthy (like KG and Ray are now), then their rest should be minimal, and within the game.

I respectfully disagree with KG

I think he's not near 100% and that him trying to play through it and rehab and get better during games is causing a stagnation of the healing process

I'm no doctor and unfortunately, no one on this blog will ever see the medical reports on KG but he just isn't running, moving laterally, elevating or exploding on his first step anywhere near like he was in December 2008 and many games seems to be dragging his leg or limping

Playing him, IMHO, is not going to get him better

[MBz]

It is so frustrating reading these posts. I try not to, but I have to read everything. The Celtics have played 0 games as a full HEALTHY team together. 1 game all together but they were not all healthy. Now they may never be healthy but if they do, give them 10 games in a row to see what happens. At this point I would consider everyone healthy minus Pierce. KG was just working his way back to normal that game before the All-star break and Pierce was still banged up in that game.

Yes it is frustrating seeing the C's execute like we all hoped they would for a half and then fade in the second half. I still think it is a mental hurdle that they will get over. It may linger all the way up to the playoffs. If that happens that is like playing with fire but I fully expect the C's to roll once they get to the playoffs assuming they are fairly healthy. I swear half the posters here are bi-polar. One game people are saying that they will win it all and after one loss we need to tank.

I'm tired of the health excuse, I don't think we can say that since players aren't playing as well as they should be that they aren't healthy.  I just think these players have declined.  KG isn't the same player it's that simple.

[Drucci]

Have to respectfully disagree with you Drucci

This team is NOT winning a championship this year

KG is NOT looking better game by game

There IS a MAJOR need for high draft picks

And we would NOT be stupid by stopping to compete now because those teams you want to try and beat out for a higher playoff seed have DOMINATED us no matter where we have played them

By dominated, you mean, getting dominated by the C's for a half before coming back and winning it?

Do you mean Atlanta "dominated us" when they played us 3 times without KG and 1 time without KG AND Sheed, yet won the game thanks to the refs?

Please. The Celtics certainly don't look like the favorites overall and they've disappointed all season long but you're jumping the bridge a little bit too far.

And KG is looking better and better game after game, that's a fact, you can't deny it. Sure, he will never be the '08 KG again but he is more and more like the '09 Late november/December KG and that will be enough in order to win the championship this season.

And it's totally useless to "tank" at this point because you won't get a LeBron James like talent in this draft, especially with our picks (even if we tank), so it would be totally pointless. Our future looks bad, I agree with that, but I still see this team as a championship contender this season, and the facts are here to support my belief.

I think there's just as many facts to support my belief

Record versus teams with a .600 record or better, teams you need to beat in the playoffs to win a championship

Cleveland 1-1
Lakers 1-1
Orlando 1-3
Denver 0-1
Utah 1-0
Atlanta 0-4
Dallas 0-1
Phoenix 0-2

Total: 4-13 for a winning percentage of .235

In those games they have been outscored 1565 to 1642 or lost the average game 96.5 to 92

A point differential of -4.5 in games they play against the best teams in the league

That is not the sign of a championship contender

And do I need to explain that the Celtics up until early in the season had a record of winning something like 60 straight games in which if they lead by any point in that game by double digits they won the game only to now have lost, what is it now 12 games or 13 games, where they once had a double digit lead

Ominous signs for a supposed championship contender

Injuries or no, bad refs or no, this is no longer a championship team and great players can be found in the middle of a draft, even cornerstone franchise players

Tank the regular season, that's what I say

You really think Phoenix, Dallas and Utah are title contenders? If you think so, then the Celtics should be favorites to win the championship if we follow your logic.

Lakers are 0-4 against Cavs and Nuggets, do you think it means they are not the favorites either to win the title and can't contend at all?

From all the records you brought, we played many of them without one or two starters, and our record against Phoenix, Utah and Dallas is unsignificant, so your stats are flawed anyway because you want to make us worse than we really are.

Seeing that we got big leads in almost all these games to finally lose doesn't make these losses easier (it makes them harder actually) but you can't take the bad without the good and vice versa.

This team has still the same roster than a few months ago, a roster that went 23-5, now improved and on the verge of being 100% healty. It's as simple as that, when you have as much talent as the Celtics have, whatever their regular season records are, I expect them to do big things in the playoffs because this is where talent and defense ultimately prevail, two elements that we have and that we master pretty well.

[PLamb]

Have to respectfully disagree with you Drucci

This team is NOT winning a championship this year

KG is NOT looking better game by game

There IS a MAJOR need for high draft picks

And we would NOT be stupid by stopping to compete now because those teams you want to try and beat out for a higher playoff seed have DOMINATED us no matter where we have played them

By dominated, you mean, getting dominated by the C's for a half before coming back and winning it?

Do you mean Atlanta "dominated us" when they played us 3 times without KG and 1 time without KG AND Sheed, yet won the game thanks to the refs?

Please. The Celtics certainly don't look like the favorites overall and they've disappointed all season long but you're jumping the bridge a little bit too far.

And KG is looking better and better game after game, that's a fact, you can't deny it. Sure, he will never be the '08 KG again but he is more and more like the '09 Late november/December KG and that will be enough in order to win the championship this season.

And it's totally useless to "tank" at this point because you won't get a LeBron James like talent in this draft, especially with our picks (even if we tank), so it would be totally pointless. Our future looks bad, I agree with that, but I still see this team as a championship contender this season, and the facts are here to support my belief.

I think there's just as many facts to support my belief

Record versus teams with a .600 record or better, teams you need to beat in the playoffs to win a championship

Cleveland 1-1
Lakers 1-1
Orlando 1-3
Denver 0-1
Utah 1-0
Atlanta 0-4
Dallas 0-1
Phoenix 0-2

Total: 4-13 for a winning percentage of .235

In those games they have been outscored 1565 to 1642 or lost the average game 96.5 to 92

A point differential of -4.5 in games they play against the best teams in the league

That is not the sign of a championship contender

And do I need to explain that the Celtics up until early in the season had a record of winning something like 60 straight games in which if they lead by any point in that game by double digits they won the game only to now have lost, what is it now 12 games or 13 games, where they once had a double digit lead

Ominous signs for a supposed championship contender

Injuries or no, bad refs or no, this is no longer a championship team and great players can be found in the middle of a draft, even cornerstone franchise players

Tank the regular season, that's what I say

You really think Phoenix, Dallas and Utah are title contenders? If you think so, then the Celtics should be favorites to win the championship if we follow your logic.

Lakers are 0-4 against Cavs and Nuggets, do you think it means they are not the favorites either to win the title and can't contend at all?

From all the records you brought, we played many of them without one or two starters, and our record against Phoenix, Utah and Dallas is unsignificant, so your stats are flawed anyway because you want to make us worse than we really are.

Seeing that we got big leads in almost all these games to finally lose doesn't make these losses easier (it makes them harder actually) but you can't take the bad without the good and vice versa.

This team has still the same roster than a few months ago, a roster that went 23-5, now improved and on the verge of being 100% healty. It's as simple as that, when you have as much talent as the Celtics have, whatever their regular season records are, I expect them to do big things in the playoffs because this is where talent and defense ultimately prevail, two elements that we have and that we master pretty well.

That 23-5 record  consisted of exactly 7 games against teams that currently place them in the top third of the league record wise

By all accounts, it was the easiest part of their schedule

Since then they are 13-15, coincidentally also 28 games

They have played 12 games against the top third of the schedule

Besides the injuries, the competition has been decidedly tougher and time and again they have come up empty

Old hurt talent does not tend to get healthier and return to old performances levels when playing through injuries they tend to take a long term toll on old hurt talent and that talent never returns to their aforementioned levels

It's called age and it's time we as Celtic fans adjust our expectations

We are pinning out hopes on a soon to be 35 year old shooting guard(and we all know the history of 35 year old SGs, it's not pretty), a 32 year old small forward who has thumb, knee and mid foot problems, a 33 year old power forward with over 41000 minutes of playing time on a knee that he injured 13 months ago and is still not right and a 35 year old out of shape, outside chucking, loud mouth PF/C that has shown signs of a very deteriorated game and lack of energy

Things aren't going to get better when these guys get hurt

It takes off time to get better just so that they can return at a percentage of their former selves

Not a one of them will ever be as good as they were in 2007-08 or in early season 2008-09 or in early season 2009-10 ever again

[DrGlen]

Regardless, it's a moot point, as neither the players nor management would allow tanking here.  Strategic rest heading into the playoffs, sure.  Losing on purpose, no.

Is the 3rd qtr the strategic rest period of each game?