The fact that Danny failed to give Posey a 4 year deal a year ago does not mean he would not take him back now. First, a year has been used up, so there is only 3 years left. Second, with a little truth syrum, my guess is that Danny regrets not having met Posey's extra year, although KG's injury made that less of an issue. Third, management has been prety clear that luxury tax is not a driving issue for them, as they know their time to strike the iron is for the next two seasons, after which, let's face it, the wheels fall off. I still think Posey makes alot of sense for us, and would be great playing with Rasheed.
Posey's getting older and his play will decline. If you look at his play over the 4 years his best year is probably gone. Also, his pay increases each year and the least expensive year is gone. Compared to last year the average price per year over the remaining contract is higher and the average contribution per year over the remaining contract is lower. It's a worse deal now than it was when Ainge passed on it last year.
Agree with Tim. I wish we would have paid him last year, but we didn't, and it is a worse deal now. The problem then was increasing costs for diminishing returns over too many years. Chances are, they valued him in Year One (last season) above his contract price, in Year Two (this season) at about his contract price, Year Three (next) below his contract price and Year Four (2011-12) way below his contract price. So they were willing to do 3 years on the theory it evens out - i.e., Year 1 pays for the loss of value in Year 3, when he's also an expiring contract. Adding that 4th year killed it. Now, you don't get the bonus of the first year to make up for the losses in the third and fourth years. So it's a worse contract.
Look, I'd personally do it because I love Posey irrationally - an oddity because I try to stay extremely rational - but it's clear Ainge is just being rational. And being rational will tell you the deal is now worse than it was before.
Again, I'd still do it.