My prediction on who Wyc and Danny are targeting: Marion

[paintitgreen]

Agreed, Diop's not worth much of anything. That's why Wallace would be such a bargain - guys that are big enough to play the 5 get overpaid. Sheed is big enough for the 5, and agile enough for the 4. To get him for the same price someone is paying Diop? How can that not be considered a bargain.

While Marion, IF he would take the money and IF he would happy in a bench role, would be a bargain for that money, too, I just think the difference between him and the wings you can get for less money is a lot less than the difference between Sheed and the bigs you can get for less money.

On the Andre Miller thing - NOBODY is giving him $10 mil a year. One intriguing spot he could land for about $6-7 mil a year is Portland - they need a point guard and veteran leadership. He'd be a pretty nice fit up there, particularly since they play a slow game that would suit Miller. But only a few teams will actually have money below the cap -
Detroit (around $18.5)
Atlanta ($14)
Memphis ($14)
Oklahoma City ($14)
Toronto ($9)
Portland ($8.5)
Sacramento ($7.5)

Detroit will not be paying big money to a point guard - they'll look at Gordon, maybe Turkoglu, maybe Odom, guys like that but not Miller. Atlanta will probably spend its money to keep Marvin Williams and Pachulia. Memphis is a wild card but with Conley and OJ Mayo, I just don't see them targeting an old point guard. Same with Oklahoma City and its young group. Toronto has Calderon. Sacramento doesn't need old guys. Portland is the only team that could give more than the MLE.

Looking at that list, it just seems that almost all free agents are gonna have to stay where they are or settle for the midlevel. It's a buyer's market.  


So returning to Marion again, he will only get anything above the midlevel from TOronto. Otherwise we're in about as good a position as any other team, except maybe Cleveland or Orlando if Turkoglu leaves, which could potentially offer him a starting spot. But in those places, he'll still be a low-level offensive option. As much as I had said before that Marion wouldn't take a supporting role, nobody's gonna wnt him in anything but a supporting role.

I still would prefer Sheed but it seems more a realistic policy. And I also agree our strategy should be to talk immediately to Wallace, Artest, Marion and that caliber of free agent and move on quickly if they're not willing to commit early. Can't be left holding the bag in a buyer's market like this year. 

[Jeff]

it occurs to me that it could very well be as much about the years as it is about how much above or below the MLE a top free agent gets

(see Posey, James)

I'm sure Ainge is willing to give any number of guys the full MLE for a year or even 2 years, but is he willing to go 3, 4, or 5 years?

[timepiece33]

Saying Matt Barnes is a good defender is big time overstatement.  The guy is a tweener defender that is neither effective against PF's or SF's.   I'm fine with him as a backup, but accept that his limitations to our defensive team would be pretty prevalent.

[feckless]

Isn't Marion more of a malcontent than Sheed.  I was sure that when Phoenix traded him it was because he was upset at the lack of acclaim he received --because even though his stats were great Amare and Nash got all the credit and Marion was a locker room whiner/cancer??  Am I wrong?  Miami sure got rid of him quickly.

[wdleehi]

Isn't Marion more of a malcontent than Sheed.  I was sure that when Phoenix traded him it was because he was upset at the lack of acclaim he received --because even though his stats were great Amare and Nash got all the credit and Marion was a locker room whiner/cancer??  Am I wrong?  Miami sure got rid of him quickly.

That's what I worry about.

[paintitgreen]

Yeah, as I thought more about it (addressed in a post on another topic), that definitely is what bothers me. Less than 2 years ago he was disrupting a winning team because he felt he didn't get enough credit or attention. He'll take the MLE, because that's all he'll be offered unless he gets something more from Toronto, and wherever he goes he'll be a fourth or fifth option, whether as a starter or off the bench, but that attitude, I just worry about. At least with Artest and Rasheed, you don't really question their desire to win - Marion's attitude and actions indicate that not only is he selfish, but he doesn't really care about winning.

[ssspence]

Isn't Marion more of a malcontent than Sheed.  I was sure that when Phoenix traded him it was because he was upset at the lack of acclaim he received --because even though his stats were great Amare and Nash got all the credit and Marion was a locker room whiner/cancer??  Am I wrong?  Miami sure got rid of him quickly.

That's what I worry about.

2 things here:

1) When Marion was making 18mil a year, he wanted a chance to prove he could be a go to guy. He got that chance and it's clear now he's not. Is he really going to be complaining on his next team about not being a big enough star next to Garnett and Pierce while they play for a championship? No one heard a peep out of the guy for the first 8 years of his career..

2) Miami wants to compete in the FA class of 2010. So, a) they didn't want to keep and then sign Marion this off-season, and b) they got a useful player for him at a position of need who expires in 2010. They couldn't just go into the tank after Marion expired as they need to convince Wade to stay. And they didn't want to keep Shaq as he was trashing the locker room with his games. They played it perfectly in keeping it Wade's team while maintaining a competitive team moving into 2010. My point is: Marion wasn't a problem in Miami. It doesn't seem like he was in Toronto either.

[wdleehi]

Isn't Marion more of a malcontent than Sheed.  I was sure that when Phoenix traded him it was because he was upset at the lack of acclaim he received --because even though his stats were great Amare and Nash got all the credit and Marion was a locker room whiner/cancer??  Am I wrong?  Miami sure got rid of him quickly.

That's what I worry about.

2 things here:

1) When Marion was making 18mil a year, he wanted a chance to prove he could be a go to guy. He got that chance and it's clear now he's not. Is he really going to be complaining on his next team about not being a big enough star next to Garnett and Pierce while they play for a championship? No one heard a peep out of the guy for the first 8 years of his career..

2) Miami wants to compete in the FA class of 2010. So, a) they didn't want to keep and then sign Marion this off-season, and b) they got a sueful player for him at a position of need who expires in 2010. They couldn't just go into the tank after Marion expired as they need to convince Wade to stay. And they didn't want to keep Shaq as he was trashing the locker room with his games. They played it perfectly in keeoing it Wade's team while maintaining a competitive team moving into 2010. My point is: Marion wasn't a problem in Miami. It doesn't seem like he was in Toronto either.

No, Marion wasn't the problem. 

He wasn't that good either. 

[Jon]

The only potential problem with Marion is that he's not a center.  While I know that's obvious, if we signed him we'd still have to go out a sign a decent 7-footer to back up Perk, unless the plan is to bring in Marion and bring back Davis, and basically use KG to backup Perk (meaning that when Perk goes out, KG slides to the 5). 

The advantage to a guy like Sheed is that we'd cover our bases at the 4 and 5 spots.  Then we'd have to address the 2/3 spots with the LLE.  And that could backfire.  But while I don't relish the idea of going into next season with the TA/Walker/Giddens trio backing up PP and Allen, I'd take that over going into next season with no clear-cut backup for Perk. 

[ssspence]

Isn't Marion more of a malcontent than Sheed.  I was sure that when Phoenix traded him it was because he was upset at the lack of acclaim he received --because even though his stats were great Amare and Nash got all the credit and Marion was a locker room whiner/cancer??  Am I wrong?  Miami sure got rid of him quickly.

That's what I worry about.

2 things here:

1) When Marion was making 18mil a year, he wanted a chance to prove he could be a go to guy. He got that chance and it's clear now he's not. Is he really going to be complaining on his next team about not being a big enough star next to Garnett and Pierce while they play for a championship? No one heard a peep out of the guy for the first 8 years of his career..

2) Miami wants to compete in the FA class of 2010. So, a) they didn't want to keep and then sign Marion this off-season, and b) they got a sueful player for him at a position of need who expires in 2010. They couldn't just go into the tank after Marion expired as they need to convince Wade to stay. And they didn't want to keep Shaq as he was trashing the locker room with his games. They played it perfectly in keeoing it Wade's team while maintaining a competitive team moving into 2010. My point is: Marion wasn't a problem in Miami. It doesn't seem like he was in Toronto either.

No, Marion wasn't the problem. 

He wasn't that good either. 

true. could make him affordable to us.

[feckless]

Isn't Marion more of a malcontent than Sheed.  I was sure that when Phoenix traded him it was because he was upset at the lack of acclaim he received --because even though his stats were great Amare and Nash got all the credit and Marion was a locker room whiner/cancer??  Am I wrong?  Miami sure got rid of him quickly.

That's what I worry about.

2 things here:

1) When Marion was making 18mil a year, he wanted a chance to prove he could be a go to guy. He got that chance and it's clear now he's not. Is he really going to be complaining on his next team about not being a big enough star next to Garnett and Pierce while they play for a championship? No one heard a peep out of the guy for the first 8 years of his career..

2) Miami wants to compete in the FA class of 2010. So, a) they didn't want to keep and then sign Marion this off-season, and b) they got a sueful player for him at a position of need who expires in 2010. They couldn't just go into the tank after Marion expired as they need to convince Wade to stay. And they didn't want to keep Shaq as he was trashing the locker room with his games. They played it perfectly in keeoing it Wade's team while maintaining a competitive team moving into 2010. My point is: Marion wasn't a problem in Miami. It doesn't seem like he was in Toronto either.

No, Marion wasn't the problem. 

He wasn't that good either. 

true. could make him affordable to us.

Pretty risky to bring in a whiner who doesn't like taking a back seat and having him play a secondary role behind the big 3.  That is why James Posey's personality worked --Marion is a huge risk because of his attitude in Phoenix -- I think even more so than Sheed--who despite being  hot tempered appears to be a good teammate.  We also know that Sheed and KG have a relationship--is Marion friendly with any of the big 3?

[Mr October]

i bet the last year or so of bouncing around on bad teams has sobered Marion. I think he just wants to have fun again, be on a winner. i really doubt he gives a crap about being a go to guy anymore. He couldn't even be a secondary go to guy. What he is, is a really really good glue guy - ultimate garbage scorer, excellent defender.

He is not someone you build a contender around. So I doubt he'd be targeted by the super young rebuilders with cap space. Plus you have the economic pressure and 2010 pressure.... I really think someone is going to pull a diamond for the MLE with Marion this summer.