Poll: Which of the Big 3 will show the most decline next season?

[nickagneta]

Ray. 


He is older, an age most SGs decline fast.

Bang!!!

Right on the mark!!!

Ray has reached that age where shooting guards, no matter how great, seem to have serious drop offs in their games or major leg problems occur. Reggie Miller and Michael Jordan are exceptions to the rule for SGs at the age of 34-35 and older. Ray could be like them but the smart money is on him falling off fast.

[wdleehi]

Ray. 


He is older, an age most SGs decline fast.

Bang!!!

Right on the mark!!!

Ray has reached that age where shooting guards, no matter how great, seem to have serious drop offs in their games or major leg problems occur. Reggie Miller and Michael Jordan are exceptions to the rule for SGs at the age of 34-35 and older. Ray could be like them but the smart money is on him falling off fast.

And Miller started is drop at 36, not 39.

[snively]

Ray looked great last season.  He's not much of a threat to drive anymore, but he's still deadly off screen, in transition and out of kick outs.  His game is tailor-made for longevity.  Players who dominate the ball and slash (the prototypical SG) tend to begin their declines as soon as their explosiveness wanes.

Paul's the one who depends most on his slashing game, but he's such a multi-skilled player that he should remain effective.

[nickagneta]

Jerry West

Age 33 25.8 PPG, 47.7% FG%, 9.7 APG
Age 35 20.3 PPG, 44.7% FG%  6.6 APG
Age 36 Out of League

George Gervin

Age 32 21.2 PPG, 50.2% FG%
Age 33 16.2 PPG, 47.2% FG%
Age 34 Out of League

Joe Dumars

Age 33 14.7 PPG, 44% FG%, 43.2% 3PTFG%
Age 35 11.4 PPG, 41.1% FG%, 40.2% 3PTFG%
Age 36 Out of League

Pete Maravich

Age 30 27 PPG, 44.4% FG% 6.7 APG
Age 31 22.6 PPG, 42.1% FG% 5.0 APG
Age 32 13.7 PPG 44% FG%, 1.3 APG
Age 33 Out of League

Allen Iverson

Age 32 26.4 PPG, 45.8% FG%, 34.5% 3PTFG%, 7.1 APG
Age 33 17.5 PPG, 41.5% FG%, 28.3% 3PTFG%, 5 APG
Age 34 Who knows?

Earl Monroe

Age 33 17.8 PPG, 49.5% FG%, 4.8 APG
Age 34 12.3 PPG, 47.1% FG%, 3 APG
Age 35 7.4 PPG, 45.7% FG%, 1.3 APG
Age 36 Out of League

Mitch Richmond

Age 34 17.4 PPG, 42.6% FG%, 38.6% 3PTFG%
Age 35 16.2 PPG, 40.5% FG%, 33.8% 3PTFG%
Age 36 4.1 PPG, 40.1% FG%, 29% 3PTFG%
Age 37 Out of League

Hal Greer

Age 34 18.6 PPG, 43.1% FG%, 4.6 APG
Age 35 11.8 PPG, 44.7% FG%, 3.6 APG
Age 36 5.6 PPG, 39% FG%, 2.8 APG
Age 37 Out of League

Bill Sharman Out of League Age 35
David Thompson Out of League Age 30
Sam Jones Out of League Age 36
Dave Bing Out of League Age 35
Sidney Moncrief Out of League Age 34


And the list goes on and on. Shooting guards have major fall offs around age 34. Most are done at age 35 and out of the league by age 36. The above are some of the greatest SGs of all-time and almost all were great until a precipitous drop off
right around the age that Ray Allen is entering now. Most were spot on shooters and not slashers.

Sorry, but the chances of Ray Allen defying this trend are not good. Heck, as good as Orlando's defense was, look at what a pulled hammy did to Ray in the Orlando series. He had tons of open looks in that series and was way off. What happens to his outside shot if the inevitable weakness due to age hits and does as much damage to it as just a tweaked hammy? I'll tell you what happens....he's done!!

[ACF]

I'm really surprised 14 people said Paul?
Huh?!

I went with Ray, even before I checked the
thread for the nice info Nick had for us 

[Who]

I thought both Ray and KG have already gone through a good chunk of their decline over the past couple of years. I think their remaining level of performance will age well.

[TitleMaster]

This would make for a great stem cell research project.

Since there's already a lot of data on the post-33 decline of pure shooters, esp shooting guards, what would happen if adult stem cells were periodically perfused into 32-35 yr old shooters? Would they be able to stay at their plateau till the age of 38-40, without subsequent decline?

[QuinielaBox]

I picked none of them. All will work their butts off this season to make a run at number 18 in 2010. That's the fact jack.

[hpantazo]

Jerry West

Age 33 25.8 PPG, 47.7% FG%, 9.7 APG
Age 35 20.3 PPG, 44.7% FG%  6.6 APG
Age 36 Out of League

George Gervin

Age 32 21.2 PPG, 50.2% FG%
Age 33 16.2 PPG, 47.2% FG%
Age 34 Out of League

Joe Dumars

Age 33 14.7 PPG, 44% FG%, 43.2% 3PTFG%
Age 35 11.4 PPG, 41.1% FG%, 40.2% 3PTFG%
Age 36 Out of League

Pete Maravich

Age 30 27 PPG, 44.4% FG% 6.7 APG
Age 31 22.6 PPG, 42.1% FG% 5.0 APG
Age 32 13.7 PPG 44% FG%, 1.3 APG
Age 33 Out of League

Allen Iverson

Age 32 26.4 PPG, 45.8% FG%, 34.5% 3PTFG%, 7.1 APG
Age 33 17.5 PPG, 41.5% FG%, 28.3% 3PTFG%, 5 APG
Age 34 Who knows?

Earl Monroe

Age 33 17.8 PPG, 49.5% FG%, 4.8 APG
Age 34 12.3 PPG, 47.1% FG%, 3 APG
Age 35 7.4 PPG, 45.7% FG%, 1.3 APG
Age 36 Out of League

Mitch Richmond

Age 34 17.4 PPG, 42.6% FG%, 38.6% 3PTFG%
Age 35 16.2 PPG, 40.5% FG%, 33.8% 3PTFG%
Age 36 4.1 PPG, 40.1% FG%, 29% 3PTFG%
Age 37 Out of League

Hal Greer

Age 34 18.6 PPG, 43.1% FG%, 4.6 APG
Age 35 11.8 PPG, 44.7% FG%, 3.6 APG
Age 36 5.6 PPG, 39% FG%, 2.8 APG
Age 37 Out of League

Bill Sharman Out of League Age 35
David Thompson Out of League Age 30
Sam Jones Out of League Age 36
Dave Bing Out of League Age 35
Sidney Moncrief Out of League Age 34


And the list goes on and on. Shooting guards have major fall offs around age 34. Most are done at age 35 and out of the league by age 36. The above are some of the greatest SGs of all-time and almost all were great until a precipitous drop off
right around the age that Ray Allen is entering now. Most were spot on shooters and not slashers.

Sorry, but the chances of Ray Allen defying this trend are not good. Heck, as good as Orlando's defense was, look at what a pulled hammy did to Ray in the Orlando series. He had tons of open looks in that series and was way off. What happens to his outside shot if the inevitable weakness due to age hits and does as much damage to it as just a tweaked hammy? I'll tell you what happens....he's done!!

are you talking about the same guy who torched the Bulls for 51 pts in a game and kept us un that series with clutch shot after clutch shot?

[nickagneta]

Jerry West

Age 33 25.8 PPG, 47.7% FG%, 9.7 APG
Age 35 20.3 PPG, 44.7% FG%  6.6 APG
Age 36 Out of League

George Gervin

Age 32 21.2 PPG, 50.2% FG%
Age 33 16.2 PPG, 47.2% FG%
Age 34 Out of League

Joe Dumars

Age 33 14.7 PPG, 44% FG%, 43.2% 3PTFG%
Age 35 11.4 PPG, 41.1% FG%, 40.2% 3PTFG%
Age 36 Out of League

Pete Maravich

Age 30 27 PPG, 44.4% FG% 6.7 APG
Age 31 22.6 PPG, 42.1% FG% 5.0 APG
Age 32 13.7 PPG 44% FG%, 1.3 APG
Age 33 Out of League

Allen Iverson

Age 32 26.4 PPG, 45.8% FG%, 34.5% 3PTFG%, 7.1 APG
Age 33 17.5 PPG, 41.5% FG%, 28.3% 3PTFG%, 5 APG
Age 34 Who knows?

Earl Monroe

Age 33 17.8 PPG, 49.5% FG%, 4.8 APG
Age 34 12.3 PPG, 47.1% FG%, 3 APG
Age 35 7.4 PPG, 45.7% FG%, 1.3 APG
Age 36 Out of League

Mitch Richmond

Age 34 17.4 PPG, 42.6% FG%, 38.6% 3PTFG%
Age 35 16.2 PPG, 40.5% FG%, 33.8% 3PTFG%
Age 36 4.1 PPG, 40.1% FG%, 29% 3PTFG%
Age 37 Out of League

Hal Greer

Age 34 18.6 PPG, 43.1% FG%, 4.6 APG
Age 35 11.8 PPG, 44.7% FG%, 3.6 APG
Age 36 5.6 PPG, 39% FG%, 2.8 APG
Age 37 Out of League

Bill Sharman Out of League Age 35
David Thompson Out of League Age 30
Sam Jones Out of League Age 36
Dave Bing Out of League Age 35
Sidney Moncrief Out of League Age 34


And the list goes on and on. Shooting guards have major fall offs around age 34. Most are done at age 35 and out of the league by age 36. The above are some of the greatest SGs of all-time and almost all were great until a precipitous drop off
right around the age that Ray Allen is entering now. Most were spot on shooters and not slashers.

Sorry, but the chances of Ray Allen defying this trend are not good. Heck, as good as Orlando's defense was, look at what a pulled hammy did to Ray in the Orlando series. He had tons of open looks in that series and was way off. What happens to his outside shot if the inevitable weakness due to age hits and does as much damage to it as just a tweaked hammy? I'll tell you what happens....he's done!!

are you talking about the same guy who torched the Bulls for 51 pts in a game and kept us un that series with clutch shot after clutch shot?

You mean the 33 year old guy who couldn't hit the side of the building with the ball in the Orlando series and will be 34 next post season......Yeah, that guy.

[snively]

Who makes a great point.  Ray's decline is already apparent, and the residual skills that keep him effective are likely to be more durable.  At low minutes, I think he can keep his legs fresh enough to stay competent on defense and lethal on the J.  Re-occuring injuries are a significant threat to both KG and Ray though, as their residual skills won't be much good if their bodies break down.

[nickagneta]

KG worries me because although he isn't old, per se, he has tons and tons of minutes played and I think his body might be older than his age, so to say. He is a genetic freak and in unreal shape but his decline could also be very quick due to problems in his joints, where the long minutes will first take it's toll.

I think Danny has each of the three expiring at the right time, as I probably won't want any of them taking up anything over an MLE number after their current contracts.

[xmuscularghandix]

It's already been KG. Even when he was fine at the beginning of the season his Pts and Rebounds were way down.