If Jrue is to be traded...ideas

[Vermont Green]

Here are my assumptions, trade Holiday and replace his salary slot with a player making around $10M.  Extend Porzingis at about $15M per season (not sure anyone would pay him more than that).  Trade Hauser and replace his slot with a min contract.  Kornet is resigned at around $8M per year.  Everything else is at or near min contract value.

That would get us under the 2nd apron for 2026-27 and under the tax (assuming it goes up about 10% each year).   Our team is as follows:

Tatum
Brown
White
Porzingis
$10M Player we get for trading Holiday

Pritchard, Kornet, Craig, Scheierman, Queta, rookies, and so on.  As good as the current team with Horford and all?  No.  But good enough to contend.

Why $8 million per season for Kornet?  That seems higher than the market suggests.

Just a guess.  It is also just a guess to assume that now that Tatum is out that Horford will not be back.

Other teams are going to face the same financial constraints as we go along.  The big loss in my scenario is Holiday but replacing Horford is probably even harder.  Hauser is out of the equation too.  That is a lot of holes to backfill even with this relatively modest cost cutting scenario.

[Moranis]

Here are my assumptions, trade Holiday and replace his salary slot with a player making around $10M.  Extend Porzingis at about $15M per season (not sure anyone would pay him more than that).  Trade Hauser and replace his slot with a min contract.  Kornet is resigned at around $8M per year.  Everything else is at or near min contract value.

That would get us under the 2nd apron for 2026-27 and under the tax (assuming it goes up about 10% each year).   Our team is as follows:

Tatum
Brown
White
Porzingis
$10M Player we get for trading Holiday

Pritchard, Kornet, Craig, Scheierman, Queta, rookies, and so on.  As good as the current team with Horford and all?  No.  But good enough to contend.

Why $8 million per season for Kornet?  That seems higher than the market suggests.

Just a guess.  It is also just a guess to assume that now that Tatum is out that Horford will not be back.

Other teams are going to face the same financial constraints as we go along.  The big loss in my scenario is Holiday but replacing Horford is probably even harder.  Hauser is out of the equation too.  That is a lot of holes to backfill even with this relatively modest cost cutting scenario.

exactly, which is why I believe this run is over. The team needs to cut its losses and move on.  It isnt financially viable to stay together, especially with a lost year next year.  Tatum's injury ended this 8 year run of high level play.  It was a good run, but it is done now.  I mean the Celtics with Bird, McHale, and Parish had only 9 years of contending.  Jordan had to take a year and a half off so the Bulls could reset and build a new contender.  The Duncan Spurs, Magic Lakers, and Russell Celtics are the oddities of more than a decade of contending play with a similar core throughout (and maybe the Warriors if they actually contend again).  Obviously Tatum and Brown are young enough to still have good years left, but they also aren't a surefire top 5 and to 20 player (or top 10 as is the case with many 2nd fiddle on multiseason contenders). They don't have 5 or 6 top 50 level players which is how the more flukey champions won (like the 04 Pistons).  Without the injury to Tatum it was going to be really hard for Boston to win next year, the injury puts the nail in the coffin.

[Moranis]

The Kessler thread got me thinking.  I believe this works for all 4 teams and seems like reasonable value.

Boston - Kessler, Moody, Okoro
Utah - Garland
Golden State - Allen
Cleveland - Holiday, Podz, Collins, 21, 28, 32, future Utah 1st (heavily protected)

Utah gets a multiple time all star in his mid 20's.  Boston shaves about 5 million and picks up some cheaper younger players with value.  Golden State gets a legit starting defensive oriented center.  Cleveland drops a ton of salary and picks up some better fitting players and a couple of 1st (and early 2nd) to get more young players on cheap contracts.

[Moranis]

So in that trade

Boston would be

Starters - White, Moody, Brown, Porzingis, Kessler
Rotation - Okoro, Pritchard, Hauser, Scheirman, Tillman
Deep Bench - Walsh, Davison
IR - Tatum

It would make sense to shed more salary and there are now more options and easier for that to get done with the more moderate salaries.  That also makes it easier to build a better contender in 27 without doing much else as Kessler can slot into the Zinger salary slot when he leaves the team. 

Cleveland would then be

Starters - Holiday, Mitchell, Hunter, Collins, Mobley
Rotation - Podz, Wade, Strus, Tyson
Deep Bench - 21, 28, 32

So a bit better balance and fits, though obviously they do lose the more talented players.  It is a salary reduction for them as well.  I think they do something like that if they really like Podz going forward and want to try to win and build for the future with the younger players.  So Holiday provides them a bigger defensive guard than Garland, Mobley gets the paint all to himself as Collins can play out to the 3 line and keep the middle open, and they try to win the wide open east next year. 


Golden State would then be Curry, Hield, Butler, Green, Allen with not much else though the ability to re-sign Kuminga.  They do this trade to capitalize on the next season or two of Curry and Butler before they age themselves out of contention.  Allen will still have value so they can trade him and reset when age becomes an issue but in the short term, he provides them the big body they need to better compete out west with Jokic, Davis, Wemby, Chet, etc.

Utah gets the scoring guard that Ainge loves and who played well with Lauri in Cleveland.  They can also move Sexton or just keep him as 6th man type player, especially with Garland's injury to start the year (so they can also likely still tank since Ainge apparently loves doing that as well).

[DefenseWinsChamps]

@Moranis

I agree with the value for the Celtics, but I don't like the players we are getting back. I'm not a fan of Okoro. I'm meh on Moody. I worry Kessler is Poetl 2.0 and I don't want to have to pay him like that. Still, for Jrue, a late 1st, and an early second for 3 rotation guys with some upside left is not bad. I'd personally rather be dumping Okoro to get under the 2nd apron.

Pieces of it make sense for the Cavs, but I think Podz is a bit redundant with Ty Jerome who they can just resign. I do like Holliday as a fit with them if they want to contend over the next couple of years. Collins provides more offense and versatility than Allen, even though I'd probably say Allen is the better overall player. They can switch everything on defense and potential be even better defensively this year. Ultimately, I don't think they'd be getting enough back. If the Jazz included their 5th overall pick instead of a few of the late firsts, I think it makes more sense for the Cavs. They could flip that pick to the Nets for the 8th and multiple other firsts, or combine that pick with Hunter for a wing upgrade.

I like the Jazz getting Garland a lot. It pushes their roster forward and allows some of their lottery picks to move into their more natural positions instead of being the primary creators. Overall, they aren't just getting Garland, they are getting a player that can potentially help develop all their young talent.

It does feel like the Warriors aren't giving enough up for Allen. Feels like they should be sending out a future 1st. I love the addition for them though.

[Moranis]

@Moranis

I agree with the value for the Celtics, but I don't like the players we are getting back. I'm not a fan of Okoro. I'm meh on Moody. I worry Kessler is Poetl 2.0 and I don't want to have to pay him like that. Still, for Jrue, a late 1st, and an early second for 3 rotation guys with some upside left is not bad. I'd personally rather be dumping Okoro to get under the 2nd apron.

Pieces of it make sense for the Cavs, but I think Podz is a bit redundant with Ty Jerome who they can just resign. I do like Holliday as a fit with them if they want to contend over the next couple of years. Collins provides more offense and versatility than Allen, even though I'd probably say Allen is the better overall player. They can switch everything on defense and potential be even better defensively this year. Ultimately, I don't think they'd be getting enough back. If the Jazz included their 5th overall pick instead of a few of the late firsts, I think it makes more sense for the Cavs. They could flip that pick to the Nets for the 8th and multiple other firsts, or combine that pick with Hunter for a wing upgrade.

I like the Jazz getting Garland a lot. It pushes their roster forward and allows some of their lottery picks to move into their more natural positions instead of being the primary creators. Overall, they aren't just getting Garland, they are getting a player that can potentially help develop all their young talent.

It does feel like the Warriors aren't giving enough up for Allen. Feels like they should be sending out a future 1st. I love the addition for them though.

Utah isnt giving up the 5th pick for Garland. He is after all currently injured and out for 4 to 5 months.  If they had a pick in the 10-15 range it would work better.  As for GS, I dont think Allen has all that much value.  I think you could reasonably argue that Podz is about equivalent value (different career points and skill set but similar value) plus Moody has value as well and they are taking on salary.  If they trade a pick 5ish years in the future it won't be for someone like Allen. 

I like Kessler which is why I'd do the trade. I also agree that if they could move Moody or Okoro somewhere at some point they would. But that is also the point of the 1 for 3. It makes it easier to move players as you have more depth and more options (like they could mive Hauser for a draft pick since Okoro could get some of those minutes).

[DefenseWinsChamps]

@Moranis

I agree with the value for the Celtics, but I don't like the players we are getting back. I'm not a fan of Okoro. I'm meh on Moody. I worry Kessler is Poetl 2.0 and I don't want to have to pay him like that. Still, for Jrue, a late 1st, and an early second for 3 rotation guys with some upside left is not bad. I'd personally rather be dumping Okoro to get under the 2nd apron.

Pieces of it make sense for the Cavs, but I think Podz is a bit redundant with Ty Jerome who they can just resign. I do like Holliday as a fit with them if they want to contend over the next couple of years. Collins provides more offense and versatility than Allen, even though I'd probably say Allen is the better overall player. They can switch everything on defense and potential be even better defensively this year. Ultimately, I don't think they'd be getting enough back. If the Jazz included their 5th overall pick instead of a few of the late firsts, I think it makes more sense for the Cavs. They could flip that pick to the Nets for the 8th and multiple other firsts, or combine that pick with Hunter for a wing upgrade.

I like the Jazz getting Garland a lot. It pushes their roster forward and allows some of their lottery picks to move into their more natural positions instead of being the primary creators. Overall, they aren't just getting Garland, they are getting a player that can potentially help develop all their young talent.

It does feel like the Warriors aren't giving enough up for Allen. Feels like they should be sending out a future 1st. I love the addition for them though.

Utah isnt giving up the 5th pick for Garland. He is after all currently injured and out for 4 to 5 months.  If they had a pick in the 10-15 range it would work better.  As for GS, I dont think Allen has all that much value.  I think you could reasonably argue that Podz is about equivalent value (different career points and skill set but similar value) plus Moody has value as well and they are taking on salary.  If they trade a pick 5ish years in the future it won't be for someone like Allen. 

I like Kessler which is why I'd do the trade. I also agree that if they could move Moody or Okoro somewhere at some point they would. But that is also the point of the 1 for 3. It makes it easier to move players as you have more depth and more options (like they could mive Hauser for a draft pick since Okoro could get some of those minutes).

If I'm the Cavs, I'm probably not doing that trade unless its the 5th pick.

As an aside, lets say that Allen is worth Collins, 28, and Okoro (even though I'm not sure Okoro is much of a positive asset).

That means that you think Garland is only worth Jrue Holliday, Podz, 21, 32, a future heavily protected 1st.

If the Celtics sent out Hauser, Jrue, Hauser, 28, 32, and a future unprotected first, would that be enough for Garland? What if Pritchard was included instead of Hauser? I think Podz value is somewhere between Pritchard and Hauser.

I don't know - I guess I just don't see enough value coming back for the Cavs in this deal.

[Moranis]

@Moranis

I agree with the value for the Celtics, but I don't like the players we are getting back. I'm not a fan of Okoro. I'm meh on Moody. I worry Kessler is Poetl 2.0 and I don't want to have to pay him like that. Still, for Jrue, a late 1st, and an early second for 3 rotation guys with some upside left is not bad. I'd personally rather be dumping Okoro to get under the 2nd apron.

Pieces of it make sense for the Cavs, but I think Podz is a bit redundant with Ty Jerome who they can just resign. I do like Holliday as a fit with them if they want to contend over the next couple of years. Collins provides more offense and versatility than Allen, even though I'd probably say Allen is the better overall player. They can switch everything on defense and potential be even better defensively this year. Ultimately, I don't think they'd be getting enough back. If the Jazz included their 5th overall pick instead of a few of the late firsts, I think it makes more sense for the Cavs. They could flip that pick to the Nets for the 8th and multiple other firsts, or combine that pick with Hunter for a wing upgrade.

I like the Jazz getting Garland a lot. It pushes their roster forward and allows some of their lottery picks to move into their more natural positions instead of being the primary creators. Overall, they aren't just getting Garland, they are getting a player that can potentially help develop all their young talent.

It does feel like the Warriors aren't giving enough up for Allen. Feels like they should be sending out a future 1st. I love the addition for them though.

Utah isnt giving up the 5th pick for Garland. He is after all currently injured and out for 4 to 5 months.  If they had a pick in the 10-15 range it would work better.  As for GS, I dont think Allen has all that much value.  I think you could reasonably argue that Podz is about equivalent value (different career points and skill set but similar value) plus Moody has value as well and they are taking on salary.  If they trade a pick 5ish years in the future it won't be for someone like Allen. 

I like Kessler which is why I'd do the trade. I also agree that if they could move Moody or Okoro somewhere at some point they would. But that is also the point of the 1 for 3. It makes it easier to move players as you have more depth and more options (like they could mive Hauser for a draft pick since Okoro could get some of those minutes).

If I'm the Cavs, I'm probably not doing that trade unless its the 5th pick.

As an aside, lets say that Allen is worth Collins, 28, and Okoro (even though I'm not sure Okoro is much of a positive asset).

That means that you think Garland is only worth Jrue Holliday, Podz, 21, 32, a future heavily protected 1st.

If the Celtics sent out Hauser, Jrue, Hauser, 28, 32, and a future unprotected first, would that be enough for Garland? What if Pritchard was included instead of Hauser? I think Podz value is somewhere between Pritchard and Hauser.

I don't know - I guess I just don't see enough value coming back for the Cavs in this deal.

I think Okoro has negative value.  Boston and Cleveland are both 2nd apron teams. They can't trade directly with each other as they both have to end below the 2nd apron to do the type of trades being discussed.  They need teams like Utah and Golden State that can take on salary to get it done.

That trade gets Cleveland below the 2nd apron, which is huge for them.