Celtics set to operate as an over-the-second-apron team next season

[ozgod]

Welcome to the new post-Dubs world of roster inflexibility if you are a big spender 

At least we have all those second round picks 

[Celtics2021]

That assumes there are no major roster moves.  I for one don’t expect Brogdon to be on the team in 2024, and won’t be surprised if he is off prior to opening night, even.

[gouki88]

That assumes there are no major roster moves.  I for one don’t expect Brogdon to be on the team in 2024, and won’t be surprised if he is off prior to opening night, even.

What would you anticipate as a return?

[Celtics2021]

That assumes there are no major roster moves.  I for one don’t expect Brogdon to be on the team in 2024, and won’t be surprised if he is off prior to opening night, even.

What would you anticipate as a return?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I am still shocked by the Smart-Porzingis trade, so I don’t anticipate returns with Brad right now.  But I do think Brogdon is very much on the block:  With the second apron, it’s very difficult to justify paying a reserve player, even a very good one, $22.5 million unless you’re going above it.  The C’s are staying below it this year, and so I think Brogdon goes for a package with less salary commitment next year, and enough less this year to give the team a little more flexibility going forward (even a saving of $2-3 million would be impactful).

[gouki88]

That assumes there are no major roster moves.  I for one don’t expect Brogdon to be on the team in 2024, and won’t be surprised if he is off prior to opening night, even.

What would you anticipate as a return?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I am still shocked by the Smart-Porzingis trade, so I don’t anticipate returns with Brad right now.  But I do think Brogdon is very much on the block:  With the second apron, it’s very difficult to justify paying a reserve player, even a very good one, $22.5 million unless you’re going above it.  The C’s are staying below it this year, and so I think Brogdon goes for a package with less salary commitment next year, and enough less this year to give the team a little more flexibility going forward (even a saving of $2-3 million would be impactful).

Touche, especially on the Smart for KP trade. That one was very surprising.

I could see Brogdon being shipped too. His contract is a tricky one, and I am wary about reliance upon several players with injury histories. Wonder who might want Brogdon

[Roy H.]

I'm not sure that's true.  I had looked at the rough numbers, and I think we'll end up in the same place we are now:  above the first apron, below the second apron.

As a practical matter I'm not sure that it makes a gigantic difference.

[jambr380]

I know we have some impressive cap experts on this site, but I saw this post yesterday on Reddit that breaks down our future cap situation fairly well. It is really well organized and worth a look if you have even a little bit of interest in the subject. As Roy mentions, it is certainly quite possible to avoid the 2nd apron while continuing to compete.

https://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/159ev9v/taking_a_look_at_the_celtics_cap_situation_after/

[Vermont Green]

I'm not sure that's true.  I had looked at the rough numbers, and I think we'll end up in the same place we are now:  above the first apron, below the second apron.

As a practical matter I'm not sure that it makes a gigantic difference.

I think this is likely the case.  Things don't really explode until Tatum gets his new contract, likely starting in 2025-26 (he does have a player option, but there is little chance he picks that up).  Brown is going to bump up next season over this season by about $20M but hopefully that can be absorbed by a 10% increase in the caps/aprons.  Otherwise, most everyone else that matters is signed with no significant increases.  Pritchard will be a RFA if he is still around, Kornet a UFA, Champagnie a RFA, all pretty easily replaceable players with draft picks, "promoted" 2-ways, or FAs.  I don't think we have any purely cap reason forcing us to trade Brogdon but I think he has some value, as evidenced by the near LAC trade.  I would be pretty happy to just go with this core team, including Brogdon, for 2 seasons.  I don't feel that Brogdon is "on the block", I am sure he is not "untouchable" either though.

In 2025-26, Tatum is going to get a deal that will make Brown's look like a bargain.  Also, White, Brogdon, and Horford all become UFAs.  That is the point where things get tough.  Resigning some or all of these players will likely push us over the aprons.  Even if we replace them with FAs and rookies, we will likely be over just based on Tatum's increase.  The following season (2026-27), RWill and Porzingis come due.  That is 2-3 seasons away though.  I am not going to start worrying about that just yet.  Way to many variables that could change.

[BitterJim]

I know we have some impressive cap experts on this site, but I saw this post yesterday on Reddit that breaks down our future cap situation fairly well. It is really well organized and worth a look if you have even a little bit of interest in the subject. As Roy mentions, it is certainly quite possible to avoid the 2nd apron while continuing to compete.

https://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/159ev9v/taking_a_look_at_the_celtics_cap_situation_after/

Great post, TP for sharing it.

I wish we were forced over the 2nd apron, though, since it would force Brad's hand in going all out spending for a couple of years

[A Future of Stevens]

I know we have some impressive cap experts on this site, but I saw this post yesterday on Reddit that breaks down our future cap situation fairly well. It is really well organized and worth a look if you have even a little bit of interest in the subject. As Roy mentions, it is certainly quite possible to avoid the 2nd apron while continuing to compete.

https://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/159ev9v/taking_a_look_at_the_celtics_cap_situation_after/

This was a detailed yet succinct breakdown of where we stand going forward. I also thought the first reply was hilarious.

[Roy H.]

I know we have some impressive cap experts on this site, but I saw this post yesterday on Reddit that breaks down our future cap situation fairly well. It is really well organized and worth a look if you have even a little bit of interest in the subject. As Roy mentions, it is certainly quite possible to avoid the 2nd apron while continuing to compete.

https://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/159ev9v/taking_a_look_at_the_celtics_cap_situation_after/

That is definitely a great post.  Years ago I tried to do an annual "Salary Cap FAQ" on the front page, but ultimately abandoned it because that stuff takes a lot of time.  So, kudos to the Sportsologist. 

[jambr380]

I know we have some impressive cap experts on this site, but I saw this post yesterday on Reddit that breaks down our future cap situation fairly well. It is really well organized and worth a look if you have even a little bit of interest in the subject. As Roy mentions, it is certainly quite possible to avoid the 2nd apron while continuing to compete.

https://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/159ev9v/taking_a_look_at_the_celtics_cap_situation_after/

That is definitely a great post.  Years ago I tried to do an annual "Salary Cap FAQ" on the front page, but ultimately abandoned it because that stuff takes a lot of time.  So, kudos to the Sportsologist.

Yeah, the amount of work that goes into something like that cannot be understated. It's easy to have opinions online, but with so many statistics and figures that need to be correct, you really need to do your research and triple check your work.

Things like the Gozlan tweet just really annoy me. Celtics signed Jaylen to a max contract, so he just lazily assumes the Cs are going to be above the 2nd apron and puts it out there as fact. Why can't people like the Sportsologist - among others - be getting actual views on their tweets?

[greg683x]

Every year there’s reports about how we’re prepared to spend big, ‘ownerships given Brad the green light to spend’ etc.  there’s more of these reports than there are reports of us actually talking to free agents.  Just seems like PR bs

[ozgod]

I know we have some impressive cap experts on this site, but I saw this post yesterday on Reddit that breaks down our future cap situation fairly well. It is really well organized and worth a look if you have even a little bit of interest in the subject. As Roy mentions, it is certainly quite possible to avoid the 2nd apron while continuing to compete.

https://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/159ev9v/taking_a_look_at_the_celtics_cap_situation_after/

That is definitely a great post.  Years ago I tried to do an annual "Salary Cap FAQ" on the front page, but ultimately abandoned it because that stuff takes a lot of time.  So, kudos to the Sportsologist.

That thread was where I learned a lot about the salary cap actually