538 predicts the Celtics with 80% chance to win the title.

[JSD]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/

[ozgod]

Conversely, the big money's on the Dubs who are at -160 with Caesar's. Boston is at +140. Worth taking at +140?

[Celtics2021]

Yesterday it was 83%.  Things are heading in the wrong direction.

[Roy H.]

Yesterday it was 83%.  Things are heading in the wrong direction.

Lol.

Does their model take health into account, or is it purely point differential?

[Who]

Seems fair.

I'm at about 65-75% odds of BOS winning.

[Roy H.]

Yesterday it was 83%.  Things are heading in the wrong direction.

Lol.

Does their model take health into account, or is it purely point differential?

Okay, so they're assuming we're at "full strength" (rest up, Rob), and the projection is based upon Raptor ratings. 

Their "Elo" forecast has us at 68%.  "Elo ratings — which power the pure Elo forecast — are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. "

Ultimately, I think this stuff is meaningless, kind of like tracking "win probability" on a minute to minute basis like ESPN Gamecast does.  Plus, I don't like anything that labels us the favorite right now.  This team needs a strict underdog mentality.

[Vermont Green]

Oooops

[Vermont Green]

Yesterday it was 83%.  Things are heading in the wrong direction.

Lol.

Does their model take health into account, or is it purely point differential?

Okay, so they're assuming we're at "full strength" (rest up, Rob), and the projection is based upon Raptor ratings. 

Their "Elo" forecast has us at 68%.  "Elo ratings — which power the pure Elo forecast — are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. "

Ultimately, I think this stuff is meaningless, kind of like tracking "win probability" on a minute to minute basis like ESPN Gamecast does.  Plus, I don't like anything that labels us the favorite right now.  This team needs a strict underdog mentality.

Yeah, it appears that they evaluate health by minutes played.  If you are injured, you play less or no minutes and the contribution of that player is prorated in proportion to the ratio of full strength minutes vs. "current" minutes.  This does not really account for the case where a player is playing his regular minutes but is not full strength and so not contributing for those minutes at full strength production.

The 538 model has liked the Celtics all along.  Their predictions have been pretty good through the playoffs, Celtics and otherwise, but not perfect.  For example, the model had both PHO and LAC ahead of GSW but GSW ahead of all other west teams.  I can understand a model liking PHO but not sure how LAC got rated so high.  The model has all the East teams that we beat ahead of GSW (MIL, BKN, MIA), and of course has us as the best of all.  If the Celtics pull off this title, they are going to make 538 look really good.

At the end of the regular season, 538 had BOS as best and PHO as second best chance to win the title.  Then MIL, GSW, and MIA in that order.  DAL was 8th behind PHI and LAC.  PHO was the big miss but I don't think that necessarily reflects a problem with the model.  The miss on LAC seems to be from having Kawhi in at full strength.  He didn't even play so the model was totally off.  If you take out Kawhi, it is probably about right.  And I guess the model didn't understand it was the Clippers.

[Moranis]

538's rankings are good for how a team has actually played, but not so good for actually predicting things, that said, how teams have actually played this year has actually led to how teams have actually performed in the playoffs so the projections are actually making sense.  Typically though, 538 has a really hard time projecting the ramp up of superstars in the post season.  That is why it doesn't account for things like Luka Doncic going off and almost on his own beating the Suns. The model just can't account for that and that is why it is often not very good at projecting the post season winners.

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

Conversely, the big money's on the Dubs who are at -160 with Caesar's. Boston is at +140. Worth taking at +140?

yes for a fun wager.

i prefer system plays instead of betting who wins series. just get 1 win out series and you are set. if you lose double down each game until you hit using whatever system you prefer. martingale, labouchere, etc.

[Donoghus]

Seems way too high to me.

[SparzWizard]

Now suddenly the media isn't giving the Warriors enough credit which will fuel their fire.

[aefgogreen]

Yesterday it was 83%.  Things are heading in the wrong direction.

I mean, is there even a point in playing the series? 

[DefenseWinsChamps]

And yet the Warriors are the betting favorites.

What does that say about Boston fans propensity to bet?