Payton playing himself out of the league…

[Big333223]

Payton Pritchard...might be the next Steph Curry 

I’d settle for Seth Curry.

Seth Curry wasn't as good as rookie PP until he was 25. Think he's got that level covered

but 25 was basically Seth's rookie year as he only played 2 games when he was 23 and 2 games when he was 24 (he had 21 total minutes before landing in Sacramento in his age 25 season).  And Pritchard will be 24 during the season, he is old as 2nd year players go. 

Older players often (not always obviously i.e. Seth Curry) come in more prepared and perform well, but they also often don't grow like normal rookies do and usually end up with a pretty low ceiling.  That is why I don't expect Pritchard to be much more than a backup level player because he would have to go against historical trends to do that.  Seth Curry is probably a pretty good comparison of where Pritchard will end up.  A guy that could start in the right situation, but is probably best suited as an instant offense type player off the bench.

It's like you're intentionally missing the point. Seth Curry only played that few games because he was simply not good enough. That's the difference. Having totally different starting levels of skill has an impact upon progression.

Sure, but he didn't say Seth Curry the rookie, he said Seth Curry.  You know the guy that has never shot below 42.5% from 3 (and has been 45% or better the last 3 seasons) and started for a team that won a playoff series last year. 

And Seth Curry is the pretty rare player that enters the league after 4 years of college and actually got significantly better.  That isn't typical.  Most older rookies enter the league much closer to their peak.  That obviously makes sense, but is also borne out time and time and again.  There are exceptions (like Seth Curry) so maybe Pritchard is an exception, or maybe he is like most 22 year old rookies that is fairly close to a finished product, in which case Seth Curry would be a pretty good comparison (i.e. a SG in a PG's body that hits 3's at an incredibly high level).

I'd like to see some kind of study examining the relationship between years in college and the ability to get better once in the NBA because I don't think what you're saying here is actually rare at all.

[gift]

Payton Pritchard...might be the next Steph Curry 

I’d settle for Seth Curry.

Seth Curry wasn't as good as rookie PP until he was 25. Think he's got that level covered

but 25 was basically Seth's rookie year as he only played 2 games when he was 23 and 2 games when he was 24 (he had 21 total minutes before landing in Sacramento in his age 25 season).  And Pritchard will be 24 during the season, he is old as 2nd year players go. 

Older players often (not always obviously i.e. Seth Curry) come in more prepared and perform well, but they also often don't grow like normal rookies do and usually end up with a pretty low ceiling.  That is why I don't expect Pritchard to be much more than a backup level player because he would have to go against historical trends to do that.  Seth Curry is probably a pretty good comparison of where Pritchard will end up.  A guy that could start in the right situation, but is probably best suited as an instant offense type player off the bench.

It's like you're intentionally missing the point. Seth Curry only played that few games because he was simply not good enough. That's the difference. Having totally different starting levels of skill has an impact upon progression.

Sure, but he didn't say Seth Curry the rookie, he said Seth Curry.  You know the guy that has never shot below 42.5% from 3 (and has been 45% or better the last 3 seasons) and started for a team that won a playoff series last year. 

And Seth Curry is the pretty rare player that enters the league after 4 years of college and actually got significantly better.  That isn't typical.  Most older rookies enter the league much closer to their peak.  That obviously makes sense, but is also borne out time and time and again.  There are exceptions (like Seth Curry) so maybe Pritchard is an exception, or maybe he is like most 22 year old rookies that is fairly close to a finished product, in which case Seth Curry would be a pretty good comparison (i.e. a SG in a PG's body that hits 3's at an incredibly high level).

I'd like to see some kind of study examining the relationship between years in college and the ability to get better once in the NBA because I don't think what you're saying here is actually rare at all.

I've never put together any data on this myself, but I've generally repeated the idea that exhibiting the ability to get better is a good indicator of continued improvement. So, if a guy gets better each year from 18-22, I like his chances to continue to get better between the ages 22-26. In some ways, simply improving at all is a skill. And when someone shows you they have that skill, you expect them to continue to use that skill.

Obviously everyone has their limitations and there are exceptions.

I think for some college seniors, the "improvement" might just be a bigger role on the team or more confidence. These guys may be near their peak already. But some guys actually show improvement to their game each year. And I would expect these guys are the ones who are likely to continue adding to their game post-college.

[W8ting2McHale]

Payton Pritchard...might be the next Steph Curry 

I’d settle for Seth Curry.

Seth Curry wasn't as good as rookie PP until he was 25. Think he's got that level covered

but 25 was basically Seth's rookie year as he only played 2 games when he was 23 and 2 games when he was 24 (he had 21 total minutes before landing in Sacramento in his age 25 season).  And Pritchard will be 24 during the season, he is old as 2nd year players go. 

Older players often (not always obviously i.e. Seth Curry) come in more prepared and perform well, but they also often don't grow like normal rookies do and usually end up with a pretty low ceiling.  That is why I don't expect Pritchard to be much more than a backup level player because he would have to go against historical trends to do that.  Seth Curry is probably a pretty good comparison of where Pritchard will end up.  A guy that could start in the right situation, but is probably best suited as an instant offense type player off the bench.

It's like you're intentionally missing the point. Seth Curry only played that few games because he was simply not good enough. That's the difference. Having totally different starting levels of skill has an impact upon progression.

Sure, but he didn't say Seth Curry the rookie, he said Seth Curry.  You know the guy that has never shot below 42.5% from 3 (and has been 45% or better the last 3 seasons) and started for a team that won a playoff series last year. 

And Seth Curry is the pretty rare player that enters the league after 4 years of college and actually got significantly better.  That isn't typical.  Most older rookies enter the league much closer to their peak.  That obviously makes sense, but is also borne out time and time and again.  There are exceptions (like Seth Curry) so maybe Pritchard is an exception, or maybe he is like most 22 year old rookies that is fairly close to a finished product, in which case Seth Curry would be a pretty good comparison (i.e. a SG in a PG's body that hits 3's at an incredibly high level).

I'd like to see some kind of study examining the relationship between years in college and the ability to get better once in the NBA because I don't think what you're saying here is actually rare at all.

I mean, there were decades where 18-19 year olds weren’t allowed to play in the NBA and 22 year old rookies was the norm.

Wasn’t Larry Bird 23 when he entered the league because he transferred to Indiana State? Did he not improve?

I understand the reasoning that a 22 year old is more physically mature than a 19 year old, so the 19 year has more potential for physical growth and improved skills, but both have to work to improve and adjust to the NBA once they get there.

The 22 year old might not get stronger and grow another inch like a 19 year old might, but success in the NBA is just as much about skills as athletic ability. Look at all the guys that could jump out of the gym that failed because they couldn’t string 2 dribbles together when guarded by someone with NBA length and quickness.

Payton and similar players don’t have much room to improve physically, but that doesn’t mean that can’t improve their ability to read angles and defense and understand tendencies to penetrate, pass, or get their shot off. He’s a gym rat and I don’t think he’s reached his ceiling. There’s plenty of ways a gym rat can improve their game that doesn’t involve wingspan or jumping ability.