Last Year to This Year -- What Changed?

[ozgod]

Despite the fact that Theis and Fournier both play in the NBA, Theis is not in the same league as Fournier. People around here drastically overrate Theis. We had no better options at Center and he worked ok in Brad’s system. He isn’t and should not be a starter.

You're comparing apples with oranges. They play 2 different positions. Also, Theis is one of those players that fans don't miss, but his teammates definitely will, because he does a lot of little things that make their lives easier and make it easier for them to shine. Marshaling the defense, making sure everyone is where they should be, sealing off defensive bigs to give Jaylen, Jayson and Kemba easier paths to the basket. Sure he had his limitations, especially if your criteria is numbers you want to see in the box score, but his loss will be definitely felt by his teammates.

[PhoSita]

For what assertion

That the dropoff in defensive rating, both in absolute terms and relative to the rest of the league, is attributable to the change in the strength of the East compared to last year.

[LilRip]

This year’s team has a vibe similar to the Kyrie Celtics a couple of years ago. Something’s off beyond basketball talent. I think there’s something wrong inside the locker room but it’s just not surfacing to the media.

What compounds the problem though is that this team is probably the least talented iteration of the roster in the last 4 years, ever since Tatum joined. Losing Horford (from a couple of years back) and Hayward (from last year) has finally caught up with us.

[Moranis]

For what assertion

That the dropoff in defensive rating, both in absolute terms and relative to the rest of the league, is attributable to the change in the strength of the East compared to last year.

when coupled with generally good health.  You can't take one component and not the other.  Boston was pretty darn healthy last year in a weak conference.  They are less healthy this year in a better conference.

[Who]

This year’s team has a vibe similar to the Kyrie Celtics a couple of years ago. Something’s off beyond basketball talent. I think there’s something wrong inside the locker room but it’s just not surfacing to the media.

What compounds the problem though is that this team is probably the least talented iteration of the roster in the last 4 years, ever since Tatum joined. Losing Horford (from a couple of years back) and Hayward (from last year) has finally caught up with us.

I am not sure it is an in-fighting sort of situation.

I expect it is more about dealing with frustration. The frustration of losing. The ins and outs of the lineup due to injury and Covid disrupting rhythm. Too many bench guys who can't step up and do  their jobs. And guys are disengaging. Struggling to bounce back from setbacks. From losses. From disappointments. And both individually and collectively letting themselves settle for less because the frustration has gotten so bad.

It is one thing to take a punch and get back up. It is another to get back up, take another punch and get up again. And another, and another and another ... and failing to get hold of the fight each time. Just taking another punch to the chin.

Watching this team, I just feel like this group has taken too many hits and does not have the mental toughness to keep coming back from those hits. Their confidence has taken a hit. They do not believe in the people around them. They know some of these guys are garbage. That they can't cut it at this level (at this stage in their careers). They know that each time they get back up then they get let down / failed by these youngsters who can't make the grade. And the team fails again. And their confidence takes a hit. Their bounce-back-ability takes a hit. Their resilience is lessened.

Repetitive failure is much harder to recover from than individual / isolated failure. What I see is the inability to deal with repetitive failure.

Some of this is youth. Jaylen and Tatum have not dealt with this before. This is a new sensation. Being asked to carry young guys who aren't good enough is a new sensation. Being asked to stay positive and keep working while guys around you are letting you down is a new sensation. Having vets that you usually rely on (Kemba, Smart) struggle with injury, miss time, needing longer to recover and get back into game shape compounds.

This is what I see -- a compounding set of smaller setbacks & failures that are draining morale and belief in the team as a whole.

Falling back to belief in the individual rather than the collective. Trying to do things on their own to combat difficulties because they have trusted and tried and been let down too many times. And keeping and maintaining trust and belief in others in that situation is difficult.

[Celtics4ever]

  You can't take one component and not the other.  Boston was pretty darn healthy last year in a weak conference.  They are less healthy this year in a better conference.

I think being healthy would help but it is not the end all.    We still have stayed stagnant in terms of talent while other teams improve each year.  Look at Philly?   Bucks?   Us, they've gotten better and teams below us last year have eclipsed us.

It also seems like guys rested on their laurels.

[PhoSita]

For what assertion

That the dropoff in defensive rating, both in absolute terms and relative to the rest of the league, is attributable to the change in the strength of the East compared to last year.

when coupled with generally good health.  You can't take one component and not the other.  Boston was pretty darn healthy last year in a weak conference.  They are less healthy this year in a better conference.

I certainly agree that those are factors, I just don't find that to be a persuasive explanation for a drop in defensive efficiency from top 5 in the league to bottom 10.

[celticsclay]

Because Boston's defense was buoyed by a lot of bad teams.  They were still a good defensive team in the playoffs against the better teams, but they were also weren't nearly as good. 

The Celtics had the best DRTG in the playoffs last year.

Actually, the Celts DRTG was better by about 1 point per 100 possessions in the playoffs than it was in the regular season.

Also, a sampling of their defensive performance against some good teams last year:

- Denver averaged 95.5 points in 2 games
- Philadelphia averaged 106.5 points in 4 games
- Miami averaged 102 points in 3 games
- Lakers averaged 110 points in 2 games
- Mavericks (#1 ORTG in league history last year) averaged 104.5 points in 2 games


There are other examples of teams that lit the Celtics up (San Antonio, for one).  But it's just not true that they were clearly worse defensively against good teams.


The bottom line is there just isn't any good evidence for your "they were actually this bad all along" argument.  I guess there's no one thing I can point to and say definitively that your assertion has been disproven, but you have to basically choose to disregard several years of evidence that the Celtics have, in fact, been very good.  Especially on defense.

Of course there isn't. It's a ridiculously contrarian talking point

Yea I have read a lot of analysis and teams over the years, not just the Celtics. I have seen a lot of teams say a team had a fluke year where everything broke right (the 4 all-star hawks come to mind). I have never seen anyone try to discount an entire 4 year run as fluky. Not sure it is worth responding to.

[PhoSita]

This year’s team has a vibe similar to the Kyrie Celtics a couple of years ago. Something’s off beyond basketball talent. I think there’s something wrong inside the locker room but it’s just not surfacing to the media.

What compounds the problem though is that this team is probably the least talented iteration of the roster in the last 4 years, ever since Tatum joined. Losing Horford (from a couple of years back) and Hayward (from last year) has finally caught up with us.

I am not sure it is an in-fighting sort of situation.

I expect it is more about dealing with frustration. The frustration of losing. The ins and outs of the lineup due to injury and Covid disrupting rhythm. Too many bench guys who can't step up and do  their jobs. And guys are disengaging. Struggling to bounce back from setbacks. From losses. From disappointments. And both individually and collectively letting themselves settle for less because the frustration has gotten so bad.

It is one thing to take a punch and get back up. It is another to get back up, take another punch and get up again. And another, and another and another ... and failing to get hold of the fight each time. Just taking another punch to the chin.

Watching this team, I just feel like this group has taken too many hits and does not have the mental toughness to keep coming back from those hits. Their confidence has taken a hit. They do not believe in the people around them. They know some of these guys are garbage. That they can't cut it at this level (at this stage in their careers). They know that each time they get back up then they get let down / failed by these youngsters who can't make the grade. And the team fails again. And their confidence takes a hit. Their bounce-back-ability takes a hit. Their resilience is lessened.

Repetitive failure is much harder to recover from than individual / isolated failure. What I see is the inability to deal with repetitive failure.

Some of this is youth. Jaylen and Tatum have not dealt with this before. This is a new sensation. Being asked to carry young guys who aren't good enough is a new sensation. Being asked to stay positive and keep working while guys around you are letting you down is a new sensation. Having vets that you usually rely on (Kemba, Smart) struggle with injury, miss time, needing longer to recover and get back into game shape compounds.

This is what I see -- a compounding set of smaller setbacks & failures that are draining morale and belief in the team as a whole.

Falling back to belief in the individual rather than the collective. Trying to do things on their own to combat difficulties because they have trusted and tried and been let down too many times. And keeping and maintaining trust and belief in others in that situation is difficult.

Great post. TP.


I think you're absolutely right.  I worry that this dynamic could have a profound effect on the future of the franchise.  Young stars seem to lose faith in the team they're on faster than ever these days.

The problem is the Celts are kind of in a bind as to their options for drastically changing (upgrading) the roster around Tatum and Brown.  Yet drastic change is what they need.

If something like the same team comes back next season, I think that we're basically locked into a scenario where the team will have to trade one or both of Tatum and Brown before their deals are up.  I think Ainge has to act with urgency this summer to get more reliable, experienced, polished professional players around Tatum and Brown, if for no other reason than to avoid another season where they feel this immense burden, as you described.

[Moranis]

For what assertion

That the dropoff in defensive rating, both in absolute terms and relative to the rest of the league, is attributable to the change in the strength of the East compared to last year.

when coupled with generally good health.  You can't take one component and not the other.  Boston was pretty darn healthy last year in a weak conference.  They are less healthy this year in a better conference.

I certainly agree that those are factors, I just don't find that to be a persuasive explanation for a drop in defensive efficiency from top 5 in the league to bottom 10.

and yet we've seen it.  I would argue it is a combination of factors i.e. health, opponent strength, and loss of talent (both by health and losing better defenders in the off-season).  I do think health is probably the biggest part of that but the other things can't be discounted.

Healthy teams consistently perform better than non-healthy teams. Which of course makes sense, but I don't think this board has really considered just how healthy Boston has actually been.

[PhoSita]

and yet we've seen it.  I would argue it is a combination of factors i.e. health, opponent strength, and loss of talent (both by health and losing better defenders in the off-season).  I do think health is probably the biggest part of that but the other things can't be discounted.

To your East vs West argument:

This season, the Celts are giving up 111.9 points per game against Eastern Conference teams, as compared to 110.5 points per game against Western Conference teams. 

However, the Celts have a 16-13 record against the East, compared to 7-12 against the West.


Last season, the Celtics gave up 106.7 points per game against the East, while giving up 108.3 points per game against the West.  They had a 30-13 record against the East, compared to a 18-11 record against the West.


So I think there is some support there for the idea that the East has gotten tougher, and it's having an impact on the defensive rating.  But the gap between how they're defending against Eastern teams compared to how they're defending against Western teams is about the same, it's just flipped.


Also, if the East becoming stronger were having such a big impact on defensive ratings, you would expect to see that across the board.  On the contrary, 3 of the top 5 defenses in the league this season are in the East.  Meanwhile, 6 of the bottom 10 defenses in the league are in the West.



Instead, what I notice when I look at these rankings is that there are two Eastern Conference teams that were top 5 in defense last season and that are now solidly below average: the Celtics and the Raptors.

Both teams have been hit hard by injuries and COVID this season, and both teams played for a long time in the bubble last season.

I suspect that's where the biggest piece of the explanation for the defensive drop-off can be found.