Brown - most efficient post player in nba

[CelticsElite]

[Monkhouse]

William's at 4th. 

[ETNCeltics]

Post play isn't what it used to be. It's almost a total non-factor in today's nba, except when a team gets a huge mismatch.

[SHAQATTACK]

For Townes ? 

[mmmmm]

William's at 4th. 

After last night's game, Grant is now actually at #1 (1.31 points per play) while Jaylen has slipped to 4th (1.16).

Of course, the volatility of the rankings is indicative of the small sample sizes here.   Grant has post-ups on just 13 possessions this season so far and even Jaylen has only 31.

It is great that both have performed well on these plays so far this year, but I wouldn't put much stock in the relative rankings just yet.

Kanter, with 78 post-up plays so far has the only real meaningful volume of such plays on the Celtics.  His performance (1.03 points per play) ranks him as well above average in the 78.5% percentile ranking.

[Monkhouse]

William's at 4th. 

After last night's game, Grant is now actually at #1 (1.31 points per play) while Jaylen has slipped to 4th (1.16).

Of course, the volatility of the rankings is indicative of the small sample sizes here.   Grant has post-ups on just 13 possessions this season so far and even Jaylen has only 31.

It is great that both have performed well on these plays so far this year, but I wouldn't put much stock in the relative rankings just yet.

Kanter, with 78 post-up plays so far has the only real meaningful volume of such plays on the Celtics.  His performance (1.03 points per play) ranks him as well above average in the 78.5% percentile ranking.

That's interesting, I'm actually surprised at how little post up attempts there has been... Hmm..

Where do you get most of your statistics? I usually use bball reference, but looking for more varied methodologies.

[tazzmaniac]

William's at 4th. 

After last night's game, Grant is now actually at #1 (1.31 points per play) while Jaylen has slipped to 4th (1.16).

Of course, the volatility of the rankings is indicative of the small sample sizes here.   Grant has post-ups on just 13 possessions this season so far and even Jaylen has only 31.

It is great that both have performed well on these plays so far this year, but I wouldn't put much stock in the relative rankings just yet.

Kanter, with 78 post-up plays so far has the only real meaningful volume of such plays on the Celtics.  His performance (1.03 points per play) ranks him as well above average in the 78.5% percentile ranking.

That's interesting, I'm actually surprised at how little post up attempts there has been... Hmm..

Where do you get most of your statistics? I usually use bball reference, but looking for more varied methodologies.

Story on the decline in post play. 

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/12/2/20991249/post-up-dead-nba-brooklyn-nets-joel-embiid 

Edit:
Player stats on post-ups.
https://stats.nba.com/players/playtype-post-up/?sort=POSS&dir=1 

[ozgod]

William's at 4th. 

After last night's game, Grant is now actually at #1 (1.31 points per play) while Jaylen has slipped to 4th (1.16).

Of course, the volatility of the rankings is indicative of the small sample sizes here.   Grant has post-ups on just 13 possessions this season so far and even Jaylen has only 31.

It is great that both have performed well on these plays so far this year, but I wouldn't put much stock in the relative rankings just yet.

Kanter, with 78 post-up plays so far has the only real meaningful volume of such plays on the Celtics.  His performance (1.03 points per play) ranks him as well above average in the 78.5% percentile ranking.

That's interesting, I'm actually surprised at how little post up attempts there has been... Hmm..

Where do you get most of your statistics? I usually use bball reference, but looking for more varied methodologies.

It's because statistically the post-up is apparently the least valuable shot in the NBA today.

The Post-up Is Deader Than Dead in the NBA
Teams have been steadily fleeing the blocks for years. But this season, the back-to-the-basket game is bordering on extinction.

This will be the sixth consecutive season with fewer post-ups than the last, and 2019-20 is on pace for the largest post-up drop-off in more than a decade. The reasons for the play’s excision are all tied together, a result of both rule and strategic changes that have encouraged the rise of Moreyball. (Another fun excerpt from that 2015 Lowe column: He wrote that the post-up death “evokes both wiEdited.  Profanity and masked profanity are against forum rules and may result in discipline.lness for the past and a fear that the NBA is heading toward a homogeneity in which every team drives for corner 3s, layups, and free throws. What happens if we all play Rocketball?” Welcome to the NBA in 2019!)

The post-up seems to have gone the way of the midrange jumper, squeezed out of the game by more analytically advantageous shots. In an average season, a possession that ends with a post-up yields about 86 points per 100 possessions; according to Synergy, no offense this season scores so inefficiently, even if you remove high-value transition plays and focus on half-court offense alone (because most post-ups come against set defenses).

Offenses in 2019 are better positioned to work from the perimeter than the post. Relaxed rules on zone defenses have added traffic on the blocks for back-to-the-basket bigs. The rise of stretch 4s—to say nothing of stretch 5s—removes one player with post-up potential from the offense in favor of a shooter. Big men entering the league are less likely to have mastered post footwork. Guards tend to serve as both scorers and distributors—relegating most bigs to roles that facilitate guards’ offense (like setting picks) rather than creating for themselves.

Full article at https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/12/2/20991249/post-up-dead-nba-brooklyn-nets-joel-embiid

It does beg the question, and we talked about it a bit in the game thread vs the Fakers last night - is the reason the post up the most inefficient shot because a) it's just a bad shot; or b) is it because we don't have players like Duncan or Shaq who were good at it in the league anymore because all the 7 footers want to play like Durant or Porzingis?

[gouki88]

I now feel vindicated for calling for GWill post ups in game threads!

[Fafnir]

The post up is inefficient because teams are allowed to double more freely, teams are much smarter about doubling, and the rules allow for physical defense on the post but not on the perimeter. Offense overall is historically higher than its been, because of the rules and how teams are exploiting them.

Add in the increasing skill in shooting 3s across the league and the post is no longer as efficient as other actions. Typically the highest value outcomes of a post up are:

1. A dunk
2. A kickout that results in a wide open 3.

When the Celtics post up, they often are trying to draw help so they can get the pass out and get a good shot via that. The team's most desired outcome is the pass!

Anyways most of the 'best" post scorers by PPP are low volume guys. The players are rather good at it of course, but they also are only posting when they've got really good position or a good matchup.

Embiid is the massive outlier who is the exception that proves the rule.

[mmmmm]

The post up is inefficient because teams are allowed to double more freely, teams are much smarter about doubling, and the rules allow for physical defense on the post but not on the perimeter. Offense overall is historically higher than its been, because of the rules and how teams are exploiting them.

Add in the increasing skill in shooting 3s across the league and the post is no longer as efficient as other actions. Typically the highest value outcomes of a post up are:

1. A dunk
2. A kickout that results in a wide open 3.

When the Celtics post up, they often are trying to draw help so they can get the pass out and get a good shot via that. The team's most desired outcome is the pass!

Anyways most of the 'best" post scorers by PPP are low volume guys. The players are rather good at it of course, but they also are only posting when they've got really good position or a good matchup.

Embiid is the massive outlier who is the exception that proves the rule.

I would like to add to this (excellent break-down) to caveat that it is important to compare apples-to-apples when comparing post-up plays versus other "play types" that you might see listed, say, at nba.com/stats tracking, etc. 

For example, you shouldn't compare the scoring efficiency of a post-up play to a "transition" play or a "spot-up" play.    A post-up, like a pick & roll, iso or dribble-hand-off (which really should be included as a variation of p&r) are all plays that you can 'call', like out of time-out.  They are deterministic plays.   A transition play or a spot-up are plays that evolve out of prior events on the court.   Though, certainly, a spot-up can be the planned end result of a deterministic play (such as a post-up or p&r that lead to a pass-out).   A coach can't exactly call for a fast-break transition layup out of a time out.

And while post-ups as direct-scoring plays has declined, it is still a very much an important tool that is used to setup kick-outs and other action.     The problem with the play-type efficiency comparisons is that they generally only compare the points generated by the player doing the post-up, not necessarily on the points generated as a result of the post-up.  As Fafnir indicates, a common use of post-ups by the Cs is to get the defense to collapse to enable a kick-out to a spot-up 3.    The way the tools currently work they do not credit that 3 to the post-up play.

[nickagneta]

The post up is inefficient because teams are allowed to double more freely, teams are much smarter about doubling, and the rules allow for physical defense on the post but not on the perimeter. Offense overall is historically higher than its been, because of the rules and how teams are exploiting them.

Add in the increasing skill in shooting 3s across the league and the post is no longer as efficient as other actions. Typically the highest value outcomes of a post up are:

1. A dunk
2. A kickout that results in a wide open 3.

When the Celtics post up, they often are trying to draw help so they can get the pass out and get a good shot via that. The team's most desired outcome is the pass!

Anyways most of the 'best" post scorers by PPP are low volume guys. The players are rather good at it of course, but they also are only posting when they've got really good position or a good matchup.

Embiid is the massive outlier who is the exception that proves the rule.

This is all true but to add onto this, you also need to understand that the art and skill of low post big men has been decreasing for decades. Big men were drilled from the time they were in 9th grade through high school, years of college and the pros the art of boxing out, anticipating the direction of rebounds, establishing initial position, proper footwork, proper balance, proper dribbling technique on a back down, hook shots, down and under moves, using the rim to fend off a blocked shot, proper use of the backboard, kickout to an open shooter, passing out of the double team, etc., etc.

As the game has evolved, those big kids aren't having that game be drilled into them any longer from a young age. Those kids aren't practicing and learning those skills. They also aren't using them at a developmental level as much either because the best bigs are in the NBA after no time or one year in college as compared to 4 years previously. And when they get to the pros, they are taught the outside game as well as  the down low game because those players are expected to play the whole half court, not just in the paint, giving them less time to learn down low stuff.

What this means is the skill that would make post players more efficient are not stressed or, depending on the move or skill, even taught any longer. This is definitely a contributing factor to the post shot being less efficient as a whole as the players aren't having those skills made a priority anymore so the average low post player isn't as good at it.

[tazzmaniac]

The post up is inefficient because teams are allowed to double more freely, teams are much smarter about doubling, and the rules allow for physical defense on the post but not on the perimeter. Offense overall is historically higher than its been, because of the rules and how teams are exploiting them.

Add in the increasing skill in shooting 3s across the league and the post is no longer as efficient as other actions. Typically the highest value outcomes of a post up are:

1. A dunk
2. A kickout that results in a wide open 3.

When the Celtics post up, they often are trying to draw help so they can get the pass out and get a good shot via that. The team's most desired outcome is the pass!

Anyways most of the 'best" post scorers by PPP are low volume guys. The players are rather good at it of course, but they also are only posting when they've got really good position or a good matchup.

Embiid is the massive outlier who is the exception that proves the rule.

Embiid shows what's possible if you have the talent and desire.  His 1.12 PPP on post-ups is really good.  Harden, for example, is 1.13 PPP on isos.  Just imagine if Embiid had better shooting around him. 

As for high value outcomes from a post-up, drawing a foul and shooting free throws should be 2nd on the list especially when you shoot 80% from the line like Embiid does.