Hayward being back is huge BUT

[jambr380]

Someone will definitely offer him the max (and before die-hards jump in arguing he's only worth 20 million a year, FFS Terry Rozier just got 20 million a year) his market value is going to be in line with what Jamal Murray and Ben Simmons just got (5 years 170 million or roughly 34 million a year).  It seems incredibly unlikely that the Celtics will go upto or even into the luxury tax to retain Brown on a non-championship contender considering they'll still have to pay Tatum the very next season so my guess is Brown is gone unless they can move Hayward's 34 million player option for the 20-21 season.

I'm guessing this situation is also the reason Romeo Langford was drafted.

Barring some all out unexpected regression, you are probably right that Jaylen will get a max offer sheet; however, we certainly don't need to be on the hook for $170M. Those contracts to Murray and Simmons were 5-yr max contracts with 8% raises. If we don't feel comfortable going to that extent, then we can match a 4 year (or 3+1) from another team with only 5% raises. It will be quite a bit more affordable with less long-term commitment.

But in no way do I see the Cs just letting Brown walk for nothing. If, for some crazy reason, Danny doesn't want to match another team's offer, he will absolutely get something major in return in a s&t. More likely, we sign Jaylen, Hayward picks up the last year of his max contract, and we spend a year in the tax. The one major benefit to this year is the clock starts over in regards to the penalty since we are no longer in the tax.

[IDreamCeltics]

Someone will definitely offer him the max (and before die-hards jump in arguing he's only worth 20 million a year, FFS Terry Rozier just got 20 million a year) his market value is going to be in line with what Jamal Murray and Ben Simmons just got (5 years 170 million or roughly 34 million a year).  It seems incredibly unlikely that the Celtics will go upto or even into the luxury tax to retain Brown on a non-championship contender considering they'll still have to pay Tatum the very next season so my guess is Brown is gone unless they can move Hayward's 34 million player option for the 20-21 season.

I'm guessing this situation is also the reason Romeo Langford was drafted.

Barring some all out unexpected regression, you are probably right that Jaylen will get a max offer sheet; however, we certainly don't need to be on the hook for $170M. Those contracts to Murray and Simmons were 5-yr max contracts with 8% raises. If we don't feel comfortable going to that extent, then we can match a 4 year (or 3+1) from another team with only 5% raises. It will be quite a bit more affordable with less long-term commitment.

But in no way do I see the Cs just letting Brown walk for nothing. If, for some crazy reason, Danny doesn't want to match another team's offer, he will absolutely get something major in return in a s&t. More likely, we sign Jaylen, Hayward picks up the last year of his max contract, and we spend a year in the tax. The one major benefit to this year is the clock starts over in regards to the penalty since we are no longer in the tax.

Did you see them letting Horford walk for nothing?  How about Kyrie or Rozier?  Did you see the Celtics stalling the Pelicans when they wanted to trade Anthony Davis during the regular season to spite the Lakers? 

This front office has been in a slump for a while - it's dangerous to overestimate them.

[jambr380]

Someone will definitely offer him the max (and before die-hards jump in arguing he's only worth 20 million a year, FFS Terry Rozier just got 20 million a year) his market value is going to be in line with what Jamal Murray and Ben Simmons just got (5 years 170 million or roughly 34 million a year).  It seems incredibly unlikely that the Celtics will go upto or even into the luxury tax to retain Brown on a non-championship contender considering they'll still have to pay Tatum the very next season so my guess is Brown is gone unless they can move Hayward's 34 million player option for the 20-21 season.

I'm guessing this situation is also the reason Romeo Langford was drafted.

Barring some all out unexpected regression, you are probably right that Jaylen will get a max offer sheet; however, we certainly don't need to be on the hook for $170M. Those contracts to Murray and Simmons were 5-yr max contracts with 8% raises. If we don't feel comfortable going to that extent, then we can match a 4 year (or 3+1) from another team with only 5% raises. It will be quite a bit more affordable with less long-term commitment.

But in no way do I see the Cs just letting Brown walk for nothing. If, for some crazy reason, Danny doesn't want to match another team's offer, he will absolutely get something major in return in a s&t. More likely, we sign Jaylen, Hayward picks up the last year of his max contract, and we spend a year in the tax. The one major benefit to this year is the clock starts over in regards to the penalty since we are no longer in the tax.

Did you see them letting Horford walk for nothing?  How about Kyrie or Rozier?  Did you see the Celtics stalling the Pelicans when they wanted to trade Anthony Davis during the regular season to spite the Lakers? 

This front office has been in a slump for a while - it's dangerous to overestimate them.

The Celtics have complete control over whether Brown stays or goes (he's a restricted free agent). If he decides he hates Boston and signs an offer sheet with another team, the Celtics can and will match it if it comes down to that. He can sign the QO, as well, but this will be his guarantee to cash in since he is amazingly the marquee FA available next off-season.

Horford and Kyrie were UFAs and were able to do whatever they wanted when their contracts were up. We had to let Rozier go (or in this case trade him) to open up enough cap space to sign Kemba.

Not trading for AD after the season was likely the correct decision. While we were able to get an agreement from Kemba, Horford was out the door and the package required to obtain him seemingly increased exponentially. AD specifically saying he would not re-sign in Boston after 2020 while also likely giving up at a minimum: Tatum, Brown, MEM pick, additional picks, etc. is incredibly scary to think about.

[Hoopvortex]

Someone will definitely offer him the max (and before die-hards jump in arguing he's only worth 20 million a year, FFS Terry Rozier just got 20 million a year) his market value is going to be in line with what Jamal Murray and Ben Simmons just got (5 years 170 million or roughly 34 million a year).  It seems incredibly unlikely that the Celtics will go upto or even into the luxury tax to retain Brown on a non-championship contender considering they'll still have to pay Tatum the very next season so my guess is Brown is gone unless they can move Hayward's 34 million player option for the 20-21 season.

I'm guessing this situation is also the reason Romeo Langford was drafted.

Barring some all out unexpected regression, you are probably right that Jaylen will get a max offer sheet; however, we certainly don't need to be on the hook for $170M. Those contracts to Murray and Simmons were 5-yr max contracts with 8% raises. If we don't feel comfortable going to that extent, then we can match a 4 year (or 3+1) from another team with only 5% raises. It will be quite a bit more affordable with less long-term commitment.

But in no way do I see the Cs just letting Brown walk for nothing. If, for some crazy reason, Danny doesn't want to match another team's offer, he will absolutely get something major in return in a s&t. More likely, we sign Jaylen, Hayward picks up the last year of his max contract, and we spend a year in the tax. The one major benefit to this year is the clock starts over in regards to the penalty since we are no longer in the tax.

Did you see them letting Horford walk for nothing?  How about Kyrie or Rozier? 

It's regrettable that Horford is gone without compensation - but they weren't willing to pay his price. I give them credit for holding the line on that one, and keeping the long-term future of the franchise first and foremost.

Terry was traded for Kemba, so I don't see that as "walking for nothing". Terry seems to have been disgruntled and an attitude issue, though I can't say that I really know anything definite about that. He did have a drop-off in effectiveness greater than anyone, including Tatum and Brown, so I find it difficult to regret his loss.

I'm a little bit in front of my skis here, but it looks to me as though Carsen Edwards has the skillset to step into Terry's role, and sooner rather than later; and I'd bet that he'll do it more efficiently than Terry did, with the same boldness, tempo, and man defense - actually it looks like Edwards is more ferocious on D.

I can't say that I really know anything definite about Kyrie being a chemistry issue, either, but there's a consensus in the media that he was. Surely you are not blaming the front office for his dissatisfaction? They pivoted smartly, in my opinion, and replaced him with a guy who can, like him, get the ball anywhere on the floor and get the team good shots.

This front office has been in a slump for a while - it's dangerous to overestimate them.

Or underestimate them; but after all the danger is only that of being wrong.

[nickagneta]

Unless the Celtics decide they are all in on Brown and give him a full 5 year max, the most they really have to offer is what Brown would be offered on the open market which would be a 4 year/$127 million contract.

Unless Brown doesn't develop when given a much bigger role this year, one closer to what he had in year 2, the Celtics will pay Brown. Moving him, if necessary, in the future won't be a problem at that number.

[IDreamCeltics]

Unless the Celtics decide they are all in on Brown and give him a full 5 year max, the most they really have to offer is what Brown would be offered on the open market which would be a 4 year/$127 million contract.

Unless Brown doesn't develop when given a much bigger role this year, one closer to what he had in year 2, the Celtics will pay Brown. Moving him, if necessary, in the future won't be a problem at that number.

I like JB a lot but saying it won't be a problem to move him once he's signed at 31 million a year seems like green-shaded wishful thinking.  The only guys I can think of with contracts like that who have been moved recently are superstars.   Brown isn't a superstar, he's not even a star... Realistically he wasn't even a starter last season. 

No, the most likely scenario is probably another team with a ton of cap space and a long-term outlook like the Bobcats offering him something like the 4 years/127 million you predicted after he has a season with similar production to what he's shown for the last two years  - and the Celtics balking because that will send them into the Luxury tax.  They'll make a big deal about being shocked at the contract he was offered and probably complain about tampering but in the end it will just be that they aren't willing to pay to the luxury tax for a guy who isn't an all-star yet. 

[gouki88]

Unless the Celtics decide they are all in on Brown and give him a full 5 year max, the most they really have to offer is what Brown would be offered on the open market which would be a 4 year/$127 million contract.

Unless Brown doesn't develop when given a much bigger role this year, one closer to what he had in year 2, the Celtics will pay Brown. Moving him, if necessary, in the future won't be a problem at that number.

I like JB a lot but saying it won't be a problem to move him once he's signed at 31 million a year seems like green-shaded wishful thinking.  The only guys I can think of with contracts like that who have been moved recently are superstars.   Brown isn't a superstar, he's not even a star... Realistically he wasn't even a starter last season. 

No, the most likely scenario is probably another team with a ton of cap space and a long-term outlook like the Bobcats offering him something like the 4 years/127 million you predicted after he has a season with similar production to what he's shown for the last two years  - and the Celtics balking because that will send them into the Luxury tax.  They'll make a big deal about being shocked at the contract he was offered and probably complain about tampering but in the end it will just be that they aren't willing to pay to the luxury tax for a guy who isn't an all-star yet.

I don't really understand how the "most likely" scenario is that Brown plateaus as a 13/5 wing with good defence yet still warrants a max contact.