Is Tatum and/or Brown worth the max 5 years 170 million?

[tenn_smoothie]

Is this going to be a team's only option going forward now with the idiotic CBA ?  For your top couple of  players,  is it max contract or lose the player ?  Seems extreme to me .

[jambr380]

Jaylen will be offered an extension, but it certainly won't be for the max. My guess is somewhere around 4yrs/$90M and Jaylen will probably just wait.

It would probably be smart for the Cs to just match whatever contract another team offers for both players (unless Tatum just blows up this year - Jaylen's extension negotiations will take place this off-season). At the very least, if things aren't working out, they are only on the hook for 4 yrs and 5% raises rather than 5 yrs and 8% raises.

That could be penny wise, pound foolish, as the saying goes.  (One of Danny’s flaws, I think).  If those two are getting the max by another team, they’re not getting offered a straight 4-year deal with raises.  They’re getting offered a 3+1 deal with raises and a 15% trade kicker, so that if you match, and they become the player you want, their contract expires a year early, with them remembering how wouldn’t pony up the first time and probably leaving as UFAs.

If you think they’re going to get the max in free agency, you pretty much give them the max now, as a designated rookie with the 5-year deal, or you trade them to a team that’s willing to max them.  Long run it’s probably cheaper to get them on a 5-year deal on the 25% level than a 3-year deal at the 25% before jumping to 30%.  If you’re not sure that they’re worth the max, and that’s causing you to hedge, again, trade them, because there are teams who are willing to go there.

There are just no guarantees with Jaylen at this point. I don't know how you can pay him $170M right now without knowing for sure he is worth it. He is a very good player and my current favorite Celtic, but $34M/yr isn't an insignificant amount of money. If the Cs still aren't sure after the season, then a contract match is still probably worth it. At the very least, they would still have him for 3 additional years. You obviously can't lose him for nothing.

We will have a much better idea of Tatum after this season. Players on his trajectory typically do end up getting the max so an extension for him is much more likely than Jaylen and probably worth it in the long run, just based on value.

I shouldn't have lumped them both in the same category in my initial post.

[jambr380]

Is this going to be a team's only option going forward now with the idiotic CBA ?  For your top couple of  players,  is it max contract or lose the player ?  Seems extreme to me .

It doesn't have to be a max if you don't offer one. As has been mentioned, it would have to be a max if another team tries to steal your RFA for that amount. It worked out incredibly well for us the last couple of years not doing the extensions with Smart and Rozier. Rozier eventually got what he wanted from another team, but Smart went for considerably less than he thought he was worth.

Tatum and Brown are much higher ceiling players, though, and teams are desperate for talent.

[mctyson]

Recently Jamal Murray and Ben Simmons received max deals...

I mean Tatum and Brown are similar level talent if you ask me, just was "blocked" last season from improving their stats from the prior season

Would you pay Tatum the max? What about Brown?

Now Tatum we don't have to worry for another season.....but just to gauge the situation

If he and Brown were eligible for the max today, would you pay??

Yes they will get it.

There are a few players in the league that are actually "worth" their contract.

[saltlover]

Jaylen will be offered an extension, but it certainly won't be for the max. My guess is somewhere around 4yrs/$90M and Jaylen will probably just wait.

It would probably be smart for the Cs to just match whatever contract another team offers for both players (unless Tatum just blows up this year - Jaylen's extension negotiations will take place this off-season). At the very least, if things aren't working out, they are only on the hook for 4 yrs and 5% raises rather than 5 yrs and 8% raises.

That could be penny wise, pound foolish, as the saying goes.  (One of Danny’s flaws, I think).  If those two are getting the max by another team, they’re not getting offered a straight 4-year deal with raises.  They’re getting offered a 3+1 deal with raises and a 15% trade kicker, so that if you match, and they become the player you want, their contract expires a year early, with them remembering how wouldn’t pony up the first time and probably leaving as UFAs.

If you think they’re going to get the max in free agency, you pretty much give them the max now, as a designated rookie with the 5-year deal, or you trade them to a team that’s willing to max them.  Long run it’s probably cheaper to get them on a 5-year deal on the 25% level than a 3-year deal at the 25% before jumping to 30%.  If you’re not sure that they’re worth the max, and that’s causing you to hedge, again, trade them, because there are teams who are willing to go there.

There are just no guarantees with Jaylen at this point. I don't know how you can pay him $170M right now without knowing for sure he is worth it. He is a very good player and my current favorite Celtic, but $34M/yr isn't an insignificant amount of money. If the Cs still aren't sure after the season, then a contract match is still probably worth it. At the very least, they would still have him for 3 additional years. You obviously can't lose him for nothing.

We will have a much better idea of Tatum after this season. Players on his trajectory typically do end up getting the max so an extension for him is much more likely than Jaylen and probably worth it in the long run, just based on value.

I shouldn't have lumped them both in the same category in my initial post.

It’s a risk either way.  Milwaukee skimped a little bit on Giannis — gave him near the max but not quite the max so only a four-year deal.  Think they wish they’d given the full five years now, and put off free agency by an extra season?  Not saying Jaylen is Giannis, but at the same time, Giannis blew up in year 4, so these extensions aren’t about what they’ve done but what you think they can do.

And that’s my point.  Jaylen can be the centerpiece of a deal for a top player.  He could have been for Kawhi, he could be for Beal, etc.  If you don’t trust him to become that level of player, you trade him for that level of player.  And if you do trust him, you give him that contract.  Because that’s what other teams are willing to do.

[BringToughnessBack]

Danny had two main options, all in with Kyrie and getting Davis or all in with building around Brown and Tatum while clearing cap for another star ...he has no choice but to give them the max. If those two do not pan out, it will be a long road back to the border of the promised land.

If we try and low ball either, they will gone in a blink of an eye and we will be left with needing a miracle free agent signing in 21. I guess that technically is the third option....hail mary for big star in 21 or 22 and fourth option is sign them and trade them for a monster.

I know which option I feel best at now...Brown and Tatum in Green for next decade.  So, yes, max them and go all in.

[tazzmaniac]

Danny had two main options, all in with Kyrie and getting Davis or all in with building around Brown and Tatum while clearing cap for another star ...he has no choice but to give them the max. If those two do not pan out, it will be a long road back to the border of the promised land.

If we try and low ball either, they will gone in a blink of an eye and we will be left with needing a miracle free agent signing in 21. I guess that technically is the third option....hail mary for big star in 21 or 22 and fourth option is sign them and trade them for a monster.

I know which option I feel best at now...Brown and Tatum in Green for next decade.  So, yes, max them and go all in.

They won't be gone in the blink of an eye.  They'll be restricted free agents so we will be able to match whatever offer they get.  Worst case is that they'll take a Max 3+1 contract. 

[tazzmaniac]

Jaylen will be offered an extension, but it certainly won't be for the max. My guess is somewhere around 4yrs/$90M and Jaylen will probably just wait.

It would probably be smart for the Cs to just match whatever contract another team offers for both players (unless Tatum just blows up this year - Jaylen's extension negotiations will take place this off-season). At the very least, if things aren't working out, they are only on the hook for 4 yrs and 5% raises rather than 5 yrs and 8% raises.

That could be penny wise, pound foolish, as the saying goes.  (One of Danny’s flaws, I think).  If those two are getting the max by another team, they’re not getting offered a straight 4-year deal with raises.  They’re getting offered a 3+1 deal with raises and a 15% trade kicker, so that if you match, and they become the player you want, their contract expires a year early, with them remembering how wouldn’t pony up the first time and probably leaving as UFAs.

If you think they’re going to get the max in free agency, you pretty much give them the max now, as a designated rookie with the 5-year deal, or you trade them to a team that’s willing to max them.  Long run it’s probably cheaper to get them on a 5-year deal on the 25% level than a 3-year deal at the 25% before jumping to 30%.  If you’re not sure that they’re worth the max, and that’s causing you to hedge, again, trade them, because there are teams who are willing to go there.

There are just no guarantees with Jaylen at this point. I don't know how you can pay him $170M right now without knowing for sure he is worth it. He is a very good player and my current favorite Celtic, but $34M/yr isn't an insignificant amount of money. If the Cs still aren't sure after the season, then a contract match is still probably worth it. At the very least, they would still have him for 3 additional years. You obviously can't lose him for nothing.

We will have a much better idea of Tatum after this season. Players on his trajectory typically do end up getting the max so an extension for him is much more likely than Jaylen and probably worth it in the long run, just based on value.

I shouldn't have lumped them both in the same category in my initial post.

It’s a risk either way.  Milwaukee skimped a little bit on Giannis — gave him near the max but not quite the max so only a four-year deal.  Think they wish they’d given the full five years now, and put off free agency by an extra season?  Not saying Jaylen is Giannis, but at the same time, Giannis blew up in year 4, so these extensions aren’t about what they’ve done but what you think they can do.

And that’s my point.  Jaylen can be the centerpiece of a deal for a top player.  He could have been for Kawhi, he could be for Beal, etc.  If you don’t trust him to become that level of player, you trade him for that level of player.  And if you do trust him, you give him that contract.  Because that’s what other teams are willing to do.

On the other hand, the TWolves gave Wiggins a full 5 year extension.  Think they wish they could go back in time and change that?   

I do agree with your last paragraph.  Its a matter of Danny's assessment of Jaylen's upside and likelihood of reaching it.  Beal would be a nice trade possibility.  I also like Jrue Holiday as a possibility. 

[BringToughnessBack]

Danny had two main options, all in with Kyrie and getting Davis or all in with building around Brown and Tatum while clearing cap for another star ...he has no choice but to give them the max. If those two do not pan out, it will be a long road back to the border of the promised land.

If we try and low ball either, they will gone in a blink of an eye and we will be left with needing a miracle free agent signing in 21. I guess that technically is the third option....hail mary for big star in 21 or 22 and fourth option is sign them and trade them for a monster.

I know which option I feel best at now...Brown and Tatum in Green for next decade.  So, yes, max them and go all in.

They won't be gone in the blink of an eye.  They'll be restricted free agents so we will be able to match whatever offer they get.  Worst case is that they'll take a Max 3+1 contract.

But we need to show them we are all in on them. I dont think waiting for them to get restricted offers and then matching is a way to endear yourself to your future stars. How long before trade requests follows not signing them before other offers come in? Yes, I know we can match restricted offers but that is not us saying we believe and here are the keys to the car. If Danny does not believe in Brown, he will be gone before February. He did not offer him for Kawhi supposedly last year so I think he is a believer.

[alt]

Jaylen will be offered an extension, but it certainly won't be for the max. My guess is somewhere around 4yrs/$90M and Jaylen will probably just wait.

It would probably be smart for the Cs to just match whatever contract another team offers for both players (unless Tatum just blows up this year - Jaylen's extension negotiations will take place this off-season). At the very least, if things aren't working out, they are only on the hook for 4 yrs and 5% raises rather than 5 yrs and 8% raises.

This is a terrible idea. It's one of the reasons why Hayward ended up leaving Utah, for example.

You're saving a pretty negligible difference to buy a lot of bad will from the player and agent.

If the players are in the territory of plausibly getting a max contract from another team, you offer them the max. If then there's a huge disconnection between the league-wide value of the player and how you value them, you trade him (or have done so already before the extension).

[Fafnir]

Jaylen will be offered an extension, but it certainly won't be for the max. My guess is somewhere around 4yrs/$90M and Jaylen will probably just wait.

It would probably be smart for the Cs to just match whatever contract another team offers for both players (unless Tatum just blows up this year - Jaylen's extension negotiations will take place this off-season). At the very least, if things aren't working out, they are only on the hook for 4 yrs and 5% raises rather than 5 yrs and 8% raises.

This is a terrible idea. It's one of the reasons why Hayward ended up leaving Utah, for example.

You're saving a pretty negligible difference to buy a lot of bad will from the player and agent.

If the players are in the territory of plausibly getting a max contract from another team, you offer them the max. If then there's a huge disconnection between the league-wide value of the player and how you value them, you trade him (or have done so already before the extension).

The Celtics haven't extended a draft pick since Rondo.

Don't expect Jaylen to sign one either, he and his agent are going to demand the max or close to it, I don't think the C's will pay that in October. I think they'll pay it after he shows improvement this year though.

[alt]

Jaylen will be offered an extension, but it certainly won't be for the max. My guess is somewhere around 4yrs/$90M and Jaylen will probably just wait.

It would probably be smart for the Cs to just match whatever contract another team offers for both players (unless Tatum just blows up this year - Jaylen's extension negotiations will take place this off-season). At the very least, if things aren't working out, they are only on the hook for 4 yrs and 5% raises rather than 5 yrs and 8% raises.

This is a terrible idea. It's one of the reasons why Hayward ended up leaving Utah, for example.

You're saving a pretty negligible difference to buy a lot of bad will from the player and agent.

If the players are in the territory of plausibly getting a max contract from another team, you offer them the max. If then there's a huge disconnection between the league-wide value of the player and how you value them, you trade him (or have done so already before the extension).

The Celtics haven't extended a draft pick since Rondo.

Don't expect Jaylen to sign one either, he and his agent are going to demand the max or close to it, I don't think the C's will pay that in October. I think they'll pay it after he shows improvement this year though.

I surely dont' expect Brown to be offered the max and wouldn't offer him one. I'd wait for the end of the season.

What I think is a bad idea is at the end of the year, the player being in max contract territory and the team playing those games of letting him sign somewhere and then match to save a few million.

[ozgod]

Is this going to be a team's only option going forward now with the idiotic CBA ?  For your top couple of  players,  is it max contract or lose the player ?  Seems extreme to me .

Unfortunately it all depends on what other teams think they are worth...if someone thinks they're worth a max and we don't then we might lose them.

[jambr380]

Jaylen will be offered an extension, but it certainly won't be for the max. My guess is somewhere around 4yrs/$90M and Jaylen will probably just wait.

It would probably be smart for the Cs to just match whatever contract another team offers for both players (unless Tatum just blows up this year - Jaylen's extension negotiations will take place this off-season). At the very least, if things aren't working out, they are only on the hook for 4 yrs and 5% raises rather than 5 yrs and 8% raises.

This is a terrible idea. It's one of the reasons why Hayward ended up leaving Utah, for example.

You're saving a pretty negligible difference to buy a lot of bad will from the player and agent.

If the players are in the territory of plausibly getting a max contract from another team, you offer them the max. If then there's a huge disconnection between the league-wide value of the player and how you value them, you trade him (or have done so already before the extension).

The Celtics haven't extended a draft pick since Rondo.

Don't expect Jaylen to sign one either, he and his agent are going to demand the max or close to it, I don't think the C's will pay that in October. I think they'll pay it after he shows improvement this year though.

I surely dont' expect Brown to be offered the max and wouldn't offer him one. I'd wait for the end of the season.

What I think is a bad idea is at the end of the year, the player being in max contract territory and the team playing those games of letting him sign somewhere and then match to save a few million.

I clarified my stance in my following post. I certainly stand by my point that you don't extend him for the max now, but we will have to see what happens this season. If another desperate team is offering Jaylen the max and he is coming off of a 14/5/2 season with decent efficiency, then I don't just automatically hand him the 5-yr max; I match and hope for the best. If he is putting up 20/7/5, then yeah, obviously.

Hayward was very close to staying in Utah and I don't think the decision not to give him a 5-yr max was a main factor. We had his college coach and were a better team. If it looks like Jaylen would bolt and he is a couple of years in on his contract, then we could trade him. It's not the end of the world.

Also, Jaylen doesn't have an agent since he doesn't think one person is qualified to handle all of his personal/professional interests. Instead he speaks for himself (exact words from Jaylen) and hires consultants if necessary.

[PAOBoston]

They aren’t going to extend him early. And they shouldn’t. Let him play out the year and see how he does. Offer him RFA qualifying offer. If someone gives him a contract, you can match.