Author Topic: ESPN ECS predictions  (Read 10222 times)

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Re: ESPN ECS predictions
« Reply #30 on: April 26, 2019, 07:57:36 PM »

Online Moranis

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5 picked the C's, only 1 person thinks it is less than 6 games (he picked the Bucks in 5).

Only 2 picked the Sixers over the Raptors. That is pretty surprising as I figured that would be more of a toss up.

How would it be a toss up? Raptors won 7 more games than 76ers and have home court advantage. On top of that the 76ers have a pretty banged up Embiid and Leonard is the healthiest he has been. I think most would expect Toronto in 5.
But why doesn't that also apply to the Bucks/C's series?  After all the Bucks have an even greater win advantage and obviously also have home court.

And to be clear, more of a toss up, does not mean a toss up.  It means closer to a toss up than the other series as in I would have expected the experts to think the Sixers/Raptors would be closer than the Bucks/Celtics, especially with all of the trades Philly made and their pretty clear starting lineup advantage over the Raptors (though the Raptors have more depth and the best player in the series especially with Embiid not at full strength).

I don't think the Celtics should be considered a toss up for Bucks either. They should definitely be favored over us. I am not so sure why you would say the 76ers have a clear starting lineup advantage.

Gasol << Embid
Lowry = Simmons
Leonard >> Butler
Siakam > Harris
Danny Green = Reddick

For what it is worth, not even liberty ballers has the 76ers with a clear starting lineup advantage (https://www.libertyballers.com/2019/4/26/18518218/ranking-the-16-best-players-in-the-sixers-raptors-series). You add in that embiid is in really bad shape right now, and hard to see where they have an advantage

Side note, you still trying to argue Johathon Simmons is a quality rotation player after Brown benched him?
LibertyBallers took a big drop in quality when Derek Bodner and a couple others left a couple years ago.  Having Harris below Gasol and Green is nonsense.  I'd also question Siakam being rated 4th.

Regular season starting lineup comparisons. 
                              Min     Offrtg        Defrtg       Netrtg
Sixers starting 5:     161   119.0   101.4   17.6
Raptors starting 5:   161   119.5   107.3   12.2   

Assuming Embiid is healthy, I'd take the Sixers starting 5.  All of the Sixers 5 are offensive threats that have to be accounted for.  Gasol and Green really aren't.

This strikes me as one of your "blindly jump in defend the 76ers post against some perceived injustice type posts" that honestly become difficult to tell exactly who and what you are arguing about. Moranis argued they had a clear starting 5 difference, which I disagreed with and broke down the starting 5's against each other and think they are pretty even.

Both teams had two all-stars (Lowry, Leonard, simmons and Embid). Both teams have a guy that could have been an all-star and have a good chance of being again in the future (I would be shocked if a healthy Siakam doesn't make team next year, and butler should too, Siakam improving Butler slightly declining). Than you have a very strong player in Gasol and Harris with Gasol declining and Harris improving/in his prime. Reddick and Green clearly both seem to very strong role players with Green maybe a slight advantage as a two player.

Again pretty even starting 5's, and that seems kind of hard to argue with. Is that what you are trying to argue?

Edit, it also seems bizarre to say a guy that is shooting 45% from 3 for the year doesn't need to be accounted for as an offensive player? Woof that is a rough take. Does he have to shoot the league record for 3pt% ? Gasol can score on the low post, from 3 and is a highly skiller passer, but is somehow less of an offensive threat than Reddick? That is a spicy take!
Kawhi is the best player in the series, but Embiid, Butler, and Simmons are the next 3.  Harris is in the same general range as Lowry and Siakam.  Redick is probably ahead of Gasol at this point and Green is pretty clearly the worst starter.  Top to bottom the Sixers have the best starting 5 in that series (and frankly would give GS a run for their money as the best starting 5 in the sport) and it isn't really all that close.  Kawhi though is the best player and the Raptors have a lot more quality depth as I really like the mix with Ibaka, VanVleet, and Powell plus I think you could actually trust Meeks, McCaw, and Lin if you really needed them.

Now don't get me wrong, I do think Toronto will win the series, probably in 7, but that is a good deal based on Embiid's health as much as anything else.
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Re: ESPN ECS predictions
« Reply #31 on: April 26, 2019, 08:03:07 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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5 picked the C's, only 1 person thinks it is less than 6 games (he picked the Bucks in 5).

Only 2 picked the Sixers over the Raptors. That is pretty surprising as I figured that would be more of a toss up.

How would it be a toss up? Raptors won 7 more games than 76ers and have home court advantage. On top of that the 76ers have a pretty banged up Embiid and Leonard is the healthiest he has been. I think most would expect Toronto in 5.
But why doesn't that also apply to the Bucks/C's series?  After all the Bucks have an even greater win advantage and obviously also have home court.

And to be clear, more of a toss up, does not mean a toss up.  It means closer to a toss up than the other series as in I would have expected the experts to think the Sixers/Raptors would be closer than the Bucks/Celtics, especially with all of the trades Philly made and their pretty clear starting lineup advantage over the Raptors (though the Raptors have more depth and the best player in the series especially with Embiid not at full strength).

I don't think the Celtics should be considered a toss up for Bucks either. They should definitely be favored over us. I am not so sure why you would say the 76ers have a clear starting lineup advantage.

Gasol << Embid
Lowry = Simmons
Leonard >> Butler
Siakam > Harris
Danny Green = Reddick

For what it is worth, not even liberty ballers has the 76ers with a clear starting lineup advantage (https://www.libertyballers.com/2019/4/26/18518218/ranking-the-16-best-players-in-the-sixers-raptors-series). You add in that embiid is in really bad shape right now, and hard to see where they have an advantage

Side note, you still trying to argue Johathon Simmons is a quality rotation player after Brown benched him?
LibertyBallers took a big drop in quality when Derek Bodner and a couple others left a couple years ago.  Having Harris below Gasol and Green is nonsense.  I'd also question Siakam being rated 4th.

Regular season starting lineup comparisons. 
                              Min     Offrtg        Defrtg       Netrtg
Sixers starting 5:     161   119.0   101.4   17.6
Raptors starting 5:   161   119.5   107.3   12.2   

Assuming Embiid is healthy, I'd take the Sixers starting 5.  All of the Sixers 5 are offensive threats that have to be accounted for.  Gasol and Green really aren't.

This strikes me as one of your "blindly jump in defend the 76ers post against some perceived injustice type posts" that honestly become difficult to tell exactly who and what you are arguing about. Moranis argued they had a clear starting 5 difference, which I disagreed with and broke down the starting 5's against each other and think they are pretty even.

Both teams had two all-stars (Lowry, Leonard, simmons and Embid). Both teams have a guy that could have been an all-star and have a good chance of being again in the future (I would be shocked if a healthy Siakam doesn't make team next year, and butler should too, Siakam improving Butler slightly declining). Than you have a very strong player in Gasol and Harris with Gasol declining and Harris improving/in his prime. Reddick and Green clearly both seem to very strong role players with Green maybe a slight advantage as a two player.

Again pretty even starting 5's, and that seems kind of hard to argue with. Is that what you are trying to argue?

Edit, it also seems bizarre to say a guy that is shooting 45% from 3 for the year doesn't need to be accounted for as an offensive player? Woof that is a rough take. Does he have to shoot the league record for 3pt% ? Gasol can score on the low post, from 3 and is a highly skiller passer, but is somehow less of an offensive threat than Reddick? That is a spicy take!
Kawhi is the best player in the series, but Embiid, Butler, and Simmons are the next 3.  Harris is in the same general range as Lowry and Siakam.  Redick is probably ahead of Gasol at this point and Green is pretty clearly the worst starter.  Top to bottom the Sixers have the best starting 5 in that series (and frankly would give GS a run for their money as the best starting 5 in the sport) and it isn't really all that close.  Kawhi though is the best player and the Raptors have a lot more quality depth as I really like the mix with Ibaka, VanVleet, and Powell plus I think you could actually trust Meeks, McCaw, and Lin if you really needed them.

Now don't get me wrong, I do think Toronto will win the series, probably in 7, but that is a good deal based on Embiid's health as much as anything else.

I really don't agree with this at all. And I certainly don't think Green is clearly the worst starter he is a two player that shot 45% from 3 this year. Reddick is better at getting his shot off, by a pretty large amount, but certainly not offsetting the fact that Danny Green is on Zach lowe's and other's all second defensive team and Reddick is remarkably below average.

However, we are so far apart on this stuff that I don't really think it is worth either of our time to entertain further. I will say it is worth pointing out that a 76ers fan blog (and even their fans in the comment section who disagree with some of the players rankings, especially green) don't even rank the players as robustly as you just did in comparison. You are higher on their players than even their biggest of fans. That is worthy of something, just not sure what it is.   

Re: ESPN ECS predictions
« Reply #32 on: April 26, 2019, 08:03:22 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

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5 picked the C's, only 1 person thinks it is less than 6 games (he picked the Bucks in 5).

Only 2 picked the Sixers over the Raptors. That is pretty surprising as I figured that would be more of a toss up.

How would it be a toss up? Raptors won 7 more games than 76ers and have home court advantage. On top of that the 76ers have a pretty banged up Embiid and Leonard is the healthiest he has been. I think most would expect Toronto in 5.
But why doesn't that also apply to the Bucks/C's series?  After all the Bucks have an even greater win advantage and obviously also have home court.

And to be clear, more of a toss up, does not mean a toss up.  It means closer to a toss up than the other series as in I would have expected the experts to think the Sixers/Raptors would be closer than the Bucks/Celtics, especially with all of the trades Philly made and their pretty clear starting lineup advantage over the Raptors (though the Raptors have more depth and the best player in the series especially with Embiid not at full strength).

I don't think the Celtics should be considered a toss up for Bucks either. They should definitely be favored over us. I am not so sure why you would say the 76ers have a clear starting lineup advantage.

Gasol << Embid
Lowry = Simmons
Leonard >> Butler
Siakam > Harris
Danny Green = Reddick

For what it is worth, not even liberty ballers has the 76ers with a clear starting lineup advantage (https://www.libertyballers.com/2019/4/26/18518218/ranking-the-16-best-players-in-the-sixers-raptors-series). You add in that embiid is in really bad shape right now, and hard to see where they have an advantage

Side note, you still trying to argue Johathon Simmons is a quality rotation player after Brown benched him?
LibertyBallers took a big drop in quality when Derek Bodner and a couple others left a couple years ago.  Having Harris below Gasol and Green is nonsense.  I'd also question Siakam being rated 4th.

Regular season starting lineup comparisons. 
                              Min     Offrtg        Defrtg       Netrtg
Sixers starting 5:     161   119.0   101.4   17.6
Raptors starting 5:   161   119.5   107.3   12.2   

Assuming Embiid is healthy, I'd take the Sixers starting 5.  All of the Sixers 5 are offensive threats that have to be accounted for.  Gasol and Green really aren't.

This strikes me as one of your "blindly jump in defend the 76ers post against some perceived injustice type posts" that honestly become difficult to tell exactly who and what you are arguing about. Moranis argued they had a clear starting 5 difference, which I disagreed with and broke down the starting 5's against each other and think they are pretty even.

Both teams had two all-stars (Lowry, Leonard, simmons and Embid). Both teams have a guy that could have been an all-star and have a good chance of being again in the future (I would be shocked if a healthy Siakam doesn't make team next year, and butler should too, Siakam improving Butler slightly declining). Than you have a very strong player in Gasol and Harris with Gasol declining and Harris improving/in his prime. Reddick and Green clearly both seem to very strong role players with Green maybe a slight advantage as a two player.

Again pretty even starting 5's, and that seems kind of hard to argue with. Is that what you are trying to argue?

Edit, it also seems bizarre to say a guy that is shooting 45% from 3 for the year doesn't need to be accounted for as an offensive player? Woof that is a rough take. Does he have to shoot the league record for 3pt% ? Gasol can score on the low post, from 3 and is a highly skiller passer, but is somehow less of an offensive threat than Reddick? That is a spicy take!
I stated my opinion and you go off the deep end again.  I even provide some stats rather than doing a rough comparison like you did.  Toronto has a good starting 5 but I think the Sixers starting 5 is better again assuming a healthy Embiid.  Now Toronto's 6 through 8 is certainly better. 

Gasol shot 2 3pt shots and 7.2 shots overall and 2 FTAs for Toronto in the regular season.  You need to defend him but you don't need to game plan for him.  Redick on the other hand is the energizer bunny.  He'll run you through screens all night long.  He's a key piece of the Sixers offense (40% on 8.0 3 pt shots and 13.5 shots overall).   

Re: ESPN ECS predictions
« Reply #33 on: April 26, 2019, 08:08:20 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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5 picked the C's, only 1 person thinks it is less than 6 games (he picked the Bucks in 5).

Only 2 picked the Sixers over the Raptors. That is pretty surprising as I figured that would be more of a toss up.

How would it be a toss up? Raptors won 7 more games than 76ers and have home court advantage. On top of that the 76ers have a pretty banged up Embiid and Leonard is the healthiest he has been. I think most would expect Toronto in 5.
But why doesn't that also apply to the Bucks/C's series?  After all the Bucks have an even greater win advantage and obviously also have home court.

And to be clear, more of a toss up, does not mean a toss up.  It means closer to a toss up than the other series as in I would have expected the experts to think the Sixers/Raptors would be closer than the Bucks/Celtics, especially with all of the trades Philly made and their pretty clear starting lineup advantage over the Raptors (though the Raptors have more depth and the best player in the series especially with Embiid not at full strength).

I don't think the Celtics should be considered a toss up for Bucks either. They should definitely be favored over us. I am not so sure why you would say the 76ers have a clear starting lineup advantage.

Gasol << Embid
Lowry = Simmons
Leonard >> Butler
Siakam > Harris
Danny Green = Reddick

For what it is worth, not even liberty ballers has the 76ers with a clear starting lineup advantage (https://www.libertyballers.com/2019/4/26/18518218/ranking-the-16-best-players-in-the-sixers-raptors-series). You add in that embiid is in really bad shape right now, and hard to see where they have an advantage

Side note, you still trying to argue Johathon Simmons is a quality rotation player after Brown benched him?
LibertyBallers took a big drop in quality when Derek Bodner and a couple others left a couple years ago.  Having Harris below Gasol and Green is nonsense.  I'd also question Siakam being rated 4th.

Regular season starting lineup comparisons. 
                              Min     Offrtg        Defrtg       Netrtg
Sixers starting 5:     161   119.0   101.4   17.6
Raptors starting 5:   161   119.5   107.3   12.2   

Assuming Embiid is healthy, I'd take the Sixers starting 5.  All of the Sixers 5 are offensive threats that have to be accounted for.  Gasol and Green really aren't.

This strikes me as one of your "blindly jump in defend the 76ers post against some perceived injustice type posts" that honestly become difficult to tell exactly who and what you are arguing about. Moranis argued they had a clear starting 5 difference, which I disagreed with and broke down the starting 5's against each other and think they are pretty even.

Both teams had two all-stars (Lowry, Leonard, simmons and Embid). Both teams have a guy that could have been an all-star and have a good chance of being again in the future (I would be shocked if a healthy Siakam doesn't make team next year, and butler should too, Siakam improving Butler slightly declining). Than you have a very strong player in Gasol and Harris with Gasol declining and Harris improving/in his prime. Reddick and Green clearly both seem to very strong role players with Green maybe a slight advantage as a two player.

Again pretty even starting 5's, and that seems kind of hard to argue with. Is that what you are trying to argue?

Edit, it also seems bizarre to say a guy that is shooting 45% from 3 for the year doesn't need to be accounted for as an offensive player? Woof that is a rough take. Does he have to shoot the league record for 3pt% ? Gasol can score on the low post, from 3 and is a highly skiller passer, but is somehow less of an offensive threat than Reddick? That is a spicy take!
I stated my opinion and you go off the deep end again.  I even provide some stats rather than doing a rough comparison like you did.  Toronto has a good starting 5 but I think the Sixers starting 5 is better again assuming a healthy Embiid.  Now Toronto's 6 through 8 is certainly better. 

Gasol shot 2 3pt shots and 7.2 shots overall and 2 FTAs for Toronto in the regular season.  You need to defend him but you don't need to game plan for him.  Redick on the other hand is the energizer bunny.  He'll run you through screens all night long.  He's a key piece of the Sixers offense (40% on 8.0 3 pt shots and 13.5 shots overall).

what about my post was "going off the deep end?" i was literally trying to figure out what point you were trying to make and rephrased what the discussion was between me and Moranis... you must work in a cemetery if that is too much excitement for ya lol

Re: ESPN ECS predictions
« Reply #34 on: April 26, 2019, 08:25:27 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

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5 picked the C's, only 1 person thinks it is less than 6 games (he picked the Bucks in 5).

Only 2 picked the Sixers over the Raptors. That is pretty surprising as I figured that would be more of a toss up.

How would it be a toss up? Raptors won 7 more games than 76ers and have home court advantage. On top of that the 76ers have a pretty banged up Embiid and Leonard is the healthiest he has been. I think most would expect Toronto in 5.
But why doesn't that also apply to the Bucks/C's series?  After all the Bucks have an even greater win advantage and obviously also have home court.

And to be clear, more of a toss up, does not mean a toss up.  It means closer to a toss up than the other series as in I would have expected the experts to think the Sixers/Raptors would be closer than the Bucks/Celtics, especially with all of the trades Philly made and their pretty clear starting lineup advantage over the Raptors (though the Raptors have more depth and the best player in the series especially with Embiid not at full strength).

I don't think the Celtics should be considered a toss up for Bucks either. They should definitely be favored over us. I am not so sure why you would say the 76ers have a clear starting lineup advantage.

Gasol << Embid
Lowry = Simmons
Leonard >> Butler
Siakam > Harris
Danny Green = Reddick

For what it is worth, not even liberty ballers has the 76ers with a clear starting lineup advantage (https://www.libertyballers.com/2019/4/26/18518218/ranking-the-16-best-players-in-the-sixers-raptors-series). You add in that embiid is in really bad shape right now, and hard to see where they have an advantage

Side note, you still trying to argue Johathon Simmons is a quality rotation player after Brown benched him?
LibertyBallers took a big drop in quality when Derek Bodner and a couple others left a couple years ago.  Having Harris below Gasol and Green is nonsense.  I'd also question Siakam being rated 4th.

Regular season starting lineup comparisons. 
                              Min     Offrtg        Defrtg       Netrtg
Sixers starting 5:     161   119.0   101.4   17.6
Raptors starting 5:   161   119.5   107.3   12.2   

Assuming Embiid is healthy, I'd take the Sixers starting 5.  All of the Sixers 5 are offensive threats that have to be accounted for.  Gasol and Green really aren't.

This strikes me as one of your "blindly jump in defend the 76ers post against some perceived injustice type posts" that honestly become difficult to tell exactly who and what you are arguing about. Moranis argued they had a clear starting 5 difference, which I disagreed with and broke down the starting 5's against each other and think they are pretty even.

Both teams had two all-stars (Lowry, Leonard, simmons and Embid). Both teams have a guy that could have been an all-star and have a good chance of being again in the future (I would be shocked if a healthy Siakam doesn't make team next year, and butler should too, Siakam improving Butler slightly declining). Than you have a very strong player in Gasol and Harris with Gasol declining and Harris improving/in his prime. Reddick and Green clearly both seem to very strong role players with Green maybe a slight advantage as a two player.

Again pretty even starting 5's, and that seems kind of hard to argue with. Is that what you are trying to argue?

Edit, it also seems bizarre to say a guy that is shooting 45% from 3 for the year doesn't need to be accounted for as an offensive player? Woof that is a rough take. Does he have to shoot the league record for 3pt% ? Gasol can score on the low post, from 3 and is a highly skiller passer, but is somehow less of an offensive threat than Reddick? That is a spicy take!
I stated my opinion and you go off the deep end again.  I even provide some stats rather than doing a rough comparison like you did.  Toronto has a good starting 5 but I think the Sixers starting 5 is better again assuming a healthy Embiid.  Now Toronto's 6 through 8 is certainly better. 

Gasol shot 2 3pt shots and 7.2 shots overall and 2 FTAs for Toronto in the regular season.  You need to defend him but you don't need to game plan for him.  Redick on the other hand is the energizer bunny.  He'll run you through screens all night long.  He's a key piece of the Sixers offense (40% on 8.0 3 pt shots and 13.5 shots overall).

what about my post was "going off the deep end?" i was literally trying to figure out what point you were trying to make and rephrased what the discussion was between me and Moranis... you must work in a cemetery if that is too much excitement for ya lol
Your 1st sentence was off the deep end and I'm not sure how you had any difficulty understanding my post. 

BTW in your rough comparison, you're short changing Harris.  He was in the conversation to make the allstar team for the west. 

Re: ESPN ECS predictions
« Reply #35 on: April 26, 2019, 09:11:00 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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5 picked the C's, only 1 person thinks it is less than 6 games (he picked the Bucks in 5).

Only 2 picked the Sixers over the Raptors. That is pretty surprising as I figured that would be more of a toss up.

How would it be a toss up? Raptors won 7 more games than 76ers and have home court advantage. On top of that the 76ers have a pretty banged up Embiid and Leonard is the healthiest he has been. I think most would expect Toronto in 5.
But why doesn't that also apply to the Bucks/C's series?  After all the Bucks have an even greater win advantage and obviously also have home court.

And to be clear, more of a toss up, does not mean a toss up.  It means closer to a toss up than the other series as in I would have expected the experts to think the Sixers/Raptors would be closer than the Bucks/Celtics, especially with all of the trades Philly made and their pretty clear starting lineup advantage over the Raptors (though the Raptors have more depth and the best player in the series especially with Embiid not at full strength).

I don't think the Celtics should be considered a toss up for Bucks either. They should definitely be favored over us. I am not so sure why you would say the 76ers have a clear starting lineup advantage.

Gasol << Embid
Lowry = Simmons
Leonard >> Butler
Siakam > Harris
Danny Green = Reddick

For what it is worth, not even liberty ballers has the 76ers with a clear starting lineup advantage (https://www.libertyballers.com/2019/4/26/18518218/ranking-the-16-best-players-in-the-sixers-raptors-series). You add in that embiid is in really bad shape right now, and hard to see where they have an advantage

Side note, you still trying to argue Johathon Simmons is a quality rotation player after Brown benched him?
LibertyBallers took a big drop in quality when Derek Bodner and a couple others left a couple years ago.  Having Harris below Gasol and Green is nonsense.  I'd also question Siakam being rated 4th.

Regular season starting lineup comparisons. 
                              Min     Offrtg        Defrtg       Netrtg
Sixers starting 5:     161   119.0   101.4   17.6
Raptors starting 5:   161   119.5   107.3   12.2   

Assuming Embiid is healthy, I'd take the Sixers starting 5.  All of the Sixers 5 are offensive threats that have to be accounted for.  Gasol and Green really aren't.

This strikes me as one of your "blindly jump in defend the 76ers post against some perceived injustice type posts" that honestly become difficult to tell exactly who and what you are arguing about. Moranis argued they had a clear starting 5 difference, which I disagreed with and broke down the starting 5's against each other and think they are pretty even.

Both teams had two all-stars (Lowry, Leonard, simmons and Embid). Both teams have a guy that could have been an all-star and have a good chance of being again in the future (I would be shocked if a healthy Siakam doesn't make team next year, and butler should too, Siakam improving Butler slightly declining). Than you have a very strong player in Gasol and Harris with Gasol declining and Harris improving/in his prime. Reddick and Green clearly both seem to very strong role players with Green maybe a slight advantage as a two player.

Again pretty even starting 5's, and that seems kind of hard to argue with. Is that what you are trying to argue?

Edit, it also seems bizarre to say a guy that is shooting 45% from 3 for the year doesn't need to be accounted for as an offensive player? Woof that is a rough take. Does he have to shoot the league record for 3pt% ? Gasol can score on the low post, from 3 and is a highly skiller passer, but is somehow less of an offensive threat than Reddick? That is a spicy take!
I stated my opinion and you go off the deep end again.  I even provide some stats rather than doing a rough comparison like you did.  Toronto has a good starting 5 but I think the Sixers starting 5 is better again assuming a healthy Embiid.  Now Toronto's 6 through 8 is certainly better. 

Gasol shot 2 3pt shots and 7.2 shots overall and 2 FTAs for Toronto in the regular season.  You need to defend him but you don't need to game plan for him.  Redick on the other hand is the energizer bunny.  He'll run you through screens all night long.  He's a key piece of the Sixers offense (40% on 8.0 3 pt shots and 13.5 shots overall).

what about my post was "going off the deep end?" i was literally trying to figure out what point you were trying to make and rephrased what the discussion was between me and Moranis... you must work in a cemetery if that is too much excitement for ya lol
Your 1st sentence was off the deep end and I'm not sure how you had any difficulty understanding my post. 

BTW in your rough comparison, you're short changing Harris.  He was in the conversation to make the allstar team for the west.

I mean tazz, you’ve admitted that you defend the 76ers so much because of embiid and it’s obviously pretty strong. Multiple People who were not trolling you at all, were actually straight up baffled to find out you were a Celtics fan (And I’ve defended you as before on the forum). But you can’t act like it’s crazy for me to think you are blindly defending the 76ers.

As for Harris, I don’t think I am underrating him. He has a very nice offensive game and puts up some good box score numbers but he is a very weak perimeter defender. Someone like siakam could very well end up being an all star game starter in the next few years. Lowe and other respected nba analysts have called him the talk of the nba. https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/2/14/18224965/pascal-siakam-toronto-raptors-future

Re: ESPN ECS predictions
« Reply #36 on: April 26, 2019, 09:41:37 PM »

Offline GreenEnvy

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Toronto soundly beats the Philly. Their best chance would’ve been against Milwaukee. They matchup poorly against the Raptors and Celtics. Toronto in 5.

Our series is going to be fun. We started as the hunted but have become the hunter. We know them. They know us. It’s important to steal game 1 and get them uncomfortable. Take what they’ve worked for all season, HCA. Then all the pressure will be on them in game 2. Boston in 6.
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Re: ESPN ECS predictions
« Reply #37 on: April 26, 2019, 10:58:39 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Jackie MacMullan picked against the Celtics? How sad.

She watched the team all year
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Re: ESPN ECS predictions
« Reply #38 on: April 27, 2019, 07:08:44 AM »

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My ratings of the players would be

Best player = Kawhi Leonard
2nd and 3rd best player = Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler
4th and 5th best player = Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry

Unsure where I'd go next. I'd probably go with Serge Ibaka as the next best player over Ben Simmons and T.Harris.

I am not that comfortable with Simmons due to his lack of jump-shooting and need to play near the basket on a team where he doesn't get to that often enough to be an effective halfcourt player.

Tobias Harris is an above average offensive player but a below average defensive player. He plays on a team where 3 guys have the ball more than him and he is unable to fully exhibit his offensive talents. So his impact on games is frequently fairly low. Doesn't change games much.

I question how much impact those players have versus a guy like Danny Green. A low usage 3&D guy who helps you on both ends of the floor. Can handle, pass and rebound well too.

I look at JJ Redick as the worst starter on either team. He is a lousy defender nowadays. A liability to be picked on by Kyle Lowry.

Marc Gasol is the 2nd worst starter. I presume he will start over Ibaka to put extra size on Embiid. Again, defensive weakness to be exploited. Attacking Gasol is Ben Simmons' best opportunity to be an offensive threat for Philly in the halfcourt. Ibaka can and will stop that threat.

C: Embiid >> Gasol or Embiid > Ibaka
F: Harris < Siakam
F: Butler < Kawhi
G: Simmons = Green
G: Redick < Lowry

Re: ESPN ECS predictions
« Reply #39 on: April 27, 2019, 09:54:02 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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76ers starting 5....

Re: ESPN ECS predictions
« Reply #40 on: April 27, 2019, 10:02:45 PM »

Offline gouki88

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76ers starting 5....
Embiid with a beautiful no-show
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Re: ESPN ECS predictions
« Reply #41 on: April 27, 2019, 10:44:26 PM »

Online Moranis

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76ers starting 5....
Embiid with a beautiful no-show
Embiid was +4 in 30 minutes. They lost about a point a minute with him on the bench.
« Last Edit: April 28, 2019, 08:05:24 AM by Moranis »
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Re: ESPN ECS predictions
« Reply #42 on: April 28, 2019, 09:14:32 AM »

Offline Sophomore

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76ers starting 5....
Embiid with a beautiful no-show
Embiid was +4 in 30 minutes. They lost about a point a minute with him on the bench.

His +/- was fine, but was he responsible for that number or the other guys sharing the floor with him? When you shoot 5-18, as he did, you are rarely a positive. He continues to force shots in big games and miss them in bunches - one reason we beat them last year.
« Last Edit: April 28, 2019, 09:33:09 AM by Sophomore »

Re: ESPN ECS predictions
« Reply #43 on: April 28, 2019, 09:20:46 AM »

Offline Sophomore

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Experts' picks: Who will reach the East finals? https://es.pn/2W9fbJ5
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5 picked the C's, only 1 person thinks it is less than 6 games (he picked the Bucks in 5).

Only 2 picked the Sixers over the Raptors. That is pretty surprising as I figured that would be more of a toss up.

How would it be a toss up? Raptors won 7 more games than 76ers and have home court advantage. On top of that the 76ers have a pretty banged up Embiid and Leonard is the healthiest he has been. I think most would expect Toronto in 5.
But why doesn't that also apply to the Bucks/C's series?  After all the Bucks have an even greater win advantage and obviously also have home court.

And to be clear, more of a toss up, does not mean a toss up.  It means closer to a toss up than the other series as in I would have expected the experts to think the Sixers/Raptors would be closer than the Bucks/Celtics, especially with all of the trades Philly made and their pretty clear starting lineup advantage over the Raptors (though the Raptors have more depth and the best player in the series especially with Embiid not at full strength).

I don't think the Celtics should be considered a toss up for Bucks either. They should definitely be favored over us. I am not so sure why you would say the 76ers have a clear starting lineup advantage.

Gasol << Embid
Lowry = Simmons
Leonard >> Butler
Siakam > Harris
Danny Green = Reddick

For what it is worth, not even liberty ballers has the 76ers with a clear starting lineup advantage (https://www.libertyballers.com/2019/4/26/18518218/ranking-the-16-best-players-in-the-sixers-raptors-series). You add in that embiid is in really bad shape right now, and hard to see where they have an advantage

Side note, you still trying to argue Johathon Simmons is a quality rotation player after Brown benched him?
LibertyBallers took a big drop in quality when Derek Bodner and a couple others left a couple years ago.  Having Harris below Gasol and Green is nonsense.  I'd also question Siakam being rated 4th.

Regular season starting lineup comparisons. 
                              Min     Offrtg        Defrtg       Netrtg
Sixers starting 5:     161   119.0   101.4   17.6
Raptors starting 5:   161   119.5   107.3   12.2   

Assuming Embiid is healthy, I'd take the Sixers starting 5.  All of the Sixers 5 are offensive threats that have to be accounted for.  Gasol and Green really aren't.

This strikes me as one of your "blindly jump in defend the 76ers post against some perceived injustice type posts" that honestly become difficult to tell exactly who and what you are arguing about. Moranis argued they had a clear starting 5 difference, which I disagreed with and broke down the starting 5's against each other and think they are pretty even.

Both teams had two all-stars (Lowry, Leonard, simmons and Embid). Both teams have a guy that could have been an all-star and have a good chance of being again in the future (I would be shocked if a healthy Siakam doesn't make team next year, and butler should too, Siakam improving Butler slightly declining). Than you have a very strong player in Gasol and Harris with Gasol declining and Harris improving/in his prime. Reddick and Green clearly both seem to very strong role players with Green maybe a slight advantage as a two player.

Again pretty even starting 5's, and that seems kind of hard to argue with. Is that what you are trying to argue?

Edit, it also seems bizarre to say a guy that is shooting 45% from 3 for the year doesn't need to be accounted for as an offensive player? Woof that is a rough take. Does he have to shoot the league record for 3pt% ? Gasol can score on the low post, from 3 and is a highly skiller passer, but is somehow less of an offensive threat than Reddick? That is a spicy take!
Kawhi is the best player in the series, but Embiid, Butler, and Simmons are the next 3.  Harris is in the same general range as Lowry and Siakam.  Redick is probably ahead of Gasol at this point and Green is pretty clearly the worst starter.  Top to bottom the Sixers have the best starting 5 in that series (and frankly would give GS a run for their money as the best starting 5 in the sport) and it isn't really all that close.  Kawhi though is the best player and the Raptors have a lot more quality depth as I really like the mix with Ibaka, VanVleet, and Powell plus I think you could actually trust Meeks, McCaw, and Lin if you really needed them.

Now don't get me wrong, I do think Toronto will win the series, probably in 7, but that is a good deal based on Embiid's health as much as anything else.

We’ll see what the series shows. Last night Siakam was a very tidy 12-15 from the field for 29 points, including 3-4 from 3, and pulled down 7 boards. He was a pest on defense.

I don’t expect him to continue to be *that* strong - that’s all-NBA stuff - but he’s very very good, especially against a team with questionable wing defense. (Yes, Butler is good, but Redick and Simmons can’t check him, and Gasol has sand bags around his ankles.) I think you underrate him.

Re: ESPN ECS predictions
« Reply #44 on: April 28, 2019, 09:39:03 AM »

Offline gouki88

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76ers starting 5....
Embiid with a beautiful no-show
Embiid was +4 in 30 minutes. They lost about a point a minute with him on the bench.
Really weird to come to the defence of a guy who shot 5-18, wasn’t a great defensive presence and who also admitted he played poorly
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PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
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C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)