The Reasons Ainge Reached For JB

[ederson]

So we have JB today who nobody disagrees is not very good
We have also the JB from last season's playoffs who again nobody disagrees was an excellent 21yo player.


How can anyone detect which one is the real JB?

Since its the playoffs when the tough gets going and JB really got it going shouldn't we be a bit more patient with him? I don't remember anyone last spring talking about Murray or (for gods shake) bender.

I wouldn't mind trading him a bit but let's be fair to the kid.

They're both, collectively, the "real" JB.  The question I'd love to be able to answer is why JB's development has taken such a backward / downward turn between the playoffs and the first few months of this season.

That is an interesting question . Inexperience, tasting the role of being A dog and now having to take a step back... Just guessing

But it is not that uncommon. Look at Donovan Mitchell. Again I ll say that I trust the culture of this team to set him back on track

[playdream]

So we have JB today who nobody disagrees is not very good
We have also the JB from last season's playoffs who again nobody disagrees was an excellent 21yo player.


How can anyone detect which one is the real JB?

Since its the playoffs when the tough gets going and JB really got it going shouldn't we be a bit more patient with him? I don't remember anyone last spring talking about Murray or (for gods shake) bender.

I wouldn't mind trading him a bit but let's be fair to the kid.

Don't forget the ECF G7 choking JB

[mmmmm]

So we have JB today who nobody disagrees is not very good
We have also the JB from last season's playoffs who again nobody disagrees was an excellent 21yo player.


How can anyone detect which one is the real JB?

Since its the playoffs when the tough gets going and JB really got it going shouldn't we be a bit more patient with him? I don't remember anyone last spring talking about Murray or (for gods shake) bender.

I wouldn't mind trading him a bit but let's be fair to the kid.

They're both, collectively, the "real" JB.  The question I'd love to be able to answer is why JB's development has taken such a backward / downward turn between the playoffs and the first few months of this season.

 I think his friends death and Jabari Birds Meltdown along with Jaylens mom's involvement has played a role.

Maybe.

Or we could acknowledge that all this is based on a pretty small statistical sample and maybe it's just a shooting slump.

Literally the only number of real importance for Jaylen that is "down" is his 3PT shooting - specifically, his wide-open threes are way down.  These are shots with no defender within 6 feet and almost all shooters hit them at a much higher rate than merely 'open' or tightly guarded shots.   Hitting these at a high rate pads your overall 3PT% out and makes up for how much worse most players shoot against tighter coverage.   Last year, Jaylen hit his wide-open threes at a very nice 43.8% clip.  This year, he's hitting them at a miserable 25% rate.   And that is dragging his overall 3PT% down -- and as a consequence, dragging all his scoring numbers down.

But it's important to note that that is on a sample size of just 56 such wide-open threes.   And he's taken just 107 3PA overall.   Within his set of 78 misses, there have probably been a dozen shots that were in-and-out, just-misses.   Because that's the frustrating difference between a hot streak and a cold streak.   If half those fall-in, then he's shooting in the mid-30s and we aren't having this discussion.   

Even a short, hot-shooting streak of just a few games would 'cure' his averages.   Last year, he had 19 games where he sank 3 threes or more including multiple games of 4/6 or better shooting and even two games where he shot 6/10 & 7/10.   A single 7/10 game right now would raise his 3PT% from it's current miserable 27% all the way up to 31%.

No guarantee that happens, of course.

[PhoSita]

What's weird about Jaylen's bad outside shooting this year is that before this year, regular season and playoffs, he had hit 216 out of 576 three point attempts for a 37.5% average.  That's a pretty good sample.

This year, he's hitting below 30%.  In three months of action he hasn't averaged better than 32% in any month.  Home or away, he shoots 30% or below. 

So it's not like he's been up and down.  He's just been bad, period.

[trickybilly]

So we have JB today who nobody disagrees is not very good
We have also the JB from last season's playoffs who again nobody disagrees was an excellent 21yo player.


How can anyone detect which one is the real JB?

Since its the playoffs when the tough gets going and JB really got it going shouldn't we be a bit more patient with him? I don't remember anyone last spring talking about Murray or (for gods shake) bender.

I wouldn't mind trading him a bit but let's be fair to the kid.

They're both, collectively, the "real" JB.  The question I'd love to be able to answer is why JB's development has taken such a backward / downward turn between the playoffs and the first few months of this season.

 I think his friends death and Jabari Birds Meltdown along with Jaylens mom's involvement has played a role.

What's that about? What's his mom involved in?

[RockinRyA]

 Luigi Datome, Gerald Wallace, Tayshaun Prince, Evan Turner, Jeff Green, Crowder, Coty Clarke, John Holland, Chris Babb, Chris Johnson.

 Those are the SFs A.P. After Pierce. It was a long miserable struggle to find the 6'6" athletic, strong, cover anyone type of athlete that Pierce was and Jaylen is. With that Said Jaylen is an important player on nearly any roster. Hes an asset.

 Hield was the best player at the time of the draft and Buddy is a perfect fit for today's game. He's a lights out shooter and solid defender with length.

 Jamal Murray was the best long term prospect by a considerable margain. Period. He drafted out of need instead of taking the best player on the board.

 He didn't know we were getting Tatum and Hayward, if he did. Rest assured he would have went in a different direction.

Give me a break, Murray is so overhyped here. That game he had against us was a fluke. He is a weak athlete and is shooting 42.6/29.3 for the season. PER of 14.4. Poor defensive upside. Thinks he's a lot better than he is. And has proved nothing in the playoffs.

Hield is 26 and is 9 months younger than Kyrie. Again, limited defensive upside.

Funny how these threads never pop up after Jaylen has a good game.

Destroyed. **** TP

[Celtics4ever]

This year, he's hitting below 30%.  In three months of action he hasn't averaged better than 32% in any month.  Home or away, he shoots 30% or below. 

So it's not like he's been up and down.  He's just been bad, period.

Poor shot selection can do that to a guy....

[Moranis]

 Luigi Datome, Gerald Wallace, Tayshaun Prince, Evan Turner, Jeff Green, Crowder, Coty Clarke, John Holland, Chris Babb, Chris Johnson.

 Those are the SFs A.P. After Pierce. It was a long miserable struggle to find the 6'6" athletic, strong, cover anyone type of athlete that Pierce was and Jaylen is. With that Said Jaylen is an important player on nearly any roster. Hes an asset.

 Hield was the best player at the time of the draft and Buddy is a perfect fit for today's game. He's a lights out shooter and solid defender with length.

 Jamal Murray was the best long term prospect by a considerable margain. Period. He drafted out of need instead of taking the best player on the board.

 He didn't know we were getting Tatum and Hayward, if he did. Rest assured he would have went in a different direction.

Give me a break, Murray is so overhyped here. That game he had against us was a fluke. He is a weak athlete and is shooting 42.6/29.3 for the season. PER of 14.4. Poor defensive upside. Thinks he's a lot better than he is. And has proved nothing in the playoffs.

Hield is 26 and is 9 months younger than Kyrie. Again, limited defensive upside.

Funny how these threads never pop up after Jaylen has a good game.

You do know all of those things you chide Murray for, Brown is worse at this year (well not the poor defensive upside or playoffs since he has never been in them).  I mean Brown's PER this year is 10.4 and he is shooting just 27.1 from 3 and 48.7 from 2 which equates to just 40.9 from the field.  Murray is the #2 option on the 2nd best team in the West.  So he is performing better with more on the line.  And he is younger than Brown.

[gouki88]

 Luigi Datome, Gerald Wallace, Tayshaun Prince, Evan Turner, Jeff Green, Crowder, Coty Clarke, John Holland, Chris Babb, Chris Johnson.

 Those are the SFs A.P. After Pierce. It was a long miserable struggle to find the 6'6" athletic, strong, cover anyone type of athlete that Pierce was and Jaylen is. With that Said Jaylen is an important player on nearly any roster. Hes an asset.

 Hield was the best player at the time of the draft and Buddy is a perfect fit for today's game. He's a lights out shooter and solid defender with length.

 Jamal Murray was the best long term prospect by a considerable margain. Period. He drafted out of need instead of taking the best player on the board.

 He didn't know we were getting Tatum and Hayward, if he did. Rest assured he would have went in a different direction.

Give me a break, Murray is so overhyped here. That game he had against us was a fluke. He is a weak athlete and is shooting 42.6/29.3 for the season. PER of 14.4. Poor defensive upside. Thinks he's a lot better than he is. And has proved nothing in the playoffs.

Hield is 26 and is 9 months younger than Kyrie. Again, limited defensive upside.

Funny how these threads never pop up after Jaylen has a good game.

You do know all of those things you chide Murray for, Brown is worse at this year (well not the poor defensive upside or playoffs since he has never been in them).  I mean Brown's PER this year is 10.4 and he is shooting just 27.1 from 3 and 48.7 from 2 which equates to just 40.9 from the field.  Murray is the #2 option on the 2nd best team in the West.  So he is performing better with more on the line.  And he is younger than Brown.

Yeah, but considering the OP stated Murray was the 'best long-term prospect by a considerable margin', it's completely fair to make these criticisms. Especially when Murray is a far worse defensive player than JB, and has a lesser ceiling due to his lesser athleticism.

Really not sure why you replied as you did

[Moranis]

 Luigi Datome, Gerald Wallace, Tayshaun Prince, Evan Turner, Jeff Green, Crowder, Coty Clarke, John Holland, Chris Babb, Chris Johnson.

 Those are the SFs A.P. After Pierce. It was a long miserable struggle to find the 6'6" athletic, strong, cover anyone type of athlete that Pierce was and Jaylen is. With that Said Jaylen is an important player on nearly any roster. Hes an asset.

 Hield was the best player at the time of the draft and Buddy is a perfect fit for today's game. He's a lights out shooter and solid defender with length.

 Jamal Murray was the best long term prospect by a considerable margain. Period. He drafted out of need instead of taking the best player on the board.

 He didn't know we were getting Tatum and Hayward, if he did. Rest assured he would have went in a different direction.

Give me a break, Murray is so overhyped here. That game he had against us was a fluke. He is a weak athlete and is shooting 42.6/29.3 for the season. PER of 14.4. Poor defensive upside. Thinks he's a lot better than he is. And has proved nothing in the playoffs.

Hield is 26 and is 9 months younger than Kyrie. Again, limited defensive upside.

Funny how these threads never pop up after Jaylen has a good game.

You do know all of those things you chide Murray for, Brown is worse at this year (well not the poor defensive upside or playoffs since he has never been in them).  I mean Brown's PER this year is 10.4 and he is shooting just 27.1 from 3 and 48.7 from 2 which equates to just 40.9 from the field.  Murray is the #2 option on the 2nd best team in the West.  So he is performing better with more on the line.  And he is younger than Brown.

Yeah, but considering the OP stated Murray was the 'best long-term prospect by a considerable margin', it's completely fair to make these criticisms. Especially when Murray is a far worse defensive player than JB, and has a lesser ceiling due to his lesser athleticism.

Really not sure why you replied as you did

Ah but this is a thread about Brown being a reach.  I just think it is a bit disingenuous to discredit players for things when the player being supported is actually worse at those things.

For the record, I would have made the reported trade with Philly (obviously assuming it was on the table).  I was all over this blog at the time saying I would have taken the trade.  That trade of course was 3 (and salary filler) for Noel, Covington, 22, and 24.  I would have then tried to consolidate some of the picks and tried to move back up, especially depending on who was available and where (I even made a thread where I hypothesized that Brown might have still been on the board at 8 and depending on what Sacto thought of him, might have been willing to trade with Boston rather than Phoenix).  I am also on record saying that I would have taken a chance on Bender had Boston stayed there (that obviously doesn't look great now, though I do think whomever was drafted by Boston would have ended up better than that same person being drafted by Phoenix - though likely not to the point that would have made Bender a better pick than Brown). 

The draft is a crapshoot for the people that have the information, for us fans it is even moreso since we don't get to the see the workouts, medical information, interviews, etc.  That is why it is imperative for crappy teams to get as many picks as they can, so they have more bites at the apple. 

[Vermont Green]

You do know all of those things you chide Murray for, Brown is worse at this year (well not the poor defensive upside or playoffs since he has never been in them).  I mean Brown's PER this year is 10.4 and he is shooting just 27.1 from 3 and 48.7 from 2 which equates to just 40.9 from the field.  Murray is the #2 option on the 2nd best team in the West.  So he is performing better with more on the line.  And he is younger than Brown.

I don't think this was intended to be a debate about whether or not Brown is or will be better than Murray.  They are both promising prospects.  Drafting is hard.  Murray may end up better than Brown (I don't think so based on what each has shown so far in totality) but that doesn't automatically make Brown a bad pick or a reach.

This isn't baseball where an average player can get hot in the playoffs and become a star.  The way that Brown played in the playoffs last season is not a fluke.  You have to have ability to do that.  You can't just get hot and play that well for that long (while fighting an injury if you remember).  On the other hand, high ability players can have stretches of bad play just like average ability players can.

Brown has a rawness to him, kind of like Marcus Smart.  His "touch" is still developing.  Murray has more touch now but he will never have the physicality that Brown has.  I remain happy with Brown.  He is the player we saw in the playoffs.

[nickagneta]

I don't get where people are declaring Murray better than Brown by comparing numbers from only this year. You need to look at their total body of work not just the 30 or so games from this year. If Jaylen is hitting his threes at an average of his first two years, it's pretty easy to see Brown is the better player, especially given his reduced role limiting his ability to put up big numbers and seeing what he did during the playoffs which are played at a different level than regular season games.

[Moranis]

I don't get where people are declaring Murray better than Brown by comparing numbers from only this year. You need to look at their total body of work not just the 30 or so games from this year. If Jaylen is hitting his threes at an average of his first two years, it's pretty easy to see Brown is the better player, especially given his reduced role limiting his ability to put up big numbers and seeing what he did during the playoffs which are played at a different level than regular season games.

Murray scores more for his career.  Murray has more winshares in his career.  Murray averages more assists.  Their rebound numbers are comparable (which is pretty sad since Brown is much larger).  Murray has a better VORP and BPM. 

You don't have to look at this year to reach the conclusion that Murray has performed better than Brown in their entire careers.  Brown is a better defender, but right now he has been a worse overall offensive player. 

[mmmmm]

I don't get where people are declaring Murray better than Brown by comparing numbers from only this year. You need to look at their total body of work not just the 30 or so games from this year. If Jaylen is hitting his threes at an average of his first two years, it's pretty easy to see Brown is the better player, especially given his reduced role limiting his ability to put up big numbers and seeing what he did during the playoffs which are played at a different level than regular season games.

Murray scores more for his career.  Murray has more winshares in his career.  Murray averages more assists.  Their rebound numbers are comparable (which is pretty sad since Brown is much larger).  Murray has a better VORP and BPM. 

You don't have to look at this year to reach the conclusion that Murray has performed better than Brown in their entire careers.  Brown is a better defender, but right now he has been a worse overall offensive player.

Well, Murray is definitely a more prolific offensive player, has played more minutes and gets far more touches of the ball than Brown in their respective roles.    The PER, VORP and BPM are all going to be affected by the higher usage so it's not surprising that Murray shows better numbers there.

Brown's career DRB% of 13.8% is a fairly clear step up from Murray's 10.3%, though.  'Not sure why you are saying their rebounding is comparable.

Where Brown's value clearly shows is on the defensive end.   Using last year's much larger sample, it is illustrative to look at their shot contention numbers.

Murray played 31.7 mpg, defended 5.3 shots per game, allowing his opponents to shoot +6.0% above their average FG%.

Brown played 30.7 mpg, defended 9.4 shots per game, holding his opponents to shoot -5.7% below their average FG%.

So, Brown (a) contested far more shots per game and (b) was massively, massively better at suppressing their effectiveness.   This shows a glimpse of the huge difference in their defensive value.   The sample sizes were smaller in their rookie year, but Brown held a distinct edge that year as well, -4.3% compared to -0.9% on more shots defended (5.3 vs 3.3).

This year, Brown actually started off the year pretty rocky on defense, with uncharacteristic positive DFG% differentials in the first few weeks.   But that seems to have turned around and he's already driven that number negative, to -1.1%.  I expect by the end of the year he'll finish again with a much better differential on more shots defended.   Murray has done better this year than last year, with a differential of -0.2%.  That (league average) may be his ceiling on defense, though.   Brown's shot-contention numbers put him among the upper tier defenders in the NBA.

I don't want to belittle Brown's struggles on the offensive end.   As I said, he's really struggled with that 3PT shot and he needs to snap out of it.  But if he can get on a little tear and bring that back up to even 'average', his massive edge in defensive value makes him an extremely valuable player.

[PhoSita]

Murray's shooting struggles this year are almost as mystifying as Jaylen's.

My thing with Murray was always that he looked like a natural scorer / combo guard type, and the path to being productive and valuable in today's NBA when that's your skillset and physical profile is a lot easier.

Jaylen has all the physical tools but coming out of college it wasn't clear what was going to distinguish him at the NBA level apart from his athleticism.  He doesn't handle, finish, pass, or board at a particularly high level. 

Last year it looked like the answer was going to be defense and three point shooting.  Excellent, switchable defense plus above average outside shooting combined with Jaylen's size and athleticism would make him a really valuable piece on any team.

Without the shooting, though, he's basically in the Andre Roberson vein, at best.  So he really needs to get his shot back.  He's still a long way off from being especially good at anything apart from defense.  Maybe a Rondae Hollis-Jefferson type, although I think RHJ has a better handle and can play more at PF.


Murray's value is obviously very dependent on his shooting as well, but his upside seems higher in that area, given that he's shown the ability to be a pull-up threat from deep out of the pick and roll.