Author Topic: Paul Manafort bank and tax fraud trial  (Read 11110 times)

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Re: Paul Manafort bank and tax fraud trial
« Reply #15 on: August 02, 2018, 05:05:53 PM »

Online saltlover

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Personally, I think the outcome of Manafort's trial will have a big impact on Mueller's investigation.  The assumption is that this is the current highest-profile person in the indictments and prosecutors would/should have a slamdunk case with a preponderance of evidence.

- If he's found not guilty (without rampant suspicion/accusation someone rigged it), I suspect Mueller will take a lot of heat for not producing more with his investigation.
- if found guilty, I suspect Trump will come at Mueller hard and directly to cut off the investigation to stop any more progress that could lead to Trump himself or those close to him being indicted.

even if convicted, I suspect Manafort is not going to flip on Trump.  Probably the one person they won't get to flip.

The conviction rate in federal courts is 93% (as of 2012). Not looking good for Manafort there, but I bet Trump pardons him.

Yeah, the Feds generally don’t take cases to trial unless they think they have overwhelming evidence. All a defendant can generally hope for is a sympathetic jury. That excludes the few cases that never should have been brought, such as the Clemens perjury trial.

I guess I start to wonder if there's a juror who is one of the Trump dead-enders. The president keeps tweeting that this whole thing is a hoax and rigged. Can he reach one of the jurors and get a hung jury to prevent a conviction?  None of us has ever seen something like this before, where the president has a direct line to everybody with an internet connection, including the jurors, and is making flat statements that the prosecution's case is a witch hunt and a fraud.

Probably not for this trial.  Definitely not for the trial that will have DC as its jury pool.  There’s simply not enough Trumpers around these parts that they wouldn’t have been able to exclude them from being empaneled. 

Re: Paul Manafort bank and tax fraud trial
« Reply #16 on: August 02, 2018, 05:32:38 PM »

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I think this will all be for nothing. I see an immediate pardon coming for him.

Re: Paul Manafort bank and tax fraud trial
« Reply #17 on: August 02, 2018, 07:09:56 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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Manafort was notoriously dirty long before Trump's campaign. One of the "Torture Lobby" in the 80s. And it looks like they've got him dead to rights outside of the President of the United States openly trying to taint the jury. He should never get out of prison again.

I don't really have much to offer beyond that so here's a picture of a sweet ostrich skin jacket - just $15,000, and eventually your freedom:


Do they make that in orange?

I never thought that anything would ever top Ken Lay's gilded umbrella stand, and yet here we are. ::)
« Last Edit: August 02, 2018, 10:00:33 PM by Beat LA »

Re: Paul Manafort bank and tax fraud trial
« Reply #18 on: August 02, 2018, 07:58:15 PM »

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Heard on tv that Manfort spent close to a million dollars on suits. Suits!!!! Just wow.

Re: Paul Manafort bank and tax fraud trial
« Reply #19 on: August 02, 2018, 08:04:06 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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Heard on tv that Manfort spent close to a million dollars on suits. Suits!!!! Just wow.

He clearly fell victim to the let's say "power" of Men's Warehouse commercials. ;) ::) ;D

Re: Paul Manafort bank and tax fraud trial
« Reply #20 on: August 02, 2018, 08:16:47 PM »

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Heard on tv that Manfort spent close to a million dollars on suits. Suits!!!! Just wow.

He clearly fell victim to the let's say "power" of Men's Warehouse commercials. ;) ::) ;D
Lol....but my guess is his suits are a bit more upscale than Men's Warehouse.

Re: Paul Manafort bank and tax fraud trial
« Reply #21 on: August 02, 2018, 10:03:12 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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Heard on tv that Manfort spent close to a million dollars on suits. Suits!!!! Just wow.

He clearly fell victim to the let's say "power" of Men's Warehouse commercials. ;) ::) ;D
Lol....but my guess is his suits are a bit more upscale than Men's Warehouse.

Hey, hey, you're gonna like the way you look. I guarantee it. ;) ::) ;D

Re: Paul Manafort bank and tax fraud trial
« Reply #22 on: August 03, 2018, 07:50:23 AM »

Online Sophomore

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Personally, I think the outcome of Manafort's trial will have a big impact on Mueller's investigation.  The assumption is that this is the current highest-profile person in the indictments and prosecutors would/should have a slamdunk case with a preponderance of evidence.

- If he's found not guilty (without rampant suspicion/accusation someone rigged it), I suspect Mueller will take a lot of heat for not producing more with his investigation.
- if found guilty, I suspect Trump will come at Mueller hard and directly to cut off the investigation to stop any more progress that could lead to Trump himself or those close to him being indicted.

even if convicted, I suspect Manafort is not going to flip on Trump.  Probably the one person they won't get to flip.

The conviction rate in federal courts is 93% (as of 2012). Not looking good for Manafort there, but I bet Trump pardons him.

Yeah, the Feds generally don’t take cases to trial unless they think they have overwhelming evidence. All a defendant can generally hope for is a sympathetic jury. That excludes the few cases that never should have been brought, such as the Clemens perjury trial.

I guess I start to wonder if there's a juror who is one of the Trump dead-enders. The president keeps tweeting that this whole thing is a hoax and rigged. Can he reach one of the jurors and get a hung jury to prevent a conviction?  None of us has ever seen something like this before, where the president has a direct line to everybody with an internet connection, including the jurors, and is making flat statements that the prosecution's case is a witch hunt and a fraud.

Probably not for this trial.  Definitely not for the trial that will have DC as its jury pool.  There’s simply not enough Trumpers around these parts that they wouldn’t have been able to exclude them from being empaneled.

Making a very back-of-the-envelope calculation (actually, no envelope) I think he got about 30% across the counties that the jury should be drawn from.

According to the website for the E.D. Va., there are four divisions in the district. The Alexandria Division (where Manafort is being tried) "consists of the City of Alexandria and the counties of Arlington, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William and Stafford, as well as any other city or town within the geographical boundaries of those counties." http://www.vaed.uscourts.gov/jury/jurisdiction.html

Trump won Stafford by nine points and got about 37% in Prince William, the largest county in the division. https://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/virginia/

Even if they limited the draw to Alexandria city (which I would not expect) he got about 18% there. He only needs one juror who decides he's going to make a political stand against the "Mueller witch hunt".

« Last Edit: August 03, 2018, 08:41:35 AM by Sophomore »

Re: Paul Manafort bank and tax fraud trial
« Reply #23 on: August 03, 2018, 08:36:31 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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I think this will all be for nothing. I see an immediate pardon coming for him.
it wouldn't surprise me but 3 questions come to mind:
1. these charges aren't related to collusion/conspiracy but tax evasion.  what excuse would Trump have to pardon him without it looking like he's out to help his buddy?
2. would there be any kind of negative response from the Republicans in Congress?  would seem to be an implicit approval of Trump's actions during the campaign and quite probably give him the green light to pardon everyone connected to him without repercussions.
3. what would be the public reaction?  Sure, Dems in office and those against Trump would be up in arms, and I think justifiably so, but how many people outside that group will speak out against a pardon.

Re: Paul Manafort bank and tax fraud trial
« Reply #24 on: August 03, 2018, 09:31:34 AM »

Offline Cman

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I think this will all be for nothing. I see an immediate pardon coming for him.
it wouldn't surprise me but 3 questions come to mind:
1. these charges aren't related to collusion/conspiracy but tax evasion.  what excuse would Trump have to pardon him without it looking like he's out to help his buddy?
2. would there be any kind of negative response from the Republicans in Congress?  would seem to be an implicit approval of Trump's actions during the campaign and quite probably give him the green light to pardon everyone connected to him without repercussions.
3. what would be the public reaction?  Sure, Dems in office and those against Trump would be up in arms, and I think justifiably so, but how many people outside that group will speak out against a pardon.

Great points. And my guess is that's why Mueller will keep this trial all about tax evasion/fraud. Nothing about collusion.
Celtics fan for life.

Re: Paul Manafort bank and tax fraud trial
« Reply #25 on: August 03, 2018, 09:37:12 AM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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Latest from the trial:

Manafort was broke by January 2016.
His consulting firm was losing money, he used up lines of credit at banks, etc.
Then he offered to run Donald Trump's campaign for free.

The bolded is where the bodies are buried.

Reminds me of this classic interview from the campaign:

Seems legit to me!

Re: Paul Manafort bank and tax fraud trial
« Reply #26 on: August 03, 2018, 10:29:58 AM »

Offline blackbird

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I think this will all be for nothing. I see an immediate pardon coming for him.
it wouldn't surprise me but 3 questions come to mind:
1. these charges aren't related to collusion/conspiracy but tax evasion.  what excuse would Trump have to pardon him without it looking like he's out to help his buddy?
2. would there be any kind of negative response from the Republicans in Congress?  would seem to be an implicit approval of Trump's actions during the campaign and quite probably give him the green light to pardon everyone connected to him without repercussions.
3. what would be the public reaction?  Sure, Dems in office and those against Trump would be up in arms, and I think justifiably so, but how many people outside that group will speak out against a pardon.

Great points. And my guess is that's why Mueller will keep this trial all about tax evasion/fraud. Nothing about collusion.

It's clear at this point that Trump's base will support him no matter what, including a pardon for Manafort regardless of the charges. And therefore Republicans in Congress won't do anything beyond clicking their tongues and shaking their heads; some would even praise the pardon.

Democrats, of course, would call for impeachment if Trump ate a salad with the dinner fork. Pardoning Manafort will make them completely unhinged, even though they have to expect it by now.

Assuming Independents actually exist anymore, I'd hope this would be the nail in the coffin of their Trump support.

Re: Paul Manafort bank and tax fraud trial
« Reply #27 on: August 03, 2018, 11:22:28 AM »

Offline Pucaccia

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I think this will all be for nothing. I see an immediate pardon coming for him.
it wouldn't surprise me but 3 questions come to mind:
1. these charges aren't related to collusion/conspiracy but tax evasion.  what excuse would Trump have to pardon him without it looking like he's out to help his buddy?
2. would there be any kind of negative response from the Republicans in Congress?  would seem to be an implicit approval of Trump's actions during the campaign and quite probably give him the green light to pardon everyone connected to him without repercussions.
3. what would be the public reaction?  Sure, Dems in office and those against Trump would be up in arms, and I think justifiably so, but how many people outside that group will speak out against a pardon.

Great points. And my guess is that's why Mueller will keep this trial all about tax evasion/fraud. Nothing about collusion.

This trial is about tax evasion and fraud and nothing else.  Their is no evidence that it is connected to Trump.

Re: Paul Manafort bank and tax fraud trial
« Reply #28 on: August 03, 2018, 11:26:27 AM »

Online BringToughnessBack

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I think this will all be for nothing. I see an immediate pardon coming for him.
it wouldn't surprise me but 3 questions come to mind:
1. these charges aren't related to collusion/conspiracy but tax evasion.  what excuse would Trump have to pardon him without it looking like he's out to help his buddy?
2. would there be any kind of negative response from the Republicans in Congress?  would seem to be an implicit approval of Trump's actions during the campaign and quite probably give him the green light to pardon everyone connected to him without repercussions.
3. what would be the public reaction?  Sure, Dems in office and those against Trump would be up in arms, and I think justifiably so, but how many people outside that group will speak out against a pardon.

Great points. And my guess is that's why Mueller will keep this trial all about tax evasion/fraud. Nothing about collusion.

It's clear at this point that Trump's base will support him no matter what, including a pardon for Manafort regardless of the charges. And therefore Republicans in Congress won't do anything beyond clicking their tongues and shaking their heads; some would even praise the pardon.

Democrats, of course, would call for impeachment if Trump ate a salad with the dinner fork. Pardoning Manafort will make them completely unhinged, even though they have to expect it by now.

Assuming Independents actually exist anymore, I'd hope this would be the nail in the coffin of their Trump support.

Actually, as an independent, both parties have officially lost me. Some of the Democrats have definitely lost me with the way they handled losing the election and some of the comments that have come out from their side. An olive branch from them has definitely not been offered and it clear that the best interest of the nation is not at the top of their to do list. It is amazing the level of scrutiny Trump has received. The "thing" with Stormy Daniels was classic- Even Bill Clinton had it easier back in the days of Monica and that was while he was in office!  But then again, social media was not around in full force like it is today and some of the news channels were not as biased back in that decade. When someone loses something and cannot own up to it, that is a show of character. For me, the Democrat Party character has been damaged and socialistic candidates will not endear me to them more. The idea that guilty til proven innocent has become the norm, that makes me sickened on so many levels and is truly embarrassing as an American.

Some Republicans also leave a lot to be desired. I am a big proponent on rights for women and other groups who should be allowed the same privileges as "straight" people. I do support tax breaks though and for a business person, my best times have always been under Republican rule. Some of the Republicans definitely scare me though, and would not want to see them in charge of our country. The idea of Pence or Sessions running our country makes me want to get under a heavy dose of anti-depressants! The ironic thing is that if the Democrats had their way, Trump would get impeached and Pence would take over the reigns...You think Donald scares you!

I have voted both parties since 1992 though and did support Clinton in his 2 terms. I also split in 2000 and 2004(one vote one way and one vote the other). I leaned toward Democrat following that but could not support either candidate this last election. I am disenchanted...ready for a change..but not the Socialism type of change! I hope an independent candidate comes out and runs on a moral high ground and shakes everything up but I think we are still not ready although getting closer to that. My biggest fear is that a Socialist candidate gets into the oval house. That kind of government would be the only thing that would seriously give me thought about country of residence.

2020 is coming soon...if in 2 years the Democrats are still trying to blame other's for their loss, they will have a hard time in getting me back on that side of aisle. I will also have 4 years of Trump to analyze then...how is the economy doing in 2020? Is our country more safe or less safe then before? Have they enacted any regulations that I am utterly opposed to? and then my hope of someone in the middle appearing on the scene and challenging both sides which as we know in this day and age of controlled media, close to impossible to get elected but trust me, many Americans are disenchanted and Millennials are at the top of the list.....here is hoping the Millennials do not lean Socialist.

Re: Paul Manafort bank and tax fraud trial
« Reply #29 on: August 03, 2018, 11:42:50 AM »

Offline Cman

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I think this will all be for nothing. I see an immediate pardon coming for him.
it wouldn't surprise me but 3 questions come to mind:
1. these charges aren't related to collusion/conspiracy but tax evasion.  what excuse would Trump have to pardon him without it looking like he's out to help his buddy?
2. would there be any kind of negative response from the Republicans in Congress?  would seem to be an implicit approval of Trump's actions during the campaign and quite probably give him the green light to pardon everyone connected to him without repercussions.
3. what would be the public reaction?  Sure, Dems in office and those against Trump would be up in arms, and I think justifiably so, but how many people outside that group will speak out against a pardon.

Great points. And my guess is that's why Mueller will keep this trial all about tax evasion/fraud. Nothing about collusion.

It's clear at this point that Trump's base will support him no matter what, including a pardon for Manafort regardless of the charges. And therefore Republicans in Congress won't do anything beyond clicking their tongues and shaking their heads; some would even praise the pardon.

Democrats, of course, would call for impeachment if Trump ate a salad with the dinner fork. Pardoning Manafort will make them completely unhinged, even though they have to expect it by now.

Assuming Independents actually exist anymore, I'd hope this would be the nail in the coffin of their Trump support.

Actually, as an independent, both parties have officially lost me. Some of the Democrats have definitely lost me with the way they handled losing the election and some of the comments that have come out from their side. An olive branch from them has definitely not been offered and it clear that the best interest of the nation is not at the top of their to do list. It is amazing the level of scrutiny Trump has received. The "thing" with Stormy Daniels was classic- Even Bill Clinton had it easier back in the days of Monica and that was while he was in office!  But then again, social media was not around in full force like it is today and some of the news channels were not as biased back in that decade. When someone loses something and cannot own up to it, that is a show of character. For me, the Democrat Party character has been damaged and socialistic candidates will not endear me to them more. The idea that guilty til proven innocent has become the norm, that makes me sickened on so many levels and is truly embarrassing as an American.

Some Republicans also leave a lot to be desired. I am a big proponent on rights for women and other groups who should be allowed the same privileges as "straight" people. I do support tax breaks though and for a business person, my best times have always been under Republican rule. Some of the Republicans definitely scare me though, and would not want to see them in charge of our country. The idea of Pence or Sessions running our country makes me want to get under a heavy dose of anti-depressants! The ironic thing is that if the Democrats had their way, Trump would get impeached and Pence would take over the reigns...You think Donald scares you!

I have voted both parties since 1992 though and did support Clinton in his 2 terms. I also split in 2000 and 2004(one vote one way and one vote the other). I leaned toward Democrat following that but could not support either candidate this last election. I am disenchanted...ready for a change..but not the Socialism type of change! I hope an independent candidate comes out and runs on a moral high ground and shakes everything up but I think we are still not ready although getting closer to that. My biggest fear is that a Socialist candidate gets into the oval house. That kind of government would be the only thing that would seriously give me thought about country of residence.

2020 is coming soon...if in 2 years the Democrats are still trying to blame other's for their loss, they will have a hard time in getting me back on that side of aisle. I will also have 4 years of Trump to analyze then...how is the economy doing in 2020? Is our country more safe or less safe then before? Have they enacted any regulations that I am utterly opposed to? and then my hope of someone in the middle appearing on the scene and challenging both sides which as we know in this day and age of controlled media, close to impossible to get elected but trust me, many Americans are disenchanted and Millennials are at the top of the list.....here is hoping the Millennials do not lean Socialist.

TP, thoughtful post.

It would be interesting if someone like Bloomberg ran for president. He ticks a lot of the boxes for me:
-Socially progressive, fiscally conservative.
-Successful in political office (former mayor of NYC).
-Incredibly successful businessman (he's a self-made billionaire).

Celtics fan for life.

 

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