Could you see Horford spending the rest of his career in Boston?

[PhoSita]

I'm skeptical as well. I've just tried to find comparably aged and impact players.

A lot of it depends on how the next two seasons go. If he is injured a lot, he might end up being a Nene-type minimum/biannual exemption type of player.

What I think might happen is a significant drop in his numbers (except assists and Off/Def rating). This is due to 2 factors: 1) He will likely be our 5th option on offense. Even though the offense might run through him, he will likely not be looking to score as much. 2) The Celtics are so deep and so good this year that his MPG drop to 30 (or 28).

If that trajectory continued in the 2019-2020 season, it becomes a lot more reasonable for him to sign descending 60 million dollar contract over 4 years, which would be similar to Pau Gasol's and Andre Igoudala's contracts.

If David West could shoot well over 40% from three on multiple attempts a game, he'd be getting a lot more $$ and minutes these days.


I think the only comparable impact players you can look at are the Gasols.  Hard to find any other PF/C types who developed reliable outside shooting after spending the bulk of their prime as All-Star big men.

One guy that comes to mind is Luis Scola, who was never the defender that Horford is.  He was in the NBA and productive through age 35, and is now playing overseas for more $$ than he could get in the NBA.

As long as Al doesn't fall off a cliff defensively I could see him being a valuable 20-25 mpg guy in the NBA for a while, thanks to his shooting and passing.

[Fafnir]

He'll be 34 at the end of his contract in two seasons.  If he wants to stay, I suspect a HUGE cut in pay otherwise, no, he's a goner.  That said, yeah, I think he takes that cut and stays.

He has a player option after this year.

He's very likely to opt out and secure another contract after his age 32 in a cap space rich environment.

[ETNCeltics]

Yeah I could, just because the age curve of Tatum/Brown/Kyrie/Hayward is such that the C's could be very good well into the years when Horford would retire.

I think its unlikely though even if the C's resign him beyond this year, he will probably be traded or decide to move on and play a few David West style years as a bench big somewhere else. Just the nature of the league.

Horford's potential FA is clearly a huge deal. If the C's were to lose Horford and Kyrie it'd set the team back massively.

Horford really doesn't fit the timeline of the younger group. He's more than a decade older than Brown and Tatum.

Yeah I disagree with this. Tatum and Brown will need a big to run with them one day (Williams?), but having a vet like Horford has done wonders for their development. Not only does he stretch the floor for their drives, but he sets them up with easy buckets and open shots. He also does the little things like screening really well to give them the advantage going down hill.

He fits the timeline of the younger group perfectly in that he knows the game and makes them better players. One day, they'll need a replacement, but he can keep doing those little things until Tatum and Brown are at the height of their game in their mid-20s.

OK, I agree, but financially he doesn't really fit the timeline. In the next two summers we have to figure out what to do with Rozier, Kyrie, and Brown, and presumably we will try to lock up Tatum as soon as we possibly can. Where is Al's $ going to come from? Very soon, unless he is willing to take a very large paycut he will become a luxury the C's simply can't afford..

Again, I disagree. Because Al is coming to the end of his career, he will likely command less money.

For example, the Warriors pay Durant, Curry, Thompson, and Green a lot of money as their core, but they still had enough to pay Iggy (even though he doesn't have the stats) because of his importance to the team.

I still don't know how it all is going to work, but I'd guess Horford gets a contract like Iggy's (or maybe slightly less) for his next contract in Boston. That would give the flexibility to max out Brown and Tatum when they get there, as well as Irving and Hayward.

Unfortunately, I think that means Rozier is left outside (unless Irving doesn't resign), but honestly, he probably would prefer being a starter somewhere (Orlando?) and his role is probably the most easy type of player in the NBA to find.

Sadly, I don't think Al is so old that he has to take on a bargain contract but he's not young enough to throw another max deal at if you're the C's, especially if the rest of the core is below 30. Hayward could also become another luxury tax casualty in a few years if the C's decide to build around the youngsters.

Very interesting times with very tough decisions to make, but it's going to be a lot of fun the next couple years..

No way of knowing what will happen, but Al will be the same age  Iggy was when he signed his deal last year.

[ETNCeltics]

Al will get a lot of $$$ from either us or the market. Maybe we can keep him for 4yr/$100M or so, who knows?

Probably depends on how much he likes playing with Kyrie and the young guys, and what he thinks of Brad. Plus, if we're really good next year, it will be hard for him to take a step down to Brooklyn or some such.

JMO, I think Ainge will pay to keep Al. Hayward may be expendable when his deal comes up, but I think Al and Kyrie will be a priority for Ainge.

[SparzWizard]

Hopefully he doesn't go to the Lakers or Warriors that would be sickening.

[pearljammer10]

I don't see Al going anywhere.

[Moranis]

The only way that it is conceivably possible is if he takes a major pay cut.  There is no way financially that the C's can pay Horford big money, when Irving and Hayward are on 30% maxes and Brown and Tatum are on 25% maxes, especially when you factor in Smart or Rozier, the future draft picks, and the other role players needed to fill out a championship level roster. 

[ederson]

Al will get a lot of $$$ from either us or the market. Maybe we can keep him for 4yr/$100M or so, who knows?

Probably depends on how much he likes playing with Kyrie and the young guys, and what he thinks of Brad. Plus, if we're really good next year, it will be hard for him to take a step down to Brooklyn or some such.

JMO, I think Ainge will pay to keep Al. Hayward may be expendable when his deal comes up, but I think Al and Kyrie will be a priority for Ainge.

25m for a 33yo center ? i don"t think it is a wise decision

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

yes

[billysan]

I don't see Al going anywhere.

Nor do I if we win a title with this crew in the next year or two. Why would he break up the band when he can stay and have a chance at a dynasty. Barring a trade by Danny of course.