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Would the cap experts please explain the Celts offseason options?
« on: May 28, 2018, 04:32:01 PM »

Offline Eja117

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I have only a mild idea of what they can and can't do and I'm usually reasonably on top of this.

What exactly is the likely long term thing here? It seems to me the most likely way to win a ring in the long term is to get max contracts for 4 guys.

How exactly is this all gonna work out and what would be the likely interim steps?

One thing I've noticed Ainge is pretty good at is extending windows by doing things like trading a decent player (Avery B) on the last year of a contract for a decent player (M Morris) on two years of contract.

Baynes certainly outplayed his MLE last year and Shane outplayed his minimum.

What does Ainge have to work with exactly?
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Re: Would the cap experts please explain the Celts offseason options?
« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2018, 04:48:58 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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Quote from: eja117 on May 28, 2018, 04:32:01 PM
I have only a mild idea of what they can and can't do and I'm usually reasonably on top of this.

What exactly is the likely long term thing here? It seems to me the most likely way to win a ring in the long term is to get max contracts for 4 guys.

How exactly is this all gonna work out and what would be the likely interim steps?

One thing I've noticed Ainge is pretty good at is extending windows by doing things like trading a decent player (Avery B) on the last year of a contract for a decent player (M Morris) on two years of contract.

Baynes certainly outplayed his MLE last year and Shane outplayed his minimum.

What does Ainge have to work with exactly?

If you go to celticshub.com, Ryan Bernardoni has a pretty thorough breakdown.
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Re: Would the cap experts please explain the Celts offseason options?
« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2018, 04:53:45 PM »

Offline spikelovetheCelts

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Re: Would the cap experts please explain the Celts offseason options?
« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2018, 09:35:53 PM »

Offline jambr380

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Quote from: Sophomore on May 28, 2018, 04:48:58 PM
Quote from: eja117 on May 28, 2018, 04:32:01 PM
I have only a mild idea of what they can and can't do and I'm usually reasonably on top of this.

What exactly is the likely long term thing here? It seems to me the most likely way to win a ring in the long term is to get max contracts for 4 guys.

How exactly is this all gonna work out and what would be the likely interim steps?

One thing I've noticed Ainge is pretty good at is extending windows by doing things like trading a decent player (Avery B) on the last year of a contract for a decent player (M Morris) on two years of contract.

Baynes certainly outplayed his MLE last year and Shane outplayed his minimum.

What does Ainge have to work with exactly?

If you go to celticshub.com, Ryan Bernardoni has a pretty thorough breakdown.

With Saltlover seemingly taking a hiatus (we'd love you back, SL!), his latest - and last - piece on Celticshub is extremely informative. Some people probably know him better as dangercart. Seriously, if you have any interest in the Cs future salary structure, take a few minutes and read this article. He describes many possible scenarios, ramifications of the luxury tax, and provides  exact numbers beyond known player salaries.

http://www.celticshub.com/2018/05/28/boston-celtics-2018-offseason-preview/
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Re: Would the cap experts please explain the Celts offseason options?
« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2018, 10:20:02 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Quote from: jambr380 on May 28, 2018, 09:35:53 PM
Quote from: Sophomore on May 28, 2018, 04:48:58 PM
Quote from: eja117 on May 28, 2018, 04:32:01 PM
I have only a mild idea of what they can and can't do and I'm usually reasonably on top of this.

What exactly is the likely long term thing here? It seems to me the most likely way to win a ring in the long term is to get max contracts for 4 guys.

How exactly is this all gonna work out and what would be the likely interim steps?

One thing I've noticed Ainge is pretty good at is extending windows by doing things like trading a decent player (Avery B) on the last year of a contract for a decent player (M Morris) on two years of contract.

Baynes certainly outplayed his MLE last year and Shane outplayed his minimum.

What does Ainge have to work with exactly?

If you go to celticshub.com, Ryan Bernardoni has a pretty thorough breakdown.

With Saltlover seemingly taking a hiatus (we'd love you back, SL!), his latest - and last - piece on Celticshub is extremely informative. Some people probably know him better as dangercart. Seriously, if you have any interest in the Cs future salary structure, take a few minutes and read this article. He describes many possible scenarios, ramifications of the luxury tax, and provides  exact numbers beyond known player salaries.

http://www.celticshub.com/2018/05/28/boston-celtics-2018-offseason-preview/

thanks. Very nicely done by Saltlover

Imo the roster look for next season

STARTING
Baynes (resigned - 2 years 10 million)
Horford
Tatum
Brown
Irving

BENCH
Theis
Morris
Hayward (needs to be eased in)
? (draft pick)
Rozier

extras
Larkin  (resigned 2 years 5 million)
Bird
Yabusele
Ojeleye
? (big man)

cut
Nader

-I don't think Smart will be back.  Celts will offer a 3 year 30 million type deal and he gets  something a little better somewhere else. 
-If Smart is resigned,  I can picture Danny packaging Rozier + 27 or even the 2019 Kings pick for a player that drops and that he really wants (like a Winslow).  Just like Saltlover mentioned in his article.

Ideas : 
- Rozier and future low pick for one of Clippers pick and draft Divicenzo. 27th pick grab Spellman.  Divincenzo imo is a prospect that is going  to keep climbing after the combine.  A player Danny has already taken out for a meal (usually a sign of great interest)

-Rozier and 2019 Kings 1st for 6th or 7th pick then draft Michael Porter Jr.   Another prospect Ainge is rumored to be high on. Was once considered the #1 prospect but due to injuries has dropped.

« Last Edit: May 29, 2018, 10:40:24 AM by triboy16f »
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Re: Would the cap experts please explain the Celts offseason options?
« Reply #5 on: May 29, 2018, 04:14:13 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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The article is by Ryan Bernardoni a.k.a Dangercart, not Saltlover.

I think it is going to be imperative to stay under the tax next season. We are going to be a tax team for a while, and will at some point enter the repeater tax which will be punishing.

From the article I found the bit on Morris the most interesting. I realised that he would likely see a drop in minutes next year but I hadn't thought about moving him. If we are happy with Haywards comeback from injury and the progression of Tatum, Yab and Semi then I can see how it makes sense. It is a definite enabler for re-signing Smart and Baynes which I think is very important.

One move that will come back to bite us is bringing Yab over so soon. If we'd been able to delay him coming over one more year then we'd have that extra bit of wiggle room under the tax.

I'm not really in favour of trading Rozier but I could definitely see something at draft time where we package Rozier, Morris and #27 to move up in the draft. Perhaps the Clippers at #12 or Charlotte at #11. Perhaps with a little more we could go as high as Dallas at #6 who are looking to put talent around Dirk for a final time?
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Re: Would the cap experts please explain the Celts offseason options?
« Reply #6 on: May 29, 2018, 05:34:29 AM »

Offline colincb

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Think it's likely we stay out of the luxury tax for one last time and bring back the core.  However, I don't think Smart's going to get the offer he wants and if he does, we'll spend the money elsewhere.
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Re: Would the cap experts please explain the Celts offseason options?
« Reply #7 on: May 29, 2018, 06:46:20 AM »

Offline jambr380

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Quote from: TheSundanceKid on May 29, 2018, 04:14:13 AM
The article is by Ryan Bernardoni a.k.a Dangercart, not Saltlover.

I think it is going to be imperative to stay under the tax next season. We are going to be a tax team for a while, and will at some point enter the repeater tax which will be punishing.

From the article I found the bit on Morris the most interesting. I realised that he would likely see a drop in minutes next year but I hadn't thought about moving him. If we are happy with Haywards comeback from injury and the progression of Tatum, Yab and Semi then I can see how it makes sense. It is a definite enabler for re-signing Smart and Baynes which I think is very important.

One move that will come back to bite us is bringing Yab over so soon. If we'd been able to delay him coming over one more year then we'd have that extra bit of wiggle room under the tax.

I'm not really in favour of trading Rozier but I could definitely see something at draft time where we package Rozier, Morris and #27 to move up in the draft. Perhaps the Clippers at #12 or Charlotte at #11. Perhaps with a little more we could go as high as Dallas at #6 who are looking to put talent around Dirk for a final time?

Yeah, sorry, I was responding to the post above me about Ryan Bernardoni and then immediately mentioned SL without referring back to Ryan (dangercart) - poor wording on my part.

I agree on the tax. I often see people saying it's Wyc's money and he has agreed to go well into the tax to maintain a contender. While that is true, you don't remain a contender for several years (like we plan to) without smart cap management. And signing a number of mid-tier contracts would be the death of a team like ours. Danny finally managed to acquire his three deserving max level guys. With Brown and Tatum on the horizon, it would make no sense to blow the cap right now unless we had a *guarantee* at a championship next year.
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Re: Would the cap experts please explain the Celts offseason options?
« Reply #8 on: May 29, 2018, 10:22:09 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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Quote from: jambr380 on May 29, 2018, 06:46:20 AM
Quote from: TheSundanceKid on May 29, 2018, 04:14:13 AM
The article is by Ryan Bernardoni a.k.a Dangercart, not Saltlover.

I think it is going to be imperative to stay under the tax next season. We are going to be a tax team for a while, and will at some point enter the repeater tax which will be punishing.

From the article I found the bit on Morris the most interesting. I realised that he would likely see a drop in minutes next year but I hadn't thought about moving him. If we are happy with Haywards comeback from injury and the progression of Tatum, Yab and Semi then I can see how it makes sense. It is a definite enabler for re-signing Smart and Baynes which I think is very important.

One move that will come back to bite us is bringing Yab over so soon. If we'd been able to delay him coming over one more year then we'd have that extra bit of wiggle room under the tax.

I'm not really in favour of trading Rozier but I could definitely see something at draft time where we package Rozier, Morris and #27 to move up in the draft. Perhaps the Clippers at #12 or Charlotte at #11. Perhaps with a little more we could go as high as Dallas at #6 who are looking to put talent around Dirk for a final time?

Yeah, sorry, I was responding to the post above me about Ryan Bernardoni and then immediately mentioned SL without referring back to Ryan (dangercart) - poor wording on my part.

I agree on the tax. I often see people saying it's Wyc's money and he has agreed to go well into the tax to maintain a contender. While that is true, you don't remain a contender for several years (like we plan to) without smart cap management. And signing a number of mid-tier contracts would be the death of a team like ours. Danny finally managed to acquire his three deserving max level guys. With Brown and Tatum on the horizon, it would make no sense to blow the cap right now unless we had a *guarantee* at a championship next year.

Completely agree with the bolded. Basically, the longer we can put off the luxury tax (within reason of keeping the core together), the longer our window can be. It would be horrible if, because of poor cap management, in 3 years we have to break up the core of the team because the repeater tax becomes too punishing. With smart cap management we should easily get to 2022/3 before we have to look to get back under the tax line.
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Re: Would the cap experts please explain the Celts offseason options?
« Reply #9 on: May 29, 2018, 12:39:20 PM »

Offline tstorey_97

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Bernardoni at Celticshub seems close:
barring a block buster...

Baynes
Horford
Hauward
Brown
Irving

Tatum
Smart (yes they might)
Rozier (barring a trade)
Theis
Semi
Yabusele

This year's First rounder
Bird
Allen
Veteran minimum

Trading into the lottery would be so much fun, but, this introduces a financial management theme. Tatum + Brown+ a top 6 or 7 player this year = causing issues with future ends to rookie deals, but also, tightens cap situation for this year and next which needs managing.

I offer the following trip into Ainge's consciousness.

Go for it now....add one of the available/disgruntled stars now, they have the assets to do it and turn this team loose on the NBA

Irving
Brown
Hayward
Leonard
Horford

or

Irving
Brown
Hayward
KAT
Horford

Ultimately, with these lineups, you can't afford a bench beyond...what we have now and a vet min, so, let's go get'em before we all get old.

Building for the future is fine, but, what the he&* you standing around for anyway?!
You trying to win a most draft picks contest or a title?

GSW are going to cough one of these years and you might as well be the team they choke on.
 

The clincher is, the NBA is designed to make those lineups end within 24 to 36 months...and they will, so, go for it.
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Re: Would the cap experts please explain the Celts offseason options?
« Reply #10 on: May 29, 2018, 12:47:13 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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No need to go all in, especially when the Warriors are still dominating the league.

Kyrie-Brown-Tatum-Hayward will be good for years to come.  Focus on holding onto those guys.  Don't sell out to add a short term piece and don't overpay long term to maintain / beef up the bench.

I wouldn't give a long term deal for major $$ to anybody apart from Kyrie - Brown - Hayward- Tatum - Horford.  That includes Rozier and Smart.  I would try to pay Smart more money for less years.

My main concern is what happens in a couple years when Horford's deal is up.  Can the Celts re-sign him for significantly less money?  How effective is he at that point?

A couple years from now, Horford won't be one of the three best players on the team anymore, but the skillset he brings to the table is still crucial to how this team plays and is difficult to replace.
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Re: Would the cap experts please explain the Celts offseason options?
« Reply #11 on: May 29, 2018, 03:59:58 PM »

Offline johnnygreen

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I’m listening to Felger and Mazz. There is a clip of Danny Ainge talking about ownership being willing to pay if a championship caliber team was attainable. I forget what the exact quote was, and couldn’t find it online, but it seemed odd. My first inclination was, is Danny willing to engage in trade talks to get another max type player. The first guy to pop to mind was Kawhi Leonard.
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