Has Anthony Davis always been THIS good?

[smokeablount]

yes

Ok.  Then in a season where James Harden is historically great, why is Davis getting MVP consideration for the first time?  His reputation is now catching up to his game?  Competitors like Westbrook and Lebron got 'worse'?

Davis already has a top 5 finish in MVP voting (he was also 9th last year).  And you could argue last year he had better overall stats then he does this year. 

Of course, the simple answer is team wins matter in that award and this is the best supporting cast (even without Cousins) that Davis has ever had.  When your team wins more games, you get more recognition for awards and accolades.

Yeah, 9th doesn't really count to me as 'in the running', but the team element makes sense. 

I'm still up in the air, but I'm skeptical that he didn't improve from age 23 to 25.

I'm sure he is a bit better, but statistically he has been fairly consistent on a per possession basis for the last 4 season.

Here are his Per 100 possession numbers for his career.  notice the last 4 seasons are very similar.

Season/Age/Tm/Lg/Pos/G/GS/MP/FG/FGA/FG%/3P/3PA/3P%/2P/2PA/2P%/FT/FTA/FT%/ORB/DRB/TRB/AST/STL/BLK/TOV/PF/PTS/ORtg/DRtg

2012-13
19 NOH NBA PF 64 60 1846 10.3 19.9 .516 0.0 0.2 .000 10.3 19.7 .521 5.0 6.6 .751 4.8 10.5 15.3 1.9 2.2 3.3 2.6 4.6 25.5  113 104

2013-14 ★
20 NOP NBA PF 67 66 2358 11.5 22.2 .519 0.0 0.2 .222 11.5 22.0 .522 7.7 9.7 .791 4.6 10.3 14.9 2.3 2.0 4.2 2.4 4.4 30.8  119 104

2014-15 ★
21 NOP NBA PF 68 68 2455 13.7 25.7 .535 0.0 0.3 .083 13.7 25.4 .540 7.9 9.9 .805 3.7 11.2 14.9 3.2 2.1 4.3 2.0 3.0 35.4  122 100

2015-16 ★
22 NOP NBA C 61 61 2164 12.8 26.0 .493 0.8 2.5 .324 12.0 23.6 .511 7.5 9.9 .758 3.0 11.4 14.4 2.7 1.8 2.9 2.8 3.4 33.9  110 104

2016-17 ★
23 NOP NBA C 75 75 2708 13.9 27.6 .505 0.7 2.4 .299 13.2 25.2 .524 9.4 11.7 .802 3.1 12.9 16.0 2.8 1.7 3.0 3.3 3.0 38.0  112 102

2017-18 ★
24 NOP NBA PF 64 64 2334 13.7 25.6 .537 1.0 3.0 .340 12.7 22.5 .563 8.5 10.2 .830 3.3 11.3 14.6 3.1 1.9 3.1 2.9 2.8 37.0  119 103

TP, thanks for putting in the effort man.  I expected the stats to plateau but I'm a guy that thinks we as fans can be really over-reliant on stats, and we often undersell the eye test.  Case in point, this off-season, when some very smart basketball fans here weren't putting it together than if you compare Kyrie games/highlights vs IT's instead of their stats, it was very clear cut.

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=93606.msg2389025#msg2389025

I guess I just never got a real eye test before, but if he was this good at age 23 then good lord, that would seem to put him on pace for the all-time Tier 2 historic big man group (Duncan, KG, Dirk, Hakeem, Shaq & prime Walton, and below only the Tier 1 big 3- Russ, Wilt & Kareem).

[smokeablount]

There is no doubt that Davis is a great player and has shown improvement this season. However, I still think he lacks the killer instinct that separates the elite players from everyone else. For me, he is in the same category as the Greek Freak. They both put up great stats, but those stats seem hollow in relation to team success. The Pelicans are having a good season and could make the playoffs for just the second time in Davis’ young career. Then again, they’re only 3 games out of missing the playoffs too. If Davis is ever going to win a title, then I think he will probably end up being the second best player on his team. He needs that elite player next to him. In Boston, Kyrie could be that guy.

I'm inclined to agree with this but I think half the time we say this about elite young players, youth plays a big part in that.  People said that about Lebron before, Durant before, Dirk before, KG before, etc.  I feel like it takes winning that first title for people to look back at a guy's career before that, and with the 'soft' etc label removed, he finally gets the appreciation he always deserved. 

I mean you're right that sometimes the instinct / drive is just missing, but I think bad teammates or management, or just youth in a time of superteams, can be the 'secret' reasons why it often takes years for 'soft' top players to finally emerge as stone cold killers.

[Moranis]

There is no doubt that Davis is a great player and has shown improvement this season. However, I still think he lacks the killer instinct that separates the elite players from everyone else. For me, he is in the same category as the Greek Freak. They both put up great stats, but those stats seem hollow in relation to team success. The Pelicans are having a good season and could make the playoffs for just the second time in Davis’ young career. Then again, they’re only 3 games out of missing the playoffs too. If Davis is ever going to win a title, then I think he will probably end up being the second best player on his team. He needs that elite player next to him. In Boston, Kyrie could be that guy.

I'm inclined to agree with this but I think half the time we say this about elite young players, youth plays a big part in that.  People said that about Lebron before, Durant before, Dirk before, KG before, etc.  I feel like it takes winning that first title for people to look back at a guy's career before that, and with the 'soft' etc label removed, he finally gets the appreciation he always deserved. 

I mean you're right that sometimes the instinct / drive is just missing, but I think bad teammates or management, or just youth in a time of superteams, can be the 'secret' reasons why it often takes years for 'soft' top players to finally emerge as stone cold killers.

Davis has generally been on awful teams.  He really hasn't had any sort of real talent around him and he isn't a guy that can play with the ball in his hand (so he has less impact then a wing or guard in many respects).  Davis, however, is a better player than Irving.  And frankly, I don't think it is all that close.  If Boston was lucky enough to acquire Davis to pair with Irving and Hayward, Davis would be by far the best player of that group.  He has no real flaws in his game.  If he wasn't saddled with a train wreck of a franchise, he would clearly get his due, and it is nice that New Orleans seems to finally be doing some things well (that Mirotic trade was great for them).  I mean he is basically Garnett in Minnesota, and I've always wondered, what if KG got out of that crap hole sooner, would he, and not Duncan be known as the greatest PF ever. 

[pearljammer10]

He's always been this good and people have always noticed he's been this good.

The only thing holding him back in his first four years were injuries preventing him from a complete season and missing double digit amount of games each year. I think he was labeled as a bit soft and this took away from serious MVP campaigns. Couple that with the fact that he was on terrible teams.

But he's averaged 20+ and 10+ with 2+ blocks 1+ steals and low turnovers for 5 of his 6 years.

[smokeablount]

He's always been this good and people have always noticed he's been this good.

The only thing holding him back in his first four years were injuries preventing him from a complete season and missing double digit amount of games each year. I think he was labeled as a bit soft and this took away from serious MVP campaigns. Couple that with the fact that he was on terrible teams.

But he's averaged 20+ and 10+ with 2+ blocks 1+ steals and low turnovers for 5 of his 6 years.

Again, I'm less concerned about stats and more about skills development.  I get that stats reflect that, but see my Kyrie/IT thread from this summer on my views:

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=93606.msg2389025#msg2389025

Like, KG's stats got a lot worse when he came here.  Did he get a lot worse overnight?  We know he didn't.  I'm looking to point to skills- help defense, jump shooting form, or even more advanced stats like FG % from 15-18 feet- more than Lies, [dang] Lies and Statistics.  I may be biased working in Big Data and frequently telling stories with numbers... I don't know. 

[smokeablount]

There is no doubt that Davis is a great player and has shown improvement this season. However, I still think he lacks the killer instinct that separates the elite players from everyone else. For me, he is in the same category as the Greek Freak. They both put up great stats, but those stats seem hollow in relation to team success. The Pelicans are having a good season and could make the playoffs for just the second time in Davis’ young career. Then again, they’re only 3 games out of missing the playoffs too. If Davis is ever going to win a title, then I think he will probably end up being the second best player on his team. He needs that elite player next to him. In Boston, Kyrie could be that guy.

I'm inclined to agree with this but I think half the time we say this about elite young players, youth plays a big part in that.  People said that about Lebron before, Durant before, Dirk before, KG before, etc.  I feel like it takes winning that first title for people to look back at a guy's career before that, and with the 'soft' etc label removed, he finally gets the appreciation he always deserved. 

I mean you're right that sometimes the instinct / drive is just missing, but I think bad teammates or management, or just youth in a time of superteams, can be the 'secret' reasons why it often takes years for 'soft' top players to finally emerge as stone cold killers.

Davis has generally been on awful teams.  He really hasn't had any sort of real talent around him and he isn't a guy that can play with the ball in his hand (so he has less impact then a wing or guard in many respects).  Davis, however, is a better player than Irving.  And frankly, I don't think it is all that close.  If Boston was lucky enough to acquire Davis to pair with Irving and Hayward, Davis would be by far the best player of that group.  He has no real flaws in his game.  If he wasn't saddled with a train wreck of a franchise, he would clearly get his due, and it is nice that New Orleans seems to finally be doing some things well (that Mirotic trade was great for them).  I mean he is basically Garnett in Minnesota, and I've always wondered, what if KG got out of that crap hole sooner, would he, and not Duncan be known as the greatest PF ever.

Hah, exactly what I said on Page 1.

[tarheelsxxiii]

Ridiculous talent.  I think he gets less recognition than other top players because he hasn't had postseason opportunities where the stars really shine. 

He recently joined Bob McAdoo as the only player to record 50 points, 15 rebounds, and 5 blocks since blocks were tracked in 1973-1974.  He also had 10 blocks a few games later. 

I hope he gets that opportunity on a better team.  Like the Celtics. Please and thank you.

[Celtics4ever]

He is a budding superstar.  I think he is better than the Greek Freak.

[GreenShooter]

He's been my favorite player since he came into the league. I loved those Kentucky teams. Loaded! So I got to see a lot of Davis. I knew he needed to put on some weight before he could really dominate the league. Not everyone is physically gifted, at an early age, like Lebron. I'm glad he's finally getting some recognition as a top player. There is not a player in the league that I would take over this kid right now.

Edit: I wish people would stop with the "injury prone" thing. He's a BIG who is not that BIG (weight-wise) so some of those injuries were not serious but not exactly preventable. It's not like any of his past injuries are going to translate to the future. He still could use a few lbs. as he'll get a little more pounding but I am not worried as his knees and feet are in good shape....or can't you tell? I'm not going to get into any debates about his past injuries so don't bother looking for any replies from me (ok, I may just once as I didn't get too detailed here) if I get quoted.

[nickagneta]

Ridiculous talent.  I think he gets less recognition than other top players because he hasn't had postseason opportunities where the stars really shine. 

He recently joined Bob McAdoo as the only player to record 50 points, 15 rebounds, and 5 blocks since blocks were tracked in 1973-1974.  He also had 10 blocks a few games later. 

I hope he gets that opportunity on a better team.  Like the Celtics. Please and thank you.

TP. Awesome stat regarding McAdoo. Some might not remember but McAdoo, a former MVP, at his peak, was just so dominant.

[2short]

Part I response.  Davis has always been this good, granted he has improved since coming into the nba every year.  What always worries me (even if he isn't a celtic) is some of his injuries and his airborne play (and the NOLA nights!)
He is a complete package and only needs a few key pieces around him to be a contender for title.  He really has no weakness.

Part II response with nod to Tar Heel Bob McAdoo not as a laker sub (who was still a [dang] good player) but Buffalo Braves Mac with Ernie D!!  Amazing talent and much like mentioned KG on minny, no press because teams weren't that good

[GreenEnvy]

He’s worth overpaying for.

I’d dangle Tatum, Rozier, salary and a pick or two for him. I think Tatum is a future star. Rozier can be a starting PG imo. You have to give to get though.

But you have two all-stars in their primes and another exiting his. The time is now.

Irving
Brown
Hayward
Horford
Davis

I’m sure the bench can be pieced together with whoever is left (Smart, Morris, Monroe, Baynes, Theis, etc.) after matching salary with buyouts and vets chasing rings.

Should be an interesting offseason. Would NOP be better off resigning DMC and getting Tatum & Rozier and maybe the Kings pick for him? What do you think New Orleans would realistically want for him if anything? What team could offer more and still be a contender he would want to play for?

[moiso]

He’s worth overpaying for.

I’d dangle Tatum, Rozier, salary and a pick or two for him. I think Tatum is a future star. Rozier can be a starting PG imo. You have to give to get though.

But you have two all-stars in their primes and another exiting his. The time is now.

Irving
Brown
Hayward
Horford
Davis

I’m sure the bench can be pieced together with whoever is left (Smart, Morris, Monroe, Baynes, Theis, etc.) after matching salary with buyouts and vets chasing rings.

Should be an interesting offseason. Would NOP be better off resigning DMC and getting Tatum & Rozier and maybe the Kings pick for him? What do you think New Orleans would realistically want for him if anything? What team could offer more and still be a contender he would want to play for?

Your offer is a huge underpay, though.  It would take a whole lot more than that.

[gouki88]

He’s worth overpaying for.

I’d dangle Tatum, Rozier, salary and a pick or two for him. I think Tatum is a future star. Rozier can be a starting PG imo. You have to give to get though.

But you have two all-stars in their primes and another exiting his. The time is now.

Irving
Brown
Hayward
Horford
Davis

I’m sure the bench can be pieced together with whoever is left (Smart, Morris, Monroe, Baynes, Theis, etc.) after matching salary with buyouts and vets chasing rings.

Should be an interesting offseason. Would NOP be better off resigning DMC and getting Tatum & Rozier and maybe the Kings pick for him? What do you think New Orleans would realistically want for him if anything? What team could offer more and still be a contender he would want to play for?

Your offer is a huge underpay, though.  It would take a whole lot more than that.

If he demanded a trade it sort of makes sense as an offer. But I don't think that's happening considering NOP look decent this year

[smokeablount]

He’s worth overpaying for.

I’d dangle Tatum, Rozier, salary and a pick or two for him. I think Tatum is a future star. Rozier can be a starting PG imo. You have to give to get though.

But you have two all-stars in their primes and another exiting his. The time is now.

Irving
Brown
Hayward
Horford
Davis

I’m sure the bench can be pieced together with whoever is left (Smart, Morris, Monroe, Baynes, Theis, etc.) after matching salary with buyouts and vets chasing rings.

Should be an interesting offseason. Would NOP be better off resigning DMC and getting Tatum & Rozier and maybe the Kings pick for him? What do you think New Orleans would realistically want for him if anything? What team could offer more and still be a contender he would want to play for?

Your offer is a huge underpay, though.  It would take a whole lot more than that.

Yeah, I’m afraid his price probably went from ‘sky high’ to ‘not for all the money in the world’ since DMC went down.