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Author Topic: Trump’s Economy (merged)  (Read 66662 times)

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Re: Trump’s Economy (merged)
« Reply #795 on: March 30, 2020, 01:41:10 PM »

Offline bdm860

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While I'll still preach buy-and-hold, this has been a great time to re-balance and do some tax loss harvesting in my non-tax advantaged accounts.  Was able to lock in some decent tax savings.

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Re: Trump’s Economy (merged)
« Reply #796 on: March 30, 2020, 01:56:55 PM »

Offline jambr380

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So it seems most people aren't too distraught quite yet. That is good. From what I've been reading, there probably is another dip coming after actual earnings reports come in and the [possible] requirement of even more quarantine time/business closures (I don't even want to go into increased # of deaths).

Even though there is certainly risk, I do wonder if some people will take their money out now and then try to re-invest at 15000-17000. That sure would be courageous, but there is a way to possibly work this to your advantage if you suddenly just lost 25% of your portfolio (Note that I am not recommending this - don't blame me later on  :P)

Re: Trump’s Economy (merged)
« Reply #797 on: March 30, 2020, 02:02:05 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Once the weekly numbers for new unemployment claims, the month unemployment number, the monthly GDP, monthly earnings, etc come out, there will be another downturn in the market.

The next quarter numbers could also be quite bad as the disease spreads to other areas. I doubt we have seen the bottom of the market yet.

Re: Trump’s Economy (merged)
« Reply #798 on: March 30, 2020, 02:17:42 PM »

Offline bdm860

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Once the weekly numbers for new unemployment claims, the month unemployment number, the monthly GDP, monthly earnings, etc come out, there will be another downturn in the market.

The next quarter numbers could also be quite bad as the disease spreads to other areas. I doubt we have seen the bottom of the market yet.

Theoretically, that stuff is already priced into the market.  The expectations of drop in earnings, GDP, rise in unemployment, etc. is what caused the market to tank like it did.  Last Thursday for example, when they released the record breaking unemployment claim numbers, you'd think the market would take a big dip, but the market actually went up, because that kind of news was already expected and as such was already priced into the market.

After 18 months with their Bigs, the Littles were: 46% less likely to use illegal drugs, 27% less likely to use alcohol, 52% less likely to skip school, 37% less likely to skip a class

Re: Trump’s Economy (merged)
« Reply #799 on: March 30, 2020, 03:07:58 PM »

Offline jambr380

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Once the weekly numbers for new unemployment claims, the month unemployment number, the monthly GDP, monthly earnings, etc come out, there will be another downturn in the market.

The next quarter numbers could also be quite bad as the disease spreads to other areas. I doubt we have seen the bottom of the market yet.

Theoretically, that stuff is already priced into the market.  The expectations of drop in earnings, GDP, rise in unemployment, etc. is what caused the market to tank like it did.  Last Thursday for example, when they released the record breaking unemployment claim numbers, you'd think the market would take a big dip, but the market actually went up, because that kind of news was already expected and as such was already priced into the market.

Last week also saw the passing of the $2T stimulus bill. I am hardly somebody that can predict the future, but I'd imagine that the more time that goes by without an actual economy and as negative #s continue to be released, the more the market will go down.

I am hoping that even though 2nd quarter #s are going to be disastrous that at least part of May and June will show that we are getting back on the right track and there isn't an overreaction there.

Just as we've never seen a stimulus bill like this one, we've also never seen the government turn off the economy. What happens next will be a new experience for everybody.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 06:04:48 PM by jambr380 »

Re: Trump’s Economy (merged)
« Reply #800 on: March 30, 2020, 03:15:14 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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slight aside on this.  for the first time ever, I've had to pay federal taxes instead of getting a refund and a substantial sum it was.  not that I changed anything about my withholdings but my company apparently changed people's information and it screwed up a lot of people's withholding and taxes for the year.  both my Mass and RI state taxes ended up in the in usual refund amounts.  while most would attribute this problem to my employer's fault, and they do bare the brunt of it, I attribute it to Trump/Ryan's blatant efforts to screw the little guy in the Blue states with their gutting of personal deductions for home owners and their messing with tax brackets.  another reason for me to kick on any republican in office to get back to a balanced tax scheme

Re: Trump’s Economy (merged)
« Reply #801 on: March 30, 2020, 03:43:12 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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So it seems most people aren't too distraught quite yet. That is good. From what I've been reading, there probably is another dip coming after actual earnings reports come in and the [possible] requirement of even more quarantine time/business closures (I don't even want to go into increased # of deaths).

Even though there is certainly risk, I do wonder if some people will take their money out now and then try to re-invest at 15000-17000. That sure would be courageous, but there is a way to possibly work this to your advantage if you suddenly just lost 25% of your portfolio (Note that I am not recommending this - don't blame me later on  :P)

I don't think people are going to be quick to take out their money when it has gone up 20-25% in the last few weeks. I have a friend that did take it out at 1800-1900 and he feels like a real idiot. It is also pretty hard as you say to have the guts to pull out money that has already lost a lot of value.

Re: Trump’s Economy (merged)
« Reply #802 on: March 30, 2020, 04:27:37 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Quote
I attribute it to Trump/Ryan's blatant efforts to screw the little guy in the Blue states with their gutting of personal deductions for home owners and their messing with tax brackets.  another reason for me to kick on any republican in office to get back to a balanced tax scheme

What do you mean by balance? Didn’t the tax cuts flat in the tax code? Deductions by their very nature seem to unbalance the code, picking winners and losers based upon life choices.

Also, if you’re deducting more than the standard deduction, are you really “the little guy”?  I would assume that most poor and working class people don’t benefit from those deductions, regardless of whether they live in a red state or a blue state.
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Re: Trump’s Economy (merged)
« Reply #803 on: March 30, 2020, 04:40:32 PM »

Offline W8ting2McHale

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You’re correct, mortgage deductions and the like don’t benefit the working poor.

Don’t conflate “the little guy” with the working poor in this instance.

If you’re not in the top 10% of earners, then you are “the little guy.”  If you’re not in the bottom 10% or the top 10%, you’re one of “the little guy’s” trying to pull themselves up by their bootstraps, and those deductions certainly benefit the middle 80%.

If you are lucky enough to be making 7 figures then there are plenty of deductions open to you, and other options as well, like off shore accounts to hide your money in.

Most of us aren’t that lucky and this sort of thinking is why we lost those benefits to the rich in the first place. Let’s keep lowering the water level though, maybe that boat will float one day.

Re: Trump’s Economy (merged)
« Reply #804 on: March 30, 2020, 04:57:36 PM »

Online Roy H.

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You’re correct, mortgage deductions and the like don’t benefit the working poor.

Don’t conflate “the little guy” with the working poor in this instance.

If you’re not in the top 10% of earners, then you are “the little guy.”  If you’re not in the bottom 10% or the top 10%, you’re one of “the little guy’s” trying to pull themselves up by their bootstraps, and those deductions certainly benefit the middle 80%.

If you are lucky enough to be making 7 figures then there are plenty of deductions open to you, and other options as well, like off shore accounts to hide your money in.

Most of us aren’t that lucky and this sort of thinking is why we lost those benefits to the rich in the first place. Let’s keep lowering the water level though, maybe that boat will float one day.

The vast majority of taxpayers didn’t itemize, though.  The number increased from 70% to 88%, and the majority of people got a tax cut.

The idea of “getting back to a balanced system” by undoing the tax code is silly, to me.  If anything, the Trump cuts made the tax code more balanced for almost all Americans.  The gripe isn’t “more balanced”.  It’s “I want my deductions that relatively few Americans can claim”.  That’s based upon self-interest, not fairness or balance.
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Re: Trump’s Economy (merged)
« Reply #805 on: March 30, 2020, 06:15:20 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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Quote
I attribute it to Trump/Ryan's blatant efforts to screw the little guy in the Blue states with their gutting of personal deductions for home owners and their messing with tax brackets.  another reason for me to kick on any republican in office to get back to a balanced tax scheme

What do you mean by balance? Didn’t the tax cuts flat in the tax code? Deductions by their very nature seem to unbalance the code, picking winners and losers based upon life choices.

Also, if you’re deducting more than the standard deduction, are you really “the little guy”?  I would assume that most poor and working class people don’t benefit from those deductions, regardless of whether they live in a red state or a blue state.
I wholeheartedly disagree on that.  those of us living in the northeast that worked hard to afford to buy a home where jobs are located should not be penalized by having deductions capped for local taxes, including property taxes.  that's a well-known hit against those living in the 'blue' states that Ryan and Trump were adamant about putting in the tax code.

it's not a relative few people that claim it Roy.  A lot of people in the northeast used those deductions.

Re: Trump’s Economy (merged)
« Reply #806 on: March 30, 2020, 06:19:18 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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You’re correct, mortgage deductions and the like don’t benefit the working poor.

Don’t conflate “the little guy” with the working poor in this instance.

If you’re not in the top 10% of earners, then you are “the little guy.”  If you’re not in the bottom 10% or the top 10%, you’re one of “the little guy’s” trying to pull themselves up by their bootstraps, and those deductions certainly benefit the middle 80%.

If you are lucky enough to be making 7 figures then there are plenty of deductions open to you, and other options as well, like off shore accounts to hide your money in.

Most of us aren’t that lucky and this sort of thinking is why we lost those benefits to the rich in the first place. Let’s keep lowering the water level though, maybe that boat will float one day.

The vast majority of taxpayers didn’t itemize, though.  The number increased from 70% to 88%, and the majority of people got a tax cut.

The idea of “getting back to a balanced system” by undoing the tax code is silly, to me.  If anything, the Trump cuts made the tax code more balanced for almost all Americans.  The gripe isn’t “more balanced”.  It’s “I want my deductions that relatively few Americans can claim”.  That’s based upon self-interest, not fairness or balance.
fairness my butt.  you want fairness, let's even out which states contribute more than they get in federal funds.  let's see Trump's tax returns and you'll see just how much that tax code change really benefitted the wealthy.

I'm not wealthy.  I pay a lot in local and property taxes.  without the capping of those local taxes for deductions, I'd still be able to itemize because the taxes are that high.

Re: Trump’s Economy (merged)
« Reply #807 on: March 30, 2020, 06:26:39 PM »

Online Roy H.

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You’re correct, mortgage deductions and the like don’t benefit the working poor.

Don’t conflate “the little guy” with the working poor in this instance.

If you’re not in the top 10% of earners, then you are “the little guy.”  If you’re not in the bottom 10% or the top 10%, you’re one of “the little guy’s” trying to pull themselves up by their bootstraps, and those deductions certainly benefit the middle 80%.

If you are lucky enough to be making 7 figures then there are plenty of deductions open to you, and other options as well, like off shore accounts to hide your money in.

Most of us aren’t that lucky and this sort of thinking is why we lost those benefits to the rich in the first place. Let’s keep lowering the water level though, maybe that boat will float one day.

The vast majority of taxpayers didn’t itemize, though.  The number increased from 70% to 88%, and the majority of people got a tax cut.

The idea of “getting back to a balanced system” by undoing the tax code is silly, to me.  If anything, the Trump cuts made the tax code more balanced for almost all Americans.  The gripe isn’t “more balanced”.  It’s “I want my deductions that relatively few Americans can claim”.  That’s based upon self-interest, not fairness or balance.
fairness my butt.  you want fairness, let's even out which states contribute more than they get in federal funds.  let's see Trump's tax returns and you'll see just how much that tax code change really benefitted the wealthy.

I'm not wealthy.  I pay a lot in local and property taxes.  without the capping of those local taxes for deductions, I'd still be able to itemize because the taxes are that high.

Then move to an area where you pay less in local taxes.  The pre-Trump system wasn’t “balanced” (your word).  Rather, it just gave you deductions that subsidized your lifestyle choices.
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Re: Trump’s Economy (merged)
« Reply #808 on: March 30, 2020, 06:44:45 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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You’re correct, mortgage deductions and the like don’t benefit the working poor.

Don’t conflate “the little guy” with the working poor in this instance.

If you’re not in the top 10% of earners, then you are “the little guy.”  If you’re not in the bottom 10% or the top 10%, you’re one of “the little guy’s” trying to pull themselves up by their bootstraps, and those deductions certainly benefit the middle 80%.

If you are lucky enough to be making 7 figures then there are plenty of deductions open to you, and other options as well, like off shore accounts to hide your money in.

Most of us aren’t that lucky and this sort of thinking is why we lost those benefits to the rich in the first place. Let’s keep lowering the water level though, maybe that boat will float one day.

The vast majority of taxpayers didn’t itemize, though.  The number increased from 70% to 88%, and the majority of people got a tax cut.

The idea of “getting back to a balanced system” by undoing the tax code is silly, to me.  If anything, the Trump cuts made the tax code more balanced for almost all Americans.  The gripe isn’t “more balanced”.  It’s “I want my deductions that relatively few Americans can claim”.  That’s based upon self-interest, not fairness or balance.
fairness my butt.  you want fairness, let's even out which states contribute more than they get in federal funds.  let's see Trump's tax returns and you'll see just how much that tax code change really benefitted the wealthy.

I'm not wealthy.  I pay a lot in local and property taxes.  without the capping of those local taxes for deductions, I'd still be able to itemize because the taxes are that high.

Then move to an area where you pay less in local taxes.  The pre-Trump system wasn’t “balanced” (your word).  Rather, it just gave you deductions that subsidized your lifestyle choices.

Agreed, and I'd take it a step further and say that all deductions from your federal taxes should be eliminated. I want equal taxes for equal pay. Two people on a W-2 should be paying the exact same federal income tax if they make the same salary. Now, if your state wants to charge more in taxes than my state above and beyond our shared federal tax burden, you can either move to a more tax friendly state, or vote for politicians that will lower your state tax burden.

Re: Trump’s Economy (merged)
« Reply #809 on: March 30, 2020, 08:00:49 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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I don't know whether or not Trump's current tax profile is more or less balanced than before.  I judge the tax cuts as a failure though because they increased debt.  Additional debt spending, and this is what these tax cuts were, at the point we were in the '"recovery" from the 2008/09 recession was really bad policy.

I have fewer deductions now so no longer itemize.  I have a mortgage, State taxes, college costs for a child, all of that.  But I don't try to judge the tax policy on the impact to one person or family.  It is bad policy and is going to have to be undone.

The purpose of it was to goose the GDP growth a little to improve approval ratings.  It wasn't good leadership.  It wasn't fiscally conservative.  It was simply a path of least resistance.  This debt is going to lead to inflation eventually, then a recession.  The longer we defer dealing with it, the worse it will be.