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Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #765 on: August 23, 2019, 01:28:31 PM »

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This tirade is cute.  Ordering private businesses around?  Dow's having another stellar day.

Quote

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

Our Country has lost, stupidly, Trillions of Dollars with China over many years. They have stolen our Intellectual Property at a rate of Hundreds of Billions of Dollars a year, & they want to continue. I wonít let that happen! We donít need China and, frankly, would be far....


....better off without them. The vast amounts of money made and stolen by China from the United States, year after year, for decades, will and must STOP. Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing..




....your companies HOME and making your products in the USA. I will be responding to Chinaís Tariffs this afternoon. This is a GREAT opportunity for the United States. Also, I am ordering all carriers, including Fed Ex, Amazon, UPS and the Post Office, to SEARCH FOR & REFUSE,....


....all deliveries of Fentanyl from China (or anywhere else!). Fentanyl kills 100,000 Americans a year. President Xi said this would stop - it didnít. Our Economy, because of our gains in the last 2 1/2 years, is MUCH larger than that of China. We will keep it that way!


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Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #766 on: August 23, 2019, 02:20:46 PM »

Online fairweatherfan

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That reminds me of a post/meme one of my family members posted a while back on FB:

The responses to this were (all by separate family members) - 1) I would, but I don't go to Starbucks. 2) I would, but I'm afraid that somebody would throw the coffee in my face. It is really hard being a Trump supporter these days. 3) It is so sad the country has come to this.

So, this particular situation went from telling Trump supporters to do something mean to non-Trump supporters by messing with them at one of their establishments. Then, assuming something would happen because you were doing so. And then being upset at those non-Trump supporters because they would be so awful. It's like, not only did we not actually do anything, but you guys are the ones hypothetically instigating the whole thing!

Lol that's a really good example of a similar kind of tendency. A big part of the appeal of authoritarians is dominance through submission, much of which plays out in the fevered imaginations of some deeply frightened and insecure people. The Internet and social media in particular have leveraged that to allow that kind of people to get all the self-pity and self-righteousness of feeling persecuted without the pesky day-to-day hassles of actual persecution. It really is crazy how immersing yourself in wholly imaginary or simulated conflicts can spiral into a perception that they DID happen, or might as well have.

The kicker is through this mindset the more objectively awful and divisive the authoritarian is, the more appeal siding with him has as the imaginary oppression points and "triggering" of perceived enemies ramps up, and his continuing to get away with it is seen as reinforcing the privileged status of the in-group (in this case mostly white male supremacy), where society is here to serve people like the authoritarian, not to restrict or punish them.

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #767 on: August 23, 2019, 02:23:30 PM »

Online fairweatherfan

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This tirade is cute.  Ordering private businesses around?  Dow's having another stellar day.

Quote

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

Our Country has lost, stupidly, Trillions of Dollars with China over many years. They have stolen our Intellectual Property at a rate of Hundreds of Billions of Dollars a year, & they want to continue. I wonít let that happen! We donít need China and, frankly, would be far....


....better off without them. The vast amounts of money made and stolen by China from the United States, year after year, for decades, will and must STOP. Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing..




....your companies HOME and making your products in the USA. I will be responding to Chinaís Tariffs this afternoon. This is a GREAT opportunity for the United States. Also, I am ordering all carriers, including Fed Ex, Amazon, UPS and the Post Office, to SEARCH FOR & REFUSE,....


....all deliveries of Fentanyl from China (or anywhere else!). Fentanyl kills 100,000 Americans a year. President Xi said this would stop - it didnít. Our Economy, because of our gains in the last 2 1/2 years, is MUCH larger than that of China. We will keep it that way!


Don't forget calling the Fed chair an enemy of America!

I know there's nothing we can do here but it's either impeachment or more of this and worse.

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #768 on: August 23, 2019, 02:23:40 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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This tirade is cute.  Ordering private businesses around?  Dow's having another stellar day.

Quote

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

Our Country has lost, stupidly, Trillions of Dollars with China over many years. They have stolen our Intellectual Property at a rate of Hundreds of Billions of Dollars a year, & they want to continue. I wonít let that happen! We donít need China and, frankly, would be far....


....better off without them. The vast amounts of money made and stolen by China from the United States, year after year, for decades, will and must STOP. Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing..




....your companies HOME and making your products in the USA. I will be responding to Chinaís Tariffs this afternoon. This is a GREAT opportunity for the United States. Also, I am ordering all carriers, including Fed Ex, Amazon, UPS and the Post Office, to SEARCH FOR & REFUSE,....


....all deliveries of Fentanyl from China (or anywhere else!). Fentanyl kills 100,000 Americans a year. President Xi said this would stop - it didnít. Our Economy, because of our gains in the last 2 1/2 years, is MUCH larger than that of China. We will keep it that way!
I am starting to think that the leftist conspiracy theory that Trump might be slipping mentally and falling into early dementia or Alzheimer's has some merit reading this, especially after looking skywards the other day and proclaiming himself the chosen one.

Trump is a businessman. He would never take orders from an American president on how to run his business. Trump would have never let Reagan or a Bush tell him where he could buy goods for his Trump businesses, nevermind a Clinton or an Obama.

The guy is losing it. I am convinced.

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #769 on: August 23, 2019, 02:40:21 PM »

Online fairweatherfan

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This tirade is cute.  Ordering private businesses around?  Dow's having another stellar day.

Quote

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

Our Country has lost, stupidly, Trillions of Dollars with China over many years. They have stolen our Intellectual Property at a rate of Hundreds of Billions of Dollars a year, & they want to continue. I wonít let that happen! We donít need China and, frankly, would be far....


....better off without them. The vast amounts of money made and stolen by China from the United States, year after year, for decades, will and must STOP. Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing..




....your companies HOME and making your products in the USA. I will be responding to Chinaís Tariffs this afternoon. This is a GREAT opportunity for the United States. Also, I am ordering all carriers, including Fed Ex, Amazon, UPS and the Post Office, to SEARCH FOR & REFUSE,....


....all deliveries of Fentanyl from China (or anywhere else!). Fentanyl kills 100,000 Americans a year. President Xi said this would stop - it didnít. Our Economy, because of our gains in the last 2 1/2 years, is MUCH larger than that of China. We will keep it that way!
I am starting to think that the leftist conspiracy theory that Trump might be slipping mentally and falling into early dementia or Alzheimer's has some merit reading this, especially after looking skywards the other day and proclaiming himself the chosen one.

Trump is a businessman. He would never take orders from an American president on how to run his business. Trump would have never let Reagan or a Bush tell him where he could buy goods for his Trump businesses, nevermind a Clinton or an Obama.

The guy is losing it. I am convinced.

Not trying to nitpick but there's no conspiracy involved in someone losing their faculties, though there could be a conspiracy to cover it up I suppose.

I don't know if it's worse if he's losing his mind or isn't. But putting his brand on the economy he inherited has so far been pretty much the only thing he's done that could have any kind of broad appeal. Whether it's a symptom of something more structural or not, it's not surprising he'd become increasingly unhinged as that started to slip away and largely due to acting on his own dumb ideas.


BTW it's scary as hell to me that the 4 people most likely to serve as President next term are all in their 70s and the incumbent and rival front-runner are both showing some significant red flags for decline. It's a real problem.

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #770 on: August 23, 2019, 02:55:41 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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This tirade is cute.  Ordering private businesses around?  Dow's having another stellar day.

Quote

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

Our Country has lost, stupidly, Trillions of Dollars with China over many years. They have stolen our Intellectual Property at a rate of Hundreds of Billions of Dollars a year, & they want to continue. I wonít let that happen! We donít need China and, frankly, would be far....


....better off without them. The vast amounts of money made and stolen by China from the United States, year after year, for decades, will and must STOP. Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing..




....your companies HOME and making your products in the USA. I will be responding to Chinaís Tariffs this afternoon. This is a GREAT opportunity for the United States. Also, I am ordering all carriers, including Fed Ex, Amazon, UPS and the Post Office, to SEARCH FOR & REFUSE,....


....all deliveries of Fentanyl from China (or anywhere else!). Fentanyl kills 100,000 Americans a year. President Xi said this would stop - it didnít. Our Economy, because of our gains in the last 2 1/2 years, is MUCH larger than that of China. We will keep it that way!
I am starting to think that the leftist conspiracy theory that Trump might be slipping mentally and falling into early dementia or Alzheimer's has some merit reading this, especially after looking skywards the other day and proclaiming himself the chosen one.

Trump is a businessman. He would never take orders from an American president on how to run his business. Trump would have never let Reagan or a Bush tell him where he could buy goods for his Trump businesses, nevermind a Clinton or an Obama.

The guy is losing it. I am convinced.

Not trying to nitpick but there's no conspiracy involved in someone losing their faculties, though there could be a conspiracy to cover it up I suppose.

I don't know if it's worse if he's losing his mind or isn't. But putting his brand on the economy he inherited has so far been pretty much the only thing he's done that could have any kind of broad appeal. Whether it's a symptom of something more structural or not, it's not surprising he'd become increasingly unhinged as that started to slip away and largely due to acting on his own dumb ideas.


BTW it's scary as hell to me that the 4 people most likely to serve as President next term are all in their 70s and the incumbent and rival front-runner are both showing some significant red flags for decline. It's a real problem.
I called it a conspiracy theory because it is all speculation and conjecture. We obviously do not have his medical reports but if a doctor representing the US had diagnosed dementia or Alzheimer's, Trump would most likely already be gone. Yes, those diseases could be a reason to explain some of his erratic behavior but so could character traits, a lower than average IQ and older age.

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #771 on: August 23, 2019, 02:56:02 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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This tirade is cute.  Ordering private businesses around?  Dow's having another stellar day.
Quote

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

Our Country has lost, stupidly, Trillions of Dollars with China over many years. They have stolen our Intellectual Property at a rate of Hundreds of Billions of Dollars a year, & they want to continue. I wonít let that happen! We donít need China and, frankly, would be far....


....better off without them. The vast amounts of money made and stolen by China from the United States, year after year, for decades, will and must STOP. Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing..




....your companies HOME and making your products in the USA. I will be responding to Chinaís Tariffs this afternoon. This is a GREAT opportunity for the United States. Also, I am ordering all carriers, including Fed Ex, Amazon, UPS and the Post Office, to SEARCH FOR & REFUSE,....


....all deliveries of Fentanyl from China (or anywhere else!). Fentanyl kills 100,000 Americans a year. President Xi said this would stop - it didnít. Our Economy, because of our gains in the last 2 1/2 years, is MUCH larger than that of China. We will keep it that way!
I am starting to think that the leftist conspiracy theory that Trump might be slipping mentally and falling into early dementia or Alzheimer's has some merit reading this, especially after looking skywards the other day and proclaiming himself the chosen one.

Trump is a businessman. He would never take orders from an American president on how to run his business. Trump would have never let Reagan or a Bush tell him where he could buy goods for his Trump businesses, nevermind a Clinton or an Obama.

The guy is losing it. I am convinced.

Not trying to nitpick but there's no conspiracy involved in someone losing their faculties, though there could be a conspiracy to cover it up I suppose.

I don't know if it's worse if he's losing his mind or isn't. But putting his brand on the economy he inherited has so far been pretty much the only thing he's done that could have any kind of broad appeal. Whether it's a symptom of something more structural or not, it's not surprising he'd become increasingly unhinged as that started to slip away and largely due to acting on his own dumb ideas.


BTW it's scary as hell to me that the 4 people most likely to serve as President next term are all in their 70s and the incumbent and rival front-runner are both showing some significant red flags for decline. It's a real problem.
VP choice may matter if Trump continues to slip and Biden becomes the nominee.   I'm not a fan of Pence's religious extremism being in charge the White House but I have little doubt he'd be far more stable than Trump has been with less scandal and a more traditional approach to governing (like stick with Allies and work against enemies -- you know, the stuff we used to take for granted) than Trump. 

If Biden gets the nod, I suspect he'll pick someone younger that has shown well in the campaign.  I doubt he'd pick Sanders or Warren but Harris wouldn't surprise me as his running mate if he overlooks where she made hay at his expense in the debates

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #772 on: December 05, 2019, 11:56:35 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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I didnít want to start a new thread, but I was curious:

How is everyoneís 401k doing?  Mine is up 29.84% YTD. Itís the best year I can remember having.  Are those results typical?  Weíre mostly in a Vanguard fund.

Common sense tells me that the market will ďcorrectĒ at some point. We invest roughly 11% of our income. Should we cut back on that so weíre not buying at near-peak prices, or do we just keep doing what weíre doing?
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Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #773 on: December 05, 2019, 12:00:57 PM »

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I didnít want to start a new thread, but I was curious:

How is everyoneís 401k doing?  Mine is up 29.84% YTD. Itís the best year I can remember having.  Are those results typical?  Weíre mostly in a Vanguard fund.

Common sense tells me that the market will ďcorrectĒ at some point. We invest roughly 11% of our income. Should we cut back on that so weíre not buying at near-peak prices, or do we just keep doing what weíre doing?

Mine's up 20.84%.  In a Fidelity Freedom fund.  I'm chipping in 14%.  I have no plans to alter at this point.    I do agree that there certainly seems like a detrimental correction in on the horizon, though.


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Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #774 on: December 05, 2019, 12:24:54 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Playing the "when do I move to a way more conservative investment because there will be a correction coming" balance is going to be tricky. Sooner or later, that bear market is coming. Question is how hard? And will there be a massive one session crash that will be the start of it? I remember my dad losing close to 40%(almost a half million)of his 401k back in 1990 in that crash. He never really recovered that money as he retired like 4 years later. For that reason I have mostly invested conservatively over the years. I would be hurt by a big crash if it happens but probably not nearly as bad as most.

« Last Edit: December 05, 2019, 12:51:09 PM by nickagneta »

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #775 on: December 05, 2019, 12:49:50 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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401K: 22.05% for the year.  due to a company re-org, this account was frozen and I cannot contribute to this fund or move the money to another fund.  Company made a very fishy move to freeze these accounts that impacted a lot of employees.
403B: 10.4%.  This was trending at less than 1% through the first 3 quarters this year so there's been a fair bounce back in the 4th quarter.  Still a disappointing rate of return for an economy that's supposedly booming. 

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #776 on: December 05, 2019, 01:20:49 PM »

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The economy has been too good to be true over the last few years. If you have been investing over that time, then good for you, but I would be leery of continuing that route. I am preparing for a 'correction' by transitioning to money market accounts with decent returns (many are better than cds) and waiting for the inevitable. I won't get too into politics here, but I preferred the steady, incremental (responsible) increases under Obama to the gasoline over a steady fire methods by our current administration.

The problem with the economy crashing is you never know until it's too late. Then you find out all of the reasons that led to the crash. I probably sound crazy, but it's just not worth it to lose all of your hard earned savings. If you've made solid-great returns up to this point, I say be happy with that and be ready to invest again when there is a downturn in the market...and many economists are saying that there will be one in 2020.

Edit: I should note that I have my own business and no longer have a 401k like I did in the 2000s. The tax free income/company matching is definitely something I miss. As byennie and bdm also mention, bonds aren't a half bad idea if you are skeptical of the current stock market.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2019, 03:38:16 PM by jambr380 »

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #777 on: December 05, 2019, 01:45:42 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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The economy has been too good to be true over the last few years. If you have been investing over that time, then good for you, but I would be leery of continuing that route. I am preparing for a 'correction' by transitioning to money market accounts with decent returns (many are better than cds) and waiting for the inevitable. I won't get too into politics here, but I preferred the steady, incremental (responsible) increases under Obama to the gasoline over a steady fire methods by our current administration.

The problem with the economy crashing is you never know until it's too late. Then you find out all of the reasons that led to the crash. I probably sound crazy, but it's just not worth it to lose all of your hard earned savings. If you've made solid-great returns up to this point, I say be happy with that and be ready to invest again when there is a downturn in the market...and many economists are saying that there will be one in 2020.
I suspect the rise or crash of the market will depend on the election results next year.  Trump wins - businesses can continue to anticipate regulation and industry oversight rollbacks (for better or worse) just like they did when he won in 2016.  Trump loses, I highly anticipate a bear market to kick in the day after the election results are verified regardless of which Dem wins.  To be clear, regardless of who wins in 2020, there will be a recession coming soon.  it's just a matter of when.  Trump pretty much used up the last tool available to prevent a downturn with that massive tax cut for the rich and corporations and the massive debt increase so once the economy takes that downturn, it could possibly be devastating without a viable method to try to shorten the recession.

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #778 on: December 05, 2019, 01:57:43 PM »

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Playing the "when do I move to a way more conservative investment because there will be a correction coming" balance is going to be tricky. Sooner or later, that bear market is coming. Question is how hard? And will there be a massive one session crash that will be the start of it? I remember my dad losing close to 40%(almost a half million)of his 401k back in 1990 in that crash. He never really recovered that money as he retired like 4 years later. For that reason I have mostly invested conservatively over the years. I would be hurt by a big crash if it happens but probably not nearly as bad as most.

This, doesn't seem right.

Stock market was at it's all time high in May '90.  Bottomed out in Oct '90, and by Feb '91 it was already setting record highs again.  Even if your dad held everything in cash his whole life, finally decided to invest at the peak in May '90, he would have been up after 9-10 months. Retiring sometime in '94 or '95, he'd be up 25%-70%, had he only invested everything at the peak and held on till retirement.

Of course this is going off the S&P 500 returns, and assuming he held.  Probably more common back then to be less diversified (having everything in only your company's stock, a poorly run fund, or a few blue chips).  Also may have sold at the bottom during the recession, and missed out on the gains from the recovery and been too jaded to get  back in.

But for anybody far away from retirement, buy and hold, can't time the market, yada, yada, yada.

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Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #779 on: December 05, 2019, 02:25:25 PM »

Offline byennie

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I didnít want to start a new thread, but I was curious:

How is everyoneís 401k doing?  Mine is up 29.84% YTD. Itís the best year I can remember having.  Are those results typical?  Weíre mostly in a Vanguard fund.

Common sense tells me that the market will ďcorrectĒ at some point. We invest roughly 11% of our income. Should we cut back on that so weíre not buying at near-peak prices, or do we just keep doing what weíre doing?

Generally speaking, if you have enough liquid assets/ rainy day fund to keep up the 11%, don't have an immediate cliff (e.g. retiring next year), and use a traditional IRA or 401k it's hard to beat the tax benefits of continuing to contribute and hold.

You're likely getting ~20-25% or more back in tax savings which is like a 25-33% built-in gain ($7-$8 in net contributions per $10 saved after refunds). So for every $100 you earn, you are getting $11 in your 401k *and* enough of a refund to put $2-$3 in a money market account.

Can also always adjust your 401k, if that's an option, and go heavier into bonds. Even if you go 100% bonds you'll hang on to that juicy tax write-off.