Author Topic: Trumpís Economy (merged)  (Read 33788 times)

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Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #630 on: January 05, 2019, 05:13:19 PM »

Offline kraidstar

  • Bailey Howell
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It is a good jobs report.  No one ever said that reckless deficit spending (in the form of a tax cut) wouldn't have a stimulating effect on the economy.  Wall Street doesn't seem to think it will last.  I don't either.  Actually the jobs number is a little hard to believe.  I guess stores hire for Christmas.  I don't know.

I wonder how many of those 312,000 jobs went to immigrants (legal or otherwise).  Where did all these workers come from all of the sudden?
all good points.  as you mentioned, I would suspect that many of those jobs were seasonal and would also suspect that many of the people filling those positions were taking them as second jobs to earn some supplemental income.  at this point, how can the economy have such a low unemployment rate yet have that many job positions being filled unless they're being filled as secondary jobs or by immigrants?

would also be curious as to the types of jobs that are being posted and filled.  are they high-paying jobs?  are they jobs that provide a sufficient income to live on while providing benefits?  are these the types of jobs that are considered career-oriented or just transient labor (i.e. a job that has no growth potential and not something that retains employees for long nor provides much of a stepping stone or resume filler for a better job)?

Part of it was that the workforce participation rate increased. In other words, people who had given up on looking for work rejoined the labor force.

Also, note that wages increased significantly. These arenít all dead-end jobs.
what would you consider 'significantly'?  to me, that'd be something 5% or above.  I believe the rate reported was 3.2% which I consider 'average'.  I've had years where I've increased my salary as much as 5% in a less booming economy without having to switch jobs. 

my question to the blog community here still stands from my other post in this thread --> is anyone here reaping any benefit from this supposed hot job market whether it be a better job, better-paying job or significant pay increase in their current job?

3.2% average wage growth isnít average.

For me, 2018 was my best year ever in private practice. My wife also saw her wages increase by a little over 6%. Between our income and lower taxes, weíve put more into savings, had more overnight trips, and spent more on remodeling the house than we have in years.

My younger brother has an auto paint correction business. Great year for him.

My older brother is a financial analyst. He switched jobs and increased his pay by over 30%. My sister-in-law works for IBM. Multiple co-workers lost their jobs, but she got a promotion and a significant raise.

Individual anecdotes are going to vary, though. Thatís why we look at nationwide numbers. Nationwide, both job creation and income growth are good.

I had an amazing year professionally. And I'm getting a massive tax cut which I don't need.

I drive around though and I see most people are getting different results. The ghettos are getting bigger and bigger. Go to Sanford Maine and tell me things are OK for most people. Stand in line at CVS and tell me there isn't a 50% chance the person next to you is falling down drunk or a junkie. These people are tired broken,  visibly unhealthy. 40-year-olds look like they are 65.

It's the same in Lewiston, Biddeford, Saco, the outer edges of Portland, Laconia NH, Rochester NH, Somersworth NH, Nashua, Manchester.

I just named a good chunk of southern NH/Maine right there. All those places are sketchy and I wouldn't want to walk around them at night if I were female.

Rent is disturbingly high too. Except to pay a grand per month for a 2-bedroom dump. Add in utilities, medical costs, and car costs, and the money dries up quickly even if someone isn't technically "dirt poor."

But yeah, things are good for maybe 20% of us. So there's that.

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #631 on: January 05, 2019, 05:27:44 PM »

Offline slamtheking

  • Bill Sharman
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It is a good jobs report.  No one ever said that reckless deficit spending (in the form of a tax cut) wouldn't have a stimulating effect on the economy.  Wall Street doesn't seem to think it will last.  I don't either.  Actually the jobs number is a little hard to believe.  I guess stores hire for Christmas.  I don't know.

I wonder how many of those 312,000 jobs went to immigrants (legal or otherwise).  Where did all these workers come from all of the sudden?
all good points.  as you mentioned, I would suspect that many of those jobs were seasonal and would also suspect that many of the people filling those positions were taking them as second jobs to earn some supplemental income.  at this point, how can the economy have such a low unemployment rate yet have that many job positions being filled unless they're being filled as secondary jobs or by immigrants?

would also be curious as to the types of jobs that are being posted and filled.  are they high-paying jobs?  are they jobs that provide a sufficient income to live on while providing benefits?  are these the types of jobs that are considered career-oriented or just transient labor (i.e. a job that has no growth potential and not something that retains employees for long nor provides much of a stepping stone or resume filler for a better job)?

Part of it was that the workforce participation rate increased. In other words, people who had given up on looking for work rejoined the labor force.

Also, note that wages increased significantly. These arenít all dead-end jobs.
what would you consider 'significantly'?  to me, that'd be something 5% or above.  I believe the rate reported was 3.2% which I consider 'average'.  I've had years where I've increased my salary as much as 5% in a less booming economy without having to switch jobs. 

my question to the blog community here still stands from my other post in this thread --> is anyone here reaping any benefit from this supposed hot job market whether it be a better job, better-paying job or significant pay increase in their current job?

3.2% average wage growth isnít average.

For me, 2018 was my best year ever in private practice. My wife also saw her wages increase by a little over 6%. Between our income and lower taxes, weíve put more into savings, had more overnight trips, and spent more on remodeling the house than we have in years.

My younger brother has an auto paint correction business. Great year for him.

My older brother is a financial analyst. He switched jobs and increased his pay by over 30%. My sister-in-law works for IBM. Multiple co-workers lost their jobs, but she got a promotion and a significant raise.

Individual anecdotes are going to vary, though. Thatís why we look at nationwide numbers. Nationwide, both job creation and income growth are good.

I had an amazing year professionally. And I'm getting a massive tax cut which I don't need.

I drive around though and I see most people are getting different results. The ghettos are getting bigger and bigger. Go to Sanford Maine and tell me things are OK for most people. Stand in line at CVS and tell me there isn't a 50% chance the person next to you is falling down drunk or a junkie. These people are tired broken,  visibly unhealthy. 40-year-olds look like they are 65.

It's the same in Lewiston, Biddeford, Saco, the outer edges of Portland, Laconia NH, Rochester NH, Somersworth NH, Nashua, Manchester.

I just named a good chunk of southern NH/Maine right there. All those places are sketchy and I wouldn't want to walk around them at night if I were female.

Rent is disturbingly high too. Except to pay a grand per month for a 2-bedroom dump. Add in utilities, medical costs, and car costs, and the money dries up quickly even if someone isn't technically "dirt poor."

But yeah, things are good for maybe 20% of us. So there's that.
this is the kind of info I'm hoping to get from people here.  great for you and for Roy and his family.  would have been good to hear if his friends are doing as well but the IBM story lines up with other people in the tech world I know. 

anyone else have something to share on whether they're benefitting from this job market?

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #632 on: January 05, 2019, 05:32:41 PM »

Offline slamtheking

  • Bill Sharman
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  • Posts: 19698
  • Tommy Points: 9018
It is a good jobs report.  No one ever said that reckless deficit spending (in the form of a tax cut) wouldn't have a stimulating effect on the economy.  Wall Street doesn't seem to think it will last.  I don't either.  Actually the jobs number is a little hard to believe.  I guess stores hire for Christmas.  I don't know.

I wonder how many of those 312,000 jobs went to immigrants (legal or otherwise).  Where did all these workers come from all of the sudden?

How many unemployed citizens or documented immigrants were there at the time these jobs were created?  Was it more or less than the jobs created?  How many of those jobs were filled by imported foreign labor or undocumented immigrants?  How many filled by people already legally living here?

These are the numbers I'm interested in, and seem most relevant to the question of whether or not we should continue to import labor.  Employers should not be given a pass to hire labor at below market rate via imported labor, it's poor policy and harms the unemployed already living here legally.
this is an overlooked component to this job market IMHO.  My company filled a lot of it's IT positions with lower-salaried people on work visas from India and China.  this probably skews my opinion of these job reports because I see firsthand that a number of the good-paying positions filled in my division don't go to Americans but to people on work visas OR the jobs are outsourced to companies that send these jobs overseas to India where the salaries drop even further. 

Re: Trumpís Economy (merged)
« Reply #633 on: January 05, 2019, 05:33:29 PM »

Offline chicagoceltic

  • Al Horford
  • Posts: 672
  • Tommy Points: 141
It is a good jobs report.  No one ever said that reckless deficit spending (in the form of a tax cut) wouldn't have a stimulating effect on the economy.  Wall Street doesn't seem to think it will last.  I don't either.  Actually the jobs number is a little hard to believe.  I guess stores hire for Christmas.  I don't know.

I wonder how many of those 312,000 jobs went to immigrants (legal or otherwise).  Where did all these workers come from all of the sudden?
all good points.  as you mentioned, I would suspect that many of those jobs were seasonal and would also suspect that many of the people filling those positions were taking them as second jobs to earn some supplemental income.  at this point, how can the economy have such a low unemployment rate yet have that many job positions being filled unless they're being filled as secondary jobs or by immigrants?

would also be curious as to the types of jobs that are being posted and filled.  are they high-paying jobs?  are they jobs that provide a sufficient income to live on while providing benefits?  are these the types of jobs that are considered career-oriented or just transient labor (i.e. a job that has no growth potential and not something that retains employees for long nor provides much of a stepping stone or resume filler for a better job)?

Part of it was that the workforce participation rate increased. In other words, people who had given up on looking for work rejoined the labor force.

Also, note that wages increased significantly. These arenít all dead-end jobs.
what would you consider 'significantly'?  to me, that'd be something 5% or above.  I believe the rate reported was 3.2% which I consider 'average'.  I've had years where I've increased my salary as much as 5% in a less booming economy without having to switch jobs. 

my question to the blog community here still stands from my other post in this thread --> is anyone here reaping any benefit from this supposed hot job market whether it be a better job, better-paying job or significant pay increase in their current job?

3.2% average wage growth isnít average.

For me, 2018 was my best year ever in private practice. My wife also saw her wages increase by a little over 6%. Between our income and lower taxes, weíve put more into savings, had more overnight trips, and spent more on remodeling the house than we have in years.

My younger brother has an auto paint correction business. Great year for him.

My older brother is a financial analyst. He switched jobs and increased his pay by over 30%. My sister-in-law works for IBM. Multiple co-workers lost their jobs, but she got a promotion and a significant raise.

Individual anecdotes are going to vary, though. Thatís why we look at nationwide numbers. Nationwide, both job creation and income growth are good.

I had an amazing year professionally. And I'm getting a massive tax cut which I don't need.

I drive around though and I see most people are getting different results. The ghettos are getting bigger and bigger. Go to Sanford Maine and tell me things are OK for most people. Stand in line at CVS and tell me there isn't a 50% chance the person next to you is falling down drunk or a junkie. These people are tired broken,  visibly unhealthy. 40-year-olds look like they are 65.

It's the same in Lewiston, Biddeford, Saco, the outer edges of Portland, Laconia NH, Rochester NH, Somersworth NH, Nashua, Manchester.

I just named a good chunk of southern NH/Maine right there. All those places are sketchy and I wouldn't want to walk around them at night if I were female.

Rent is disturbingly high too. Except to pay a grand per month for a 2-bedroom dump. Add in utilities, medical costs, and car costs, and the money dries up quickly even if someone isn't technically "dirt poor."

But yeah, things are good for maybe 20% of us. So there's that.
this is the kind of info I'm hoping to get from people here.  great for you and for Roy and his family.  would have been good to hear if his friends are doing as well but the IBM story lines up with other people in the tech world I know. 

anyone else have something to share on whether they're benefitting from this job market?
Of course there are exceptions but from the people I know and deal with it seems as though the affluent are more affluent and those that are not are doing no better than they were.  That really is not a surprise in my opinion.
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