Trump’s Economy (merged)

[Neurotic Guy]

Winning…Big League! The Economy Created 250,000 Jobs in October, Wages Rise More Than 3% for First Time Since Recession

https://www.marke****ch.com/story/us-adds-250000-jobs-in-october-wages-rise-at-fastest-pace-in-more-than-nine-years-2018-11-02

LOSING BIG LEAGUE!!

my company laid off 38 people in a choice between layoffs or cutting employee pay 10% across the board.   not only that, we have a much higher employee contribution for health benefits next year where my company is kicking in less than $2 a week towards an employee's dental coverage while the employee is ponying up about $28. 

don't pass off Trump's BS policies as having a booming economy for everyone.

Has there every been an administration, in the history of recorded time, where every single business or individual benefitted?

Overall, the country’s economy is doing significantly better. If your company is doing poorly, look to management, then local control, then state politics.

It might be a better question to ask whether there has ever been an economy that has been less a measure of success when it comes to the POTUS?   We have an economy that has continued to thrive -- but we have a president who is leading us into a pit.  I'd prefer a "swamp" to what we have now. 

I am voting for my republican governor next week because I vote for Republicans when they do a good job. 

The economy is irrelevant to my opinion of how our current president is doing and how we are doing as a country.  Things have never been worse in my lifetime (IMO).  We are losing - and we are losing more every day.

But some people have more money.  Good for them.

[SCeltic34]

I'm genuinely curious what makes people - whether you're a Trump supporter or not - think that this is going to last.  I'm all ears. 

An economic stimulus from a debt financed tax cut rigged towards the wealthy that was rammed through in two months time, coupled with large scale deregulation.  Deregulating is easy.  Kinda like how Hinkie tore down the Sixers roster to tank.  Easy.  Anyone can tear things down.  Building for the future with sensible policies that foster harmony between economics and the social good is far more difficult.

If the past is any indicator, federal tax cuts are followed by short term economic gains, but they're never sustained and taxes need to be raised shortly after.  And this tax cut is unprecedented in nature.  I'm not impressed yet - I'll give Trump some credit for the short term economic boost but really it's to be expected following a tax cut.  If the growth is sustained 3 years from now, I'll give him a lot of credit.  Some expert economists predict that the growth with slow back into the mid 2% range in upcoming years, and some predict a recession by 2020.  I guess we'll see.

[Roy H.]

Some expert economists predict that the growth with slow back into the mid 2% range in upcoming years

Would sustained 2.5% growth be that bad? The economy only exceeded 2.5% annual growth once under Obama, reaching  2.6%, despite a giant stimulus and unprecedented deficits.

[SCeltic34]

Some expert economists predict that the growth with slow back into the mid 2% range in upcoming years

Would sustained 2.5% growth be that bad? The economy only exceeded 2.5% annual growth once under Obama, reaching  2.6%, despite a giant stimulus and unprecedented deficits.

No, not bad necessarily.  It just leads back to my question about the good times lasting.  Trump and the GOP injected "rocket fuel" (their words, not mine) into the economy - a solid economy that they inherited.  What happens when that fuel runs out?

It's also worth mentioning that the growth was probably artificially high recently because of tariffs.  Spend before the tariffs go into effect.  Business investment has tapered off, and much of the corporate tax cut went into stock buybacks.  Meh.

Again, is there a strong argument that this can be sustained over the long haul?  In my armchair assessment we're headed for a recession within 3 years based on past events.

[Moranis]

3 years, heck 3 months might hit the recession the way the economy has been going lately.  And this battle with China is really heating up after the arrest of a major Chinese executive. 

[heyvik]

3 years, heck 3 months might hit the recession the way the economy has been going lately.  And this battle with China is really heating up after the arrest of a major Chinese executive.

so it looks like all the gains that POTUS has claimed is gone for 2018. I gave him credit when it booming and I will criticize when its not. He always claims 'it's because of him', so when its down, I hope he claims 'its because of him'.

Dow plunges triple digits, turns negative for 2018
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/dow-plunges-triple-digits-turns-negative-for-2018

[manl_lui]

3 years, heck 3 months might hit the recession the way the economy has been going lately.  And this battle with China is really heating up after the arrest of a major Chinese executive.

so it looks like all the gains that POTUS has claimed is gone for 2018. I gave him credit when it booming and I will criticize when its not. He always claims 'it's because of him', so when its down, I hope he claims 'its because of him'.

Dow plunges triple digits, turns negative for 2018
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/dow-plunges-triple-digits-turns-negative-for-2018

yea it'd be interesting on how things will turn out now that the CFO of huawei is arrested. What stood out to me was she was arrested in Vancouver and transported to NY. I have to imagine tension must be sky high right now

[Fan from VT]

3 years, heck 3 months might hit the recession the way the economy has been going lately.  And this battle with China is really heating up after the arrest of a major Chinese executive.

At least the millionaires and billionaires got to line their pockets with a massive give back so we could enjoy a couple months of artificial "boost" of the economy!!

[Donoghus]

At least the trickle down seems to be working, right? 

[slamtheking]

At least the trickle down seems to be working, right? 

'Trickle Down' better describes the feeling on your leg after the rich have just peed on your leg and told you it was raining

[Fan from VT]

At least the trickle down seems to be working, right? 

'Trickle Down' better describes the feeling on your leg after the rich have just peed on your leg and told you it was raining

More like they pee on your leg and tell you to be grateful and thank them for keeping you hydrated.

[Roy H.]

I know way too little about economics, but how much of the downturn is due to raising interest rates? There seems to at least be a correlation there.

[adam8]

I know way too little about economics, but how much of the downturn is due to raising interest rates? There seems to at least be a correlation there.

The interest rates are going up because of an ill advised tax cut.

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/fed-raises-us-interest-rates-as-trump-tax-cuts-heat-up-economy-14724854

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/26/us/politics/federal-reserve-raises-interest-rates.html

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/the-fed-didnt-raise-interest-rates-to-annoy-trump-they-did-it-because-of-tax-cuts

This was well advertised at the time of the tax cuts that this would most likely happen, when the economy is good that is not when you cut taxes.

[nickagneta]

I know way too little about economics, but how much of the downturn is due to raising interest rates? There seems to at least be a correlation there.

The interest rates are going up because of an ill advised tax cut.

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/fed-raises-us-interest-rates-as-trump-tax-cuts-heat-up-economy-14724854

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/26/us/politics/federal-reserve-raises-interest-rates.html

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/the-fed-didnt-raise-interest-rates-to-annoy-trump-they-did-it-because-of-tax-cuts

This was well advertised at the time of the tax cuts that this would most likely happen, when the economy is good that is not when you cut taxes.

Also, recent links to the economy turning down has been Trump's tariff wars. The fall Tuesday in the market of 800points was almost unanimously blamed on the distrust of China and the USA to come to a permanent trade treaty.

And for the first time in a long time respected economists are talking a recession not too far down the road and are blaming it on the tax cut, the Trump trade wars, the fed having to raise interest rates to offset massive inflation, and the instability in the American government as well as Britain leaving the European Union.

[indeedproceed]

But the uncertainty on display in gyrating financial markets this week has darkened expectations for Trump's last two years. In the fourth quarter of 2018, forecasters already see growth slowing from the 4.2 percent and 3.5 percent recorded in the second and third quarters, respectively. Job growth fell short of expectations in November, according to data released Friday morning.

For 2019 and beyond, they expect growth to slow progressively further as fiscal stimulus from lower taxes and higher spending winds down. Many predict the economy will lapse into recession in 2020.

"A strong dollar, weaker growth abroad, mounting corporate debt, a slowdown in housing and the ongoing havoc that tariffs are wreaking on global supply chains are each taking a toll," Diane Swonk, chief economist for Grant Thornton LLP, wrote this week. "No one knows for sure which straw will break the camel's back, only that they are piling up."

Swonk has accelerated her previous prediction of recession from the second half of 2020 to the first half. In October, the National Association for Business Economics reported that two-thirds of forecasters it surveyed expect recession by the end of Trump's re-election year.

...

1)After inheriting a strong economy from Obama, Trump is in now way prepared for a recession, and the steps he has already taken will make it almost impossible to respond.

2) Because of his tax bill, which amounted to a huge give away to corporations and the wealthy, there are already run-away deficits and there is almost no capacity for more stimulus from Congress.

3) Interest rates, while rising, remain low which limit the Fed's capacity to do much through rate cuts.

4) Trump's own trade war with China, which he seems to have little idea how to end, is increasing the pressure on the global economy, roiling markets, risking inflation, and adding new uncertainties

5) His attacks on the Fed suggest his strategy will be to blame others for any economic downturn, starting with the Fed

6) He will also try to blame Democrats in Congress, even though his own totally partisan and counter-productive tax bill will be the reason that Congress will have limited capacity to do anything substantial.

7) The dysfunctional White House - often treated as a source of amusement - would be a further obstacle to rational decision-making.

8) Remember that unlike Obama - who inherited the Great Recession and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan - Trump was handed years of GDP and job growth, and far fewer troops in harm's way. He is in no way prepared to govern in a crisis, foreign or domestic.

9) Thus far the crises of the Trump years have been largely of his own making. Over the next two years, reality could intrude, whether it's in the form of an economic downturn at home or a crisis abroad, likely brought about in part from the decisions he has already made.

...

Those who appreciate the Donald Trump presidency for its transparent refusal to apply lipstick to piggish federal policy have a new example to point to. The Daily Beast is reporting that Trump "has repeatedly shrugged" off any concerns about the massive and rapidly expanding national debt, reportedly saying about the day of debt-reckoning, "Yeah, but I won't be here."

Discuss.