Poll

Guess: Who Is Lebron Playing For After This Season?

Cleveland Cavaliers (He Stays)
33 (30.6%)
Houston Rockets
13 (12%)
Los Angeles Clippers
3 (2.8%)
Los Angeles Lakers
32 (29.6%)
New York Knicks
4 (3.7%)
Boston Celtics (Hey... Who Knows)
4 (3.7%)
Philadelphia 76ers
9 (8.3%)
Milwaukee Bucks
1 (0.9%)
San Antonio Spurs
6 (5.6%)
Other Team (Comment Below!)
3 (2.8%)

Total Members Voted: 108

Author Topic: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?  (Read 49651 times)

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Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #165 on: April 03, 2018, 12:01:57 PM »

Offline green_bballers13

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At some point in the near future, LeBron will take his talents to a max contract. The team that signs him to a max deal is going to regret it halfway into it. It may not be obvious to the untrained eye, but he is showing signs of slowing down. Athletic only players don't age well, and he has so many miles on the tires. He has no jumpshot or 3 pointer to fall back on, so once the motor starts to die down, he's finished.

Add to that our serious (i.e. we are the favorites to win every year) championship window is in about 3 years from now when Horford comes off the books (re-signs for Vet Min or MLE, please?) and Tatum is a top 20 player in the league, and you shouldn't concern yourself too much with LeBron. He should be doing his farewell tour by then on an inflated contract.

He's also not going to Philly. A young team and a 34 year old looking to win now are incompatible. He's going to join a sure thing like the coward we all know him to be.
I don't even know where to begin with this post.  Just so much wrong with it. 

First, James has had 5 of his last 7 season shooting over 36% from three.  While not elite, that certainly is good enough.  Those same 5 seasons, he also shot well over 40% from 10-16 feet.  Again, not elite, but again good enough.  His TS% in each of the last two seasons is 61.9% and his eFG% is pushing 60%, which is most definitely elite.  He doesn't get all of those shots solely because he is an elite athlete, he gets them because he is highly skilled and incredibly strong as well. 

Second, physically Karl Malone is probably the best comparison.  He was a similar height and similar strength.  James is obviously far more athletic than Malone ever was, but they look fairly similar physically.  Malone was never injured until his final year in the league at age 40.  At age 39 Malone played in 80 games and was still averaging over 20 a game.  He won the MVP at age 35, finished 4th at age 36, and 7th at 37.  Now obviously James isn't Malone, but the physical similarities can't be disregarded either. 

Third, the Sixers are the exact type of team a guy like James would join if his goal was to continue winning championships.  They have at least 2 franchise level talents in Embiid and Simmons (that doesn't mean they both fulfill that potential or that they stay healthy) as well as Fultz (who was the #1 pick for a reason), Saric (who has all star level talent), and Covington (solid 3 and D level starter).  They have other young NBA bench level players (McConnell, Holmes, Luwawu-Cabarrot, Korkmaz).  They have the Lakers or Kings pick in addition to every single one of their own picks.  With a simple salary dump of Bayless, they have room to offer James a max contract.  They can then use some of their assets to acquire another top level player (think the Love trade), while still keeping Embiid and Simmons.  The Sixers are a 50 win team (or right near it) without James and basically without Fultz (thus making them a far better team than the Cleveland team James joined when he went back home).  You add James to that team, they are the clear favorites in the East for at least the next couple of seasons, and it really isn't much of a debate. 

James is easy to hate and easy to dislike, so I don't know why anyone needs to just make stuff up to hate on him.

Definitely a popular opinion. Can't say I blame you. In two years from now, you'll see that I'm most likely correct. Numbers rarely lie and "father time always wins." A few points:

1) Karl Malone came into the league at 22. If comparing them, you need to compare LeBron's current season to Malone's at 36. As you can see, sure he might give you 1 or 2 more "good" years, but is Malone's production at 39 worth a max deal? Definitely not. Also, Malone had a disgusting post game. Other than athleticism, LeBron's real only spectacular offensive ability is court vision/passing. He can be a point guard at some point once the legs and back start failing. Like I said, though, it's an overpay. There are far better ACTUAL point guards than him that can be gotten for dirt cheap. He's just impressive because he's athletic AND can be a PG. Again, it all goes back to athleticism.

2) His shooting levels are not max worthy. You can't hype them enough to have a leg to stand on in this argument. He's a very average shooter. In fact, teams used to just dare him to shoot when he was actually unstoppable driving to the lane. Now that he isn't that explosive anymore and his shooting is up, they're taking the compromise and guarding him midway. He still has a long way to go, though, to be useful in his twilight years.

3) Embiid and Simmons are already franchise levels talents? Give me a break. I'm afraid to inform you that the koolaid was poison. You also had the nerve to even mention Markelle Fultz? Saric? Covington? McConnell?? Jesus Christ you sound like a 76ers fanboy or Danny Ainge when talking about Terry Rozier. While the team MAY be good (depending on Embiid's health) in say 3 or 4 years, LeBron will be long past his prime by then. This isn't a good situation for him.

I believe that he goes to a team like the Rockets or Spurs.

Disgusting? Is that like "sick" or "dope"?

Lebron is a much better athlete than Malone. Leaps and bounds better. His athleticism should last much longer than Malone's did. While Malone did play college (and you play less games in college), are we supposed to discount Malone's mileage in college?

You're trying to break Lebron down into components when analyzing his skills. This doesn't work because the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Lebron's combo of size, skill, and athleticism is unmatched in NBA history. You can nitpick his jump shot all day long, but he is the size of Malone with Magic passing. When he drives to the lane, no one can stop him. They can foul him, but no one will consistently get clean blocks down low.

I don't think we need to preface that Embiid is an injury waiting to happen. That Fultz takedown was super flukey. Embiid has had good movement this year, and seems to have gotten over the lower body injury bug. PHI should manage his time, so I doubt you'll ever get 80 reg season games out of him, but I expect you'll be seeing him in the playoffs for years to come. None of us really can tell if he will continue to get hurt. I'm sure the Philly GM would love a crystal ball. What we do know is that he can play at a very high level in the NBA, and other players/GMs have given rave reviews of his game early in his career. Embiid can be similar to Olajuwon- he's that talented.

Simmons is also unique. While I'm not sure how Lebron and Simmons would play together, I'm very intrigued by the mismatch in size/athleticism. Throw in a Klay Thompson type shooter and its game, set, match.

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #166 on: April 03, 2018, 12:23:38 PM »

Offline Erik

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At some point in the near future, LeBron will take his talents to a max contract. The team that signs him to a max deal is going to regret it halfway into it. It may not be obvious to the untrained eye, but he is showing signs of slowing down. Athletic only players don't age well, and he has so many miles on the tires. He has no jumpshot or 3 pointer to fall back on, so once the motor starts to die down, he's finished.

Add to that our serious (i.e. we are the favorites to win every year) championship window is in about 3 years from now when Horford comes off the books (re-signs for Vet Min or MLE, please?) and Tatum is a top 20 player in the league, and you shouldn't concern yourself too much with LeBron. He should be doing his farewell tour by then on an inflated contract.

He's also not going to Philly. A young team and a 34 year old looking to win now are incompatible. He's going to join a sure thing like the coward we all know him to be.
I don't even know where to begin with this post.  Just so much wrong with it. 

First, James has had 5 of his last 7 season shooting over 36% from three.  While not elite, that certainly is good enough.  Those same 5 seasons, he also shot well over 40% from 10-16 feet.  Again, not elite, but again good enough.  His TS% in each of the last two seasons is 61.9% and his eFG% is pushing 60%, which is most definitely elite.  He doesn't get all of those shots solely because he is an elite athlete, he gets them because he is highly skilled and incredibly strong as well. 

Second, physically Karl Malone is probably the best comparison.  He was a similar height and similar strength.  James is obviously far more athletic than Malone ever was, but they look fairly similar physically.  Malone was never injured until his final year in the league at age 40.  At age 39 Malone played in 80 games and was still averaging over 20 a game.  He won the MVP at age 35, finished 4th at age 36, and 7th at 37.  Now obviously James isn't Malone, but the physical similarities can't be disregarded either. 

Third, the Sixers are the exact type of team a guy like James would join if his goal was to continue winning championships.  They have at least 2 franchise level talents in Embiid and Simmons (that doesn't mean they both fulfill that potential or that they stay healthy) as well as Fultz (who was the #1 pick for a reason), Saric (who has all star level talent), and Covington (solid 3 and D level starter).  They have other young NBA bench level players (McConnell, Holmes, Luwawu-Cabarrot, Korkmaz).  They have the Lakers or Kings pick in addition to every single one of their own picks.  With a simple salary dump of Bayless, they have room to offer James a max contract.  They can then use some of their assets to acquire another top level player (think the Love trade), while still keeping Embiid and Simmons.  The Sixers are a 50 win team (or right near it) without James and basically without Fultz (thus making them a far better team than the Cleveland team James joined when he went back home).  You add James to that team, they are the clear favorites in the East for at least the next couple of seasons, and it really isn't much of a debate. 

James is easy to hate and easy to dislike, so I don't know why anyone needs to just make stuff up to hate on him.

Definitely a popular opinion. Can't say I blame you. In two years from now, you'll see that I'm most likely correct. Numbers rarely lie and "father time always wins." A few points:

1) Karl Malone came into the league at 22. If comparing them, you need to compare LeBron's current season to Malone's at 36. As you can see, sure he might give you 1 or 2 more "good" years, but is Malone's production at 39 worth a max deal? Definitely not. Also, Malone had a disgusting post game. Other than athleticism, LeBron's real only spectacular offensive ability is court vision/passing. He can be a point guard at some point once the legs and back start failing. Like I said, though, it's an overpay. There are far better ACTUAL point guards than him that can be gotten for dirt cheap. He's just impressive because he's athletic AND can be a PG. Again, it all goes back to athleticism.

2) His shooting levels are not max worthy. You can't hype them enough to have a leg to stand on in this argument. He's a very average shooter. In fact, teams used to just dare him to shoot when he was actually unstoppable driving to the lane. Now that he isn't that explosive anymore and his shooting is up, they're taking the compromise and guarding him midway. He still has a long way to go, though, to be useful in his twilight years.

3) Embiid and Simmons are already franchise levels talents? Give me a break. I'm afraid to inform you that the koolaid was poison. You also had the nerve to even mention Markelle Fultz? Saric? Covington? McConnell?? Jesus Christ you sound like a 76ers fanboy or Danny Ainge when talking about Terry Rozier. While the team MAY be good (depending on Embiid's health) in say 3 or 4 years, LeBron will be long past his prime by then. This isn't a good situation for him.

I believe that he goes to a team like the Rockets or Spurs.

Disgusting? Is that like "sick" or "dope"?

Lebron is a much better athlete than Malone. Leaps and bounds better. His athleticism should last much longer than Malone's did. While Malone did play college (and you play less games in college), are we supposed to discount Malone's mileage in college?

You're trying to break Lebron down into components when analyzing his skills. This doesn't work because the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Lebron's combo of size, skill, and athleticism is unmatched in NBA history. You can nitpick his jump shot all day long, but he is the size of Malone with Magic passing. When he drives to the lane, no one can stop him. They can foul him, but no one will consistently get clean blocks down low.

I don't think we need to preface that Embiid is an injury waiting to happen. That Fultz takedown was super flukey. Embiid has had good movement this year, and seems to have gotten over the lower body injury bug. PHI should manage his time, so I doubt you'll ever get 80 reg season games out of him, but I expect you'll be seeing him in the playoffs for years to come. None of us really can tell if he will continue to get hurt. I'm sure the Philly GM would love a crystal ball. What we do know is that he can play at a very high level in the NBA, and other players/GMs have given rave reviews of his game early in his career. Embiid can be similar to Olajuwon- he's that talented.

Simmons is also unique. While I'm not sure how Lebron and Simmons would play together, I'm very intrigued by the mismatch in size/athleticism. Throw in a Klay Thompson type shooter and its game, set, match.

Yeah disgusting as in very good.

Regarding Malone:
1) Yes I am discounting college because for a player of Malone's level, it's like if I were playing a 30 minute game against 8 year olds. It's not mileage it's basically just working out. LeBron came in at 19 and hit the ground running at 40 minutes a game against the best players in the world (NBA). No rookie watching, full load.

2) I agree that LeBron is more athletic, however, I disagree that because he is more athletic he somehow has more athleticism to lose as if it's a sort of expendable resource. It doesn't quite work that way. More often than not how it goes down is you get injured (nothing horrific.. just a sprain here, a tear there). At 34 years old, once you get injured, it's a very rapid decline regardless of your initial athleticism. The fact that his game is primarily based on athleticism means that he has so much more to lose.

I just can't believe that with all of the data we have on player decline vs age that my opinion is the contrarian view.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2018, 12:31:39 PM by Erik »

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #167 on: April 03, 2018, 12:33:29 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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At some point in the near future, LeBron will take his talents to a max contract. The team that signs him to a max deal is going to regret it halfway into it. It may not be obvious to the untrained eye, but he is showing signs of slowing down. Athletic only players don't age well, and he has so many miles on the tires. He has no jumpshot or 3 pointer to fall back on, so once the motor starts to die down, he's finished.

Add to that our serious (i.e. we are the favorites to win every year) championship window is in about 3 years from now when Horford comes off the books (re-signs for Vet Min or MLE, please?) and Tatum is a top 20 player in the league, and you shouldn't concern yourself too much with LeBron. He should be doing his farewell tour by then on an inflated contract.

He's also not going to Philly. A young team and a 34 year old looking to win now are incompatible. He's going to join a sure thing like the coward we all know him to be.
I don't even know where to begin with this post.  Just so much wrong with it. 

First, James has had 5 of his last 7 season shooting over 36% from three.  While not elite, that certainly is good enough.  Those same 5 seasons, he also shot well over 40% from 10-16 feet.  Again, not elite, but again good enough.  His TS% in each of the last two seasons is 61.9% and his eFG% is pushing 60%, which is most definitely elite.  He doesn't get all of those shots solely because he is an elite athlete, he gets them because he is highly skilled and incredibly strong as well. 

Second, physically Karl Malone is probably the best comparison.  He was a similar height and similar strength.  James is obviously far more athletic than Malone ever was, but they look fairly similar physically.  Malone was never injured until his final year in the league at age 40.  At age 39 Malone played in 80 games and was still averaging over 20 a game.  He won the MVP at age 35, finished 4th at age 36, and 7th at 37.  Now obviously James isn't Malone, but the physical similarities can't be disregarded either. 

Third, the Sixers are the exact type of team a guy like James would join if his goal was to continue winning championships.  They have at least 2 franchise level talents in Embiid and Simmons (that doesn't mean they both fulfill that potential or that they stay healthy) as well as Fultz (who was the #1 pick for a reason), Saric (who has all star level talent), and Covington (solid 3 and D level starter).  They have other young NBA bench level players (McConnell, Holmes, Luwawu-Cabarrot, Korkmaz).  They have the Lakers or Kings pick in addition to every single one of their own picks.  With a simple salary dump of Bayless, they have room to offer James a max contract.  They can then use some of their assets to acquire another top level player (think the Love trade), while still keeping Embiid and Simmons.  The Sixers are a 50 win team (or right near it) without James and basically without Fultz (thus making them a far better team than the Cleveland team James joined when he went back home).  You add James to that team, they are the clear favorites in the East for at least the next couple of seasons, and it really isn't much of a debate. 

James is easy to hate and easy to dislike, so I don't know why anyone needs to just make stuff up to hate on him.

Definitely a popular opinion. Can't say I blame you. In two years from now, you'll see that I'm most likely correct. Numbers rarely lie and "father time always wins." A few points:

1) Karl Malone came into the league at 22. If comparing them, you need to compare LeBron's current season to Malone's at 36. As you can see, sure he might give you 1 or 2 more "good" years, but is Malone's production at 39 worth a max deal? Definitely not. Also, Malone had a disgusting post game. Other than athleticism, LeBron's real only spectacular offensive ability is court vision/passing. He can be a point guard at some point once the legs and back start failing. Like I said, though, it's an overpay. There are far better ACTUAL point guards than him that can be gotten for dirt cheap. He's just impressive because he's athletic AND can be a PG. Again, it all goes back to athleticism.

2) His shooting levels are not max worthy. You can't hype them enough to have a leg to stand on in this argument. He's a very average shooter. In fact, teams used to just dare him to shoot when he was actually unstoppable driving to the lane. Now that he isn't that explosive anymore and his shooting is up, they're taking the compromise and guarding him midway. He still has a long way to go, though, to be useful in his twilight years.

3) Embiid and Simmons are already franchise levels talents? Give me a break. I'm afraid to inform you that the koolaid was poison. You also had the nerve to even mention Markelle Fultz? Saric? Covington? McConnell?? Jesus Christ you sound like a 76ers fanboy or Danny Ainge when talking about Terry Rozier. While the team MAY be good (depending on Embiid's health) in say 3 or 4 years, LeBron will be long past his prime by then. This isn't a good situation for him.

I believe that he goes to a team like the Rockets or Spurs.

Disgusting? Is that like "sick" or "dope"?

Lebron is a much better athlete than Malone. Leaps and bounds better. His athleticism should last much longer than Malone's did. While Malone did play college (and you play less games in college), are we supposed to discount Malone's mileage in college?

You're trying to break Lebron down into components when analyzing his skills. This doesn't work because the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Lebron's combo of size, skill, and athleticism is unmatched in NBA history. You can nitpick his jump shot all day long, but he is the size of Malone with Magic passing. When he drives to the lane, no one can stop him. They can foul him, but no one will consistently get clean blocks down low.

I don't think we need to preface that Embiid is an injury waiting to happen. That Fultz takedown was super flukey. Embiid has had good movement this year, and seems to have gotten over the lower body injury bug. PHI should manage his time, so I doubt you'll ever get 80 reg season games out of him, but I expect you'll be seeing him in the playoffs for years to come. None of us really can tell if he will continue to get hurt. I'm sure the Philly GM would love a crystal ball. What we do know is that he can play at a very high level in the NBA, and other players/GMs have given rave reviews of his game early in his career. Embiid can be similar to Olajuwon- he's that talented.

Simmons is also unique. While I'm not sure how Lebron and Simmons would play together, I'm very intrigued by the mismatch in size/athleticism. Throw in a Klay Thompson type shooter and its game, set, match.

Yeah disgusting as in very good.

Regarding Malone:
1) Yes I am discounting college because for a player of Malone's level, it's like if I were playing a 30 minute game against 8 year olds. It's not mileage it's basically just working out. LeBron came in at 19 and hit the ground running at 40 minutes a game against the best players in the world (NBA). No rookie watching, full load.

2) I agree that LeBron is much more athletic, however, I disagree that because he is more athletic he somehow has more athleticism to lose as if it's a sort of expendable resource. It doesn't quite work that way. More often than not how it goes down is you get injured (nothing horrific.. just a sprain here, a tear there). At 34 years old, once you get injured, it's a very rapid decline regardless of your initial athleticism. The fact that his game is primarily based on athleticism means that he has so much more to lose.

I just can't believe that with all of the data we have on player decline vs age that my opinion is the contrarian view.

Erik I agree with you and have made the exact argument. Even about the Malone part. I do think that how much time and money and technology Lebron has to spend on treating his body extends his window a bit longer than it did during Malone's era, but it is still not forever. Also, Lebron's counting and shooting stats have been great this year, but watching him play a lot, his defensive has really really regressed. He can still be an amazing lockdown player on defense for spurts, but he no longer has the stamina in his mid 30's to do that and carry a dominate offensive load. I do think either his defense will continue to erode into just being flat our bad, or he will be more tired on offense and his shooting will worsen if his minutes are not reduced. 

I think he will still be very very good next year but probably will have slipped a noticable amount beyond Davis, Harden, Durant and others and just be a top 10 player. The year after that he may just be a fringe all-star. Given that Simmons will be hitting his prime in 2-3 years and fultz the same, it kind of feels like a waste to me (especially given there are fit questions).
From Lebron's side, maybe he is turning over a new leaf as he ages, but he has really hated playing with young guys his whole career (and even a younger player like irving it really rubbed the wrong way). I don't see him joining Philly resulting in a title for the 76ers over the warriors barring injuries and I think it would potentially mess up their chance to compete for a title for 5-8 years for a chance to compete for 1-2 as an underdog....

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #168 on: April 03, 2018, 12:34:27 PM »

Offline green_bballers13

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Yes, we have more data, but we also have increases in longevity with modern science. That, and Lebron is a unicorn. Unicorns don't follow statistical trends.

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #169 on: April 03, 2018, 12:41:11 PM »

Offline green_bballers13

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At some point in the near future, LeBron will take his talents to a max contract. The team that signs him to a max deal is going to regret it halfway into it. It may not be obvious to the untrained eye, but he is showing signs of slowing down. Athletic only players don't age well, and he has so many miles on the tires. He has no jumpshot or 3 pointer to fall back on, so once the motor starts to die down, he's finished.

Add to that our serious (i.e. we are the favorites to win every year) championship window is in about 3 years from now when Horford comes off the books (re-signs for Vet Min or MLE, please?) and Tatum is a top 20 player in the league, and you shouldn't concern yourself too much with LeBron. He should be doing his farewell tour by then on an inflated contract.

He's also not going to Philly. A young team and a 34 year old looking to win now are incompatible. He's going to join a sure thing like the coward we all know him to be.
I don't even know where to begin with this post.  Just so much wrong with it. 

First, James has had 5 of his last 7 season shooting over 36% from three.  While not elite, that certainly is good enough.  Those same 5 seasons, he also shot well over 40% from 10-16 feet.  Again, not elite, but again good enough.  His TS% in each of the last two seasons is 61.9% and his eFG% is pushing 60%, which is most definitely elite.  He doesn't get all of those shots solely because he is an elite athlete, he gets them because he is highly skilled and incredibly strong as well. 

Second, physically Karl Malone is probably the best comparison.  He was a similar height and similar strength.  James is obviously far more athletic than Malone ever was, but they look fairly similar physically.  Malone was never injured until his final year in the league at age 40.  At age 39 Malone played in 80 games and was still averaging over 20 a game.  He won the MVP at age 35, finished 4th at age 36, and 7th at 37.  Now obviously James isn't Malone, but the physical similarities can't be disregarded either. 

Third, the Sixers are the exact type of team a guy like James would join if his goal was to continue winning championships.  They have at least 2 franchise level talents in Embiid and Simmons (that doesn't mean they both fulfill that potential or that they stay healthy) as well as Fultz (who was the #1 pick for a reason), Saric (who has all star level talent), and Covington (solid 3 and D level starter).  They have other young NBA bench level players (McConnell, Holmes, Luwawu-Cabarrot, Korkmaz).  They have the Lakers or Kings pick in addition to every single one of their own picks.  With a simple salary dump of Bayless, they have room to offer James a max contract.  They can then use some of their assets to acquire another top level player (think the Love trade), while still keeping Embiid and Simmons.  The Sixers are a 50 win team (or right near it) without James and basically without Fultz (thus making them a far better team than the Cleveland team James joined when he went back home).  You add James to that team, they are the clear favorites in the East for at least the next couple of seasons, and it really isn't much of a debate. 

James is easy to hate and easy to dislike, so I don't know why anyone needs to just make stuff up to hate on him.

Definitely a popular opinion. Can't say I blame you. In two years from now, you'll see that I'm most likely correct. Numbers rarely lie and "father time always wins." A few points:

1) Karl Malone came into the league at 22. If comparing them, you need to compare LeBron's current season to Malone's at 36. As you can see, sure he might give you 1 or 2 more "good" years, but is Malone's production at 39 worth a max deal? Definitely not. Also, Malone had a disgusting post game. Other than athleticism, LeBron's real only spectacular offensive ability is court vision/passing. He can be a point guard at some point once the legs and back start failing. Like I said, though, it's an overpay. There are far better ACTUAL point guards than him that can be gotten for dirt cheap. He's just impressive because he's athletic AND can be a PG. Again, it all goes back to athleticism.

2) His shooting levels are not max worthy. You can't hype them enough to have a leg to stand on in this argument. He's a very average shooter. In fact, teams used to just dare him to shoot when he was actually unstoppable driving to the lane. Now that he isn't that explosive anymore and his shooting is up, they're taking the compromise and guarding him midway. He still has a long way to go, though, to be useful in his twilight years.

3) Embiid and Simmons are already franchise levels talents? Give me a break. I'm afraid to inform you that the koolaid was poison. You also had the nerve to even mention Markelle Fultz? Saric? Covington? McConnell?? Jesus Christ you sound like a 76ers fanboy or Danny Ainge when talking about Terry Rozier. While the team MAY be good (depending on Embiid's health) in say 3 or 4 years, LeBron will be long past his prime by then. This isn't a good situation for him.

I believe that he goes to a team like the Rockets or Spurs.

Disgusting? Is that like "sick" or "dope"?

Lebron is a much better athlete than Malone. Leaps and bounds better. His athleticism should last much longer than Malone's did. While Malone did play college (and you play less games in college), are we supposed to discount Malone's mileage in college?

You're trying to break Lebron down into components when analyzing his skills. This doesn't work because the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Lebron's combo of size, skill, and athleticism is unmatched in NBA history. You can nitpick his jump shot all day long, but he is the size of Malone with Magic passing. When he drives to the lane, no one can stop him. They can foul him, but no one will consistently get clean blocks down low.

I don't think we need to preface that Embiid is an injury waiting to happen. That Fultz takedown was super flukey. Embiid has had good movement this year, and seems to have gotten over the lower body injury bug. PHI should manage his time, so I doubt you'll ever get 80 reg season games out of him, but I expect you'll be seeing him in the playoffs for years to come. None of us really can tell if he will continue to get hurt. I'm sure the Philly GM would love a crystal ball. What we do know is that he can play at a very high level in the NBA, and other players/GMs have given rave reviews of his game early in his career. Embiid can be similar to Olajuwon- he's that talented.

Simmons is also unique. While I'm not sure how Lebron and Simmons would play together, I'm very intrigued by the mismatch in size/athleticism. Throw in a Klay Thompson type shooter and its game, set, match.

Yeah disgusting as in very good.

Regarding Malone:
1) Yes I am discounting college because for a player of Malone's level, it's like if I were playing a 30 minute game against 8 year olds. It's not mileage it's basically just working out. LeBron came in at 19 and hit the ground running at 40 minutes a game against the best players in the world (NBA). No rookie watching, full load.

2) I agree that LeBron is much more athletic, however, I disagree that because he is more athletic he somehow has more athleticism to lose as if it's a sort of expendable resource. It doesn't quite work that way. More often than not how it goes down is you get injured (nothing horrific.. just a sprain here, a tear there). At 34 years old, once you get injured, it's a very rapid decline regardless of your initial athleticism. The fact that his game is primarily based on athleticism means that he has so much more to lose.

I just can't believe that with all of the data we have on player decline vs age that my opinion is the contrarian view.

Erik I agree with you and have made the exact argument. Even about the Malone part. I do think that how much time and money and technology Lebron has to spend on treating his body extends his window a bit longer than it did during Malone's era, but it is still not forever. Also, Lebron's counting and shooting stats have been great this year, but watching him play a lot, his defensive has really really regressed. He can still be an amazing lockdown player on defense for spurts, but he no longer has the stamina in his mid 30's to do that and carry a dominate offensive load. I do think either his defense will continue to erode into just being flat our bad, or he will be more tired on offense and his shooting will worsen if his minutes are not reduced. 

I think he will still be very very good next year but probably will have slipped a noticable amount beyond Davis, Harden, Durant and others and just be a top 10 player. The year after that he may just be a fringe all-star. Given that Simmons will be hitting his prime in 2-3 years and fultz the same, it kind of feels like a waste to me (especially given there are fit questions).
From Lebron's side, maybe he is turning over a new leaf as he ages, but he has really hated playing with young guys his whole career (and even a younger player like irving it really rubbed the wrong way). I don't see him joining Philly resulting in a title for the 76ers over the warriors barring injuries and I think it would potentially mess up their chance to compete for a title for 5-8 years for a chance to compete for 1-2 as an underdog....

I don't see that at all. Of course, these are our opinions and there's no right answer.

I don't see a day where Lebron isn't better than the guy that is guarding him. He will of course have to adapt his play to aging, and so will his team. If I'm Lebron, I'm picking a team that has an elite big man and 1-2 elite perimeter defenders. Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart would both be good fits next to Lebron. I don't think it would be hard for Philly, LAL, LAC, SA, HOU, or even CLE to go out and acquire these guys. That combined with a dominant big man and Lebron has a longer runway.

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #170 on: April 03, 2018, 12:43:14 PM »

Offline Erik

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Yes, we have more data, but we also have increases in longevity with modern science. That, and Lebron is a unicorn. Unicorns don't follow statistical trends.

Unfortunately, the trends have continued even in this era. Kobe Bryant is my favorite comparison for the "modern science" argument because he's gotten roughly the same workload, work ethic, "special treatments," and money as LeBron. 35 just seems to be the magic number where it starts going downhill. Well, I wish him the best. I certainly wouldn't put any even money on the line in the face of an almost statistical "sure thing." I certainly wouldn't want to be the team that owns his max contract starting at 34 years old.

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #171 on: April 03, 2018, 12:45:03 PM »

Offline Moranis

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At some point in the near future, LeBron will take his talents to a max contract. The team that signs him to a max deal is going to regret it halfway into it. It may not be obvious to the untrained eye, but he is showing signs of slowing down. Athletic only players don't age well, and he has so many miles on the tires. He has no jumpshot or 3 pointer to fall back on, so once the motor starts to die down, he's finished.

Add to that our serious (i.e. we are the favorites to win every year) championship window is in about 3 years from now when Horford comes off the books (re-signs for Vet Min or MLE, please?) and Tatum is a top 20 player in the league, and you shouldn't concern yourself too much with LeBron. He should be doing his farewell tour by then on an inflated contract.

He's also not going to Philly. A young team and a 34 year old looking to win now are incompatible. He's going to join a sure thing like the coward we all know him to be.
I don't even know where to begin with this post.  Just so much wrong with it. 

First, James has had 5 of his last 7 season shooting over 36% from three.  While not elite, that certainly is good enough.  Those same 5 seasons, he also shot well over 40% from 10-16 feet.  Again, not elite, but again good enough.  His TS% in each of the last two seasons is 61.9% and his eFG% is pushing 60%, which is most definitely elite.  He doesn't get all of those shots solely because he is an elite athlete, he gets them because he is highly skilled and incredibly strong as well. 

Second, physically Karl Malone is probably the best comparison.  He was a similar height and similar strength.  James is obviously far more athletic than Malone ever was, but they look fairly similar physically.  Malone was never injured until his final year in the league at age 40.  At age 39 Malone played in 80 games and was still averaging over 20 a game.  He won the MVP at age 35, finished 4th at age 36, and 7th at 37.  Now obviously James isn't Malone, but the physical similarities can't be disregarded either. 

Third, the Sixers are the exact type of team a guy like James would join if his goal was to continue winning championships.  They have at least 2 franchise level talents in Embiid and Simmons (that doesn't mean they both fulfill that potential or that they stay healthy) as well as Fultz (who was the #1 pick for a reason), Saric (who has all star level talent), and Covington (solid 3 and D level starter).  They have other young NBA bench level players (McConnell, Holmes, Luwawu-Cabarrot, Korkmaz).  They have the Lakers or Kings pick in addition to every single one of their own picks.  With a simple salary dump of Bayless, they have room to offer James a max contract.  They can then use some of their assets to acquire another top level player (think the Love trade), while still keeping Embiid and Simmons.  The Sixers are a 50 win team (or right near it) without James and basically without Fultz (thus making them a far better team than the Cleveland team James joined when he went back home).  You add James to that team, they are the clear favorites in the East for at least the next couple of seasons, and it really isn't much of a debate. 

James is easy to hate and easy to dislike, so I don't know why anyone needs to just make stuff up to hate on him.

Definitely a popular opinion. Can't say I blame you. In two years from now, you'll see that I'm most likely correct. Numbers rarely lie and "father time always wins." A few points:

1) Karl Malone came into the league at 22. If comparing them, you need to compare LeBron's current season to Malone's at 36. As you can see, sure he might give you 1 or 2 more "good" years, but is Malone's production at 39 worth a max deal? Definitely not. Also, Malone had a disgusting post game. Other than athleticism, LeBron's real only spectacular offensive ability is court vision/passing. He can be a point guard at some point once the legs and back start failing. Like I said, though, it's an overpay. There are far better ACTUAL point guards than him that can be gotten for dirt cheap. He's just impressive because he's athletic AND can be a PG. Again, it all goes back to athleticism.

2) His shooting levels are not max worthy. You can't hype them enough to have a leg to stand on in this argument. He's a very average shooter. In fact, teams used to just dare him to shoot when he was actually unstoppable driving to the lane. Now that he isn't that explosive anymore and his shooting is up, they're taking the compromise and guarding him midway. He still has a long way to go, though, to be useful in his twilight years.

3) Embiid and Simmons are already franchise levels talents? Give me a break. I'm afraid to inform you that the koolaid was poison. You also had the nerve to even mention Markelle Fultz? Saric? Covington? McConnell?? Jesus Christ you sound like a 76ers fanboy or Danny Ainge when talking about Terry Rozier. While the team MAY be good (depending on Embiid's health) in say 3 or 4 years, LeBron will be long past his prime by then. This isn't a good situation for him.

I believe that he goes to a team like the Rockets or Spurs.

Disgusting? Is that like "sick" or "dope"?

Lebron is a much better athlete than Malone. Leaps and bounds better. His athleticism should last much longer than Malone's did. While Malone did play college (and you play less games in college), are we supposed to discount Malone's mileage in college?

You're trying to break Lebron down into components when analyzing his skills. This doesn't work because the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Lebron's combo of size, skill, and athleticism is unmatched in NBA history. You can nitpick his jump shot all day long, but he is the size of Malone with Magic passing. When he drives to the lane, no one can stop him. They can foul him, but no one will consistently get clean blocks down low.

I don't think we need to preface that Embiid is an injury waiting to happen. That Fultz takedown was super flukey. Embiid has had good movement this year, and seems to have gotten over the lower body injury bug. PHI should manage his time, so I doubt you'll ever get 80 reg season games out of him, but I expect you'll be seeing him in the playoffs for years to come. None of us really can tell if he will continue to get hurt. I'm sure the Philly GM would love a crystal ball. What we do know is that he can play at a very high level in the NBA, and other players/GMs have given rave reviews of his game early in his career. Embiid can be similar to Olajuwon- he's that talented.

Simmons is also unique. While I'm not sure how Lebron and Simmons would play together, I'm very intrigued by the mismatch in size/athleticism. Throw in a Klay Thompson type shooter and its game, set, match.

Yeah disgusting as in very good.

Regarding Malone:
1) Yes I am discounting college because for a player of Malone's level, it's like if I were playing a 30 minute game against 8 year olds. It's not mileage it's basically just working out. LeBron came in at 19 and hit the ground running at 40 minutes a game against the best players in the world (NBA). No rookie watching, full load.

2) I agree that LeBron is more athletic, however, I disagree that because he is more athletic he somehow has more athleticism to lose as if it's a sort of expendable resource. It doesn't quite work that way. More often than not how it goes down is you get injured (nothing horrific.. just a sprain here, a tear there). At 34 years old, once you get injured, it's a very rapid decline regardless of your initial athleticism. The fact that his game is primarily based on athleticism means that he has so much more to lose.

I just can't believe that with all of the data we have on player decline vs age that my opinion is the contrarian view.
Getting hurt is entirely different then just randomly falling off a cliff.  Lebron James is the best player in the world.  He isn't all of a sudden not going to be a top 20 player in this league without getting injured.  I mean Kobe went from 27 a game at age 34 to a shell of himself after he got hurt.  Kevin Garnett was a top 5 player at age 32, then he got hurt.  Malone never got hurt.  Kareem finished in the top 5 in MVP voting at ages 36, 37, and 38.  He like Malone, never got hurt.  Dirk was still putting up 18 a game at age 37, he never had a serious injury until the last two seasons.  Duncan was a steady rock avoiding serious injury and still performing.  Heck, even Shaq who was a walking injury still had 18 and 8.5 at age 36.  Jordan took time off obviously, but was still scoring over 20 a game when he was 39 and 40 years old. 

You can't predict injuries.  Sometimes players get them, sometimes they don't.  Sometimes they get them early and are never the same (see Dwight Howard) or sometimes they get them early and they go on to be the best player in the world (see Michael Jordan).  Sometimes players are always hurt (see Shaq) and sometimes they are never hurt (see Malone, Kareem, etc.).  These are the greatest players in the world, MVP level players.  You just can't know and any analysis based on the idea of a player getting hurt is just faulty. 

Without injury, a player doesn't go from the best player in the world (or top 3 to avoid that discussion) to outside of the top 20 (which is generally a reasonable place for a max contract even though there are a lot more max contracts than that) in the span of a season or two, just doesn't happen.  Now if Lebron gets injured, then sure he might not be worth his max contract, but that holds with every single player in the league. 
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Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #172 on: April 03, 2018, 12:46:33 PM »

Offline Phantom255x

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Hate to say it, but if Sixers trade for Kawhi OR sign Lebron, we're doomed.
"Tough times never last, but tough people do." - Robert H. Schuller

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #173 on: April 03, 2018, 12:49:19 PM »

Offline green_bballers13

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Yes, we have more data, but we also have increases in longevity with modern science. That, and Lebron is a unicorn. Unicorns don't follow statistical trends.

Unfortunately, the trends have continued even in this era. Kobe Bryant is my favorite comparison for the "modern science" argument because he's gotten roughly the same workload, work ethic, "special treatments," and money as LeBron. 35 just seems to be the magic number where it starts going downhill. Well, I wish him the best. I certainly wouldn't put any even money on the line in the face of an almost statistical "sure thing." I certainly wouldn't want to be the team that owns his max contract starting at 34 years old.

Apples to oranges. Kobe is a volume scorer. His value was in beating his defender to the rim and using quickness (and high-level basketball IQ) to get open to hit daggers. Similar to Jordan at the end, they became less efficient scorers.

Lebron is more of a facilitator and rebounds more. I think Lebron at 37 is as athletic as Magic at 31.

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #174 on: April 03, 2018, 12:50:59 PM »

Offline Atzar

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Why are we doomed in any scenario?  Our team is pretty good too.  Do I need to remind people of that? 

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #175 on: April 03, 2018, 12:54:46 PM »

Offline green_bballers13

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Why are we doomed in any scenario?  Our team is pretty good too.  Do I need to remind people of that?

Amen brother. The Celtics have a very bright future. The Celtics, Sixers, Houston, Golden State, and maybe the Bucks (if Giannis stays) are the future contenders. Add in CLE or wherever Lebron goes.

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #176 on: April 03, 2018, 12:57:06 PM »

Offline Erik

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At some point in the near future, LeBron will take his talents to a max contract. The team that signs him to a max deal is going to regret it halfway into it. It may not be obvious to the untrained eye, but he is showing signs of slowing down. Athletic only players don't age well, and he has so many miles on the tires. He has no jumpshot or 3 pointer to fall back on, so once the motor starts to die down, he's finished.

Add to that our serious (i.e. we are the favorites to win every year) championship window is in about 3 years from now when Horford comes off the books (re-signs for Vet Min or MLE, please?) and Tatum is a top 20 player in the league, and you shouldn't concern yourself too much with LeBron. He should be doing his farewell tour by then on an inflated contract.

He's also not going to Philly. A young team and a 34 year old looking to win now are incompatible. He's going to join a sure thing like the coward we all know him to be.
I don't even know where to begin with this post.  Just so much wrong with it. 

First, James has had 5 of his last 7 season shooting over 36% from three.  While not elite, that certainly is good enough.  Those same 5 seasons, he also shot well over 40% from 10-16 feet.  Again, not elite, but again good enough.  His TS% in each of the last two seasons is 61.9% and his eFG% is pushing 60%, which is most definitely elite.  He doesn't get all of those shots solely because he is an elite athlete, he gets them because he is highly skilled and incredibly strong as well. 

Second, physically Karl Malone is probably the best comparison.  He was a similar height and similar strength.  James is obviously far more athletic than Malone ever was, but they look fairly similar physically.  Malone was never injured until his final year in the league at age 40.  At age 39 Malone played in 80 games and was still averaging over 20 a game.  He won the MVP at age 35, finished 4th at age 36, and 7th at 37.  Now obviously James isn't Malone, but the physical similarities can't be disregarded either. 

Third, the Sixers are the exact type of team a guy like James would join if his goal was to continue winning championships.  They have at least 2 franchise level talents in Embiid and Simmons (that doesn't mean they both fulfill that potential or that they stay healthy) as well as Fultz (who was the #1 pick for a reason), Saric (who has all star level talent), and Covington (solid 3 and D level starter).  They have other young NBA bench level players (McConnell, Holmes, Luwawu-Cabarrot, Korkmaz).  They have the Lakers or Kings pick in addition to every single one of their own picks.  With a simple salary dump of Bayless, they have room to offer James a max contract.  They can then use some of their assets to acquire another top level player (think the Love trade), while still keeping Embiid and Simmons.  The Sixers are a 50 win team (or right near it) without James and basically without Fultz (thus making them a far better team than the Cleveland team James joined when he went back home).  You add James to that team, they are the clear favorites in the East for at least the next couple of seasons, and it really isn't much of a debate. 

James is easy to hate and easy to dislike, so I don't know why anyone needs to just make stuff up to hate on him.

Definitely a popular opinion. Can't say I blame you. In two years from now, you'll see that I'm most likely correct. Numbers rarely lie and "father time always wins." A few points:

1) Karl Malone came into the league at 22. If comparing them, you need to compare LeBron's current season to Malone's at 36. As you can see, sure he might give you 1 or 2 more "good" years, but is Malone's production at 39 worth a max deal? Definitely not. Also, Malone had a disgusting post game. Other than athleticism, LeBron's real only spectacular offensive ability is court vision/passing. He can be a point guard at some point once the legs and back start failing. Like I said, though, it's an overpay. There are far better ACTUAL point guards than him that can be gotten for dirt cheap. He's just impressive because he's athletic AND can be a PG. Again, it all goes back to athleticism.

2) His shooting levels are not max worthy. You can't hype them enough to have a leg to stand on in this argument. He's a very average shooter. In fact, teams used to just dare him to shoot when he was actually unstoppable driving to the lane. Now that he isn't that explosive anymore and his shooting is up, they're taking the compromise and guarding him midway. He still has a long way to go, though, to be useful in his twilight years.

3) Embiid and Simmons are already franchise levels talents? Give me a break. I'm afraid to inform you that the koolaid was poison. You also had the nerve to even mention Markelle Fultz? Saric? Covington? McConnell?? Jesus Christ you sound like a 76ers fanboy or Danny Ainge when talking about Terry Rozier. While the team MAY be good (depending on Embiid's health) in say 3 or 4 years, LeBron will be long past his prime by then. This isn't a good situation for him.

I believe that he goes to a team like the Rockets or Spurs.

Disgusting? Is that like "sick" or "dope"?

Lebron is a much better athlete than Malone. Leaps and bounds better. His athleticism should last much longer than Malone's did. While Malone did play college (and you play less games in college), are we supposed to discount Malone's mileage in college?

You're trying to break Lebron down into components when analyzing his skills. This doesn't work because the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Lebron's combo of size, skill, and athleticism is unmatched in NBA history. You can nitpick his jump shot all day long, but he is the size of Malone with Magic passing. When he drives to the lane, no one can stop him. They can foul him, but no one will consistently get clean blocks down low.

I don't think we need to preface that Embiid is an injury waiting to happen. That Fultz takedown was super flukey. Embiid has had good movement this year, and seems to have gotten over the lower body injury bug. PHI should manage his time, so I doubt you'll ever get 80 reg season games out of him, but I expect you'll be seeing him in the playoffs for years to come. None of us really can tell if he will continue to get hurt. I'm sure the Philly GM would love a crystal ball. What we do know is that he can play at a very high level in the NBA, and other players/GMs have given rave reviews of his game early in his career. Embiid can be similar to Olajuwon- he's that talented.

Simmons is also unique. While I'm not sure how Lebron and Simmons would play together, I'm very intrigued by the mismatch in size/athleticism. Throw in a Klay Thompson type shooter and its game, set, match.

Yeah disgusting as in very good.

Regarding Malone:
1) Yes I am discounting college because for a player of Malone's level, it's like if I were playing a 30 minute game against 8 year olds. It's not mileage it's basically just working out. LeBron came in at 19 and hit the ground running at 40 minutes a game against the best players in the world (NBA). No rookie watching, full load.

2) I agree that LeBron is more athletic, however, I disagree that because he is more athletic he somehow has more athleticism to lose as if it's a sort of expendable resource. It doesn't quite work that way. More often than not how it goes down is you get injured (nothing horrific.. just a sprain here, a tear there). At 34 years old, once you get injured, it's a very rapid decline regardless of your initial athleticism. The fact that his game is primarily based on athleticism means that he has so much more to lose.

I just can't believe that with all of the data we have on player decline vs age that my opinion is the contrarian view.
Getting hurt is entirely different then just randomly falling off a cliff.  Lebron James is the best player in the world.  He isn't all of a sudden not going to be a top 20 player in this league without getting injured.  I mean Kobe went from 27 a game at age 34 to a shell of himself after he got hurt.  Kevin Garnett was a top 5 player at age 32, then he got hurt.  Malone never got hurt.  Kareem finished in the top 5 in MVP voting at ages 36, 37, and 38.  He like Malone, never got hurt.  Dirk was still putting up 18 a game at age 37, he never had a serious injury until the last two seasons.  Duncan was a steady rock avoiding serious injury and still performing.  Heck, even Shaq who was a walking injury still had 18 and 8.5 at age 36.  Jordan took time off obviously, but was still scoring over 20 a game when he was 39 and 40 years old. 

You can't predict injuries.  Sometimes players get them, sometimes they don't.  Sometimes they get them early and are never the same (see Dwight Howard) or sometimes they get them early and they go on to be the best player in the world (see Michael Jordan).  Sometimes players are always hurt (see Shaq) and sometimes they are never hurt (see Malone, Kareem, etc.).  These are the greatest players in the world, MVP level players.  You just can't know and any analysis based on the idea of a player getting hurt is just faulty. 

Without injury, a player doesn't go from the best player in the world (or top 3 to avoid that discussion) to outside of the top 20 (which is generally a reasonable place for a max contract even though there are a lot more max contracts than that) in the span of a season or two, just doesn't happen.  Now if Lebron gets injured, then sure he might not be worth his max contract, but that holds with every single player in the league.

You can certainly predict "wear and tear" injuries. They're inevitable. You think all the people who retire in the NBA are completely healthy but choose to just stop playing? No. They had minor injuries due to wear and tear that led to larger problems. Their bodies ache due to injuries. The difference being is that Hayward's injury is a freak accident. If LeBron gets injured it's because he's too old to be playing basketball.

You also mentioned a lot of players in the first paragraph that had non-athletic specific abilities. Kareem had the skyhook. Dirk was a brilliant shooter. Duncan had the midrange shot. You also mentioned some fairly average stats. Sorry, but 18 and 8 is not max contract worthy. That's like Vucevic numbers. LeBron is not going to do well once his body starts aching. He doesn't have any specific talent to fall back on. When your knee is inflamed every night, you cant push off as hard anymore. You're a walking offensive foul.

I also want to comment on this "I'd take LeBron at 37 over some average player." Obviously, so would I. But not for max money!

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #177 on: April 03, 2018, 01:04:33 PM »

Offline green_bballers13

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I didn't say Lebron over an average player. I said Lebron over Magic at 31 (last year before he got sick). Magic was far better than average in that year.

Yes, Lebron will get worse. Yes, technically his contract might be overvalued based on his stats. His presence on any team will far outweigh the dip in stats. He facilitates an offense. There have been older, less athletic PGs in the league's past, but very few were as much of a mismatch as Lebron. The team will have to adjust accordingly, but I'm not worried about that team.

If Danny had the ability to sign 33 year old Lebron right now to a max, I think Kyrie is once again the guy to go.

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #178 on: April 03, 2018, 01:06:14 PM »

Offline Erik

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Yes, we have more data, but we also have increases in longevity with modern science. That, and Lebron is a unicorn. Unicorns don't follow statistical trends.

Unfortunately, the trends have continued even in this era. Kobe Bryant is my favorite comparison for the "modern science" argument because he's gotten roughly the same workload, work ethic, "special treatments," and money as LeBron. 35 just seems to be the magic number where it starts going downhill. Well, I wish him the best. I certainly wouldn't put any even money on the line in the face of an almost statistical "sure thing." I certainly wouldn't want to be the team that owns his max contract starting at 34 years old.

Apples to oranges. Kobe is a volume scorer. His value was in beating his defender to the rim and using quickness (and high-level basketball IQ) to get open to hit daggers. Similar to Jordan at the end, they became less efficient scorers.

Lebron is more of a facilitator and rebounds more. I think Lebron at 37 is as athletic as Magic at 31.

I was actually just citing the similarities in workload and "alternative science" to try to cheat age, but if you'd like to straw man me, go for it.

Re: Are We Doomed If Lebron Joins The Philadelphia 76ers Next Summer?
« Reply #179 on: April 03, 2018, 01:18:26 PM »

Offline Moranis

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At some point in the near future, LeBron will take his talents to a max contract. The team that signs him to a max deal is going to regret it halfway into it. It may not be obvious to the untrained eye, but he is showing signs of slowing down. Athletic only players don't age well, and he has so many miles on the tires. He has no jumpshot or 3 pointer to fall back on, so once the motor starts to die down, he's finished.

Add to that our serious (i.e. we are the favorites to win every year) championship window is in about 3 years from now when Horford comes off the books (re-signs for Vet Min or MLE, please?) and Tatum is a top 20 player in the league, and you shouldn't concern yourself too much with LeBron. He should be doing his farewell tour by then on an inflated contract.

He's also not going to Philly. A young team and a 34 year old looking to win now are incompatible. He's going to join a sure thing like the coward we all know him to be.
I don't even know where to begin with this post.  Just so much wrong with it. 

First, James has had 5 of his last 7 season shooting over 36% from three.  While not elite, that certainly is good enough.  Those same 5 seasons, he also shot well over 40% from 10-16 feet.  Again, not elite, but again good enough.  His TS% in each of the last two seasons is 61.9% and his eFG% is pushing 60%, which is most definitely elite.  He doesn't get all of those shots solely because he is an elite athlete, he gets them because he is highly skilled and incredibly strong as well. 

Second, physically Karl Malone is probably the best comparison.  He was a similar height and similar strength.  James is obviously far more athletic than Malone ever was, but they look fairly similar physically.  Malone was never injured until his final year in the league at age 40.  At age 39 Malone played in 80 games and was still averaging over 20 a game.  He won the MVP at age 35, finished 4th at age 36, and 7th at 37.  Now obviously James isn't Malone, but the physical similarities can't be disregarded either. 

Third, the Sixers are the exact type of team a guy like James would join if his goal was to continue winning championships.  They have at least 2 franchise level talents in Embiid and Simmons (that doesn't mean they both fulfill that potential or that they stay healthy) as well as Fultz (who was the #1 pick for a reason), Saric (who has all star level talent), and Covington (solid 3 and D level starter).  They have other young NBA bench level players (McConnell, Holmes, Luwawu-Cabarrot, Korkmaz).  They have the Lakers or Kings pick in addition to every single one of their own picks.  With a simple salary dump of Bayless, they have room to offer James a max contract.  They can then use some of their assets to acquire another top level player (think the Love trade), while still keeping Embiid and Simmons.  The Sixers are a 50 win team (or right near it) without James and basically without Fultz (thus making them a far better team than the Cleveland team James joined when he went back home).  You add James to that team, they are the clear favorites in the East for at least the next couple of seasons, and it really isn't much of a debate. 

James is easy to hate and easy to dislike, so I don't know why anyone needs to just make stuff up to hate on him.

Definitely a popular opinion. Can't say I blame you. In two years from now, you'll see that I'm most likely correct. Numbers rarely lie and "father time always wins." A few points:

1) Karl Malone came into the league at 22. If comparing them, you need to compare LeBron's current season to Malone's at 36. As you can see, sure he might give you 1 or 2 more "good" years, but is Malone's production at 39 worth a max deal? Definitely not. Also, Malone had a disgusting post game. Other than athleticism, LeBron's real only spectacular offensive ability is court vision/passing. He can be a point guard at some point once the legs and back start failing. Like I said, though, it's an overpay. There are far better ACTUAL point guards than him that can be gotten for dirt cheap. He's just impressive because he's athletic AND can be a PG. Again, it all goes back to athleticism.

2) His shooting levels are not max worthy. You can't hype them enough to have a leg to stand on in this argument. He's a very average shooter. In fact, teams used to just dare him to shoot when he was actually unstoppable driving to the lane. Now that he isn't that explosive anymore and his shooting is up, they're taking the compromise and guarding him midway. He still has a long way to go, though, to be useful in his twilight years.

3) Embiid and Simmons are already franchise levels talents? Give me a break. I'm afraid to inform you that the koolaid was poison. You also had the nerve to even mention Markelle Fultz? Saric? Covington? McConnell?? Jesus Christ you sound like a 76ers fanboy or Danny Ainge when talking about Terry Rozier. While the team MAY be good (depending on Embiid's health) in say 3 or 4 years, LeBron will be long past his prime by then. This isn't a good situation for him.

I believe that he goes to a team like the Rockets or Spurs.

Disgusting? Is that like "sick" or "dope"?

Lebron is a much better athlete than Malone. Leaps and bounds better. His athleticism should last much longer than Malone's did. While Malone did play college (and you play less games in college), are we supposed to discount Malone's mileage in college?

You're trying to break Lebron down into components when analyzing his skills. This doesn't work because the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Lebron's combo of size, skill, and athleticism is unmatched in NBA history. You can nitpick his jump shot all day long, but he is the size of Malone with Magic passing. When he drives to the lane, no one can stop him. They can foul him, but no one will consistently get clean blocks down low.

I don't think we need to preface that Embiid is an injury waiting to happen. That Fultz takedown was super flukey. Embiid has had good movement this year, and seems to have gotten over the lower body injury bug. PHI should manage his time, so I doubt you'll ever get 80 reg season games out of him, but I expect you'll be seeing him in the playoffs for years to come. None of us really can tell if he will continue to get hurt. I'm sure the Philly GM would love a crystal ball. What we do know is that he can play at a very high level in the NBA, and other players/GMs have given rave reviews of his game early in his career. Embiid can be similar to Olajuwon- he's that talented.

Simmons is also unique. While I'm not sure how Lebron and Simmons would play together, I'm very intrigued by the mismatch in size/athleticism. Throw in a Klay Thompson type shooter and its game, set, match.

Yeah disgusting as in very good.

Regarding Malone:
1) Yes I am discounting college because for a player of Malone's level, it's like if I were playing a 30 minute game against 8 year olds. It's not mileage it's basically just working out. LeBron came in at 19 and hit the ground running at 40 minutes a game against the best players in the world (NBA). No rookie watching, full load.

2) I agree that LeBron is more athletic, however, I disagree that because he is more athletic he somehow has more athleticism to lose as if it's a sort of expendable resource. It doesn't quite work that way. More often than not how it goes down is you get injured (nothing horrific.. just a sprain here, a tear there). At 34 years old, once you get injured, it's a very rapid decline regardless of your initial athleticism. The fact that his game is primarily based on athleticism means that he has so much more to lose.

I just can't believe that with all of the data we have on player decline vs age that my opinion is the contrarian view.
Getting hurt is entirely different then just randomly falling off a cliff.  Lebron James is the best player in the world.  He isn't all of a sudden not going to be a top 20 player in this league without getting injured.  I mean Kobe went from 27 a game at age 34 to a shell of himself after he got hurt.  Kevin Garnett was a top 5 player at age 32, then he got hurt.  Malone never got hurt.  Kareem finished in the top 5 in MVP voting at ages 36, 37, and 38.  He like Malone, never got hurt.  Dirk was still putting up 18 a game at age 37, he never had a serious injury until the last two seasons.  Duncan was a steady rock avoiding serious injury and still performing.  Heck, even Shaq who was a walking injury still had 18 and 8.5 at age 36.  Jordan took time off obviously, but was still scoring over 20 a game when he was 39 and 40 years old. 

You can't predict injuries.  Sometimes players get them, sometimes they don't.  Sometimes they get them early and are never the same (see Dwight Howard) or sometimes they get them early and they go on to be the best player in the world (see Michael Jordan).  Sometimes players are always hurt (see Shaq) and sometimes they are never hurt (see Malone, Kareem, etc.).  These are the greatest players in the world, MVP level players.  You just can't know and any analysis based on the idea of a player getting hurt is just faulty. 

Without injury, a player doesn't go from the best player in the world (or top 3 to avoid that discussion) to outside of the top 20 (which is generally a reasonable place for a max contract even though there are a lot more max contracts than that) in the span of a season or two, just doesn't happen.  Now if Lebron gets injured, then sure he might not be worth his max contract, but that holds with every single player in the league.

You can certainly predict "wear and tear" injuries. They're inevitable. You think all the people who retire in the NBA are completely healthy but choose to just stop playing? No. They had minor injuries due to wear and tear that led to larger problems. Their bodies ache due to injuries. The difference being is that Hayward's injury is a freak accident. If LeBron gets injured it's because he's too old to be playing basketball.

You also mentioned a lot of players in the first paragraph that had non-athletic specific abilities. Kareem had the skyhook. Dirk was a brilliant shooter. Duncan had the midrange shot. You also mentioned some fairly average stats. Sorry, but 18 and 8 is not max contract worthy. That's like Vucevic numbers. LeBron is not going to do well once his body starts aching. He doesn't have any specific talent to fall back on. When your knee is inflamed every night, you cant push off as hard anymore. You're a walking offensive foul.

I also want to comment on this "I'd take LeBron at 37 over some average player." Obviously, so would I. But not for max money!
Al Horford is averaging 12.8/7.4/4.8 he is on a max contract and he signed that contract coming off a season where he averaged 17.1/8.2/3.6.  Michael Conley signed the largest contract in NBA history coming off a season where he averaged 15.3 points and 6.1 assists.  Before signing that contract his career bests were 17.2 and 6.5 so it wasn't like that was a fluke down year.  Marc Gasol signed a max contract coming off a season of 17.4/7.8/3.8. 

Those aren't abnormal.  In fact, they are pretty typical.  It appears you have no concept of what players on max contracts actually perform like. 

And you can't predict wear and tear injuries because the reality is not everyone gets them.  Kareem played 74 games his final season at the age of 41.  He played 80 games when he was 40.  78 games when he was 39.  Malone's last season was the only time he played less than 80 games in his career.  Stockton played 82 games at the age of 40 (28 mpg).  He had 1 season in his career where he missed more than 4 games.  Jason Kidd played 76 games at the age of 39.  He missed 18 games his 2nd to last year at age 38, but from 32 to 37 never missed more than 2 games in a season.

There are countless examples of great players not getting those wear and tear injuries, and not missing much time at all. 
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip