Author Topic: Article: Smart is the NBA's Worst Shooter - Why Does He Make the Offense Better?  (Read 2595 times)

0 Members and 0 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline fairweatherfan

  • Johnny Most
  • ********************
  • Posts: 20738
  • Tommy Points: 2365
  • Be the posts you wish to see in the world.
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/marcus-smart-shooting-percentage-stats-boston-celtics-vs-golden-state-warriors/

Really nice piece breaking down how Smart is so effective for our offense despite being terrible at actually putting the ball in the hole.

Offline Mike Pemulis

  • Payton Pritchard
  • Posts: 298
  • Tommy Points: 38
That was one of the most interesting, thoughtful hoops articles I've read all season. I'm pro-Smart but this season, for the first time, despite his limitations, I've been bummed about some of his performances. Thanks for posting.
Allston, MA --> Enfield Tennis Academy

Offline CelticD

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1201
  • Tommy Points: 140
I don't think this is anything that hasn't already been said before. I believe everyone acknowledges Smart for being able to do pretty much everything except shoot, but his shooting is the one part of his game he just will not sacrifice for the sake of the offense.

But maybe that goes into the "Illusion Of Threat"? Shoot with confidence so much you actually make defenses think you're a competent shooter just going through a slump and can snap out of it at any moment?

Either way stop shooting. He contributes in so many other ways, he doesn't have to keep playing to his weakness.


Offline kozlodoev

  • NCE
  • Kevin Garnett
  • *****************
  • Posts: 17914
  • Tommy Points: 1294
So the answers seem to be:

1. He spends a lot of playing time with the starters, who are all capable of doing damage, and
2. Other teams are stupid.

I'm not sure this can be called "impact".
"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."

Offline hwangjini_1

  • Dennis Johnson
  • ******************
  • Posts: 18378
  • Tommy Points: 2764
  • bammokja
So the answers seem to be:

1. He spends a lot of playing time with the starters, who are all capable of doing damage, and
2. Other teams are stupid.

I'm not sure this can be called "impact".
yet the numbers in the article give plenty of room to argue the opposite. the team and other starters are BETTER with smart on the floor. so yes, he has an impact and that is with terrible shooting.

and yes, we can all yearn for a smart who actually makes a better number of shots.  ;D
I believe Gandhi is the only person who knew about real democracy — not democracy as the right to go and buy what you want, but democracy as the responsibility to be accountable to everyone around you. Democracy begins with freedom from hunger, freedom from unemployment, freedom from fear, and freedom from hatred.
- Vandana Shiva

Offline fairweatherfan

  • Johnny Most
  • ********************
  • Posts: 20738
  • Tommy Points: 2365
  • Be the posts you wish to see in the world.
So the answers seem to be:

1. He spends a lot of playing time with the starters, who are all capable of doing damage, and
2. Other teams are stupid.

I'm not sure this can be called "impact".

If it was that simple every bad scorer with good teammates would be in the same boat. And you wouldn't see offensive ratings going UP with him on the floor compared to more capable scorers.

It does seem like a major theme is that he wouldn't be as effective creating baskets for others if defenses didn't treat him like he could create them for himself. It'll be interesting to see what approach Kerr takes tomorrow night.

Offline kozlodoev

  • NCE
  • Kevin Garnett
  • *****************
  • Posts: 17914
  • Tommy Points: 1294
So the answers seem to be:

1. He spends a lot of playing time with the starters, who are all capable of doing damage, and
2. Other teams are stupid.

I'm not sure this can be called "impact".
yet the numbers in the article give plenty of room to argue the opposite. the team and other starters are BETTER with smart on the floor. so yes, he has an impact and that is with terrible shooting.

and yes, we can all yearn for a smart who actually makes a better number of shots;D
Or at least one that shoots less, for the love of god!  ::) ::) ::)
"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."

Offline droopdog7

  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7024
  • Tommy Points: 468
The Illusion of threat concept is something that I've definitely given some thought to even before reading this article.  I used to think about it with Rondo, who I feel would bog down the offense because he was often unwilling to shoot open shots.  That, to me, was worse and taking shots and missing more than making.  So I guess in a sense, I wanted him to be more like Smart.

Of course, that doesn't change the fact that Rondo was/is actually very good offensively except for shooting while Smart isn't really good at anything.

And on that note, I didn't notice any stats for Smart related to his play making.  Sure, they showed a few highlights where he looked like a good passer but do the numbers bear that out?  I have my doubts as I think smart is a below average play maker as well.

So where does this leave us.  Clearly one cannot deny the numbers that were presented (flawed as they may be).  I just don't think that the article was especially good at explaining the why.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2017, 12:17:05 PM by droopdog7 »

Offline CelticSince83

  • Jaylen Brown
  • Posts: 542
  • Tommy Points: 42
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/marcus-smart-shooting-percentage-stats-boston-celtics-vs-golden-state-warriors/

Really nice piece breaking down how Smart is so effective for our offense despite being terrible at actually putting the ball in the hole.

Is the real answer to "why" that he creates defensive stops and turnovers which generally translate to more offensive points per possession than ppp after made baskets? 

Offline saltlover

  • Frank Ramsey
  • ************
  • Posts: 12490
  • Tommy Points: 2619
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/marcus-smart-shooting-percentage-stats-boston-celtics-vs-golden-state-warriors/

Really nice piece breaking down how Smart is so effective for our offense despite being terrible at actually putting the ball in the hole.

Is the real answer to "why" that he creates defensive stops and turnovers which generally translate to more offensive points per possession than ppp after made baskets?

If you read the article, you’ll see the answer is “probably not”.

Offline saltlover

  • Frank Ramsey
  • ************
  • Posts: 12490
  • Tommy Points: 2619
The Illusion of threat concept is something that I've definitely given some thought to even before reading this article.  I used to think about it with Rondo, who I feel would bog down the offense because he was often unwilling to shoot open shots.  That, to me, was worse and taking shots and missing more than making.  So I guess in a sense, I wanted him to be more like Smart.

Of course, that doesn't change the fact that Rondo was/is actually very good offensively except for shooting while Smart isn't really good at anything.

And on that note, I didn't notice any stats for Smart related to his play making.  Sure, they showed a few highlights where he looked like a good passer but do the numbers bear that out?  I have my doubts as I think smart is a below average play maker as well.

So where does this leave us.  Clearly one cannot deny the numbers that were presented (flawed as they may be).  I just don't think that the article was especially good at explaining the why.

13.2% of his passes lead to an assist, which is highest on the team. (Kyrie is second at 11.3%).  Players also shoot marginally better after receiving the ball from him than they do Kyrie and Al (the top 3 on our team in terms of potential assists).  Not saying those stats are the end-all, be-all, but it seems Smart has a pretty high passing efficiency.

Of players who attempt as many passes as he does a game, he’s 4th in the league (behind Harden, Wall, and LeBron) in percentage of passes that wind up as assists.  Curry and Lowry come in at 5th and 6th.  All those other guys are pretty elite playmakers, so it’s not impossible that Marcus actually is good at creating shots for others, despite his incredible shooting limitations.

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6816
  • Tommy Points: 812
Great article. TP.

Smart actually runs a pretty good offense (for the most part). Like, in his ability to run an offense, he is a starting-quality player. Obviously, his defense is elite as well.

What has become obvious is that his confidence is at an all-time low right now. He looks uncomfortable with every shot.

I think he could be a really good player still, and that his shooting percentages could definitely rise. The probably is that I'm starting to wonder if he needs a change on environment and his own team to get to that level - kinda' like what happened with Kyle Lowry.

Offline Sophomore

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6227
  • Tommy Points: 823
The Illusion of threat concept is something that I've definitely given some thought to even before reading this article.  I used to think about it with Rondo, who I feel would bog down the offense because he was often unwilling to shoot open shots.  That, to me, was worse and taking shots and missing more than making.  So I guess in a sense, I wanted him to be more like Smart.

Of course, that doesn't change the fact that Rondo was/is actually very good offensively except for shooting while Smart isn't really good at anything.

And on that note, I didn't notice any stats for Smart related to his play making.  Sure, they showed a few highlights where he looked like a good passer but do the numbers bear that out?  I have my doubts as I think smart is a below average play maker as well.

So where does this leave us.  Clearly one cannot deny the numbers that were presented (flawed as they may be).  I just don't think that the article was especially good at explaining the why.

I definitely agree with you on the illusion of threat issue - I do see people following him and I wonder if they're going to stop. But I would say that there is good reason at least for people to track him when he heads toward the hoop. He is often capable of getting past his initial defender or getting the defender on his back, and if the help didn't collapse (as it definitely does now) he would make more shots. I do believe he's capable of hitting an uncontested layup. A lot of the good he does on offense is in the pick and roll or a pass out to the perimeter after he's collapsed the defense. That's probably going to stay with him for the long haul. Why people check him on the 3-point line is a little harder to answer. Maybe his make percentage when he's truly uncontested is at least decent.

On passing, the reality is that Marcus is Boston's 2d best point guard - and it is not close. Look at the Raptors game, when Kyrie was out. Marcus was 3-10 from the field - very bad. *But*. He also passed out 9 assists against only 2 turnovers, and if you remember the game, a number of those assists were down the stretch in the 4th. Remember the beautiful lob pass he threw to Horford (after baiting Horford's defender), which turned into an uncontested dunk. For someone who shoots so badly, he has an excellent feel for the timing and spacing of the offensive game. And, critically, he didn't rush or panic in crunch time. I have a much different - much worse - feeling when Terry Rozier is directing the offense. That was a good game for him, but he wasn't playing out of his mind; he really does a nice job working off picks and handoffs.

I think that helps explain why he isn't a disaster on offense. But as the article explains, teams that have a chance to strategize for him in the playoffs might make him less effective. Cue the sentence everyone has been using: if he doesn't learn to shoot or finish, he's a problem, even with his defense.

Net, I still like him, but I can't see paying 15-17 million. I'm not even sure about 10. He's a great defender. But would an average to slightly good defender who's also an average to slightly good point guard really be a big falloff? He's a great 6th man, but it's more important to keep the Jaylens, Jaysons, and Kyries and the luxury tax is a killer.


Offline Csfan1984

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8902
  • Tommy Points: 290
One thing I noticed that I don't really see talked about is the way his defense when he shuts down a guy on a play makes that player act after.

On many occasions I see the player do two things. One is try again to score on Smart right away ignoring the team offense. Two he tries to shut down Smart on the other side gambling or over playing him allowing Smart some easy plays. A player should always play in the system and should probably not even bother guarding Smart.

Just another way his defense changes things.

Offline DooVoo

  • Sam Hauser
  • Posts: 162
  • Tommy Points: 32
Spacing. Watch Cleveland and watch Boston. Stevens is an expert at spacing and Smart thrives in that setting. So did IT. Cleveland's offense is like watching a car wreck with Lebron trying to save everyone.

The article was very good at explaining how Smart is effective in Brad's offense. Some people just can't read.