Author Topic: Some points that might make you feel better about our future with Kyrie  (Read 3241 times)

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Offline crimson_stallion

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Hi all,

I was just running through Kyrie's history, and there are a few interesting points I came across that makes me very hopeful for his future here.  I hope the points below help to give other's hope too.


1. Parralels with Steph Curry
The biggest criticism right now is that Kyrie is a one dimensional player - he is really just a scorer/shooter and offers little else.

But then again you could argue the Steph Curry was a pretty one dimensional player when he first had his breakout year as well.  Leading up to the 12/13 season he had career highs of 18.6 points, 5.9 assists and 4.5 rebounds and at the time was considered to be a pretty mediocre defensive player.  He was largely seen as a guard who really didn't offer much beyond scoring.

Then when he turned 24 Curry's scoring jumped from 14.7 PPG to 22.9 PPG, his assists jumped from 5.3 APG to 6.9 APG, and his defence improved significantly...and suddenly some people started recognising him as a guy who had potential to become someone pretty special. 

Then about 3 years later, then at the age of 27, he eventually exploded out of nowhere to average 30 PPG, win the league MVP, and carry his team to an NBA championship.   

Ironically, Kyrie was also 24 last season when his scoring jumped up dramatically from his usual 19.6 PPG to 25.2 PPG, his assists jumped from 4.7 APG to 5.9 APG, and he recorded the lowest turnover rate (10.3%) of his career.  So we are seeing similar jumps in scoring and playmaking from Kyrie at 24 year old as we did from Steph when he hit 24.  And while his defence has yet to show promise, we should also note that he is playing for a poor defensive team that rarely puts emphasis on that end of the court.  While the Warriors from memory were always a strong defensive team, and really exploded once their offense came to form.

If anything Kyrie's leap is even more impressive because Curry has been the #1 option in Golden State since that first breakout year, while Kyrie has been a #2 option behind Lebron (while also sharing the ball with a prime Kevin Love) since the 14/15 season, when he was 22 year old. And that brings me to my second point...


2. Excelling behind Lebron
If there is one pattern we have seen from every star who's joined one of Lebron's teams, it's that their offensive production always drops off a cliff as soon as they come on-board with the ball dominant LBJ. 

Dwyane Wade:
Before Lebron (7 seasons) - 25.4 PPG
During Lebron (4 seasons) - 22.3 PPG

Chris Bosh:
Before Lebron (7 seasons) - 20.2 PPG
During Lebron (4 seasons) - 17.3 PPG

Kevin Love:
Before Lebron (6 seasons) - 19.2 PPG
During Lebron (3 seasons) - 17.0 PPG

We can see here that every time a player goes from being a #1 option on their own mediocre team, to joining Lebron on a contender, their individual scoring tends to drop by 2-3 PPG due to the fact that Lebron is the clear #1 and everything goes through him. 

Eveyrbody except one guy...

Kyrie Irving:
Before Lebron (3 seasons) - 20.7 PPG
During Lebron (3 seasons) - 22.4 PPG

Not only has Kyrie's scoring NOT reduced by the standard 2-3 PPG when Lebron and Kevin Love came to town - it actually INCREASED by 2-3 PPG instead.

What this tells me is that if you read between the lines, Kyrie has been showing a level of improvement that isn't clearly reflected in the stats.  While his actually scoring numbers had not jumped at all until this season, recent patterns would suggest that if Kyrie DIDN'T improve as a player, we should have seen a 2-3 PPG drop off since Lebron came onboard.  The fact that his scoring has increased by 2-3 PPG instead indicates that h's improved dramatically over that stretch - you could argue that he's essentially a 4-6 PPG better scorer then he was before Lebron came to Cleveland...it's just not showing in the stats because that the usually 2-3 PPG "Lebron teammate drop off" is hiding that. 

While I didn't run the numbers, I would imagine that Lebron's teammates have probably seen a similar drop off in assist numbers since joining Lebron, since Lebron is always the point-forward on every team he plays on and tends to dominate the ball and make all of the plays.  I'm pretty sure both Kevin Love (from ~5 APG to ~3 APG) and D-Wade (from ~7 APG to ~5 APG) saw significant drops in their assist numbers after joining with Lebron.


3. Predicting the future
So with all that taken in to account, lets take a look at Kyrie's current stat line - 25.2 Points, 3.2 rebounds, 5.8 assists.  Looking at past history of the "Lebron team mate effect" I would expect Kyrie's scoring to increase by 2-3 PPG and his assists to increase by around 2 APG.  His rebounding also has a high chance of increasing slightly, since he's going from a team with Lebron/Love/Thompson to a Celtics team that has zero rebounders. 

If this holds true, it wouldn't be out of the question for Kyrie to come out next season putting up numbers in the 28 / 7.5 / 4 range.  Now by no means is this the most scientific prediction, but I think I don't think it's out of this world either - and if Kyrie did put up those numbers next year, this would put him in some pretty exclusive company right up there in the Steph Curry realm, and well within the MVP discussion. 





« Last Edit: September 05, 2017, 12:50:30 AM by crimson_stallion »

Re: Some points that might make you feel better about our future with Kyrie
« Reply #1 on: September 05, 2017, 12:35:52 AM »

Offline Ogaju

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TP... for a nice write up.

Re: Some points that might make you feel better about our future with Kyrie
« Reply #2 on: September 05, 2017, 07:25:29 AM »

Offline Greyman

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I second the TP. Nice write and not just a positive spin. So much of the negativity about this deal has been nothing more than spin.

Re: Some points that might make you feel better about our future with Kyrie
« Reply #3 on: September 05, 2017, 08:00:35 AM »

Offline pearljammer10

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I'll throw a TP your way as well, good stuff.

I still don't understand how people think this was a bad trade.

Re: Some points that might make you feel better about our future with Kyrie
« Reply #4 on: September 05, 2017, 08:08:55 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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I do not need the reassurance but a good post none the less.

Re: Some points that might make you feel better about our future with Kyrie
« Reply #5 on: September 05, 2017, 09:30:22 AM »

Offline smokeablount

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Good analysis that is also, like me, optimistic about the acquisition. That's a TP.
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Re: Some points that might make you feel better about our future with Kyrie
« Reply #6 on: September 05, 2017, 11:16:10 AM »

Offline johnnygreen

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1. Parralels with Steph Curry
If I remember correctly, Mark Jackson was preaching defense when he was their head coach, but he couldn't get them over the hump. When Steve Kerr arrived, he created an offense that fit the talent on the team, while maintaining the foundation on defense that Jackson left behind. For Irving, Brad Stevens will be that head coach that teaches him the defensive concepts and forces Irving to take ownership on both ends.

2. Excelling behind Lebron
I understand the point here, but also think it's an unfair comparison. Wade, Bosh, and Love were well established stars when they teamed up with LeBron. Their focus shifted from being the teams primary scorer, to just doing anything to win. For Irving, he was trying to win with LeBron, but at the same time was still trying to establish himself as a premier player in the league. So it was only natural for Irving to see an increase in scoring, especially at such a young age. Unlike Wade, Bosh, and Love, Irving was the only other #1 drafted player, so he had more to prove in justifying being picked #1 overall.

3. Predicting the future
I wholeheartedly agree on Irving's future with the Celtics, especially playing under Brad Stevens.

TP for the post.

Re: Some points that might make you feel better about our future with Kyrie
« Reply #7 on: September 05, 2017, 12:05:19 PM »

Offline lbgreen33

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Great post, I am excited for the season to start! TP.

Re: Some points that might make you feel better about our future with Kyrie
« Reply #8 on: September 05, 2017, 12:19:08 PM »

Offline playdream

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Nice writing
In Danny/Steven we believe!

Re: Some points that might make you feel better about our future with Kyrie
« Reply #9 on: September 05, 2017, 12:32:42 PM »

Offline The One

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Nice post...TP!

Very much looking forward to the Kyrie era.




Re: Some points that might make you feel better about our future with Kyrie
« Reply #10 on: September 05, 2017, 12:41:54 PM »

Offline Fireworks_Boom!

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TP for a well thought out perspective.

I do think your suggested numbers are too high for next years stats but I think one could argue he will improve or stay the same. Which if simply stays the same, sounds good to me. We just another 20+ppg scorer in Hayward too.

Re: Some points that might make you feel better about our future with Kyrie
« Reply #11 on: September 05, 2017, 12:46:16 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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Both Danny AND CBS ..have had a man crush on Irving,  especically Stevens . 

Stevens brain is going 1000 miles a sec.  ... With Hayward , Irving and Tatum to train and mix into a formula ......hey coach here are three new Ferrari s .....have fun.

Re: Some points that might make you feel better about our future with Kyrie
« Reply #12 on: September 05, 2017, 01:07:54 PM »

Offline bopna

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People tend to forget that Kyrie's growth was stunted slightly by the arrival of Lebrick. Yes he still improved but if Lebron didn't arrived Kyrie just played with Higgins then I believe Kkyrie would have been ave 27 by now albeit though on a non or fringe playoff team.

My ptediction is this...Kyrie IS an alpha 1b in Cleveland and he is still scratching the surface of what he can be.
Then couple that with Hayward the Alpha 1 of the Utah Jazz in the last 3 seasons who is just about to enter his prime years.
Add the most most instrumental defensive player of Atlanta just 3 seasons ago and who is still in his prime but would definitely take a back seat to Kyrie and GH this season but still a very good overall 2 way player in Al Horford.
Then this season will be something really special for this bunch. Forget the nega and naysayers who call themselves expert out there but in my book if you combine 2 alphas and are able to mix them well with thriving role players..that is always been the keys to a successful Franchise...this Celtic team will be sick this year. Only injuries will be their deterrent.

Re: Some points that might make you feel better about our future with Kyrie
« Reply #13 on: September 05, 2017, 01:50:04 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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The per-game numbers are in large part affected by USG.   Kyrie's USG% has remained fairly constant before/after Lebron.   That was not true for Wade, Bosh & Love, all of whom saw their USG drop.

Irving took almost the same exact FGA per game / per possession as Thomas did last year.  His USG was only slightly less than Thomas.   Thomas scored more points mainly by scoring more efficiently.

Do we anticipate that Kyrie will take _more_ shots in our offense than he did in CLE?

If not, then do we anticipate Kyrie will see a dramatic increase in scoring efficiency (TS%)?

Irving did shoot a notable increase in scoring efficiency after Lebron & Love arrived.   Do we think that he will see another bump upward due to playing next to Gordon Hayward & Al Horford?
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Re: Some points that might make you feel better about our future with Kyrie
« Reply #14 on: September 05, 2017, 02:01:20 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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The per-game numbers are in large part affected by USG.   Kyrie's USG% has remained fairly constant before/after Lebron.   That was not true for Wade, Bosh & Love, all of whom saw their USG drop.

Irving took almost the same exact FGA per game / per possession as Thomas did last year.  His USG was only slightly less than Thomas.   Thomas scored more points mainly by scoring more efficiently.

Do we anticipate that Kyrie will take _more_ shots in our offense than he did in CLE?

If not, then do we anticipate Kyrie will see a dramatic increase in scoring efficiency (TS%)?

Irving did shoot a notable increase in scoring efficiency after Lebron & Love arrived.   Do we think that he will see another bump upward due to playing next to Gordon Hayward & Al Horford?

I think these are good points. And, we have added Hayward, so expecting that Kyrie would simply have IT's old role (or shoot more) doesn't seem realistic.

For my part, I'd rather see similar or slightly lower scoring numbers, with greater efficiency. We have other good passers, so that seems possible as long as Kyrie is willing to fit in.

I suspect we will learn a lot in the first couple of months. Will he adapt his game to the Stevens style? Or will we get Russell Westbrook Revenge Tour 2.0?