Right now, I think we solidly win this trade given IT's injury being more of a concern than we thought.
We'll have to wait until next summer with the draft and playoffs before making a final grade.
IF it is true and ends up that Thomas' hip is a bigger impairment to his career than we thought, then we probably won this deal.
The thing that concerns me is that, if that assumption is true, then why would CLE settle for just a 2020 second-rounder as the mitigation for that concern?
If Isaiah is now worthless, that means the Cavs basically got just BKN18, Jae & Zizic for Kyrie Irving. That's not a good return for a 25-year old all-star. And it would mean punting on this season and Lebron James completely. Because they aren't going to be contending if a healthy Thomas isn't part of the mix and a 2020 2nd rounder isn't going to make IT any healthier.
I suspect that, no, the 'concerns over IT's hip' thing was, in the end, nothing more than a ploy by CLE to milk an extra asset out of the deal. The finalized the deal because they _are_ ok with where Thomas is at and believe he likely will be back at some point this season and able to contribute to a playoff push.
Now, even if he is, that doesn't mean we won't still have won the trade. It will depend on just how effective he is when he comes back. And long term, it will depend on what the BKN18 pick and Zizic develop into (as well as whether they re-sign Thomas.
We probably won't really know who "won" this trade for quite a while. The extreme possibilities on both ends are pretty far apart.
Best case for "winning the trade": Irving develops into a player who can put up 2 or 3 All-NBA seasons like Isaiah just did, while Thomas ends up never able to recover, tragically ending his career too soon. The Nets squeeze into the 8th seed of the playoffs. Jae gets in a physical fight with a CLE fan and ends up in jail and Zizic decides to ask for a buyout and goes back to Europe.
Worst case for "losing the trade": Irving just doesn't work out as a Celtic for whatever reason. Thomas recovers fully and posts a huge late-season push that helps the Cavs win the title. Jae contributes steadily as a 6th man 3-and-D that helps give Lebron needed help on D. Lebron agrees to stay on condition that Gilbert fork over the massive tax bill to sign IT4 long term, which he does. Thomas goes on to produce at levels similar to what he's done the last couple of years, tapering off gracefully to the end of his next contract. Zizic develops into a solid Steven Adams type big man. The BKN18 pick turns into Bagley who turns into the next great transcendent star. The 2020 pick turns into the next great 2nd round overlooked star.
Reality will obviously be somewhere in the middle.