Chances of getting the lakers pick?

[chilidawg]

The odds are 70-80% if they are a bottom 4 team.  45% at #5, and they drop off sharply after that.  50-50 seems like a good overall guess.

[Sophomore]

I'm not sure I can name 5 teams worse?

These are my worst teams in no particular order at least by my measure
Nets - improved
Hawks - significant decline
Pacers - Signficant decline
Magic - about same as last year
Lakers - Slightly improved

4 of those teams play in the east, so they'll get wins by default. I just don't see the Lakers keeping pace with the rest of the West. I also see the other West lottery teams improving this year, Suns, Kings, Pelicans, Nuggets.
You always have to take into account under achieving teams that tank on purpose AKA rest starters.. Which LA has no incentive to do.
I think 50/50 is accurate.

Agree that there aren't too many teams worse than the Lakers of last year. But we have to factor in that the Lakers pulled a legendary tank job last year; they pulled the mediocre players they had, who gave them some chance to win, and played terrible players who gave them no chance. That ends this year. Even without new players, we should count on them to win more game. And they have some new, better players to throw into the mix. I'll be very surprised if  they make the playoffs, but I don't think we'll get the pick unless they win (lose) the lottery by having their number come up 2d or 3d. 15%

Honestly, I think Danny would prefer to get the Kings pick one more year out, but if the Lakers' pick was 2-5, it would be too good to pass up.

They really don't have better players. They lost Young and Lou Williams, their two best offensive players. Unless Ball makes them incredible offensively to offset what will be horrific defense, they will be terrible again..

Brook Lopez is better than anybody they had last year. Kentavious is better than Young, and anyway they benched Swaggy to help lose games.

http://deadspin.com/the-lakers-blatant-tanking-is-a-marvel-to-behold-1793279603

Last year's Lakers, if they were managed with the goal of winning games, probably would have won 5-8 more games and landed at the 6th-9th worst record in the league. This year they should be better.

[GreenShooter]

I think they'll be in the 6-10 range, depending on injuries and serious tank jobs by some EC teams (Atl, Indy, Detroit, Orlando and some others could come up)

[mef730]

Honestly, I think Danny would prefer to get the Kings pick one more year out, but if the Lakers' pick was 2-5, it would be too good to pass up.

I'm not so sure. Sac has a bunch of young players with the potential to be good. Two years from now, they will be a better team than the Lakers will be this year.

Mike

[Atzar]

Depends on their young guys and their health.  Nobody on that roster can play defense.  But if Ball is legit and Ingram has improved, then they may be able to win some shootouts.  They have a good collection of offensive talent.  Spacing might be an issue. 

Lopez, KCP, and Randle will all be playing for new contracts. 

I like the fact that they'll be getting dropkicked by all of these strong West teams, and I like the fact that all of these terrible East teams will play a lot of games against other terrible East teams.  Somebody has to win every game... as long as Brooklyn doesn't get too many of them, I'm good with that. 

40%.  Ish.  They have some nice talent, but a lot of variability due to youth.  Could rise if Ball flops, Ingram stagnates and/or Lopez gets hurt or mails it in.  But right now, I think it's more likely that the pick rolls over to 2017.

[GreenShooter]

LAL are rumored to be interested in Rondo. Surely he will help if Ball is getting schooled by the WestConf point guards, which is likely. Ball is not a good defender right now. He's better at help defense.

[Big333223]

The odds of getting the pick are so complicated to figure. Even if they improve and wind up being the 10th wort team in the league they could potentially get a top 3 pick still. And if they wind up with a bottom 3 record, we could still lose it if it's #1.

But I do feel real confident that the Lakers are a bottom 6 team, at least, and reasonably confiden that that will turn into a pick 2-5.

Darn shame about that #1 protection, though.

[CelticsElite]

The odds of getting the pick are so complicated to figure. Even if they improve and wind up being the 10th wort team in the league they could potentially get a top 3 pick still. And if they wind up with a bottom 3 record, we could still lose it if it's #1.

But I do feel real confident that the Lakers are a bottom 6 team, at least, and reasonably confiden that that will turn into a pick 2-5.

Darn shame about that #1 protection, though.

we all know Brooklyn getting that #1 pick anyways lol

[jambr380]

They had a decent start last year going 10-10 in their first 20 games. They then proceeded to go 16-46 in their final 62 games. They also inexplicably won 5 of their final 6 games of the season.

Let's just hope they get off to a slower start this year. They seemed to have added some talent in KCP and Lopez, but also lost Young, Williams, Russell, and Mozgov. The KCP signing stings a bit, but he should be their only player capable of playing any defense.

It would be relieving for the pick to convey this year because I have no idea what is going to happen with Sac next year (although I don't imagine Randolph or Carter will be factors then).

[NorCalJack]

Well I hope that Rondo does end up a Laker.  Rondo has not improved a team since he left the Celtics. 

He usually gets cross ways with his coach and ends up on the bench sometime during the season.

[saltlover]

They had a decent start last year going 10-10 in their first 20 games. They then proceeded to go 16-46 in their final 62 games. They also inexplicably won 5 of their final 6 games of the season.

Let's just hope they get off to a slower start this year. They seemed to have added some talent in KCP and Lopez, but also lost Young, Williams, Russell, and Mozgov. The KCP signing stings a bit, but he should be their only player capable of playing any defense.

It would be relieving for the pick to convey this year because I have no idea what is going to happen with Sac next year (although I don't imagine Randolph or Carter will be factors then).

That start was definitely a mirage, tho.  They were outscored by about 3 points per game during that stretch, which is more the mark of a team that wins 40% of their games than 50%.  They definitely tanked a lot at the end of the season, but they were probably due for a course correction just based on chance alone if they didn't try.

[dwlefty13]

They had a decent start last year going 10-10 in their first 20 games. They then proceeded to go 16-46 in their final 62 games. They also inexplicably won 5 of their final 6 games of the season.

Let's just hope they get off to a slower start this year. They seemed to have added some talent in KCP and Lopez, but also lost Young, Williams, Russell, and Mozgov. The KCP signing stings a bit, but he should be their only player capable of playing any defense.

It would be relieving for the pick to convey this year because I have no idea what is going to happen with Sac next year (although I don't imagine Randolph or Carter will be factors then).

In the Western Conference, where they will play the likes of the Warriors, Spurs, Rockets, OKC, and others 3-4 times a year, I would say max wins they get is 27, and that is because they get some easier Eastern Conference teams to play twice throughout the season. Doubt they finish anywhere above a bottom 5 record in the league.

[jbpats]

Well I hope that Rondo does end up a Laker.  Rondo has not improved a team since he left the Celtics. 

He usually gets cross ways with his coach and ends up on the bench sometime during the season.

But "The Celtics would have never beat the Bulls this year if Rondo didn't get injured"

[JHTruth]

I'm not sure I can name 5 teams worse?

These are my worst teams in no particular order at least by my measure
Nets - improved
Hawks - significant decline
Pacers - Signficant decline
Magic - about same as last year
Lakers - Slightly improved

4 of those teams play in the east, so they'll get wins by default. I just don't see the Lakers keeping pace with the rest of the West. I also see the other West lottery teams improving this year, Suns, Kings, Pelicans, Nuggets.
You always have to take into account under achieving teams that tank on purpose AKA rest starters.. Which LA has no incentive to do.
I think 50/50 is accurate.

Agree that there aren't too many teams worse than the Lakers of last year. But we have to factor in that the Lakers pulled a legendary tank job last year; they pulled the mediocre players they had, who gave them some chance to win, and played terrible players who gave them no chance. That ends this year. Even without new players, we should count on them to win more game. And they have some new, better players to throw into the mix. I'll be very surprised if  they make the playoffs, but I don't think we'll get the pick unless they win (lose) the lottery by having their number come up 2d or 3d. 15%

Honestly, I think Danny would prefer to get the Kings pick one more year out, but if the Lakers' pick was 2-5, it would be too good to pass up.

They really don't have better players. They lost Young and Lou Williams, their two best offensive players. Unless Ball makes them incredible offensively to offset what will be horrific defense, they will be terrible again..

Brook Lopez is better than anybody they had last year. Kentavious is better than Young, and anyway they benched Swaggy to help lose games.

http://deadspin.com/the-lakers-blatant-tanking-is-a-marvel-to-behold-1793279603

Last year's Lakers, if they were managed with the goal of winning games, probably would have won 5-8 more games and landed at the 6th-9th worst record in the league. This year they should be better.

The team is just as bad defensively as ever, adding Ball and Lopez, two terrible defenders, and KCP a perfectly average one. Arguably they got worse offensively as well.

2016-17 TS%

Lou Williams.....................60.9%
Nick Young.......................58.8%
Brook Lopez.....................57.8%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope...51.9%
D'Angelo Russell................51.8%

Lou & Young were more efficient than either Lopez or KCP, whose TS% is nearly identical to Russell's, whose AST% was more than twice as high. Plus add in Ball's bricking from 3 and you have the recipe for teams just leaving Ball wide open, cutting off all his passing lanes, and letting the trainwreck unfold.

They will be absolutely atrocious, may compete hard for worst record in the league..

[Surferdad]

You have figure in that they play in the West so will play more games against better teams.  So even if you estimate they are the 8th worst team overall, they could end up with 5th worst record because of that.