We know that Lakers are assured good luck in the lottery. With the exception of the 2014 draft, LAL has been the only team in the NBA (since the Lakers tank began) to either move up or remain equal based on their pre-lottery position. Lakers have lucked into the #2 pick the last three years in a row. Maybe the lottery gods will see this pick as a "Lakers" pick rather than an automatically conveyed pick. What do the gods know about trades and such. Lottery gods may give LAL four straight years at #2.
Idk.. should we hope LAL finishes 3rd worst so that there's an even lower chance it's #1
Dude, I thought about this the other day! I think 3rd worst would statistically be the most likely spot for the pick to convey and also not end up #1. Even in the unlikely event that TWO teams jump in to the top 3, we would bump down to the 5-slot.
At 3, you have a lower percentage than 1&2 of not getting #1 either. Plus they draw for #1 first, so once that team is decided, we would be locked in somewhere 2-5 no matter what.
From what some have posted here, the odds of having pick #2-5 with the 2nd AND 3rd worst records is 80%.
But then obviously 2nd worst record means about a 19% chance at pick #1, and 3rd worst means about 13% chance at #1.
So, it's clear, the best spot for the pick would be the second spot. Because it's not JUST about the pick conveying. In addition to getting the pick, the higher the better. So, 2nd slot would give the best shot at the 2nd overall pick, etc..
As for me, I'm rooting for the Lakers to have the absolute worst record possible. I'd like there to be a cushion to allow them to win some games and "fall" to second. The bottom 10 slots are too bunched up. A 3 game winning streak (which I hope is not coming now since they have 3 straight winnable games as home) would probably move them into 8th. That's too close for comfort. Lose every game possible Lakers!