The Lakers do play a lot of bad teams in January. Half of their games are against bottom
10. It is their easiest stretch, along with 10
games in Feb, IMO, for the rest of the season. I think with their injuries and inconsistent play, a .500 projection for January is very generous. 7-8 wins, would put them at 18-19 by the end of January. Another .500 stretch in Feb would put them at 23-24 wins.
Then "Beware the ides of March" comes upon LA, where the time comes to settle their debts. Where every win starts to really matter for playoff contending teams. LA has only 4 games against the current bottom ten in that long month. I think they would be lucky to get 4-6 wins in that time. That would put them in the 27-30 win range.
Seven games in April. Only two against the bad teams. Another 2-3 wins and they are in the 29-33 win range. They would finish 9th worst with 33 wins based on the high end of the projection, and tied for 5th worst with 29 wins, or the low-end of that projection.
Again this is a generous win % to give them. I would say 29-30 is a more realistic high end, and 25-27 as a low end, which puts them right in the sweet spot for the pick to convey.