The love for young players, explain it to me?

[mmmmm]

I'm a fan of the San Antonio model:

1. Build a team capable of winning 50+ games each year, based on a foundation of veterans.

2. Add the #1 pick.

3. Stir.   As the veterans age off, replace them with new young players.

As you now are going to always be a winning team (with low draft picks), look for the wildest biggest reward vs risk players late in the draft.  They have no chance of breaking the roster if they aren't way better than their draft slot anyway.   Supplement with veterans who want to join a winning program for a chance at a ring.

I believe this is the model Danny has followed, except more so, because the veterans that got this team to 50+ are not as old and we are adding a lot more than just one #1 pick because we'll have multiple top 10 draft picks added to the mix in the space of a few years.

[scientific_thinker]

Shaq was definitely the man on that Lakers team though.

I agree, I think Shaq got all of the finals MVPs but I don't think there are very far apart.

[GreenWarrior]

with this team you better love the young players or get used to loving them.

there is no mix of players out there that are actually available and conceivably attainable that puts us over golden state or Cleveland in the next 3-4 yr's.

and if you believe otherwise you're lying to yourself. trust me, I've told everyone how the last few seasons were going to end for this team and I have yet to be wrong.

so getting behind the young players apparently is something we're going to have to do.

[tazzmaniac]

I'm a fan of the San Antonio model:

1. Build a team capable of winning 50+ games each year, based on a foundation of veterans.

2. Add the #1 pick.

3. Stir.   As the veterans age off, replace them with new young players.

As you now are going to always be a winning team (with low draft picks), look for the wildest biggest reward vs risk players late in the draft.  They have no chance of breaking the roster if they aren't way better than their draft slot anyway.   Supplement with veterans who want to join a winning program for a chance at a ring.

I believe this is the model Danny has followed, except more so, because the veterans that got this team to 50+ are not as old and we are adding a lot more than just one #1 pick because we'll have multiple top 10 draft picks added to the mix in the space of a few years.

We don't have an all time great to carry the team for nearly two decades.  Maybe Fultz or the 2018 pick gets us that transcendent player to build around. 

[mmmmm]

I'm a fan of the San Antonio model:

1. Build a team capable of winning 50+ games each year, based on a foundation of veterans.

2. Add the #1 pick.

3. Stir.   As the veterans age off, replace them with new young players.

As you now are going to always be a winning team (with low draft picks), look for the wildest biggest reward vs risk players late in the draft.  They have no chance of breaking the roster if they aren't way better than their draft slot anyway.   Supplement with veterans who want to join a winning program for a chance at a ring.

I believe this is the model Danny has followed, except more so, because the veterans that got this team to 50+ are not as old and we are adding a lot more than just one #1 pick because we'll have multiple top 10 draft picks added to the mix in the space of a few years.

We don't have an all time great to carry the team for nearly two decades.  Maybe Fultz or the 2018 pick gets us that transcendent player to build around.

Tim Duncan wasn't an all-time great ... until he became an all-time great.

I'm not saying Markelle Fultz is destined to be that.  But he might.   And even if not, the model is still a sound strategy.

Especially since it isn't just Fultz.   We have multiple top of the draft talents that have or will be added to this already-strong roster.

[keevsnick]

The reason people love the draft picks is that drafting great players is how you win championships. Seriously, take a look at the list of NBA champions this millennia. Lakers had Kobe, Spurs had Duncan, Heat had Wade, Cavs had Lebron, Heat had Wade again, Celtics had Peirce, Mavs had Dirk. Virtually every NBA champion has had at least one truly elite level player drafted by that organization on the team. Drafting a player like that has several advantages over acquiring say a 27 yo old veteran. 1) Those veterans are very rarely available, and for what you give up via trade it makes it hard to build around them. 2) They get LARGE contracts that ruin financial flexibility. 3) They are older and the window you have to win is shorter.

The bottom line is that when you say that its unlikely a young player will reach that superstar level you are right. But just the chance that they COULD is immensely valuable, because if they do you immediately become one of the few NBA teams capable of building a champion.

In our specific case the attraction is that getting Paul George doesn't make us a championship team, adding George and Hayward MIGHT, but it not financially sustainable. The freak accidents of the Cavs getting the #1 pick 3 out of 4 years and the huge cap spike allowing Durant to sigh with GS have created two super teams, which the new CBA makes hard to do. In other words people like the youth because even if it doesn't give the Celtics the best chance to win next year, it gives them a MUCH better chance to win in 3,4,5 years.

[tenn_smoothie]

The reason people love the draft picks is that drafting great players is how you win championships. Seriously, take a look at the list of NBA champions this millennia. Lakers had Kobe, Spurs had Duncan, Heat had Wade, Cavs had Lebron, Heat had Wade again, Celtics had Peirce, Mavs had Dirk. Virtually every NBA champion has had at least one truly elite level player drafted by that organization on the team. Drafting a player like that has several advantages over acquiring say a 27 yo old veteran. 1) Those veterans are very rarely available, and for what you give up via trade it makes it hard to build around them. 2) They get LARGE contracts that ruin financial flexibility. 3) They are older and the window you have to win is shorter.

The bottom line is that when you say that its unlikely a young player will reach that superstar level you are right. But just the chance that they COULD is immensely valuable, because if they do you immediately become one of the few NBA teams capable of building a champion.

In our specific case the attraction is that getting Paul George doesn't make us a championship team, adding George and Hayward MIGHT, but it not financially sustainable. The freak accidents of the Cavs getting the #1 pick 3 out of 4 years and the huge cap spike allowing Durant to sigh with GS have created two super teams, which the new CBA makes hard to do. In other words people like the youth because even if it doesn't give the Celtics the best chance to win next year, it gives them a MUCH better chance to win in 3,4,5 years.

Beautiful Explanation of all the Advantages.

Plus, the Celtics continue to have 1st round picks beyond this years #1.

2018 - We again have Brooklyn's #1, which is likely to at least be a lottery pick in a draft with more size than this year.

2019 - We have three first round picks.

Often it is the mid-first rounders that turn into All-Stars.

Golden State and Cleveland were built amid freak circumstances and they signed two shameless MVP-level ring chasers. Let's stay patient. All our YOUNG draft picks, along with a very solid core already here, with a few select additions will have us back in title contention soon enough - and this time, we will stay there long-term.

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

with this team you better love the young players or get used to loving them.

there is no mix of players out there that are actually available and conceivably attainable that puts us over golden state or Cleveland in the next 3-4 yr's.

and if you believe otherwise you're lying to yourself. trust me, I've told everyone how the last few seasons were going to end for this team and I have yet to be wrong.

so getting behind the young players apparently is something we're going to have to do.

fine by me. be patient. develop kids.

[LilRip]

Often, teams with HoF players/perennial all stars win a championship. The easiest way to land a perennial all star is to draft him. There have been other ways of course (Miami Heat), but generally it's been the draft.

The love for young players stems from overestimating potential, mainly because "potential" is so hard to measure. Guys can be great, despite so few being great. Couple that with bias/homerism and it's a recipe for tremendously overrating a player.

How many players go on to win Finals MVP? Odds are most come from the top 3 picks. Yes there are others but generally, that's the trend.