Nice win but Bad Kelly showed up tonite.
KO ready to settle for 10 million a season
Inconsistent at best
This is a list of players that signed for $10 to just over $11 million last season (the range you want to pay Kelly in):
Even when he struggles, Kelly's worth more than those guys. $10 million might have been okay before the jump, but now it would be a really insulting offer. I don't know if he'll end up signing here (since Danny will be trying for a max FA), but he'll be getting much more than $10 million next year. And if we aren't willing to give it to him what he deserves, teams will be lining up looking to sign him. He's not a max player, but he's absolutely worth ~$15 million a year under the new cap.
I disagree. I would be surprised if he averages more than $13 mil a season. $10 mil is probably wishful thinking, but restricted free agency typically keeps offers down when it looks like the team with matching rights will exercise them.
I think our cap situation this offseason is fluid enough that a team could try to steal him from us. Someone could sign him to an offer sheet in the first day or so, for good enough money that he signs the offer sheet, and early enough that we have to decide between him and trying for a max FA. With Brooklyn's style of offense and cap space, I could see it being them (assuming that Washington makes Porter a max offer right away and he takes it, because otherwise Brooklyn should be going after him)
If Olynyk were 24, I might agree with you. But KO will be 26 in April. Brooklyn is trying to poach RFAs not who they necessarily want this year or next, but who they might want a couple years down the road, and might want to offer contract #3 to if contract #2 works out. KO would likely be 30 when that contract ends -- I just don't think he fits into Brooklyn's long-term plans, especially since most reasonable deals will likely be matched by Ainge.
Especially when you consider how much more of the cap is going to draftees in the future, I think the market for top bench players like Olynyk will cool. I don't expect the deals of last year to repeat themselves for that caliber of player.
Also, the team that worries me most about such a poaching attempt is not Brooklyn, but Miami.