Author Topic: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?  (Read 5570 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline jade88

  • Brad Stevens
  • Posts: 221
  • Tommy Points: 20
Now i know the headline alludes to them not being as valuable as we thought, but that is not the case nor what i mean. 


What i am asking is this, does the team from Wyc and Co. on down, still want to use them to grab an established star? This is what i've wanted more than anything, a quick rebuild seemed more than possible when we traded for IT4 and got Horford in FA. We're on pace to win 55 games potentially, maybe we aren't that good, but we're one more big time scorer away from being a great team.

In the past week we've seen Danny pass on an All-NBA caliber player in Cousins and pass on multiple All-Stars who more than likely were available for the right price. Now i wouldn't move a bunch of our contributing players just for one guy, that would deplete us, but why won't he forsake youth and promise for the here and now?


It seems as if Danny isn't committed to attempting to win now, he still seems intrigued by the draft. I get it, but it really does suck for those of us who wanted the fast turnaround. I don't see too many more deals for these type of players coming our way, not without other suitors competing with us. A pick like the 2017 BK pick is most valuable before the deadline imo, if we drop to #3 it just won't be the same.





Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought the would be?
« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2017, 12:47:20 PM »

Offline Granath

  • NCE
  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2154
  • Tommy Points: 567
No, they're not bargaining chips. They're not even assets any more.

These picks ended up being so good that they now have to be considered as Golden Opportunities.

I think some folks are having trouble coming to terms with that. The original idea was that Danny was going to amass a huge number of picks - some decent, some not - and throw a bunch of them at a trade deal. It was a pretty good plan and he pulled it off well. We had a massive number of chips. We used them to get Crowder, IT, Smart and some other key contributors.

But these picks are too good to throw them around. Danny's smart enough to know that he has an opportunity that's never come to any GM before. Never before in the history of the NBA has any 50+ win team ever had 2 consecutive top 5 lottery picks. The Cs are going to have two and have a high likelihood of actually getting 3 top 5 picks. Those are tools in which you just don't build a winning team but you have an opportunity to build a dynasty.

Now I'm not saying the Cs are a dynasty or are going to be one. It's just they have an exceptionally rare opportunity to potentially have the pieces to do it. You don't just cash those in when others at the table are holding aces (Cle and GS). Better off waiting for the table to clear a bit and then sitting down and running away with it.
Jaylen Brown will be an All Star in the next 5 years.

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2017, 12:49:09 PM »

Offline BitterJim

  • NGT
  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8928
  • Tommy Points: 1212
Now i know the headline alludes to them not being as valuable as we thought, but that is not the case nor what i mean. 


What i am asking is this, does the team from Wyc and Co. on down, still want to use them to grab an established star? This is what i've wanted more than anything, a quick rebuild seemed more than possible when we traded for IT4 and got Horford in FA. We're on pace to win 55 games potentially, maybe we aren't that good, but we're one more big time scorer away from being a great team.

In the past week we've seen Danny pass on an All-NBA caliber player in Cousins and pass on multiple All-Stars who more than likely were available for the right price. Now i wouldn't move a bunch of our contributing players just for one guy, that would deplete us, but why won't he forsake youth and promise for the here and now?


It seems as if Danny isn't committed to attempting to win now, he still seems intrigued by the draft. I get it, but it really does suck for those of us who wanted the fast turnaround. I don't see too many more deals for these type of players coming our way, not without other suitors competing with us. A pick like the 2017 BK pick is most valuable before the deadline imo, if we drop to #3 it just won't be the same.

That doesn't make sense if you're the team trading for the pick, though.  If you're trading a star for a pick pre-lottery, you need to treat it much more like the worst case scenario than the best case scenario.  I can't imagine other teams treated like anything better than a #3 pick.  Obviously, there's risk that the pick ends up #4, but I think the reward of it possibly being #1 or #2 overshadows that.

And we don;t know for sure that any stars were truly available other than Cousins.  George and Butler may have been, but it seems to me that waiting until after the lottery makes the most sense if they want to make a deal (although a huge overpay could likely have gotten it done).  It removes the risk associated with the pick and gives the possibility of a bidding war between the Celtics and Lakers (if the Lakers pick ends up in the top 3 and they keep it)
I'm bitter.

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #3 on: February 24, 2017, 12:50:48 PM »

Offline saltlover

  • Frank Ramsey
  • ************
  • Posts: 12490
  • Tommy Points: 2619
If you thought they'd only be used to trade for a star, then yes, I guess you were mistaken.

But if Ainge is going to get the best value for them, making the picks has to be AN option.  It doesn't have to be THE ONLY option, but if teams believe that Ainge is going to look to trade the picks regardless, then they will have less value.  Ainge is very willing to take the slower road if that's what makes sense.  And the slower road could lead to a two-decade long run of dominance like the Spurs, so yes, patience can pay off.

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2017, 12:53:50 PM »

Offline PhoSita

  • NCE
  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21835
  • Tommy Points: 2182
In some ways the picks are too valuable to trade.  The team can't afford to give up likely top 5 picks unless the return is an established player of the sort you'd hope to get by using the pick.

Other teams that are considering trading such a player aren't going to do so unless they feel they're getting a major haul, except if they are in a situation where the player himself is a locker room cancer (e.g. Cousins) or the player is going to hit free agency very soon (e.g. George).  In either of those cases, it won't make sense for the Celts to give up a major haul just to add a guy who might not stick around long term or who might ruin the good chemistry they have going.

Bottom line, having all these picks means the Celtics can afford to take the long view, even though their two best players are probably going to be on a steady decline after this season. 

Unless a deal would give them a chance to become significantly better this year and for multiple seasons in the future, it makes more sense to hang back and use the draft picks to buttress the current core with a sustainable cast of young talented players who may one day take over as the core of the franchise.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought the would be?
« Reply #5 on: February 24, 2017, 12:54:31 PM »

Offline footey

  • Reggie Lewis
  • ***************
  • Posts: 15974
  • Tommy Points: 1834
No, they're not bargaining chips. They're not even assets any more.

These picks ended up being so good that they now have to be considered as Golden Opportunities.

I think some folks are having trouble coming to terms with that. The original idea was that Danny was going to amass a huge number of picks - some decent, some not - and throw a bunch of them at a trade deal. It was a pretty good plan and he pulled it off well. We had a massive number of chips. We used them to get Crowder, IT, Smart and some other key contributors.

But these picks are too good to throw them around. Danny's smart enough to know that he has an opportunity that's never come to any GM before. Never before in the history of the NBA has any 50+ win team ever had 2 consecutive top 5 lottery picks. The Cs are going to have two and have a high likelihood of actually getting 3 top 5 picks. Those are tools in which you just don't build a winning team but you have an opportunity to build a dynasty.

Now I'm not saying the Cs are a dynasty or are going to be one. It's just they have an exceptionally rare opportunity to potentially have the pieces to do it. You don't just cash those in when others at the table are holding aces (Cle and GS). Better off waiting for the table to clear a bit and then sitting down and running away with it.

This. In spades.

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #6 on: February 24, 2017, 12:56:15 PM »

Offline The One

  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2017
  • Tommy Points: 203
That trade has become the Goose that lays Golden Eggs!

The impact will be felt for 10+ years!!

Mama mia!!


Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #7 on: February 24, 2017, 01:01:11 PM »

Offline jade88

  • Brad Stevens
  • Posts: 221
  • Tommy Points: 20
I will be highly surprised if we get a player as talented as DeMarcus Cousins in the next few years, i was stunned to see Danny let a top 10 (talent) go for peanuts. You would think his talent alone would remove his reservations. I bet we could keep him here too, it's a great situation.

Outside of It4, Bradley, and Horford, we're pretty much a group of lunch pail guys playing blue collar basketball and in experienced kids who can't crack the rotation. You need a little bit of all of these things to be successful, but man i'd like to replace some of these guys with top shelf talent in their prime.

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #8 on: February 24, 2017, 01:11:33 PM »

Offline Bobshot

  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2050
  • Tommy Points: 141
Fair question. We saw in the draft last year that those picks weren't very mobile. You didn't get teams willing to trade major players for them. Maybe because the most talented kids are 19yos, and 2-3 year projects. Can't help right away.

It's possible Ainge is overstacked with draft picks, to the point of diminishing returns. We saw last year that only one pick, Brown, stuck with the team. The rest were spread all over the place--in Europe, China, minor leagues, etc. No roster space, plus most weren't ready or may never be.

After the Nets17 pick, this year Ainge will have the same dilemma unless he unloads picks for future ones.

Too many picks, too little roster space. Not enough trade demand for picks?

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #9 on: February 24, 2017, 01:25:21 PM »

Offline MattyIce

  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2208
  • Tommy Points: 743
I will be highly surprised if we get a player as talented as DeMarcus Cousins in the next few years, i was stunned to see Danny let a top 10 (talent) go for peanuts. You would think his talent alone would remove his reservations. I bet we could keep him here too, it's a great situation.

Outside of It4, Bradley, and Horford, we're pretty much a group of lunch pail guys playing blue collar basketball and in experienced kids who can't crack the rotation. You need a little bit of all of these things to be successful, but man i'd like to replace some of these guys with top shelf talent in their prime.

then I hope your equally surprised that any other team besides the Pels "let him go" as well

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #10 on: February 24, 2017, 01:33:10 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8826
  • Tommy Points: 289
I think the picks value is through the roof till they don't end up one because the league hates us. But honestly love 1-7 this draft as well as 1-5 projection in 2018. DA either just doesn't believe in this team as a contender or he really wants to prove he can build a team through the draft not just trading for guys. I'm okay with building through the draft.

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #11 on: February 24, 2017, 01:37:14 PM »

Offline KGBirdBias

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1649
  • Tommy Points: 125
The Nets 2017 pick will become pure gold on May 16th 2017 at 9:30 pm. It's silver right now.

Ainge will have people eating out of his hands this year and next year. Brooklyn is getting worse not better.

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #12 on: February 24, 2017, 01:43:24 PM »

Offline sdceltsfan

  • Jrue Holiday
  • Posts: 347
  • Tommy Points: 45
I see what the OP is trying to say, but I think a lot of people are overlooking the underlying theme of greed. Every smart GM in the league is trying to hoard assets, and flip them for more than their original value/acquisition. At this particular point in time, we had a few top 10-15 players who were all made "available" (a very abstract word in the trade market).

Everyone in the league also knows that outside of Philly maybe, the Celtics have the best package of easily liqubable and high-value trade commodities between their combination of picks/young prospects/amazing contracts.

Players like Jimmy Butler, Paul George, etc., on failing teams or mediocre ones, only lose trade value as their contracts get closer to expiration.

THIS is what many on this board are not understanding. Did Ainge p--- away the 2017 season? Hardly! We have the 5th best record in the league as we are "rebuilding". Why is Philly so far down in the standing having had a half decade of top 5 picks and cap space? Bottom line is that the GM's for the teams we were having discussions with got GREEDY. They thought we would cave or some other team would and send them a treasure trove of assets which BUYS THEM MORE TIME.

This is why Ainge is the best poker player in the league. He knows he's sitting with pocket aces. The river hasn't happened yet. The turn will be this years draft once the ping pong balls fall. Right now he was probably hearing, "oh, well this is the 4th pick at best...." When Brooklyn officially finishes in last, and we have a 70% chance of the pick being 1, 2, or 3, it changes everything! If it turns in to #1, we will be able to flip just this pick, maybe a mid level prospect like Rozier, and cap filler for Butler, and especially George, just like Cleveland did when they traded #1 for Kevin Love (which I'm sure they now also regret).

This is only going to get better, and we as Celtics fans, need to stand pat too. Stand back with a positive attitude, and watch a fun and competitive team do their thing! The rest will absolutely fall in to place.

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #13 on: February 24, 2017, 01:46:03 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5227
  • Tommy Points: 1065
I'll probably open a can of worms here, but if one accepts that Danny is an above average evaluator of talent relative to the rest of the league (as evinced by his draft record), then keeping the picks is a win for us. They are more valuable in the hands of someone who can evaluate talent better than others in the league.

I think the Thomas and Crowder moves show his acumen as well, if you're not convinced by the draft record.

We know what Paul George and Butler are already, so Danny doesn't really have as much of an edge there.

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #14 on: February 24, 2017, 01:46:12 PM »

Offline Dannys Chipotle Guy

  • Derrick White
  • Posts: 279
  • Tommy Points: 48
The Nets 2017 pick will become pure gold on May 16th 2017 at 9:30 pm. It's silver right now.

Ainge will have people eating out of his hands this year and next year. Brooklyn is getting worse not better.
yeah, draft picks peak in value on draft night.

Obviously if it lands 3 or 4 it probably is less valuable than it was yesterday afternoon, but if it lands 1 or 2 it will be much more valuable than it was yesterday.