Championship window

[the TRUTH]

Also, assuming we keep the 2017 Brooklyn pick, win the draft lottery and keep Jaylen Brown, a team built around those two should keep us as fringe contenders at the very least for the next 10-12 years (starting in the 2018-19 season) no matter what other moves are made as long as we hit on the Brooklyn pick and Brown reaches his full potential.

[Neurotic Guy]

How the C's develop is the only thing DA can control (well, not control so much as influence). However, the contention equation is as much to do with how the competition develops as it does how we develop.  With Philly on the verge of possibly adding 2 more high-ceiling players to.Embiid and Simmons, LAL adding a top 3 (potentially), Twolves adding a top 5 -- I am not sure whether the C's future projects as brightly as any of these teams.   IF the C's can get some luck on lottery night this year -- it will make a huge difference.

Re: the OPs assessment of Jaylen Brown, I love the rookie, but I don't see his potential as any better than either of th 3 Lakers youngs (Russell, Ingram or Randle), I see it as less promising than the 2 Sixers, and probably less promising or equal to 3 or 4 Twolves.    We have a couple of unproven prospects overseas and the picks, but right now I think the competitors are ahead in terms of very young talent.  Again, top pick in 2017 would be a game-changer.  Philly, LA or Minny in possession of yet another high-ceiling rookie (or 2 in the case of Philly) is scary.

[JBcat]

This is not our latest big 3 era where it was much more of a finite window.  That team didn't have all these young and future "assets".  You could say with more certainty when that window would end.

There are so many variables and questions with this current team.   We are really not in that first tier of top teams.  Lebron will be 33 next year, and Lowry is in his 30s now so we may be able to sustain a window to the finals at least for a while.

What has me a little worried right now is what Thomas is doing for this team right now is that fools gold?  He is carrying us, and it's unheard of scoring over 10 points a game in the 4th quarter.  Most of our games have been close.  Can he keep this up for the next few years?  That is a big question for me.

The other is our probable next best 3 players Horford, Crowder, and Bradley are probably as good as they are going to be.  Especially with Horford will we see a decline with each passing year?  That's a question for me.

With our young guys how quickly and how much can they develop to make a big impact for our window while our current group is still around.  Maybe it will be something where in a few years Players like Thomas and Crowder take more of a back seat where Brown and say we draft Fultz are ready for the lead role.

I've already mentioned Horford's possible decline, but overall as currently constructed the future of our bigs is fragile. Kelly will be a RFA and Amir a FA this summer. How soon can Zizic and Yabu or if at all make an impact on a playoff caliber team. A big question is what happens there.

Saying all this we have so many assets and cap space this summer we could go in a few different directions that could affect our window.  With Lebron approaching his mid 30s the window is a little open at least for us to make the finals.  Ainge is a savvy GM so I'm hopeful our window getting to the finals will be open for while.  Winning will be another matter as long as the Warriors remain together.

[mctyson]

I started a thread about embrace the "Development" and in that thread I said C's should keep doing the slow rebuild and stay competitive, the window isn't even half way open yet.

I think one thing that people are massively underestimating about Stevens, and Danny's reason for hiring him, is that Steven is clearly a GREAT developer/maximizer of talent. 

That is the key for the speedy rebuild. 

[CelticPride2016]

I did not say it will happen this year or even next... the issue is which team you believe can win a titlee
Thomas bradley crowder as main players
Or brown smart and the 2 picks..
Because these groups have different windows

Why not both? Bill Russell and Hondo experienced transition on main cores. Let the young guys develop first. If lets say Bradley and Isaiah can no longer be in the driver's seat, then that is the time to put the younger guys in.

From Bob Cousy and Tommy Heinson to KC Jones and Sam Jones

Hondo played with Bill Russell to Dave Cowens.

Duncan played with David Robinson to Kawhi Leonard.

I agree. The Celtics have been pretty good at times seguing from era to era like you point out. Bradley is the last connection to our previous era. Sully at his best seemed to also continue the tradition.

Bird played a year with Cowens.

We could bring back McHale and Pierce as coaches. We don't seem to have a real center coach. If it's McCarty, that is embarrassing. I love Walter, everyone does especially Tommy, but he was never a center. Pierce has mentioned before he'd like to come back. I think Hondo still shows up at practice sometimes and gives some free coaching.

I was trying to be funny with the word cheating, as I said Danny cheated Brooklyn.

Golden State is to be commended for how they put their team together, but that's simply ridiculous they added an MVP to a 70 win team.

Lebron is getting ridiculous. At some point Golden State will hit the Cleveland point where there's simply no money left.

I love Isaiah, but I could see Danny drafting a phenom guard, then that player takes over for Isaiah in a couple years with Smart. I love Bradley, but he too will command a lot of cap space and soon.

But that's not for quite a while and I try to live in the moment of each season. Although I type this with the game in the background.

The Clippers might be a cautionary tale for Danny to avoid going for the old Big Three model.

We will have high enough picks to go the Golden State route, slow and steady until it becomes clear we are a top team and heavy favorites to win it all.

We are already a top five NBA team. Unless someone wants to move the field goalposts, we are in basketball heaven and it can only get better. When you are already a top five team, the only room left to get better means you become the best team. The Celtics are percolating. This is a developing story. Cooking high quality food takes time. Go the long route, Danny.

[CelticPride2016]

There are a lot of good comments here. This blog seems to skew what the average Celtics fan thinks, but not on this thread. I can see why people drool over Cousins, but talking about Melo and Butler? We need a certain kind of big to have a better puncher's chance while the young guys percolate.

[Moranis]

I started a thread about embrace the "Development" and in that thread I said C's should keep doing the slow rebuild and stay competitive, the window isn't even half way open yet.

I think one thing that people are massively underestimating about Stevens, and Danny's reason for hiring him, is that Steven is clearly a GREAT developer/maximizer of talent. 

That is the key for the speedy rebuild.

but can Stevens actually coach a championship level team?  He might just be good at developing young players and not actually coaching a championship level team.

[Granath]

I started a thread about embrace the "Development" and in that thread I said C's should keep doing the slow rebuild and stay competitive, the window isn't even half way open yet.

I think one thing that people are massively underestimating about Stevens, and Danny's reason for hiring him, is that Steven is clearly a GREAT developer/maximizer of talent. 

That is the key for the speedy rebuild.

but can Stevens actually coach a championship level team?  He might just be good at developing young players and not actually coaching a championship level team.

He did in college and so far has been successful in the pros (turning around the Cs faster than anyone expected). So while it remains to be see, the magic 8 ball says:

[Moranis]

I started a thread about embrace the "Development" and in that thread I said C's should keep doing the slow rebuild and stay competitive, the window isn't even half way open yet.

I think one thing that people are massively underestimating about Stevens, and Danny's reason for hiring him, is that Steven is clearly a GREAT developer/maximizer of talent. 

That is the key for the speedy rebuild.

but can Stevens actually coach a championship level team?  He might just be good at developing young players and not actually coaching a championship level team.

He did in college and so far has been successful in the pros (turning around the Cs faster than anyone expected). So while it remains to be see, the magic 8 ball says:

I certainly hope so, but a 2-8 post season record is not a great start.

[Darío SpanishFan]

I started a thread about embrace the "Development" and in that thread I said C's should keep doing the slow rebuild and stay competitive, the window isn't even half way open yet.

I think one thing that people are massively underestimating about Stevens, and Danny's reason for hiring him, is that Steven is clearly a GREAT developer/maximizer of talent. 

That is the key for the speedy rebuild.

but can Stevens actually coach a championship level team?  He might just be good at developing young players and not actually coaching a championship level team.

He did in college and so far has been successful in the pros (turning around the Cs faster than anyone expected). So while it remains to be see, the magic 8 ball says:

I certainly hope so, but a 2-8 post season record is not a great start.

Did you expect with such teams to challenge the Cavs or eliminate the Hawks? Let's be realistic.

[Ilikesports17]

I started a thread about embrace the "Development" and in that thread I said C's should keep doing the slow rebuild and stay competitive, the window isn't even half way open yet.

I think one thing that people are massively underestimating about Stevens, and Danny's reason for hiring him, is that Steven is clearly a GREAT developer/maximizer of talent. 

That is the key for the speedy rebuild.

but can Stevens actually coach a championship level team?  He might just be good at developing young players and not actually coaching a championship level team.

He did in college and so far has been successful in the pros (turning around the Cs faster than anyone expected). So while it remains to be see, the magic 8 ball says:

I certainly hope so, but a 2-8 post season record is not a great start.

The 40-42 Boston Celtics didnt have a prayer against the fully healthy Cavs.
the 48 win Celtics probably should have done better against the Hawks but losing Avery Bradley and then having Kelly and Crowder reduced to shadows of their original selves makes a 4-2 exit more palatable.

Cant blame Brad for either of those.

I dont see any reason to believe he cant coach a championship level team.

[Granath]

"The Window" is actually the one bet that Ainge is still hedging. He has two routes:

Method One - Open Long but Not as Wide
The above title is a bit of a misnomer because it's simply not guaranteed to be as wide but you get the point. This method assumes that the Cs use the Brooklyn picks and build around a core of Smart, Brown, Brooklyn 2017, Brooklyn 2018, etc. to supplement the existing core of IT, Horford, Crowder and Bradley. The idea is that the team remains competitive for a very long time, develop the picks in a winning atmosphere and make FA moves and trades to build the right mix. Given the high historical success of bringing in top-5 players into winning environments (most have turned into All Stars), this means that the window could conceivably remain open for 10+ years. But unless the picks turn into superstars there's never any one moment when the entire team reaches their peak. So there's going to be this constant shuffle as roles are redefined when the youngsters come up and the current veterans start to age.

Method Two - Open Wide but not as Long
Method two is essentially "win now". Danny moves the picks and the young guys for established vets and studs who can help win a championship that season (essentially the 2008 team). This method acquires guys like Paul George, Butler and/or Cousins to put the team over the top. Most every player in that scenario would be at their peak and thus the Cs would wind up with an exceptionally competitive team for around 5 years. After that the team would get too old and barring another Brooklyn deal there would have to be another period of rebuilding. In some ways this method is more assured - barring injuries, acquiring a stud or two to supplement an already talented roster means the Cs can compete with anyone.

As I said, this is the one bet Danny's still hedging on. In some ways I hope he goes with the first method. Never in NBA history has a really good team drafted as many as three top 5 picks while winning 50+ games. Building a championship team this way has never been done because no one has ever had this good of an opportunity to do it. The historical track record of top picks by winning teams developing into stars of their own is quite high (look it up). Assuming guys like Jaylen and Brooklyn 2017 develop, the Cs would be looking at a 10+ year window with guys learning the right way from Day 1. Essentially, they could turn into the Spurs of the last 15 years. How fun would that be?

[CelticGuardian]

It's a two year window at best with this group. People have to get paid, those kind of thing tends to break up cores. No matter how you feel about Olynyk, Smart, IT4 and Bradley. They all most likely will command interest from the Brooklyn Nets' of the world. So I'm not confident Danny is going to get a bargain for any of them. This is where rookie contracts become useful folks!!!

[CelticPride2016]

As I said, this is the one bet Danny's still hedging on. In some ways I hope he goes with the first method. Never in NBA history has a really good team drafted as many as three top 5 picks while winning 50+ games. Building a championship team this way has never been done because no one has ever had this good of an opportunity to do it. The historical track record of top picks by winning teams developing into stars of their own is quite high (look it up). Assuming guys like Jaylen and Brooklyn 2017 develop, the Cs would be looking at a 10+ year window with guys learning the right way from Day 1. Essentially, they could turn into the Spurs of the last 15 years. How fun would that be?

I liked that full comment. It was all true. I think Ainge would be foolish to go for Cousins or George. For guys like Noel, I could see Danny coughing up Rozier, Non-Brooklyn picks and probably a little bit of something else good or else why would Philly do it?

If Ainge goes all-in say trading for studs or overpaying for Blake Griffin, I will lose some confidence in the trajectory. I think those wide openings can be highly overrated. Look at what we ended up with right before the blowup. It was no man's land.

There's one other thing which I think should be considered: Devastating injuries don't happen everywhere and all the time, but they do happen.

Philly will be chewing their fingernails over Embiid's health for at least five years until at that point people marvel at modern medicine or say poor Embiid and Oden, Walton, Yao Ming, lots of guys. It's not so rare. It happened to KG.

So I imagine it like scratch tickets. Not that I condone gambling and especially that garbage, but if you put all the chips into Cousins, if he breaks down, you are expletive deleted.

Yes, so spread out all your scratch tickets instead of buying one extremely expensive one. The draft picks will be cost friendly for many years. Smart and Brown are showing that it doesn't have to take that long for such picks to become reliable parts of a winning rotation.

Smart looks like a machine. I think his rookie year he "tore up" his ankle because he wasn't taping them. Tommy probably took him out to the woodshed. I think Tommy has also been coaching Olynyk behind the scenes. Kelly has added some kind of flip hook. Maybe Zeller is finally earning some money teaching him that and atoning for giving Al a concussion as rumored but never confirmed.

Smart, Brown, Isaiah and Crowder look strong with stamina. Jae is much better than Evan Turner, but look at their contracts.

We have picks and stashes on the way. Danny can make a few moves. So if one guy got a bad injury, we would survive.

I also like the idea of going for 10 to 15 years of dominance over a perhaps stronger, but much shorter window.

That's how I would gamble it. Gamble on Stevens and great young talent.

I wouldn't trade Cousins for anything less than both Brooklyn picks, Bradley and Crowder. I mean, it takes two to trade. What would Sacramento accept?

Well, without giving away the shop, we could get Noel, and Zizic comes in next year.

For speculation, I think that's the next move. Maybe it won't be Noel, but he is from here, fills the biggest hole and could put us over the top as long as Smart and Brown are the real stuff.

Philly won't give him away for free, but it's obvious they'd like to unload him or Okafor. Maybe Danny will get us Bogut or some of the other names floating around. I was disappointed it seems Sanders won't be brought in. Maybe he is still not right in the head to come back. But watch Golden State or Cleveland sign him for minimum pay and win the title, and then I'll be mad at Ainge, for further speculation if that happens.

[Rosco917]

Two major events led to us being able to even find the window, never mind open it.

1. When Danny traded the aging Pierce and Garnett to the Nets for what amounted to all of their next three 1st round draft picks, the entire organization was redirected for the future. The fact is we're just beginning to reap the harvest of this trade. We actually have a chance to get the number 1 pick in what is being called the best draft of the last ten years. Plus, the Nets will still be a strong candidate for next years worst team in the NBA. Another potential top 3 pick. In the world of professional sports trading...Danny is a GM serial killer.

2. The IT trade turned out to be another grand heist. Everyone knew he could score the ball, it was obvious in Sacramento, why the Suns couldn't find a place for him I have no idea. But when Mr. Thomas went from solid undersized scorer to NBA superstar... at the very least the C's have a star player of very high value.

My only fear is that Danny is now known as the GM to not make a trade with. No GM wants to look bad, and trading with DA can do just that.

It's nice to have the option of keeping the best of these high draft picks, and continue building solidly and slowly, or wait for some GM to land on Boardwalk. Either way when you enter "NBA Draft rumors" on your server, the C's name always comes up as the organization holding many trump cards.   

As for the Championship Window, it's just beginning to open...