Author Topic: The Great Celtics Asset Rank  (Read 3269 times)

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The Great Celtics Asset Rank
« on: February 03, 2017, 12:27:55 PM »

Offline oldtype

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With the trade deadline coming up and tons of recent development, I think it's a good time to make another thread re: evaluating our truckload of assets.

I've excluded Thomas and Horford for this because I don't think there's any sort of trade that makes sense for either of them.  I decided not to bother with anything that's worth less than Demetrius Jackson or Abdel Nader (apologies to James Young).  I also did not include Johnson, Zeller, or Jerebko, who will probably just be burned on the deadline/in the offseason for salary matching purposes. 

Finally, I added in parentheses what I think our player assets would net in terms of a 2017 draft pick:

2017 Brooklyn

2018 Brooklyn

Brown (worth roughly the #10 pick)

Zizic (only a tiny bit lower)

Crowder (would probably get you something similar to Brown-Zizic, but it would have to be a contender that has a higher pick for some reason so much less liquidity.)

Bradley (less valuable than Crowder due to only 1 year left on bargain contract. Probably still worth a pick in the early teens)

2019 Memphis

Smart (probably nets a pick similar to Bradley under normal circumstances, but teams will be wary dealing for him when he has a big RFA payday coming up, aka Nerlens Noel syndrome.)

2018 Celtics

2019 Celtics

Rozier (very late first-rounder/early second-rounder)

2019 Clippers

2017 Twolves 2nd

Yab (would be worth some sort of middling 2nd rounder if we chose to move him, but we shouldn't)

Olynyk (maybe some team gives up a 2nd rounder for his restricted rights? Would probably be worth a late 1st if not an RFA)

2017 Clippers 2nd
Jackson, Nader, Mickey (some sort of mid-late second round pick)

2017 Cleveland 2nd


Some notes:

- I suspect Brown and Zizic are actually worth roughly the same (#10-ish pick in this year's draft) at this point.  Fairly or unfairly, Brown has been shoehorned into a narrative of only being the #3 pick because the 2016 draft was terrible, and he hasn't done anything to really boost his value in the small minutes he's been given (thankfully, he hasn't done anything to tank it either.) 

Zizic hasn't actually played in the NBA yet so he still has the mystique-factor going for him, and the Adriatic League and Euroleague stats he's posted are pretty staggering for a 20-year old.  If he came out this year instead of last year, I suspect he'd go as high as #11 given how thin the big-man crop is.  He could be second big off the board if Giles slides.

- People undersell the Memphis 2019 pick a lot.  It is only 1-8 protected that year and 1-6 protected the next.  With Gasol at 35 and Conley at 32, there's a decent chance that Memphis is a lottery team by 2019 and we net a pick in the #9-14 range.  This is not some random bullEdited.  Profanity and masked profanity are against forum rules and may result in discipline. first-rounder like the 2019 Clippers pick.  It's either a valuable trade chip or could give us a chance to reload with a legit prospect after we're already contenders.

- Our own picks in 2018 and 2019 are also low-key important assets.  There are a lot of good players in bad situations where the selling team may be willing to settle for multiple middling picks stapled together. (See, e.g., Anthony, Ibaka, Nurkic). Not necessarily saying we should trade for these players, but if we want to, our own future picks are good hard currency to do so with. 

- Rozier is really difficult to gauge because he's shown a lot raw skills-wise but has had objectively poor NBA production.  Given his age, I would guess that not a lot of teams would be willing to give up a first rounder for him.

- Yabusele has very little value at this point.  He was originally rated as a second-rounder and with him spending a year playing glorified exhibition games in China, there's no information that helps us guess whether he's an actual NBA player or not.  He has an intriguing skillset, but his value will only materialize (if it ever does) after he's spent a year playing in a real league that gives us projectable data like Zizic has. 
« Last Edit: February 03, 2017, 12:34:57 PM by oldtype »


Great words from a great man

Re: The Great Celtics Asset Rank
« Reply #1 on: February 03, 2017, 12:42:06 PM »

Offline chambers

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Brown is worth waaaayyy more than Zizic.
Brown is probably our 2nd best asset after the 17' BRK pick. Maybe 3rd best if we think the Nets will be even worse next year losing Lopez etc...

At age 20 Brown is an incredibly valuable trade asset.
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: The Great Celtics Asset Rank
« Reply #2 on: February 03, 2017, 12:46:17 PM »

Offline wdleehi

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17 Net
18 Net
Brown
Smart
AB
Crowder
Zizic
Olynyk
Rozier
Yab

Re: The Great Celtics Asset Rank
« Reply #3 on: February 03, 2017, 12:54:16 PM »

Offline oldtype

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Brown is worth waaaayyy more than Zizic.
Brown is probably our 2nd best asset after the 17' BRK pick. Maybe 3rd best if we think the Nets will be even worse next year losing Lopez etc...

At age 20 Brown is an incredibly valuable trade asset.

Do you think Brown could net us a pick better than #10 if we tried to trade him on draft night?  I would imagine that's highly unlikely.


Great words from a great man

Re: The Great Celtics Asset Rank
« Reply #4 on: February 03, 2017, 12:59:08 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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17 Net
18 Net
Brown
Smart
AB
Crowder
Zizic
Olynyk
Rozier
Yab
I would switch Crowder and Bradley but otherwise agree with this. I also would add the caveat that after Brown, there is a large gap in value.

Regarding the OP, there is no way Brown is worth only the 10th pick this year and its even more unreasonable to value Zizic as highly as Brown or more than some of the Celtics players.

Re: The Great Celtics Asset Rank
« Reply #5 on: February 03, 2017, 01:09:49 PM »

Offline oldtype

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17 Net
18 Net
Brown
Smart
AB
Crowder
Zizic
Olynyk
Rozier
Yab
I would switch Crowder and Bradley but otherwise agree with this. I also would add the caveat that after Brown, there is a large gap in value.

Regarding the OP, there is no way Brown is worth only the 10th pick this year and its even more unreasonable to value Zizic as highly as Brown or more than some of the Celtics players.

Who would trade a top 9 pick in this draft for Brown?

Fultz, Ball, Smith Jr., Jackson, and Isaac are indisputably higher-rated prospects than Brown was coming out of college. 

Monk, Taytum, Fox, Markaanen, and Ntilikana are all similarly or slightly higher-rated prospects, but come with an extra year of team control and have the "shiny new thing" factor in their favor

Maybe some team at 9~10 would be willing to trade the pick for Brown if the guy they wanted is off the board, but it's really really difficult to see him being worth anything higher than that.

If Zizic was in this draft, he would most likely go somewhere from 11~16, competing with Robert Williams and the corpse of Harry Giles to be second big off the board. That's not a huge gap.


Great words from a great man

Re: The Great Celtics Asset Rank
« Reply #6 on: February 03, 2017, 01:17:20 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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I'd put Brown behind
Fultz, Jackson, Ball, Tat

Tied with
Smith and Monk.

Ahead of the rest. But there is plenty of basketball to go.

Re: The Great Celtics Asset Rank
« Reply #7 on: February 03, 2017, 01:20:12 PM »

Offline guava_wrench

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17 Net
18 Net
Brown
Smart
AB
Crowder
Zizic
Olynyk
Rozier
Yab
Where is IT? He has a great contract and is scoring 30 ppg.

Re: The Great Celtics Asset Rank
« Reply #8 on: February 03, 2017, 01:39:48 PM »

Offline wdleehi

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Brown
Smart
AB
Crowder
Zizic
Olynyk
Rozier
Yab
Where is IT? He has a great contract and is scoring 30 ppg.


I don't look at him and Horford as the trade bait.  If in the future, the Celtics are looking younger, sure.   Right now, win now.

Re: The Great Celtics Asset Rank
« Reply #9 on: February 03, 2017, 04:14:17 PM »

Offline CelticPride2016

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I believe some of our assets are better than others think.

Bradley and Crowder are top notch quality.

Brown deserves more respect and time to develop. He has shown a lot of confidence. He's been getting praised for his defense lately. He is obviously being groomed to become a menace on offense and a quality two-way player. That's how we could win it all with Isaiah. Jaylen/Smart can cover for his height. Jae is solid. We are just weak upfront as everyone knows. We need a defensive big to pair with Horford. Captain Obvious has been trying to reach Ainge. Then we could become the true challenger to Golden State. It could have been Amir. But he got old quick or something.

Olynyk is undervalued, imho. He has proven himself over the last month. He is clearly worth a #10 or so pick. He is quality. Bradley is worth a top #5 pick.

It would be a mistake to trade Jaylen Brown. He looks like he is going to be unstoppable. Marcus Smart and Olynyk are coming to age. Rozier looks intriguing.

We need the trade deadline to pass, so we can kick back and watch the games in peace.

Re: The Great Celtics Asset Rank
« Reply #10 on: February 03, 2017, 04:21:20 PM »

Offline CelticGuardian

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We all know that the C's true 5 star asset is the first of the Brooklyn picks... James Young.

A guy could lose his job trying to get in his way.

Re: The Great Celtics Asset Rank
« Reply #11 on: February 03, 2017, 05:26:08 PM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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17 Net
18 Net
Brown
Smart
AB
Crowder
Zizic
Olynyk
Rozier
Yab



 Way to step up to the plate Wdl,TP.

Re: The Great Celtics Asset Rank
« Reply #12 on: February 03, 2017, 05:31:52 PM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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 Interesting point about Zizic possibly being the second big off the board after Giles.

 Not sure I buy that though, Markkanen and Patton may both go ahead of Giles at this point.

 Disagree about Yabu though, Teams will want him in a big trade. I would he's got upside for sure.

Re: The Great Celtics Asset Rank
« Reply #13 on: February 03, 2017, 05:53:02 PM »

Offline oldtype

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 Interesting point about Zizic possibly being the second big off the board after Giles.

 Not sure I buy that though, Markkanen and Patton may both go ahead of Giles at this point.

 Disagree about Yabu though, Teams will want him in a big trade. I would he's got upside for sure.

After Markkanen, not Giles.  I don't think Giles will go top 10.


Great words from a great man

Re: The Great Celtics Asset Rank
« Reply #14 on: February 03, 2017, 06:07:42 PM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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 Interesting point about Zizic possibly being the second big off the board after Giles.

 Not sure I buy that though, Markkanen and Patton may both go ahead of Giles at this point.

 Disagree about Yabu though, Teams will want him in a big trade. I would he's got upside for sure.

After Markkanen, not Giles.  I don't think Giles will go top 10.



 I here you but it only takes 1 team. Giles was the #1 prospect in the country preseason.