Will Stevens move Kelly Olynyk into the starting line up? when?

[saltlover]

He only plays 20 minutes a game right now.
Having him on the floor gives us better defense vs the pick and roll and better offense with the floor being spread.
It's his style of play thats so important.

He would play more if it was so dang important.   The issue is that many games he is a no show.  Do you really think CBS and Ainge are conspiring to keep his minutes down, so he won't blossom, that is absurd.

Competent defensive big men who shoot 40% from three tend to start in the modern NBA.  Hell, incompetent defensive big men who shoot 40% from three tend to start in the modern NBA.

And yet he did not when he shot 40% and even when he did the coach went with JJ in the playoffs last year.    KO is either good or too passive with his play.    He is too passive much more often.   Sometimes you can tell he is physically overwhelmed.

If he was so special, why didn't Ainge offer him an extension?   I can't wait to hear the BS answers that you guys will cook up.

Kelly plays hard and is coming off shoulder surgery. He's a smart player who gets very little respect from the refs. He plays hard on both ends of the floor. Coming back from shoulder surgery is a big thing but once he gets his confidence back his scoring will come back. He's also still quite young for a big man. He'll be in the league for 10 years. He's one of the best players from his draft class. He's a team player

I realize that.   But you also have to admit that his confidences wanes like the moon.  As for the refs, slow guys commit fouls because they can't keep up with their man.  I agree, he is one of the better players in his draft class but that was a weak draft.   He is quite young but he also has not shown a great deal of growth.   I like him as a bench guy but fell out of my chair laughing when guys act that he is a starter on a good team.

1) JJ played ahead of Olynyk in the playoffs last year because Olynyk was injured.  Perhaps you've forgotten.  I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you had.  Olynyk gets way more minutes than Jerebko when healthy.

2) As for Olynyk not getting an extension, here are three "BS excuses", to use your very polite and not remotely argumentative parlance, as for why that didn't occur:

a) Ainge did in fact offer Olynyk an extension, but they couldn't agree on an amount. 
b) Ainge wanted to preserve cap space this summer, and an extension for Olynyk will have a starting salary greater than Olynyk's ~$7.5 million cap hold
c) As already discussed, Olynyk was injured during the playoffs.  This required surgery, and Olynyk had not yet resumed practicing in full before the deadline to agree on an extension had passed.  Accordingly Ainge might not have wanted to sign him to an extension before it was clear he had recovered, or his incomplete recovery caused the two sides to be unable to reach an agreement, as already posited in "BS Excuse a".

None of the above three are mutually exclusive, and indeed a combination of multiple factors is likely, although I think the strongest reason is B.  I thoroughly expect Olynyk to return next season at an amount of $12-14 million per year, or for him to be signed away at an even larger amount.  The only reason that doesn't happen is if we sign a max-level free agent, or he suffers a significant injury in the next five months.

[clover]

Amir and KO are both playing 20 minutes so far on the year. I do think there is something to Amir being able to handle more of the best, most physical bigs so in that way making some sense to start. And I think they value KO's contribution but are still disappointed that he doesn't play at least his O more assertively at this point.

So I'd be surprised if KO moves up unless Amir's salary is part of a package for a star, but not a star big. However, KO is still just two months back from the better part of a year injured and off, having jumped in with no training camp or preseason. And he seems to be playing more consistently decently as he goes along. I actually think though that they wouldn't mind re-signing him on the relative cheap this summer, so they may give him more minutes without making him a starter--unless the Amir trade for other than a star big does come to pass.

[CelticGuardian]

Voted  no.

Watching  how KO passes on open shots is frustrating.  Is like he doesn't recognize where his shots are...after 4yrs.

Having said that, he doesn't miss "gimmies" around the basket and that - as ridiculous as it sounds - is a skill that not every one has.

I think there was one fastbreak this season where he was above the break and passed it back to Isaiah who was trailing behind a defender, instead of just finishing it himself!! The passiveness and lack of physicality out of Olynyk is exactly why he's just an average player.

He doesn't have the cojones to realize his potential.

[green_bballers13]

KO is the smallest 7 footer in the league. Can't jump. Almost useless around the basket. He's another one of those perimeter big men Stevens seems to love. I don't believe those defense numbers. They don't seem to correlate with what you actually see when you watch a game.
I see a guy who can't play in the paint. He really wants to be a PG.

The traditional task of big men is to get the ball. The Celtics don't have enough of those.

TP. Whether or not KO has great advanced metrics does little to change my view that he hurts the Celtics when he is on the floor. I think of him as the anti-Marcus Smart. Neither look great in the box score, but Smart seems to make defensive plays when they matter.

The most significant thing KO has done in his short NBA career is hurt Kevin Love.

[mmmmm]

It's a relatively small sample size of 50 minutes.  I'd also note that when KO is with the other starters, it's often at the end of games.  Many of these times he's being switched in for offense, so he's only on the court when the Celtics have the ball, and thus a chance to gain points, but off the court when the Celtics are defending, and thus have a chance to give up points (it's either Amir or Marcus on the court in these situations). I think this artificially inflates his net rating, given the small amount of minutes overall.

That's not to say I think it's a bad lineup.  I think it definitely has its strengths.  I just think that purely going by net rating might ignore a confounding variable.

Actually, while a fair chunk (14 minutes) of the 52 minutes that lineup has been on the floor has been in the 4th period or OT, in truth the largest chunk of the sample, some 31 minutes (i.e, 60%) has come in the _third_ period.

It's interesting to note that in those 31 minutes in the third period that 5-man unit was a ridiculous 122.7 ORtg versus a 104.5 DRtg ... based largely on Isaiah and Avery going absolutely nuts.   Isaiah's TS% in that sample was 71.7% and his eFG was 61.1% and Avery was at 73.1% for both TS & eFG.

That's basically skewing the entire sample.

This whole 'analysis' by Coach Nick is really weak.

I'm not saying that at some point KO might not be good enough where it makes sense to start him over Amir.  I don't see real evidence we are at that point.

[CelticGuardian]

No one was expecting KO to be a banger, but a guy with such a finesse game should be putting the ball on the floor more and start using deception and creativity on the high post or mixing guys up with some low block post moves.. but no! he literally just pump fakes into all of his offense sometimes with no defenders nearby. Couple that with all the times he gets absolutely ETHERED on post defense... is just gets really sad to watch, then I see that he's on my C's and I get mad.

[chambers]

It's a relatively small sample size of 50 minutes.  I'd also note that when KO is with the other starters, it's often at the end of games.  Many of these times he's being switched in for offense, so he's only on the court when the Celtics have the ball, and thus a chance to gain points, but off the court when the Celtics are defending, and thus have a chance to give up points (it's either Amir or Marcus on the court in these situations). I think this artificially inflates his net rating, given the small amount of minutes overall.

That's not to say I think it's a bad lineup.  I think it definitely has its strengths.  I just think that purely going by net rating might ignore a confounding variable.

Actually, while a fair chunk (14 minutes) of the 52 minutes that lineup has been on the floor has been in the 4th period or OT, in truth the largest chunk of the sample, some 31 minutes (i.e, 60%) has come in the _third_ period.

It's interesting to note that in those 31 minutes in the third period that 5-man unit was a ridiculous 122.7 ORtg versus a 104.5 DRtg ... based largely on Isaiah and Avery going absolutely nuts.   Isaiah's TS% in that sample was 71.7% and his eFG was 61.1% and Avery was at 73.1% for both TS & eFG.

That's basically skewing the entire sample.

This whole 'analysis' by Coach Nick is really weak.

I'm not saying that at some point KO might not be good enough where it makes sense to start him over Amir.  I don't see real evidence we are at that point.

So think about why Avery and IT are going off.
Spacing, driving and kicking with a 5 man perimeter lineup and ball movement.
When KO is on the floor with that unit there are 5 legit 3 point threats waiting on the  3 pt line when IT drives. It also makes it harder for help defenders to commit to help because horford and KO can both hit the 3 so they must be respected...leaving less opportunity to swarm IT and thus he gets more open lanes to the basket.

[saltlover]

It's a relatively small sample size of 50 minutes.  I'd also note that when KO is with the other starters, it's often at the end of games.  Many of these times he's being switched in for offense, so he's only on the court when the Celtics have the ball, and thus a chance to gain points, but off the court when the Celtics are defending, and thus have a chance to give up points (it's either Amir or Marcus on the court in these situations). I think this artificially inflates his net rating, given the small amount of minutes overall.

That's not to say I think it's a bad lineup.  I think it definitely has its strengths.  I just think that purely going by net rating might ignore a confounding variable.

Actually, while a fair chunk (14 minutes) of the 52 minutes that lineup has been on the floor has been in the 4th period or OT, in truth the largest chunk of the sample, some 31 minutes (i.e, 60%) has come in the _third_ period.

It's interesting to note that in those 31 minutes in the third period that 5-man unit was a ridiculous 122.7 ORtg versus a 104.5 DRtg ... based largely on Isaiah and Avery going absolutely nuts.   Isaiah's TS% in that sample was 71.7% and his eFG was 61.1% and Avery was at 73.1% for both TS & eFG.

That's basically skewing the entire sample.

This whole 'analysis' by Coach Nick is really weak.

I'm not saying that at some point KO might not be good enough where it makes sense to start him over Amir.  I don't see real evidence we are at that point.

So think about why Avery and IT are going off.
Spacing, driving and kicking with a 5 man perimeter lineup and ball movement.
When KO is on the floor with that unit there are 5 legit 3 point threats waiting on the  3 pt line when IT drives. It also makes it harder for help defenders to commit to help because horford and KO can both hit the 3 so they must be respected...leaving less opportunity to swarm IT and thus he gets more open lanes to the basket.

Or it's just small sample size, because both of those TS% would literally be #1 and #2 all-time for a single season.  I really like Olynyk, but he is not so good as to make IT and Avery literally the most efficient shooters ever.

[Johnny Mic]

Voted no.

For better and at times worse, Olynyk can dominate the game when he's out there. 

KO needs to get his turnovers down and his FG% up! 

Get the kid some stick'um or some of that KG powder 

[The Oracle]

No one was expecting KO to be a banger, but a guy with such a finesse game should be putting the ball on the floor more and start using deception and creativity on the high post or mixing guys up with some low block post moves.. but no! he literally just pump fakes into all of his offense sometimes with no defenders nearby. Couple that with all the times he gets absolutely ETHERED on post defense... is just gets really sad to watch, then I see that he's on my C's and I get mad.

These threads contain analysis that is almost as as bad as the game threads. 
1. The entire NBA is now a finesse game.
2. Putting K.O. or anyone in the low post is inefficient save for mismatches.
3. Pump fakes are a great way to get a defense off balance and create high quality scoring opportunities.
4. According to the NBA tracking data K.O. is not in anyway getting ETHERED in the post.  He has defended 28 possessions in the post this year, gave up 9 buckets and a total of 22 points.  This results in .79 points per possession, not remotely inefficient. 

It continues to amaze me how people refuse to see what is actually happening on the floor and only watch for things that confirm their predetermined bias.  K.O. rates out as a highly effective defender dating back at least to the 14-15 all star break. Offensively he is a huge asset to have even if he never scores a point in a given game due to the amount of space he creates, his ball handling, passing abilities and high BB IQ. 

[chambers]

It's a relatively small sample size of 50 minutes.  I'd also note that when KO is with the other starters, it's often at the end of games.  Many of these times he's being switched in for offense, so he's only on the court when the Celtics have the ball, and thus a chance to gain points, but off the court when the Celtics are defending, and thus have a chance to give up points (it's either Amir or Marcus on the court in these situations). I think this artificially inflates his net rating, given the small amount of minutes overall.

That's not to say I think it's a bad lineup.  I think it definitely has its strengths.  I just think that purely going by net rating might ignore a confounding variable.

Actually, while a fair chunk (14 minutes) of the 52 minutes that lineup has been on the floor has been in the 4th period or OT, in truth the largest chunk of the sample, some 31 minutes (i.e, 60%) has come in the _third_ period.

It's interesting to note that in those 31 minutes in the third period that 5-man unit was a ridiculous 122.7 ORtg versus a 104.5 DRtg ... based largely on Isaiah and Avery going absolutely nuts.   Isaiah's TS% in that sample was 71.7% and his eFG was 61.1% and Avery was at 73.1% for both TS & eFG.

That's basically skewing the entire sample.

This whole 'analysis' by Coach Nick is really weak.

I'm not saying that at some point KO might not be good enough where it makes sense to start him over Amir.  I don't see real evidence we are at that point.

So think about why Avery and IT are going off.
Spacing, driving and kicking with a 5 man perimeter lineup and ball movement.
When KO is on the floor with that unit there are 5 legit 3 point threats waiting on the  3 pt line when IT drives. It also makes it harder for help defenders to commit to help because horford and KO can both hit the 3 so they must be respected...leaving less opportunity to swarm IT and thus he gets more open lanes to the basket.

Or it's just small sample size, because both of those TS% would literally be #1 and #2 all-time for a single season.  I really like Olynyk, but he is not so good as to make IT and Avery literally the most efficient shooters ever.

It could be just a small sample size, but it's a pretty simple strategy that appears to be working very well.
If Bradley and IT get more room to move they are probably going to get higher % looks at the basket.
Right now, I think we are a better team with KO on the floor than with Amir.
Do you disagree?

[CelticGuardian]

No one was expecting KO to be a banger, but a guy with such a finesse game should be putting the ball on the floor more and start using deception and creativity on the high post or mixing guys up with some low block post moves.. but no! he literally just pump fakes into all of his offense sometimes with no defenders nearby. Couple that with all the times he gets absolutely ETHERED on post defense... is just gets really sad to watch, then I see that he's on my C's and I get mad.

These threads contain analysis that is almost as as bad as the game threads. 
1. The entire NBA is now a finesse game.
2. Putting K.O. or anyone in the low post is inefficient save for mismatches.
3. Pump fakes are a great way to get a defense off balance and create high quality scoring opportunities.
4. According to the NBA tracking data K.O. is not in anyway getting ETHERED in the post.  He has defended 28 possessions in the post this year, gave up 9 buckets and a total of 22 points.  This results in .79 points per possession, not remotely inefficient. 

It continues to amaze me how people refuse to see what is actually happening on the floor and only watch for things that confirm their predetermined bias.  K.O. rates out as a highly effective defender dating back at least to the 14-15 all star break. Offensively he is a huge asset to have even if he never scores a point in a given game due to the amount of space he creates, his ball handling, passing abilities and high BB IQ.

[dang], I had no idea Olynyk turns into Larry Bird everytime I look away...

[Rosco917]

Forget Kelly Olynyk, his game hasn't changed in 2 years. Kelly is a tease.

You'll be waiting for him to turn the corner for years to come.

 

[chambers]

Forget Kelly Olynyk, his game hasn't changed in 2 years. Kelly is a tease.

You'll be waiting for him to turn the corner for years to come.

Turn the corner? You mean like go from being a scrub liability on defense to becoming a very good defender in pretty much every defensive facet?

[jdz101]

I voted yes because amir johnson is a liability on both ends of the floor.

Id rather get a better option than both at the deadline though. Our lack of rebounding genuinely hurts our defensive numbers.