Smart is the key

[dannyboy35]

Smart and Brown are the two main reasons I am excited for this team.  Isaiah and Horford are the now and Danny may decide to build a team that way with an additional star but I think ultimately Smart and Brown are just as important here.

It would take an awful lot for me to go all in with Isaiah and Horford and deal Smart or Brown.  I think that isn't overly wise.

I like all four guys but I do agree with you a lot.

I think Brown can contribute more than people think this year because the things he will be able to chip in on right away are big needs for the team.  And of course Smart is ready to make a jump and he will have his chance.  I am very excited.  Really high on Smart and I see him making a big leap if he cleans up his shooting because everything else he does on offense is pretty underrated and I think his feel is growing by the day on that side of the floor.

This is the best part of having Brad Stevens instead of Doc who seemed fixated on running players into the ground. Stevens likes to see which players complement each other. As long as everyone on the bench buys in, meaning they are ready to contribute without notice, we are a very talented and stacked team.

If Rozier, Olynyk, and Smart are improved and Brown can give a gritty top three pick rookie year, add them to proven vets Isaiah, Bradley, Crowder, Amir and Horford, and we are a top team, period. Half of the rotation is probably wide open or competitive.

Smart needs to take more two pointers and drives to the hoop. He needs to let his offense come to him. It will be very interesting to see if he has gotten better at shooting. I am not too worried because he is good at free throws. I do think he is good at driving to the hoop, hitting free throws and still has an extremely high ceiling. I do take into account he is young and has had injuries. If Rozier has advanced to his next level, then we are in excellent shape. I didn't mention Jerebko and some other guys. Jerebko is an asset. I think Hunter, Mickey, and others are unproven and not worth thinking about unless they emerge.

I forgot Gerald Green.

We are stacked 1-15 as long as Young is waived or at least 1-13 and Danny has it set up so that over the next year or two there will be zero dead wood on the roster. That helps with trades and stamina.

Believe me, I would be ecstatic to be wrong but I just don't see what exactly people see on offense with smart that makes them think he's ready to make a big leap. I love the guy on defense( except point guards). Do you guys think he'll eventually be the starting pg? I just don't see the handle or quickness or decision making. Granted, if he can improve his handle a lot the decision making comes with it but he also has to be able to guard point guards. To me, it just doesn't look in the genes for him.
  As far as shooting, have we ever seen a terrible shooter become a good shooter. Good as in he's open and you feel "yeah he's gonna knock that shot down!"
  Maybe there has been. Maybe even plenty and I'm just forgetting them. There's nothing that would be more satisfying for me than for him to pan out. It drive me nuts how much the media on Boston kissed his tail and anointed heir to rondo when he couldn't even handle pg at summer league in his rookie year.

[dannyboy35]

Just the idea of green being a three point threat is nice. It seems clear we can't count on Hunter or young to be that this year. It's funny I said years ago that green would be a valuable rotation player in the future, just not with us. I feel the same way about young. I think he is an excellent shooter but i jut think it's gonna take him another 2-3 years and he'll be a good rotation guy for a team.

[CelticPride2016]

Good post.  On the Doc point, I would say I have become somewhat of a Doc defender on this board given the criticism and hate many can throw at him.  I think he's good but not great.  The thing that keeps him from being a really great coach is he is a method type of coach who gets set in his ways and system, over the best kind of coach in the NBA which adapts to their roster.  There have been a lot of successful, long time coaches that are more method than adaptable and they can do other great things for a team (IMO Doc's strength is as a motivator and manager of personalities) so I don't totally discount them, but I think it is not as good of an approach.

If you look at Pop, there's lots of talk about their "Spurs system" but in reality the team has gone from playing fast to playing slow depending on the make up of the team any given year.  There is a general way they play but they adapt.  I would say Stevens is very similar.  There was a question posed to him in the Chris Mannix interview where he was asked how he sees Horford fitting into his system and his response was, paraphrased, it's my job to work out a system around a talented player like Horford.  For him, I think it is defense first and hustle and then I could see him adapting anything else in the game plan depending on who he has on a team.

The combinations thing is a big example of that at play.  He tries to maximize players ability by controlling their weaknesses and strengths with the line up.  Putting Olynyk out there with someone like Smart who has shooting issues so there is spacing for example.

It's hard to gauge how good or mediocre Doc is and we all have our opinions. I lean to the side saying he lucked out. He had a few decent seasons other than that. The year after title #17 was epic for a losing season. He stuck it out with Rasheed and almost stole a title with him. He got coach of the year for Orlando.

The Clippers are stacked and now Doc has no excuses. He got greedy. He seems to have hurt the Clippers as a GM. Anyway, Doc is gone and left to the Celtics history books.

It looks like Danny has much better odds than Doc to get rid of the one trick pony label. Maybe it is almost time for Doc to quit and find the next title contending team looking for a coach a la Phil Jackson.

[CelticPride2016]

Believe me, I would be ecstatic to be wrong but I just don't see what exactly people see on offense with smart that makes them think he's ready to make a big leap. I love the guy on defense( except point guards). Do you guys think he'll eventually be the starting pg? I just don't see the handle or quickness or decision making. Granted, if he can improve his handle a lot the decision making comes with it but he also has to be able to guard point guards. To me, it just doesn't look in the genes for him.
  As far as shooting, have we ever seen a terrible shooter become a good shooter. Good as in he's open and you feel "yeah he's gonna knock that shot down!"
  Maybe there has been. Maybe even plenty and I'm just forgetting them. There's nothing that would be more satisfying for me than for him to pan out. It drive me nuts how much the media on Boston kissed his tail and anointed heir to rondo when he couldn't even handle pg at summer league in his rookie year.

Marcus Smart is a quality player. He has power driving to the hoop. He hits his free throws. He took too many risky three pointers. He is not a natural at shooting, but was Jae Crowder a natural? I guess Avery was always a good shooter. The bar seems to be Dennis Johnson for serviceable and hopefully clutch shooting. Maybe he got better at it over the off-season. He can pass. He can dribble.

Marcus Smart is much better than Avery who can't play point guard.

He might not be good enough to be a backup pg. That is what we will find out.

If so, then one of Smart and Bradley will have to be traded when the contracts get updated.

Isaiah has amazing job security, unless somehow Rozier or Jackson emerge.

Horford will be interesting. He is an all-star. Maybe he will take it up a notch. If so, we are up there with GS and Cleveland.

Maybe Isaiah will take it up a notch and become legendary. He already is to an extent.

Maybe some people will end up asking when did Olynyk get so good.

These are not big, impossible ifs. That is why people are still excited about Marcus Smart. He wins us games already and deserves the same three or four years most players get to figure out their games.

We need 15 minutes of pg. Isaiah can't play all game. Smart may or may not be able to handle it. It would help our chances a lot if he can. Otherwise Rozier is it or Jackson, in that it is a definite question mark without Evan still hogging the ball. I am staying positive. I think between Terry and Marcus, Isaiah will get his rest.

[Celtics4ever]

Marcus Smart is a quality player. He has power driving to the hoop.

The trouble is he can rarely blow by his man, when he drives.  I like him, he is gutsy but lets not get carried away here.   He has trouble because his first step is not the best.

[dannyboy35]

Marcus Smart is a quality player. He has power driving to the hoop.

The trouble is he can rarely blow by his man, when he drives.  I like him, he is gutsy but lets not get carried away here.   He has trouble because his first step is not the best.

He rarely ever drives.

[slamtheking]

Marcus Smart is a quality player. He has power driving to the hoop.

The trouble is he can rarely blow by his man, when he drives.  I like him, he is gutsy but lets not get carried away here.   He has trouble because his first step is not the best.

He rarely ever drives.

barely more than Miss Daisy unfortunately


maybe we should put Morgan Freeman out there with him 

[dreamgreen]

I'm not convinced Smart is the "key" and if he is and we are putting all are eggs into that than I'm worried. He could and should be better this year and I sure hope he takes it up a notch or 3. But to be honest I have more hope in Rozier making a bigger jump than Smart, in a perfect world they both take big steps, we'll see.

[timpiker]

I think it's a make or break yr for Smart.  I expect him to be much improved but if not, he's gone.

[crimson_stallion]

I love Smart.  Prior to the draft he was my favorite prospect after Wiggins, Parker, Embiid and Exum.  I love his grit, his work ethic, his swagger and his natural leadership. 

To be honest, I'm not that concerned with his PRA (Pts/Reb/Ast) numbers for next year. 

I'm not even that concerned about his three point shooting numbers - he wouldn't be the first PG who entered the league as a terrible outside shooter and went on to become a star (Gary Payton, Jason Kidd, John Wall, etc).

But there is one thing that I think Smart absolutely MUST improve on next year and that is his offensive efficiency.

* He shot 29%/26%/83% in 14/15 Summer League
* He shot 37% / 34% / 65% in 14/15 Regular Season
* He shot 48% / 23% / 53% in 14/15 Playoffs
* He shot 35%/28%/84% in 15/16 Summer League
* He shot 35% / 25% / 78% in 15/16 Regular Season
* He shot 37% / 34% / 81% in the 15/16 Playoffs

I don't think Smart is a natural NBA scorer, and I don't think he has to be.  He's got outstanding defensive instincts, he's an exceptional rebounder for a PG, and he actually has pretty good feel for the game on offense. 

He's got enough talent/skill IMHO to be a good starter on a playoff team...but it's not likely he'll ever become that if he continues to shoot under 40% from the field and 30% from three - especially if he keeps chucking up >5 three point attempts Per 36 minutes (literally half of all his FGA). 

If he wants to take a step as a player, he's going to have to improve his offensive versatility.  He can't keep depending so much on a broken three point shot, because he'll shoot himself out of the NBA.  He's got to work on his ability to score in the paint and from midrange.  Get the easy shots. Bring his percentages up.  Settle for threes only when wide open (with no better shot available) or when shot clock is winding down, otherwise always look for a better shot.

I'm happy for Smart to average 10 Pts, 4 Reb & 3 Ast off the bench this year, as long as he can do that while shooting at least 43% / 33% / 70%.  Not great numbers, merely just respectable.  I can live with that.

I can't live with another year of 38% / 27% / 75% type numbers from Smart, no matter how good his other stats are.

[crimson_stallion]

I'm not convinced Smart is the "key" and if he is and we are putting all are eggs into that than I'm worried. He could and should be better this year and I sure hope he takes it up a notch or 3. But to be honest I have more hope in Rozier making a bigger jump than Smart, in a perfect world they both take big steps, we'll see.

I do agree with this.

Much as I like Smart I don't think he's a game changer. He could be a really nice player though, but not a game changer.

Like you I have more faith in Rozier (taking that big step to stardom) then I do for Smart. 

[crimson_stallion]

Marcus Smart is much better than Avery who can't play point guard.

I think you're really pushing it there, to be honest.

Smart averaged 12.1 pts, 5.5 Reb, 4.0 Ast Per 36 Minutes last year (in his second year, at the age of 21) while shooting 35% / 25% / 73% with a 17.4% usage rate.

When Bradley was in his second year, also at 21 years of age, he averaged 12.7 Pts, 3.0 Reb, 2.3 Ast Per 36 while shooting 50% / 41% / 79% with a 17.9% usage rate. 

That's despite the fact that Bradley had far less experience by that time - he barely played his rookie year, while Smart played major minutes as a rookie and even started through much of his rookie year. 

There is definitely no evidence at all to suggest Smart is a "much better player" then Bradley was at the same point. 

From a talent perspective I think the two are about on par, but when you look at them in the context of today's NBA (which places huge importance on shooting, and very little on pure PG skills) Bradley has significantly higher value.

Smart may change that one day if he ever becomes an efficient outside shooter...that's yet to be seen, but it's certainly possible.

Another key advantage for Bradley is that he knows his limitations and, for the most part, plays within himself.  He takes shots that he knows he can make at a high percentage, and he doesn't often force complex dribbling moves or passes that are beyond his ability.  That is a good discipline to have.  Smart is fairly disciplined as a ball handler, but he takes far too many bad shots - something he has to work on.

People give Bradley a lot of criticism for his "shot jacking", but people rarely look t his shot attempts objectively.  AB is a good outside shooter, has a very good mid-range game, and has an excellent pull up jumper.  When he's "jacking" shots, those are the type of hots he's taking - shots which are (for him) fairly high percentage shots.  Shots he makes, more or less, in his sleep.  I can never criticism a player for taking shots they're good at making - that's a good shot, IMHO.

[alldaboston]

Marcus Smart is a quality player. He has power driving to the hoop.

The trouble is he can rarely blow by his man, when he drives.  I like him, he is gutsy but lets not get carried away here.   He has trouble because his first step is not the best.

Biggest reason why I'm gonna start the Rozier hype train pretty soon if Marcus hasn't developed as well as we hope next year. Frankly, Terry seems to have that "it" factor that Marcus doesn't have. As others have said, I think I have higher hopes for Terry becoming a star than I do for Marcus.

[crimson_stallion]

Marcus Smart is a quality player. He has power driving to the hoop.

The trouble is he can rarely blow by his man, when he drives.  I like him, he is gutsy but lets not get carried away here.   He has trouble because his first step is not the best.

Biggest reason why I'm gonna start the Rozier hype train pretty soon if Marcus hasn't developed as well as we hope next year. Frankly, Terry seems to have that "it" factor that Marcus doesn't have. As others have said, I think I have higher hopes for Terry becoming a star than I do for Marcus.

The way I see it is this (note: ratings are relative to the PG position):
 

Marcus Smart

Offense
* Shooting, paint: 4.0 / 10
* Shooting, midrange: 4.0 / 10
* Shooting, 3PT: 3.0 / 10
* Slashing: 5.0 / 10
* Passing: 6.5 / 10
* Handle, dribbling: 4.0 / 10
* Handle, control: 7.5 / 10
Total: 34.0 / 70 (48.6%)

Physical
* Height: 6.0 / 10
* Wingspan: 7.5 / 10
* Strength: 9.0 / 10
* Quickness, explosiveness: 5.0 / 10
* Quickness, lateral: 6.5 / 10
* Speed: 6.5 / 10
* Vertical: 6.0 / 10
Total: 46.5 / 70 (66.4%)

Defense / Effort:
* On Ball Defense: 8.0 / 10
* Team Defense, versatility: 8.0 / 10
* Team Defense, awareness: 9.0 / 10
* Rebounding: 7.0 / 10
* Motor: 9.5 / 10
Total:  41.5 / 50 (83.0%)

Intangibles:
* Clutch: 8.0 / 10
* Work Ethic: 9.0 / 10
* Discipline: 4.0 / 10
* Swagger: 7.0 / 10
Total: 28 / 40 (70.0%)

Total: 150.0 / 230 (65.0%)


Terry Rozier

Offense
* Shooting, paint: 5.5 / 10
* Shooting, midrange: 6.0 / 10
* Shooting, 3PT: 6.0 / 10
* Slashing: 8.0 / 10
* Passing: 5.0 / 10
* Handle, dribbling: 7.0 / 10
* Handle, control: 5.0 / 10
Total: 42.5 / 70 (60.7%)

Physical
* Height: 5.0 / 10
* Wingspan: 7.0 / 10
* Strength: 6.5 / 10
* Quickness, explosiveness: 8.5 / 10
* Quickness, lateral: 7.5 / 10
* Speed: 8.5 / 10
* Vertical: 7.0 / 10
Total: 50.0 / 70 (71.4%)

Defense / Effort:
* On Ball Defense: 6.5 / 10
* Team Defense, versatility: 6.0 / 10
* Team Defense, awareness: 6.5 / 10
* Rebounding: 7.5 / 10
* Motor: 8.5 / 10
Total:  35.0 / 50 (70.0%)

Intangibles:
* Clutch: 7.5 / 10
* Work Ethic: 9.0 / 10
* Discipline: 5.0 / 10
* Swagger: 8.5 / 10
Total: 30 / 40 (75.0%)

Total: 157.5 / 230 (68.5%)

Seems about right - very close overall with Rozier getting the slight edge in the end.

Edit
Please note - I haven't based these ratings on just stats alone due to the small sample size with Rozier.  I've based it on stats and 'eye test' (depending on relevance).

[dannyboy35]

I love Smart.  Prior to the draft he was my favorite prospect after Wiggins, Parker, Embiid and Exum.  I love his grit, his work ethic, his swagger and his natural leadership. 

To be honest, I'm not that concerned with his PRA (Pts/Reb/Ast) numbers for next year. 

I'm not even that concerned about his three point shooting numbers - he wouldn't be the first PG who entered the league as a terrible outside shooter and went on to become a star (Gary Payton, Jason Kidd, John Wall, etc).

But there is one thing that I think Smart absolutely MUST improve on next year and that is his offensive efficiency.

* He shot 29%/26%/83% in 14/15 Summer League
* He shot 37% / 34% / 65% in 14/15 Regular Season
* He shot 48% / 23% / 53% in 14/15 Playoffs
* He shot 35%/28%/84% in 15/16 Summer League
* He shot 35% / 25% / 78% in 15/16 Regular Season
* He shot 37% / 34% / 81% in the 15/16 Playoffs

I don't think Smart is a natural NBA scorer, and I don't think he has to be.  He's got outstanding defensive instincts, he's an exceptional rebounder for a PG, and he actually has pretty good feel for the game on offense. 

He's got enough talent/skill IMHO to be a good starter on a playoff team...but it's not likely he'll ever become that if he continues to shoot under 40% from the field and 30% from three - especially if he keeps chucking up >5 three point attempts Per 36 minutes (literally half of all his FGA). 

If he wants to take a step as a player, he's going to have to improve his offensive versatility.  He can't keep depending so much on a broken three point shot, because he'll shoot himself out of the NBA.  He's got to work on his ability to score in the paint and from midrange.  Get the easy shots. Bring his percentages up.  Settle for threes only when wide open (with no better shot available) or when shot clock is winding down, otherwise always look for a better shot.

I'm happy for Smart to average 10 Pts, 4 Reb & 3 Ast off the bench this year, as long as he can do that while shooting at least 43% / 33% / 70%.  Not great numbers, merely just respectable.  I can live with that.

I can't live with another year of 38% / 27% / 75% type numbers from Smart, no matter how good his other stats are.

I agree with much of this but I don't see leadership qualities other than admirable defensive effort.