Bragging rights, Predict Celtics Season Record

[jpotter33]

I predict that the Cavs will open the season against the Boston Celtics, and that the Celtics are going to spoil their banner night hehe. 

Followed by Warriors @ OKC in the double-header.

I think that was just spoiled with the report that KD returns to OKC in February. I bet we'll see some pretty "showy" match ups in the first couple of nights, such as GS @ Cleveland, Boston @ Atlanta, Chicago @ New York, etc.

[OhioGreen]

45-37

Actually think our talent level is slightly worse this year, with loss of ETurner and Sullinger.  I believe two of this seasons biggest weaknesses will be rebounding and a one on one go to scorer.  People forget how many games ET rescued us when we couldn't get any offense going(alot!) and were shooting horribly(alot!).  His ability to create was invaluble!
Rebounding is another whole story, as Sully was our only consistent rebounder against any and all teams!  He was special in that skill, and we have no one that can fill that void!  Horford has become a worse and worse rebounder from his earlier years when he wasn't so in love with standing out at the three point line hoisting 3's!  All our other bigs are very inconsistent on the boards.
I see these two things being very problematic for us, and hence the lower win total.  Many of the better teams in the east have gotten even better, so while I think we'll definitely make the playoffs and finally get to the second round, that'll be it!

[alldaboston]

45-37

Actually think our talent level is slightly worse this year, with loss of ETurner and Sullinger.  I believe two of this seasons biggest weaknesses will be rebounding and a one on one go to scorer.  People forget how many games ET rescued us when we couldn't get any offense going(alot!) and were shooting horribly(alot!).  His ability to create was invaluble!
Rebounding is another whole story, as Sully was our only consistent rebounder against any and all teams!  He was special in that skill, and we have no one that can fill that void!  Horford has become a worse and worse rebounder from his earlier years when he wasn't so in love with standing out at the three point line hoisting 3's!  All our other bigs are very inconsistent on the boards.
I see these two things being very problematic for us, and hence the lower win total.  Many of the better teams in the east have gotten even better, so while I think we'll definitely make the playoffs and finally get to the second round, that'll be it!

regarding the bold, i agree. ET will be missed on offense.

regarding the italics, i disagree. wasnt Al a much better rebounder earlier in his career because he wasnt playing with Millsap? i took just a quick glance at the stats (so correct me if im wrong) and Al's rebounding took a rather drastic hit after Millsap joined them

regarding the underlined, which teams have really gotten that much better?

Indiana clearly got better, I will say that

Toronto lost Biyombo and Scola, replaced them with Sully and Poeltl. Not sure if thats even an upgrade at all.

Detroit got a tad better

Atlanta gets weaker imo, lost teague and horford, replaces them with howard (i dont get that fit, yet), and jarrett jack (underrated signing but not exactly that great either).

Charlotte lost jefferson, lee, and lin, 3 key rotation guys. they get worse (but a healthy MKG helps them a bit)

chicago is possibly a lower seed playoff team.

miami had a bad offseason, we all know why

the bucks are a wild card, not a playoff team imo

Knicks, maybe a playoff team? idk

orlando, their moves were confusing, now they have a big logjam, but a lot of good talent there

washington, decent offseason, a healthy beal can go a long way for them.


none of the teams got that much better, besides from indiana and maybe new york (but theyre still not a threat)

[Big333223]

45-37

Actually think our talent level is slightly worse this year, with loss of ETurner and Sullinger.  I believe two of this seasons biggest weaknesses will be rebounding and a one on one go to scorer.  People forget how many games ET rescued us when we couldn't get any offense going(alot!) and were shooting horribly(alot!).  His ability to create was invaluble!
Rebounding is another whole story, as Sully was our only consistent rebounder against any and all teams!  He was special in that skill, and we have no one that can fill that void!  Horford has become a worse and worse rebounder from his earlier years when he wasn't so in love with standing out at the three point line hoisting 3's!  All our other bigs are very inconsistent on the boards.
I see these two things being very problematic for us, and hence the lower win total.  Many of the better teams in the east have gotten even better, so while I think we'll definitely make the playoffs and finally get to the second round, that'll be it!

ET was replaced by Jaylen Brown and Sullinger was replaced by Al Horford. Both are upgrades, I'd say. We can also bet on improvements from some of the young guys. This year's team is definitely more talented than last year's.

[max215]

45-37

Actually think our talent level is slightly worse this year, with loss of ETurner and Sullinger.  I believe two of this seasons biggest weaknesses will be rebounding and a one on one go to scorer.  People forget how many games ET rescued us when we couldn't get any offense going(alot!) and were shooting horribly(alot!).  His ability to create was invaluble!
Rebounding is another whole story, as Sully was our only consistent rebounder against any and all teams!  He was special in that skill, and we have no one that can fill that void!  Horford has become a worse and worse rebounder from his earlier years when he wasn't so in love with standing out at the three point line hoisting 3's!  All our other bigs are very inconsistent on the boards.
I see these two things being very problematic for us, and hence the lower win total.  Many of the better teams in the east have gotten even better, so while I think we'll definitely make the playoffs and finally get to the second round, that'll be it!

ET was replaced by Jaylen Brown and Sullinger was replaced by Al Horford. Both are upgrades, I'd say. We can also bet on improvements from some of the young guys. This year's team is definitely more talented than last year's.

I wouldn't say Jaylen is an upgrade yet, but a combination of Smart/Green/Rozier/Brown likely won't be a big drop off. Al, however, is what, 10-15 times the player Sullinger is?

[86MaxwellSmart]

51-31....ECF loss.

[OhioGreen]

I hope all the green koolaid optimism comes true this season, I really do!  However, saying JBrown is an upgrade over ET--come on, maybe in a couple of years, but definitely not right now.  I agree, AH is a much better player than Sully, but he was NEVER the rebounder Sully is, Millsap or not!  Just really worried about how we get the BB, and images of two and three offensive rebounds frequently for the opposition sticking in my head.
Anyway, was just trying to be as objective as I could on our record, taking off the green glasses!  Hoping JB turns out to be overwhelming ROY, and Al Horford MVP!  It could happen!

[Evantime34]

I hope all the green koolaid optimism comes true this season, I really do!  However, saying JBrown is an upgrade over ET--come on, maybe in a couple of years, but definitely not right now.  I agree, AH is a much better player than Sully, but he was NEVER the rebounder Sully is, Millsap or not!  Just really worried about how we get the BB, and images of two and three offensive rebounds frequently for the opposition sticking in my head.
Anyway, was just trying to be as objective as I could on our record, taking off the green glasses!  Hoping JB turns out to be overwhelming ROY, and Al Horford MVP!  It could happen!

Brown should only be replacing Turner's defensive responsibilities at most. The ball handling, and shot creation we will miss from Turner should be replaced by Rozier, Smart and maybe even Olynyk in the second unit. Even though Turner created a lot of shots for us, I think the team will benefit by replacing his 3 point attempts and long 2's with 3's from a better 3 point shooter.

Missing Sully's rebounding could be an issue, but I think the improved defense should at the least make up for the loss in rebounding. For every missed board, the team should force a bad shot/create a turnover that wouldn't have otherwise happened with Sully on the court.

It is making me a bit uneasy how high the predictions are from fans and media. The Celtics will have to have a great season just to meet expectations, which kind of leaves the team in a no win situation.

[Moranis]

45-37

Actually think our talent level is slightly worse this year, with loss of ETurner and Sullinger.  I believe two of this seasons biggest weaknesses will be rebounding and a one on one go to scorer.  People forget how many games ET rescued us when we couldn't get any offense going(alot!) and were shooting horribly(alot!).  His ability to create was invaluble!
Rebounding is another whole story, as Sully was our only consistent rebounder against any and all teams!  He was special in that skill, and we have no one that can fill that void!  Horford has become a worse and worse rebounder from his earlier years when he wasn't so in love with standing out at the three point line hoisting 3's!  All our other bigs are very inconsistent on the boards.
I see these two things being very problematic for us, and hence the lower win total.  Many of the better teams in the east have gotten even better, so while I think we'll definitely make the playoffs and finally get to the second round, that'll be it!

regarding the bold, i agree. ET will be missed on offense.

regarding the italics, i disagree. wasnt Al a much better rebounder earlier in his career because he wasnt playing with Millsap? i took just a quick glance at the stats (so correct me if im wrong) and Al's rebounding took a rather drastic hit after Millsap joined them

regarding the underlined, which teams have really gotten that much better?

Indiana clearly got better, I will say that

Toronto lost Biyombo and Scola, replaced them with Sully and Poeltl. Not sure if thats even an upgrade at all.

Detroit got a tad better

Atlanta gets weaker imo, lost teague and horford, replaces them with howard (i dont get that fit, yet), and jarrett jack (underrated signing but not exactly that great either).

Charlotte lost jefferson, lee, and lin, 3 key rotation guys. they get worse (but a healthy MKG helps them a bit)

chicago is possibly a lower seed playoff team.

miami had a bad offseason, we all know why

the bucks are a wild card, not a playoff team imo

Knicks, maybe a playoff team? idk

orlando, their moves were confusing, now they have a big logjam, but a lot of good talent there

washington, decent offseason, a healthy beal can go a long way for them.


none of the teams got that much better, besides from indiana and maybe new york (but theyre still not a threat)

Horford's rookie year his RB% was 18, the next 3 years he was between 16 and 16.4, he has just one other season above 15 in his career.  Sullinger's career average is 17.1 and is coming off his career best of 18.7 last season.  Sullinger's career ORB% is 11.5, Horford's career high his rookie year is 11.4.  The DRB% isn't quite as glaring, but still heavily favors Sullinger in pretty much all ways.

Horford at his best can't touch Sullinger when it comes to rebounding.  They aren't close.  There is a clear drop off on both ends of the floor in the rebounding department. 

The East on the whole is a lot better.  Taking Cleveland out of it since they are clearly the best team by a wide margin.  Detroit improved the bench and was on a 50+ win pace after Harris was acquired down the stretch.  Given their age, I expect them to be one of the top 3 teams in the conference.  Indiana is a lot better.  Toronto is still darn good.  Charlotte didn't fade much if at all, as Al Jefferson is a shell of himself and they get MKG back and replace Lin with Sessions.  Chicago should be better.  NY is better.  Orlando should be a lot better.  Washington's health is an issue, but if healthy are a solid team.  Atlanta should be right around the same spot replacing Horford with Howard and turning it over to Schroder (and I believe Howard/Milsap fit better than Horford/Milsap ever did).  Heck even Philly should be a much improved team (still bad, but not terrible).  Milwaukee still has all that talent, maybe they just needed the year to put it together.  Brooklyn will still be a bad team (but how much worse could they really be).  Miami is really (assuming Bosh doesn't play) the only team that you can say is a flat out worse team this year than they were last year. 

[Evantime34]

45-37

Actually think our talent level is slightly worse this year, with loss of ETurner and Sullinger.  I believe two of this seasons biggest weaknesses will be rebounding and a one on one go to scorer.  People forget how many games ET rescued us when we couldn't get any offense going(alot!) and were shooting horribly(alot!).  His ability to create was invaluble!
Rebounding is another whole story, as Sully was our only consistent rebounder against any and all teams!  He was special in that skill, and we have no one that can fill that void!  Horford has become a worse and worse rebounder from his earlier years when he wasn't so in love with standing out at the three point line hoisting 3's!  All our other bigs are very inconsistent on the boards.
I see these two things being very problematic for us, and hence the lower win total.  Many of the better teams in the east have gotten even better, so while I think we'll definitely make the playoffs and finally get to the second round, that'll be it!

regarding the bold, i agree. ET will be missed on offense.

regarding the italics, i disagree. wasnt Al a much better rebounder earlier in his career because he wasnt playing with Millsap? i took just a quick glance at the stats (so correct me if im wrong) and Al's rebounding took a rather drastic hit after Millsap joined them

regarding the underlined, which teams have really gotten that much better?

Indiana clearly got better, I will say that

Toronto lost Biyombo and Scola, replaced them with Sully and Poeltl. Not sure if thats even an upgrade at all.

Detroit got a tad better

Atlanta gets weaker imo, lost teague and horford, replaces them with howard (i dont get that fit, yet), and jarrett jack (underrated signing but not exactly that great either).

Charlotte lost jefferson, lee, and lin, 3 key rotation guys. they get worse (but a healthy MKG helps them a bit)

chicago is possibly a lower seed playoff team.

miami had a bad offseason, we all know why

the bucks are a wild card, not a playoff team imo

Knicks, maybe a playoff team? idk

orlando, their moves were confusing, now they have a big logjam, but a lot of good talent there

washington, decent offseason, a healthy beal can go a long way for them.


none of the teams got that much better, besides from indiana and maybe new york (but theyre still not a threat)

Horford's rookie year his RB% was 18, the next 3 years he was between 16 and 16.4, he has just one other season above 15 in his career.  Sullinger's career average is 17.1 and is coming off his career best of 18.7 last season.  Sullinger's career ORB% is 11.5, Horford's career high his rookie year is 11.4.  The DRB% isn't quite as glaring, but still heavily favors Sullinger in pretty much all ways.

Horford at his best can't touch Sullinger when it comes to rebounding.  They aren't close.  There is a clear drop off on both ends of the floor in the rebounding department. 

The East on the whole is a lot better.  Taking Cleveland out of it since they are clearly the best team by a wide margin.  Detroit improved the bench and was on a 50+ win pace after Harris was acquired down the stretch.  Given their age, I expect them to be one of the top 3 teams in the conference.  Indiana is a lot better.  Toronto is still darn good.  Charlotte didn't fade much if at all, as Al Jefferson is a shell of himself and they get MKG back and replace Lin with Sessions.  Chicago should be better.  NY is better.  Orlando should be a lot better.  Washington's health is an issue, but if healthy are a solid team.  Atlanta should be right around the same spot replacing Horford with Howard and turning it over to Schroder (and I believe Howard/Milsap fit better than Horford/Milsap ever did).  Heck even Philly should be a much improved team (still bad, but not terrible).  Milwaukee still has all that talent, maybe they just needed the year to put it together.  Brooklyn will still be a bad team (but how much worse could they really be).  Miami is really (assuming Bosh doesn't play) the only team that you can say is a flat out worse team this year than they were last year.

I agree it's a huge drop off from Sully to Horford on the offensive glass, but that change in personnel will probably lead to a shift in team philosophy, where the bigs shoot more 3's and crash the glass less. Not having Sullinger hanging around the rim to attempt offensive rebounds might actually improve spacing. So I don't see the loss in offensive rebounding to be a huge issue.

The defensive rebounding is what worries me.

As to other teams improving, it seems like other teams below us might have improved, but I don't think any team that finished below Boston last year improved to the point that they are now above Boston.

I don't agree about Atlanta being just as good. What really made their offense work was that most of their lineups featured 4 floor spacers and a ball handler. Howard is going to negatively effect spacing and Schroder is worse at finding open teammates in the pick and roll than Teague.

[Moranis]

45-37

Actually think our talent level is slightly worse this year, with loss of ETurner and Sullinger.  I believe two of this seasons biggest weaknesses will be rebounding and a one on one go to scorer.  People forget how many games ET rescued us when we couldn't get any offense going(alot!) and were shooting horribly(alot!).  His ability to create was invaluble!
Rebounding is another whole story, as Sully was our only consistent rebounder against any and all teams!  He was special in that skill, and we have no one that can fill that void!  Horford has become a worse and worse rebounder from his earlier years when he wasn't so in love with standing out at the three point line hoisting 3's!  All our other bigs are very inconsistent on the boards.
I see these two things being very problematic for us, and hence the lower win total.  Many of the better teams in the east have gotten even better, so while I think we'll definitely make the playoffs and finally get to the second round, that'll be it!

regarding the bold, i agree. ET will be missed on offense.

regarding the italics, i disagree. wasnt Al a much better rebounder earlier in his career because he wasnt playing with Millsap? i took just a quick glance at the stats (so correct me if im wrong) and Al's rebounding took a rather drastic hit after Millsap joined them

regarding the underlined, which teams have really gotten that much better?

Indiana clearly got better, I will say that

Toronto lost Biyombo and Scola, replaced them with Sully and Poeltl. Not sure if thats even an upgrade at all.

Detroit got a tad better

Atlanta gets weaker imo, lost teague and horford, replaces them with howard (i dont get that fit, yet), and jarrett jack (underrated signing but not exactly that great either).

Charlotte lost jefferson, lee, and lin, 3 key rotation guys. they get worse (but a healthy MKG helps them a bit)

chicago is possibly a lower seed playoff team.

miami had a bad offseason, we all know why

the bucks are a wild card, not a playoff team imo

Knicks, maybe a playoff team? idk

orlando, their moves were confusing, now they have a big logjam, but a lot of good talent there

washington, decent offseason, a healthy beal can go a long way for them.


none of the teams got that much better, besides from indiana and maybe new york (but theyre still not a threat)

Horford's rookie year his RB% was 18, the next 3 years he was between 16 and 16.4, he has just one other season above 15 in his career.  Sullinger's career average is 17.1 and is coming off his career best of 18.7 last season.  Sullinger's career ORB% is 11.5, Horford's career high his rookie year is 11.4.  The DRB% isn't quite as glaring, but still heavily favors Sullinger in pretty much all ways.

Horford at his best can't touch Sullinger when it comes to rebounding.  They aren't close.  There is a clear drop off on both ends of the floor in the rebounding department. 

The East on the whole is a lot better.  Taking Cleveland out of it since they are clearly the best team by a wide margin.  Detroit improved the bench and was on a 50+ win pace after Harris was acquired down the stretch.  Given their age, I expect them to be one of the top 3 teams in the conference.  Indiana is a lot better.  Toronto is still darn good.  Charlotte didn't fade much if at all, as Al Jefferson is a shell of himself and they get MKG back and replace Lin with Sessions.  Chicago should be better.  NY is better.  Orlando should be a lot better.  Washington's health is an issue, but if healthy are a solid team.  Atlanta should be right around the same spot replacing Horford with Howard and turning it over to Schroder (and I believe Howard/Milsap fit better than Horford/Milsap ever did).  Heck even Philly should be a much improved team (still bad, but not terrible).  Milwaukee still has all that talent, maybe they just needed the year to put it together.  Brooklyn will still be a bad team (but how much worse could they really be).  Miami is really (assuming Bosh doesn't play) the only team that you can say is a flat out worse team this year than they were last year.

I agree it's a huge drop off from Sully to Horford on the offensive glass, but that change in personnel will probably lead to a shift in team philosophy, where the bigs shoot more 3's and crash the glass less. Not having Sullinger hanging around the rim to attempt offensive rebounds might actually improve spacing. So I don't see the loss in offensive rebounding to be a huge issue.

The defensive rebounding is what worries me.

As to other teams improving, it seems like other teams below us might have improved, but I don't think any team that finished below Boston last year improved to the point that they are now above Boston.

I don't agree about Atlanta being just as good. What really made their offense work was that most of their lineups featured 4 floor spacers and a ball handler. Howard is going to negatively effect spacing and Schroder is worse at finding open teammates in the pick and roll than Teague.

Atlanta is an interesting team.  They got absolutely crushed on the glass on both ends of the floor last year.  They gave up a DRB% at over 80, which is just scary bad and their opponents got over 25% of the offensive rebounds.   Both are bad (especially the opponents DRB%).  Howard will correct both of those things significantly. 

I do agree that their offense will look different with Howard in the paint, but I don't know that it will be necessarily worse at least where Howard is concerned.  Losing Teague will be the bigger blow offensively.  He was actually their best shooter (yes Teague was better than Korver from deep last year) and he is a very strong pick and roll guy as you say, so they probably don't do that as much.  Howard though is still all time good in the post.  Even with his terrible foul shooting he still scored 1.627 points per shot last year, which is all time elite level stuff.  So the offense will definitely change with Howard, but it might not be worse, because Howard can still put the ball in the hole down low and can still rebound with the best of them.

I'm curious to see what Atlanta looks like with the changes.

[libermaniac]

52-30.  Lose to the Cavs in 7 in ECF.  One year away from the finals!

Missed it by THAT much.  I wonder if I'll be one off on the second part of my prediction as well ... e.g. C's WIN in 7! 

[libermaniac]

53-29

Nailed it!  TP.

[libermaniac]

53-29

Nailed it!  TP.

The following users all correctly predicted 53-29 and got TPs from me:

* NHCelticsFan
* Big333223
* max215
* SparzWizard
* saltlover

And honorable mention goes to BringToughnessBack who is mathematically challenged and predicted 53-19, and to CelticsJG who predicted "52-53 wins".

[NHCelticsFan]

53-29

Nailed it!  TP.

The following users all correctly predicted 53-29 and got TPs from me:

* NHCelticsFan
* Big333223
* max215
* SparzWizard
* saltlover

And honorable mention goes to BringToughnessBack who is mathematically challenged and predicted 53-19, and to CelticsJG who predicted "52-53 wins".

Awesome!  TP back at you for digging this up!