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Jaylen Brown is low-ceiling (in my opinion)
« on: July 10, 2016, 12:13:13 PM »

Offline yoursweatersux

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I've been looking through a lot of pro players' stats and comparing them to their college stats recently. I've found one trend that seems to be pretty consistent:

If you struggle to put the ball in the basket in college you're gonna have a rough time in the NBA.

Virtually every player's TS% drops from college to the NBA, and often significantly. There are a few exceptions to this trend, yet those exceptions are primarily spot-up shooters (which makes sense, as a clean jump shot in college is essentially the same as a clean jump shot in the NBA). Guys who made their living in college by getting to the rim or posting up seem to have a tougher time finishing over NBA defenders (understandably so), resulting in a hit to their efficiency.

That being the case, I am highly HIGHLY concerned about Brown's game translating to the NBA. Moreover, I'm not sure our offense can sustain yet another low efficiency shooter. Last season our defensive rating was good for 4th in the league, while our offensive rating was 10th. Can we afford to keep doubling down on guys who don't move that needle in the right direction? How is the offense going to look with both him and Smart coming off the bench?

If you look back, the championship-winning teams over the last decade have been loaded with shooters. In fact, I find that it's mostly lottery-bound teams who keep investing in these Giannis Antekoumpo types and praying that they turn into something. I'm not really a fan of "projects" since they seem to have a much lower success rate than getting guys who can already play (see: Curry, Steph... Thompson, Klay... both of which who were skipped over in favor of projects such as Tyreke Evans, Hasheem Thabeet, and Derrick Williams). Not liking this pick.
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Re: Jaylen Brown is low-ceiling (in my opinion)
« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2016, 12:19:11 PM »

Offline walker834

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Paul Pierce shot worse as a freshman. That worked out ok.  Pierce did stay until his junior year to get things right where Brown might take a bit, but college stats mean very little except that. Kawii leonard also shot worse. Some players are slower to adapt  for whatever reason.  Hield, Curry all took a bit in college. So did Dunn. 

Brown might take a bit longer but I don't know what that has to do with his ceiling.  He might not have the ceiling of Simmons or Ingram but they were picked higher because of that. 
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Re: Jaylen Brown is low-ceiling (in my opinion)
« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2016, 12:19:14 PM »

Offline aingeforthree

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How is a frosh season with only 25 mpg at 19 a sample size enough for the data found ?

You can't assume anything with his college stats. Not enough there
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Re: Jaylen Brown is low-ceiling (in my opinion)
« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2016, 12:20:40 PM »

Offline Chris22

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Brown is 19 years old and has played two summer league games, and Celtic fans are writing him off.
You have to love Celtic fans.
LOL
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Re: Jaylen Brown is low-ceiling (in my opinion)
« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2016, 12:24:06 PM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Well, Kris Dunn is going to suck as well then. You know, 47.2 TS% in his freshman year. By comparison, Jaylen Brown's freshman year was 51.8 TS%.
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Re: Jaylen Brown is low-ceiling (in my opinion)
« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2016, 12:25:04 PM »

Offline walker834

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I am loaded with ammo for posts like this lol. I've read enough posts in my years that can make anything seem true.
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Re: Jaylen Brown is low-ceiling (in my opinion)
« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2016, 12:28:05 PM »

Offline Bobshot

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Quote from: aingeforthree on July 10, 2016, 12:19:14 PM
How is a frosh season with only 25 mpg at 19 a sample size enough for the data found ?

You can't assume anything with his college stats. Not enough there

Big gamble for a #3.
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Re: Jaylen Brown is low-ceiling (in my opinion)
« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2016, 12:28:20 PM »

Offline Dino Pitino

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Re-run your stat search and limit it to freshman seasons only. Then see how Brown compares.
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Re: Jaylen Brown is low-ceiling (in my opinion)
« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2016, 12:28:39 PM »

Offline walker834

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numbers can be manipulated.  All I know is just looking at players and having a good head on my shoulders of what we need Ainge does some smart stuff.  I can look at this tape for 5 seconds and see Brown has talent.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMliYacBNZk

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Re: Jaylen Brown is low-ceiling (in my opinion)
« Reply #9 on: July 10, 2016, 12:30:25 PM »

Offline biggs

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Paul George

Position: Forward
Height: 6-7
School: Fresno State
Career: 63 G, 15.5 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.4 APG

Kawhi Leonard

Position: Forward
Height: 6-7 ▪ Weight: 225
School: San Diego State
Career: 70 G, 14.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 2.2 APG

Jaylen Brown

Position: Forward
Height: 6-7 ▪ Weight: 225
Hometown: Marietta, GA
High School: Wheeler HS
School: University of California
Career: 34 G, 14.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.0 APG

See any similarities?

Sounds like 15ppg is the magic #! 😃
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Truuuuuuuuuth!
Re: Jaylen Brown is low-ceiling (in my opinion)
« Reply #10 on: July 10, 2016, 12:32:46 PM »

Offline walker834

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pierce also fits into that list of sf's that got overlooked in college because they struggled at first. Bill Russell was not very good at basketball at first either.

There's a difference between real talent and guys who just can't play either.  Brown has real talent.
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Re: Jaylen Brown is low-ceiling (in my opinion)
« Reply #11 on: July 10, 2016, 12:50:13 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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If you watch the guy, you can clearly see that brown is a different caliber athlete than anyone esle in floor.  Very fast, quick twitch explosive, and a decent enough shoote at this stage.  Now, he is young, and he'll have to grow and put it all together eventually. 

But please, please don't compare him to smart.  Two completely different players.  Smart doesn't have half the tools that Jaylen has in terms of offensive potential.

And while 22 year old kris Dunn looks nice, let's not forget that jaylen is only 19.  I expect his biggest growth to occur between 19 and 22, by which time he'll fully mature.
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Re: Jaylen Brown is low-ceiling (in my opinion)
« Reply #12 on: July 10, 2016, 12:52:42 PM »

Online feckless

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Jaylen Brown is a19 year old who is used to being able to beat everyone with speed and athleticism.  He no longer can accomplish what he wants with speed alone.  With his tools if he works at his game, like PP, and plays a lot of ball he can become a very high level NBA player, but he has to do the work.  His work ethic is what is in play now--not some bizarre statistical analysis.
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Re: Jaylen Brown is low-ceiling (in my opinion)
« Reply #13 on: July 10, 2016, 12:54:31 PM »

Offline LilRip

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What concerns me with Brown is whether or not he has the basketball IQ to support his physical gifts. When the game eventually slows down for him, what will he be like?

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Re: Jaylen Brown is low-ceiling (in my opinion)
« Reply #14 on: July 10, 2016, 12:55:39 PM »

Offline Smitty77

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Quote from: yoursweatersux on July 10, 2016, 12:13:13 PM
I've been looking through a lot of pro players' stats and comparing them to their college stats recently. I've found one trend that seems to be pretty consistent:

If you struggle to put the ball in the basket in college you're gonna have a rough time in the NBA.

Virtually every player's TS% drops from college to the NBA, and often significantly. There are a few exceptions to this trend, yet those exceptions are primarily spot-up shooters (which makes sense, as a clean jump shot in college is essentially the same as a clean jump shot in the NBA). Guys who made their living in college by getting to the rim or posting up seem to have a tougher time finishing over NBA defenders (understandably so), resulting in a hit to their efficiency.

That being the case, I am highly HIGHLY concerned about Brown's game translating to the NBA. Moreover, I'm not sure our offense can sustain yet another low efficiency shooter. Last season our defensive rating was good for 4th in the league, while our offensive rating was 10th. Can we afford to keep doubling down on guys who don't move that needle in the right direction? How is the offense going to look with both him and Smart coming off the bench?

If you look back, the championship-winning teams over the last decade have been loaded with shooters. In fact, I find that it's mostly lottery-bound teams who keep investing in these Giannis Antekoumpo types and praying that they turn into something. I'm not really a fan of "projects" since they seem to have a much lower success rate than getting guys who can already play (see: Curry, Steph... Thompson, Klay... both of which who were skipped over in favor of projects such as Tyreke Evans, Hasheem Thabeet, and Derrick Williams). Not liking this pick.

Wow.  Brown should NOT have even been playing last night.  I bet his knee is 50% healthy.  Shut him down NOW!!!!

Why judge him when he was playing on ONE healthy knee??

Smitty77
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