Do you get the sense Ainge ignores external perceptions of draftees?

[LarBrd33]

I'm not bringing this up as either a celebration or a condemnation of Ainge's method.  I more just want to have a conversation about an observation I've had over the past couple years.

We, as fans, digest every piece of media we can find heading into the draft.  We scour multiple mock drafts trying to get a sense of draft pick consensus.  We read all the twitter rumblings and trade rumors to get a sense of who is desirable and what the market is after. 

Last year, Ainge "reached" for Terry Rozier despite the fact that mocks seemed to have him as a late 1st/early 2nd. 

This year, Ainge "reached" for Brown at #3 despite the fact that he was projected 7th/8th in most mocks and the buzz all surrounded multiple teams wanting Kris Dunn.

This year, Ainge also "majorly reached" by taking a guy projected in the 2nd round (Yabusele) at #16.

I think the initial reaction from fans is that Ainge made mistakes, wasted picks, or should have traded down to get his guys. 

The perception seems to be that Ainge just has his team rank players their own way and develops his own big board.   His team seemingly ignores what other teams/media claim is the best pick there.   

On one hand, I think this is great.  Ainge has nabbed some great talent later in the draft and it's probably a testament to his team's ability to mock out players.  It's great when they grab a Rajon Rondo in the late 1st round... it's just a little cringe-worthy when they reach for a guy higher than expected.  Double-edged sword, I guess.

What I'm curious about... do you think Ainge's team just ignores all outside influences and takes their guys?   Furthermore, do you think there's just a ton of misinformation and posturing out there intended to trip up teams?  Like, for instance, it's pretty likely that teams wanted Dunn desperately as the media portrayed it, but isn't it also possible that the Suns were leaking out this Dunn stuff with hopes that Boston wouldn't grab one of their targets at #3 (Bender and Chriss, apparently).   Isn't that likely?   

Does Ainge's team deliberately ignore outside opinions?  Do you think it's more because Ainge trusts his team over outside opinions - or because there's misinformation out there that Ainge tunes out?  Teams lie to each other.  Maybe people were telling AInge they wanted Dunn and he just didn't believe it, for instance.   Gotta sift through the lies, I suspect.

Thoughts?

[Who]

Of course. Almost all GMs do.

The ones that do not are not doing their jobs.

[wdleehi]

I think real GMs ignore the media mock drafts. 


They have to go with their board with the belief that there are other teams that also have the same players highly ranked. 

[LGC88]

The mock drafts are for fans, not for FO people.
If Chad Ford can cheat on his past mock drafts to make himself look good, maybe he received some $ to promote this or that players from certain agents. Who knows?
Also, mock drafts are based on info from all the scouts. Do you really think scouts will leak precious info, so their guy will be stolen by other teams?

I believe Suns could have take Brown.
I believe Thibodeau knows Danny too much and call him bluff that he would take Dunn. He knows Suns wouldn't take Dunn. Thibs get his guy.
so you trade down, and you are left with Muray or Heild and you get severely booed for the RIGHT reason from the fans because you didn't do your job to pick your player at 3.

DA pick his player at #3, simply the best decision.

[Celtics18]

Agree with above responses. I don't think GMs pick based on mock drafts and media speculations.  That stuff is for the fans.

[hwangjini_1]

I'm not bringing this up as either a celebration or a condemnation of Ainge's method.  I more just want to have a conversation about an observation I've had over the past couple years.

We, as fans, digest every piece of media we can find heading into the draft.  We scour multiple mock drafts trying to get a sense of draft pick consensus.  We read all the twitter rumblings and trade rumors to get a sense of who is desirable and what the market is after. 

Last year, Ainge "reached" for Terry Rozier despite the fact that mocks seemed to have him as a late 1st/early 2nd. 

This year, Ainge "reached" for Brown at #3 despite the fact that he was projected 7th/8th in most mocks and the buzz all surrounded multiple teams wanting Kris Dunn.

This year, Ainge also "majorly reached" by taking a guy projected in the 2nd round (Yabusele) at #16.

I think the initial reaction from fans is that Ainge made mistakes, wasted picks, or should have traded down to get his guys. 

The perception seems to be that Ainge just has his team rank players their own way and develops his own big board.   His team seemingly ignores what other teams/media claim is the best pick there.   

On one hand, I think this is great.  Ainge has nabbed some great talent later in the draft and it's probably a testament to his team's ability to mock out players.  It's great when they grab a Rajon Rondo in the late 1st round... it's just a little cringe-worthy when they reach for a guy higher than expected.  Double-edged sword, I guess.

What I'm curious about... do you think Ainge's team just ignores all outside influences and takes their guys?   Furthermore, do you think there's just a ton of misinformation and posturing out there intended to trip up teams?  Like, for instance, it's pretty likely that teams wanted Dunn desperately as the media portrayed it, but isn't it also possible that the Suns were leaking out this Dunn stuff with hopes that Boston wouldn't grab one of their targets at #3 (Bender and Chriss, apparently).   Isn't that likely?   

Does Ainge's team deliberately ignore outside opinions?  Do you think it's more because Ainge trusts his team over outside opinions - or because there's misinformation out there that Ainge tunes out?  Teams lie to each other.  Maybe people were telling AInge they wanted Dunn and he just didn't believe it, for instance.   Gotta sift through the lies, I suspect.

Thoughts?

if you are saying "ainge trusts his expert staff, his scouts, in person workouts, years of reports, and personal interviews more than the opinions of ESPN, draftexpress and nba.com", i agree.

and he should.

[LarBrd33]

I think real GMs ignore the media mock drafts. 


They have to go with their board with the belief that there are other teams that also have the same players highly ranked.

But we often get the sense that the media mock drafts come from intel from actual teams.   So if every other team supposedly sees Yabusele or Rozier as a 2nd rounder, wouldn't that mean Ainge could just trade down to get his guy?  Or do you think that when we read these mocks that have Rozier/Yabusele in the 2nd round, they might be entirely untrue and misinformation fed to the media?

[mctyson]

I think real GMs ignore the media mock drafts. 


They have to go with their board with the belief that there are other teams that also have the same players highly ranked.

But we often get the sense that the media mock drafts come from intel from actual teams.   So if every other team supposedly sees Yabusele or Rozier as a 2nd rounder, wouldn't that mean Ainge could just trade down to get his guy?  Or do you think that when we read these mocks that have Rozier/Yabusele in the 2nd round, they might be entirely untrue and misinformation fed to the media?

Media mock drafts do not come from that.  Save for Woj and Chad Ford, most (like Kevin O'Connor's) are almost strictly based on their own ideas of value.

Danny pays zero attention to this stuff, and that is of course the right thing to do.

[MBunge]

Last year Ainge decided to pick Rozier at 16 before most people had him slotted because he liked him and was afraid someone else would grab him.  This year he took a draft-n-stash guy at 16 rather than trying to trade down and pick up an additional asset.

I think both are a function of Ainge thinking he has a bunch of decent to good players and doesn't feel like he needs any more, so he just takes the guy he wants and doesn't worry about it.

Mike

[max215]

I would hope so.

[greenrunsdeep41]

You know who else disregards external opinion of talent? Hint...  He is the coach of that pretty good football team across town.

[bdm860]

I think real GMs ignore the media mock drafts. 


They have to go with their board with the belief that there are other teams that also have the same players highly ranked.

But we often get the sense that the media mock drafts come from intel from actual teams.   So if every other team supposedly sees Yabusele or Rozier as a 2nd rounder, wouldn't that mean Ainge could just trade down to get his guy?  Or do you think that when we read these mocks that have Rozier/Yabusele in the 2nd round, they might be entirely untrue and misinformation fed to the media?

I personally think a handful of teams feed things to the media, and a lot of agents do, but many teams don't.

I definitely think Ainge and his team don't play the media game.  I think I've read in the past that guys like Woj don't like Danny because Danny doesn't feed them any info or scoops while other GMs do.

What's really the point of any team leaking info on who they are going to draft?  I don't really see how any team could gain anything from that.  When you're playing poker, do you show your cards to other players?

We get the sense that the media mock drafts come from actual intel because that's just good marketing on the media's part.  It doesn't matter if it's Danny or Austin Ainge or some junior account executive whose not even involved in the decision making process, either way it comes off as a "a member of the Celtic's front office said that..."  Plus the media gets off easy, if we went back and looked at every major source's success rate on their "insider predictions", I think it would be pretty low, even guys like Woj.  They get a pass though, because they can just say "well things fell apart in late stages." and they're careful not to say trades are going to happen, just that teams are in discussions.

[Celtics18]

I think real GMs ignore the media mock drafts. 


They have to go with their board with the belief that there are other teams that also have the same players highly ranked.

But we often get the sense that the media mock drafts come from intel from actual teams.   So if every other team supposedly sees Yabusele or Rozier as a 2nd rounder, wouldn't that mean Ainge could just trade down to get his guy?  Or do you think that when we read these mocks that have Rozier/Yabusele in the 2nd round, they might be entirely untrue and misinformation fed to the media?

Not "entirely untrue," but certainly to be taken with very large doses of salt.  Unfortunately, we as fans don't know who is going to get taken where or by whom.  This gets proven to us year after year.  However, amidst our urge to be in the know, we fall for the mock drafts and the "insider reports" over and over again, year after year.

This year's draft was actually more predictable at the top with less surprises than in years past.  After the top eight, though, I don't think anyone knew what was going on.

[OHCeltic]

GMs see players and have more resources and time to evaluate them.

[LooseCannon]

Ainge can't ignore external perceptions because he needs those to evaluate trade ideas.  I suspect Ainge would be very above average if you asked all GMs to predict which teams will take which player.