Do we not have a realistic #1 pick on our hands for the 2017 draft

[byennie]

If brooklyn gets best odds, the odds are slim that the worst team gets #1 pick 3 years in a row.

25% regardless of what happened the last two years.  Didn't you study probability in HS? 

The chance of the same event (with 1/4, or 25% odds) occurring three times in a row is 1/4^3, or 1.5625%.

Go to Vegas. Bet the opposite color every time at the roulette table. After all, there's only a 1/2^2 or 25% chance that it'll be the same color twice in a row. You'll be a millionaire in under an hour.

I challenge you to do the converse: go to Vegas and bet the same color every round of roulette. After all, the odds are 50/50 every time the wheel is spun. You should break even and have killed a few hours by having a good time and attracting quite the following.

EDIT: if my up-too-late mental math is correct, the top odds in the NBA lottery winning three years in a row would be the equivalent of rolling the same color in roulette six consecutive times.

Yup, 4^3 = 2^6 = 64.

[crimson_stallion]

It's certainly possible, but I certainly wouldn't bank on it.

Many teams have got cap space this year which means there is no telling how free agency with turn out.  Brooklyn could make a couple of big, unexpected signings.  They could trade Lopez for a couple of prospects as a gamble, and those guys could turn out.  Anything can happen.

Really, all Brooklyn needs to do to hurt our chances is finish 5th or better - at the #5 spot our chance at a top 2 or 3 pick isn't that great.

[PaulP34]

Question is, if Brooklyn is the worse team by February trade deadline and the Kings and Cousins are not working out, would it be worth trading that swap for Boogie to get us over that hump as we make that final push to the playoffs ?

[MasterEmile]

Question is, if Brooklyn is the worse team by February trade deadline and the Kings and Cousins are not working out, would it be worth trading that swap for Boogie to get us over that hump as we make that final push to the playoffs ?

Really depends on what we do with this year's pick.
If we keep it and draft a young player, then it's better to keep next year's pick and build through the draft (kind of like Minnesota)

If we trade it for a player (butler?) Then of course trade it for cousins.

[Smokeeye123]

If brooklyn gets best odds, the odds are slim that the worst team gets #1 pick 3 years in a row.

Thats classic gambler's fallacy. The odds are exactly the same. Just because its happened an unusually high amount of times before doesn't mean it isn't about to happen again

[TheSundanceKid]

If brooklyn gets best odds, the odds are slim that the worst team gets #1 pick 3 years in a row.

Thats classic gambler's fallacy. The odds are exactly the same. Just because its happened an unusually high amount of times before doesn't mean it isn't about to happen again

Precisely. The events are independent of one another. The likelihood of the worst team getting the number 1 pick next year is the same as it always has been

I think next year Phoenix are gonna suck, Memphis and New York are serious blow it up options and depending on what happens in the summer Dallas, Chicago and LA will be down there too. Brooklyn is still gonna be bottom 3 I think. Memphis are the most likely to finish below them in my eyes. Conley leaves and they trade Randolph and Gasol while they have value