Chad Ford's Draft Tiers

[CFAN38]

This to me is always the most interesting piece Ford puts out leading up to the draft.

[max215]

This to me is always the most interesting piece Ford puts out leading up to the draft.

Yep, it's usually the most helpful. I think it's because it provides context in comparison to past drafts.

[mmmmm]

Thanks for posting this, Eddie20.

The tiers seem pretty much spot-on to me.   I might slide a player up or down here or there, but overall, this matches how I have them laid out.

[LarBrd33]

I've been waiting for this for months. 

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/16237240/ranking-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram-more-prospects-tiers-2016-nba-draft

Brief recap of what this is:

This is how it works: I talk with NBA scouts and executives to get a sense of:

• A. Which teams like which players (mock draft).

• B. What the consensus is among all 30 NBA teams about who the best players in the draft are (Big Board and Top 100).

To make sense of disparate rankings and debates over team needs versus best player available, the past few years I've chronicled a draft ranking system employed by several teams that have been very successful in the draft, what I call a tier system.

Tier 1:  This tier is usually reserved for guys who are sure-fire All-Stars or franchise players.

Tier 2:  Reserved for players with All-Star potential. However, players in Tier 2 often have weaknesses that some teams feel will keep them from being superstars.

Tier 3:  This tier is typically reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters.

Tier 4:  Players in this tier project to be starters or high-level rotation players.

There are years, such as 2013, that were considered so weak there wasn't a single player listed as a Tier 1 or Tier 2 prospect.  He had Tier 3 as Bennett, Len, McLemore, Noel, Oladipo and Porter.

2014, widely seen as a great draft at the time, had a total of 9 guys listed in the top 2 tiers.  Wiggins, Parker and Embiid in Tier 1.   Exum, Gordon, Randle, Saric, Smart and Vonleh in Tier 2.  And McDermott, Harris and Stauskas in Tier 3.

In 2015, only one player was listed in Tier 1:  Karl Towns.  Tier 2 was made up of Mudiay, Okafor, Porzingis, Russell.   Tier 3:  WCS, Hezonja, Winslow.

Obviously, this reflects how front offices/scouts see these guys heading into the draft.  Players can always exceed expectations or disappoint.  It does, however, give you a great sense of how these guys are seen and what kind of trade value the picks might have.   So here's this year's Tiers.  Not surprisingly, we're picking guys in the Tier 3 range.

Tier 1:  Ben Simmons

Tier 2:  Brandon Ingram

Tier 3:  Dragan Bender, Jaylen Brown, Marquese Chriss, Kris Dunn, Jamal Murray

Tier 4:  Henry Ellenson, Buddy Hield, Furkan Korkmaz, Skal Labissiere, Dejounte Murray, Jakob Poeltl, Domantas Sabonis


This confirms everything I've suspected about this draft based on what I've been hearing from people who follow this stuff closely.   Simmons is the only one who is seen as having Superstar potential.  Ingram is the only other one seen as having star potential, but not on the level of Simmons.  The #3-#7 pick range is seemingly made up of guys who do not have star potential... and Buddy Hield is seen as being a high level role player long-term (he's listed in Tier 4).

Again, just to reiterate, guys can obviously exceed expectations or disappoint, but this is interesting for sure.  Obviously, here's hoping we end up with a guy at #3 who ends up being a surprise superstar.

[LarBrd33]

Side note about our options in the Tier 3 category.  He says Bender and Brown both got Tier 4 votes... so I guess some scouts/front offices see them as more future role players than starters.  On the positive side,  he specifically calls out Chriss as someone who might have some star potential despite the fact he's listed in Tier 3.  So maybe Chriss is the wildcard option here. 

One interesting thing about this was a debate on this forum a few weeks ago where Buddy Hield was compared to Doug McDermott.  McDermott also stayed 4 years, won awards, and put up better stats than Hield.  I suggested that based on their College resumes McDermott might actually be drafted ahead of Hield if they were coming out at the same time.  My point was that 2014 draft was seen as having pretty good prospects... so perhaps the #3 pick in 2016 was comparable to the #10 pick in 2014.  Based on this, that seems to be accurate.

According to Ford and his sources, McDermott was considered Tier 3 prospect.  Hield is considered a Tier 4 prospect.  So it was a perfectly reasonable point to make. 

So based on this article and the concept of tiers, Hield would be drafted after McDermott. 

[kraidstar]

Side note about our options in the Tier 3 category.  He says Bender and Brown both got Tier 4 votes... so I guess some scouts/front offices see them as more future role players than starters.  On the positive side,  he specifically calls out Chriss as someone who might have some star potential despite the fact he's listed in Tier 3.  So maybe Chriss is the wildcard option here. 

One interesting thing about this was a debate on this forum a few weeks ago where Buddy Hield was compared to Doug McDermott.  McDermott also stayed 4 years, won awards, and put up better stats than Hield.  I suggested that based on their College resumes McDermott might actually be drafted ahead of Hield if they were coming out at the same time.  My point was that 2014 draft was seen as having pretty good prospects... so perhaps the #3 pick in 2016 was comparable to the #10 pick in 2014.  Based on this, that seems to be accurate.

According to Ford and his sources, McDermott was considered Tier 3 prospect.  Hield is considered a Tier 4 prospect.  So it was a perfectly reasonable point to make. 

So based on this article and the concept of tiers, Hield would be drafted after McDermott.

anyone who would have picked mcdermott ahead of hield needs their head examined. and that's not hindsight, it's just the type of players they were in college, and projecting those skills to the next level.


hield is a far more dynamic scorer than mcdermott was. mcdermott always struggled to create his own shot (like kyle korver). hield on the other hand has a better handle, superior footwork, and had the 4th-best FG% on guarded jump shots in the NCAA. he also has decent athleticism. his game will translate better to the NBA, he loves chucking it up under pressure, and at different angles.

for the record, i thought mcdermott would be a solid NBA player (not looking good so far) - but i'm far higher on buddy than i ever was on doug. hield will be good, maybe great. his confident shooting might carry him far.

i also think it's absurd to say that brown, dunn, murray, and bender don't have star potential. brown is an athletic freak with elite slashing and tons of heart. bender has potential for spooky levels of versatility. dunn is highly athletic and skilled - there's a reason so many teams are rumored to want him. murray's athleticism is a major concern, but he shoots as well an anyone, and is quicker and more versatile than a fellow "third-tier" guy like mcdermott or stauskas. in particular i won't be surprised at all if dunn or brown turn into stars. they are flawed, but they have great tools. i'd gladly take them over stauskas and the third-tier gang from 2014. i like them better than i liked some of the 2014 second-tier guys, too.

just my opinion of course.


one more thing... i disagree with simmons being a top-tier player. i love the athleticism, reflexes, and passing. but he'll struggle to score at the NBA level in the half court. he has poor offensive game when not in transition. guys are going to dig in and muscle him around, keep him off balance around the rim. aside from the athleticism and passing, i don't see the lebron comparisons (not saying you or ford are making them, just referring to the general media hype), his jump shot, slashing/finishing, and defense aren't anywhere near lebron's level. a better comp would be blake griffin,  but he has a long way to go to even get to that level.

[GC003332]

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=85249.0

A Chad Ford Draft Tier thread already exists

[CFAN38]

If Fords Tiers are to be taken as reality I want to point out the value they may be attainable with a Denver trade if they are really high on Bender.

The Cs could possibly work out a #3+#23 for #7+15+19

At #7 the Cs would then own the last pick in tier 3. If Denver takes Bender and a team with a PG need takes (either having the spot of via trade up) Dunn that would leave one of Brown, Chriss, and Murray on the board. Coincidence or not these are the 3 prospects most often associated with the Cs #3 pick. As I have posted in other threads having 3 picks in the teens should be enough to move back up. The target being to land one pick in Tier 4 (picks 8-14). At 8 its tough to project logic on the Kings franchise but one would think if they miss out on a tier 3 prospect they may want to drop back, add additional draft prospects and maybe a young  player (Rozier or Hunter?). A 8 for 15,16,19 could net the Cs Hield (if Chriss at #7), Ellenson or Poeltl  and put the Kings in position to fill needs with Balwdin or Jackson at PG, Luwawu or Prince on the Wing, and a big like Hernagomez of Bentil. At #10 the Bucks are a team that may want to move back and grab multiple players to try to fill a need like the Kings trading back and still landing a PG in Jackson or Baldwin may be a great move for them. They could then use the additional two picks to shore up their depth with players like Valentine, Prince, Bembry, and maybe take a Giannis like shot on a player like Maker.   

If this sort of situation plays out the Cs could be sitting at the end of the draft with a combo of

Chriss and Hield

Brown/Murray and Poeltl/Ellenson

to go along with a slew of likely draft and stash high value 2nd round picks.

This could very well be a draft that reinforces the Cs with crazy depth for years,

[No Nickname]

3 for 4 and 13 makes a lot of sense to me.  Keeps us in tier 3 with the top pick, but moves us up into tier 4 with 13.

23,31, and 35 picks all have good value in the tier 5 group.

This is a fun idea to play with as armchair GMs. Would Phoenix really want to give up the #13 pick just to move up one spot (let's say they covet Brown for this discussion)?  Who knows if Danny even wants Brown to begin with, and this is assuming Phoenix keeps their wish a secret. 

So maybe Phoenix just says no to the trade offer and rolls the dice that Danny will pick say... Bender. Phoenix then gets Brown and keeps 13.

If I were the Phoenix GM I'd lay all my cards on the table.  I'd tell Danny, "We're gonna wait and see who you pick. If you take a guy we like we'll offer you 4/13 for him. We just aren't going to give up 13 if we don't have to.  We also understand you can say no to that trade. We're willing to live with that. There isn't that much of a difference between the players we'd take at 3 and 4."

So then Danny has to hope he picks the player Phoenix wants to, while also making sure it's the player HE wants (BPA). If Danny picks Brown, then Phoenix would give up 4/13. And we could possible package 13/16 and maybe another pick to move up to 8.

If that doesn't happen I predict we're going to trade 16 or 21 to the Knicks for their 1st round pick next year. We have too many picks. They have none.

[CelticsFan166]

At this point, I think Ingram is Tier 2 with the rest of them. I just don't think he's that much better or has that much more potential than guys like Dunn, Chriss, or Brown.

Apparently, he's like REALLY, REALLY skinny - like two to three years from having enough meat on him to really be an effective player skinny.

You mean Tier 3 with the rest of them, then?

Yeah, my bad. Good catch. TP.

Or - actually I think you could make a case for all of them being in Tier 2 instead of Tier 3. I just don't think Ingram is that separated from the others, and you could make the case that every single one of those guys has All-Star potential.

If you read the commentary, it sounds like a few players (presumably Dunn, Chriss, and Murray, were right on the cusp of being Tier 2 players).  It's a voting system -- so if they have 9 total votes, Dunn might have received 5 votes for Tier 3 and four for Tier 2.

That said, it seems Ingram received only Tier 1 and Tier 2 votes, so there probably is a gap, in the consensus, which is what this is supposed to represent.  But I'd believe there are a few decision-makers who have one or two players in the Tier 3 list above Ingram.

And I'm praying one of them is on the Lakers or Sixers

[LarBrd33]

Hield is in the 4th tier.

If he drops to the back end of the top 10 Id love to see us try to trade back in and get him. No idea how wed do that tho.

hield as a 4th tier prospect means I was right - teams and scouts think he'd go 13th at the highest in 2014 behind McDermott, Harris and stauskas.  McDermott had a better college resume and was seen as a better prospect than hield right now.  So perhaps hield will have a McDermott-esque impact on the nba level.

These tiers also confirm what I suspected - the players available at #3-7 are seen as not having star potential.  They project as starters.  Only Simmons is seen as having superstar potential. Ingram is seen as having star potential.  The rest are expected to be starters at best.  Granted, they can exceed expectations, but that's the expectations.

Also, apparently the players from 13-35 are all pretty interchangeable role players.  Good news for our later picks, but it means just like last year we'd have a lot of difficulty trading up from #16.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Hield is in the 4th tier.

If he drops to the back end of the top 10 Id love to see us try to trade back in and get him. No idea how wed do that tho.

hield as a 4th tier prospect means I was right - teams and scouts think he'd go 13th at the highest in 2014 behind McDermott, Harris and stauskas.  McDermott had a better college resume and was seen as a better prospect than hield right now.  So perhaps hield will have a McDermott-esque impact on the nba level.

These tiers also confirm what I suspected - the players available at #3-7 are seen as not having star potential.  They project as starters.  Only Simmons is seen as having superstar potential. Ingram is seen as having star potential.  The rest are expected to be starters at best.  Granted, they can exceed expectations, but that's the expectations.

Also, apparently the players from 13-35 are all pretty interchangeable role players.  Good news for our later picks, but it means just like last year we'd have a lot of difficulty trading up from #16.

I mostly agree. But I've got Bender in Ingram's tier (not the consensus, but some GMs seem to agree). I also think that Murray in a guard's league could get into that fringe all-star range like Jeff Teague/Eric Gordon/Kemba Walker/Reggie Jackson.

Other than that I mostly agree. There will be a few Jimmy Butler types in this draft, but that largely depends on the team they are drafted to, so it's hard to pick those players now.

[LarBrd33]

Hield is in the 4th tier.

If he drops to the back end of the top 10 Id love to see us try to trade back in and get him. No idea how wed do that tho.

hield as a 4th tier prospect means I was right - teams and scouts think he'd go 13th at the highest in 2014 behind McDermott, Harris and stauskas.  McDermott had a better college resume and was seen as a better prospect than hield right now.  So perhaps hield will have a McDermott-esque impact on the nba level.

These tiers also confirm what I suspected - the players available at #3-7 are seen as not having star potential.  They project as starters.  Only Simmons is seen as having superstar potential. Ingram is seen as having star potential.  The rest are expected to be starters at best.  Granted, they can exceed expectations, but that's the expectations.

Also, apparently the players from 13-35 are all pretty interchangeable role players.  Good news for our later picks, but it means just like last year we'd have a lot of difficulty trading up from #16.

I mostly agree. But I've got Bender in Ingram's tier (not the consensus, but some GMs seem to agree). I also think that Murray in a guard's league could get into that fringe all-star range like Jeff Teague/Eric Gordon/Kemba Walker/Reggie Jackson.

Other than that I mostly agree. There will be a few Jimmy Butler types in this draft, but that largely depends on the team they are drafted to, so it's hard to pick those players now.

Bender is probably hard to evaluate given he's a foreign player.  Which is why some think he's a 4th tier prospect and you think he's a 2nd tier prospect.   If we end up with him, hopefully he's as good as you think he'll be.

[Celtics18]

Woo hoo!!!!!  Finally!!!!!!!

[A Future of Stevens]

Side note about our options in the Tier 3 category.  He says Bender and Brown both got Tier 4 votes... so I guess some scouts/front offices see them as more future role players than starters.  On the positive side,  he specifically calls out Chriss as someone who might have some star potential despite the fact he's listed in Tier 3.  So maybe Chriss is the wildcard option here. 

One interesting thing about this was a debate on this forum a few weeks ago where Buddy Hield was compared to Doug McDermott.  McDermott also stayed 4 years, won awards, and put up better stats than Hield.  I suggested that based on their College resumes McDermott might actually be drafted ahead of Hield if they were coming out at the same time.  My point was that 2014 draft was seen as having pretty good prospects... so perhaps the #3 pick in 2016 was comparable to the #10 pick in 2014.  Based on this, that seems to be accurate.

According to Ford and his sources, McDermott was considered Tier 3 prospect.  Hield is considered a Tier 4 prospect.  So it was a perfectly reasonable point to make. 

So based on this article and the concept of tiers, Hield would be drafted after McDermott.

I can't access the insider article, but someone in the other tiers thread mentioned that while bender got a few tier 4 votes, he also got a few tier 2 votes. Just not enough of either to push him out of 3. Can't mention one without the other.