Poll

What are the chances one of Simmons or Ingram drops?

>50%
1 (2.9%)
50%-30%
4 (11.4%)
30%-10%
6 (17.1%)
<10%
24 (68.6%)

Total Members Voted: 35

Author Topic: What are the chances one of Simmons or Ingram drops?  (Read 4133 times)

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What are the chances one of Simmons or Ingram drops?
« on: June 14, 2016, 11:41:27 AM »

Offline jpotter33

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It seems like everyone is reporting that Dunn is a highly coveted prospect, while it also seems that Ingram gets very little attention due to not being all that "sexy" of a prospect.

With the 76er's logjam at the 4 and 5 spot and Ingram not being the "sexy" pick, what are the chances one of Simmons or Ingram falls on draft night?

I've had this feeling for awhile that the Lakers are ultimately going to reach on someone rather than Ingram, similar to how they did last year with Russell. If they're ultimately looking to deal Russell, then Dunn becomes almost a no-brainer for them to take if they think he's a similar prospect to Ingram.

Would someone like Ingram falling and Dunn going number two help us in the trade market for the number three pick? Or are there more scenarios (like Philly and Chicago) where Dunn is the guy teams want at three instead of a player like Ingram?
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Re: What are the chances one of Simmons or Ingram drops?
« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2016, 11:43:44 AM »

Online Phantom255x

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I'd say 25% chance, but it's most likely Ingram. It's just hard to see Simmons fall out of the Top-2 (I'd give that a <5% chance). Ingram on the other hand has a shot at falling to #3.

I think there is a small chance which is why Ainge hasn't pulled a trigger on a trade and will probably wait until the Lakers select at #2 before deciding whether to trade the pick or use it (Ainge will definitely have a list of Plan A - Z on draft night depending on how it goes)
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Re: What are the chances one of Simmons or Ingram drops?
« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2016, 11:46:13 AM »

Offline Eja117

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I could easily see a solid 10% chance that Bender, Jaylen, or Chris beats out Ingram, and I can see an additional possibility that the Lakers have badly soured on DeAngelo Russell and want to ship him out and give Hield or Murray a chance to go with Jordan Clarkson

Re: What are the chances one of Simmons or Ingram drops?
« Reply #3 on: June 14, 2016, 11:47:56 AM »

Offline Donoghus

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10%-30%.

Not outside the realm of possibility that either Philly or LAL gets enamored with someone in that 2nd tier.  I think its a long shot and I don't expect it but it wouldn't totally catch me off guard, either.  See LAL last year with Russell.


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Re: What are the chances one of Simmons or Ingram drops?
« Reply #4 on: June 14, 2016, 11:48:47 AM »

Offline jpotter33

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I'd say 25% chance, but it's most likely Ingram. It's just hard to see Simmons fall out of the Top-2 (I'd give that a <5% chance). Ingram on the other hand has a shot at falling to #3.

I think there is a small chance which is why Ainge hasn't pulled a trigger on a trade and will probably wait until the Lakers select at #2 before deciding whether to trade the pick or use it (Ainge will definitely have a list of Plan A - Z on draft night depending on how it goes)

I agree. I can't see Simmons falling past the Lakers. But then again, I really do have a hard time seeing Colangelo taking Simmons at 1. If it was Hinkie, there'd be no question that Simmons is their guy, but Colangelo is more of a traditional basketball guy and understands the need for fit and a good mix of vets and rooks.

I still think we'd be in a great position to trade with them for the number one overall pick, depending upon what they're wanting in return. In my opinion, Colangelo wouldn't just pick someone like Dunn at number 1. He'd maximize his assets via other routes, while still getting his guy.
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Re: What are the chances one of Simmons or Ingram drops?
« Reply #5 on: June 14, 2016, 11:52:02 AM »

Offline droopdog7

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Less than 1%, close to 0%.

So Dumb and Dumber territory basically.

Re: What are the chances one of Simmons or Ingram drops?
« Reply #6 on: June 14, 2016, 12:00:48 PM »

Offline acieEarl

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If there's a chance one of those guys falls, then you'd think Philly or LA would work some type of trade, knowing there's more value in just taking one of the 2 and trading him for the guy they really want.


Re: What are the chances one of Simmons or Ingram drops?
« Reply #7 on: June 14, 2016, 12:09:39 PM »

Offline colincb

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<10%.

Both teams might like Dunn, but they're going to be reluctant to upset their bases.

Re: What are the chances one of Simmons or Ingram drops?
« Reply #8 on: June 14, 2016, 12:16:36 PM »

Offline footey

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Less than 1%, close to 0%.

So Dumb and Dumber territory basically.

So there's a chance??

Re: What are the chances one of Simmons or Ingram drops?
« Reply #9 on: June 14, 2016, 12:24:34 PM »

Offline Who

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I don't see anyone who has the juice to jump up ahead of Simmons or Ingram.

Bender may have had an outside chance a few weeks ago but it sounds like he is dropping rather than improving his draft stock.

Re: What are the chances one of Simmons or Ingram drops?
« Reply #10 on: June 14, 2016, 01:04:02 PM »

Offline saltlover

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If the Lakers had #1 and picked Simmons, I could see Philly going with Dunn at #2 over Ingram.  But Simmons is such a good playmaker, that should be their choice, and they should use some of their frontcourt to acquire more pieces for the backcourt.

I thoroughly expect Simmons to be chosen #1.  If for some reason he falls to #2, I'm assuming Ingram goes #1.  They play the same position, so it stands to reason if Simmons falls, it would be because the Sixers just think Ingram is straight-up better than Simmons.  I'd be very surprised, however.  Should Simmons fall to #2, I don't see the Lakers passing him up.

If Ingram falls to #2, I suppose it's possible that the Lakers like someone else more, such as Bender, Brown, or Chriss, but I'd find that unlikely.  If they did, it would make more sense to trade down a spot or two to pick up that player and acquire an extra pick (which I do think is possible given some of the players they've worked out who appear to be in the 10-20 range).  Dunn I feel makes little sense on a roster that has Russell and Clarkson, although they could move Russell.  Clarkson should be able to be retained on a reasonable contract, as he's a restricted free agent with only two years of service, which somewhat limits the offers he can receive.

Re: What are the chances one of Simmons or Ingram drops?
« Reply #11 on: June 14, 2016, 01:05:18 PM »

Offline Fred Roberts

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Don't see it happening, but I believe GMs understand that based on historical analysis, many of the best players coming from past drafts are all over the board . .. and that may lead to some interesting choices.

At 1 and 2, taking big gambles is unlikely.

Re: What are the chances one of Simmons or Ingram drops?
« Reply #12 on: June 14, 2016, 01:17:47 PM »

Offline jambr380

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I'm still a bit hopeful and I think Dunn would be the guy - either at 1 - less likely - to PHI (where he is an excellent fit) or 2 to LAL (where they would look to trade Russell). I think it's quite plausible that PHI and LAL engage in trade talks with Russell and Okafor as the main pieces and PHI takes Simmons and Dunn.

I do agree that it makes the most sense for either team to trade with BOS or PHX to get additional assets (#3 and Smart for Simmons, for instance).

Re: What are the chances one of Simmons or Ingram drops?
« Reply #13 on: June 14, 2016, 01:33:05 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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If the Lakers had #1 and picked Simmons, I could see Philly going with Dunn at #2 over Ingram.  But Simmons is such a good playmaker, that should be their choice, and they should use some of their frontcourt to acquire more pieces for the backcourt.

I thoroughly expect Simmons to be chosen #1.  If for some reason he falls to #2, I'm assuming Ingram goes #1.  They play the same position, so it stands to reason if Simmons falls, it would be because the Sixers just think Ingram is straight-up better than Simmons.  I'd be very surprised, however.  Should Simmons fall to #2, I don't see the Lakers passing him up.

If Ingram falls to #2, I suppose it's possible that the Lakers like someone else more, such as Bender, Brown, or Chriss, but I'd find that unlikely.  If they did, it would make more sense to trade down a spot or two to pick up that player and acquire an extra pick (which I do think is possible given some of the players they've worked out who appear to be in the 10-20 range).  Dunn I feel makes little sense on a roster that has Russell and Clarkson, although they could move Russell.  Clarkson should be able to be retained on a reasonable contract, as he's a restricted free agent with only two years of service, which somewhat limits the offers he can receive.

Same position? From everything I've heard, Ingram is a 2/3 and Simmons is a 3/4, with the 4 being the 4 being much more likely due to him not having a jumpshot.
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Re: What are the chances one of Simmons or Ingram drops?
« Reply #14 on: June 14, 2016, 01:51:15 PM »

Offline celticmania

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I think it's more likely that one of those teams ends up taking a certain player (Ingram or Simmons) and trading it for our pick and getting a little something out of us.  If they happen to really like Kris Dunn for example, in order to justify that pick, they would probably ask for a future first or something if they would take Dunn anyways.