Buddy Hield, per source, hit 85 of 100 3's in front of Celtics brass today

[celts55]

I guess what I don't understand is, he improved tremendously between his Junior and senior seasons. As he's 22 now I assume he was 21 than. From everything I have read or hear, he is an incredibly hard worker. 
So can one get better at 21 and not 22? Is 22 the maximum age for improvement? I'm thinking if he continues to retain the same work ethic, there is no reason he couldn't be a great player in a few more years. So say by the time he's 25, he's a star. He still has quite a few years ahead of him.
So I don't really understand the advantage of drafting a 19 year old over someone 22.

I understand the advantage because there's generally more room for growth and a longer possible career out of the 19 year old. The law of averages typically states that you're better off with a young player than an older one in the top 10 of the draft. However there are exceptions and Hield is athletic enough, driven enough and skilled enough to be one of those exceptions. Also, I agree with your premise that there's no reason that he can't improve from 21 to 22 to 23. Typically the peak for players is 24-27 years old so Hield still has ample room for growth.

I'm not saying he's the best pick at #3 but I wouldn't cry if he was.

I see what you're saying, but to me, it shows me a lot that Buddy did improve every year. Shows me he has the right attitude and work ethic to continue to get better.
Now take a freshman like Murray, he hasn't shown that he has the same kind of work ethic, as he's hasn't gotten the opportunity yet. We can assume he will continue to improve, but maybe he's not that hard a worker? Not pointing at Murray, just using him as an example. I mean the other day he said he believes he's the best player int he draft. Maybe, that could mean he thinks he's so good he doesn't need to work as hard to get better.
Just a thought.

[MBunge]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the theory being advanced is that anyone who is any good leaves college early and guys who stay, like Buddy, only look good because they're competing against inferior competition.  So let's go back and look at all the guys from Buddy Hield's freshman class who came out and got drafted in the first round in 2013.  All these guys were supposedly better NBA prospects than Buddy as freshmen so the theory goes they should have been better than him as seniors and look like MUCH better NBA prospects now.

#1 - Anthony Bennett
#6 - Nerlens Noel
#7 - Ben McLemore
#12 - Steven Adams
#14 - Shabazz Muhammad
#29 - Archie Goodwin

Besides Noel, anybody think any of those guys would have been dramatically better as seniors than Buddy?  Would you draft them today over Brown or Murray or Chriss? Anybody want to trade the #3 straight up for Adams or Shabazz?

Mike

It's a pretty stupid assumption.  There's also not an "either or" answer to it.

Simply put, some guys may have been better served to spend their sophomore, junior, even senior years in college.  Working on their games at a level that was more suited to them at the time.  Fine tune their game and allowing them to develop an edge  Maybe going one & done would've led them to jump to the league and then let their confidence & basketball habits erode while they were coming off the bench or even languishing at the end of the bench.

On the flip side, you have some guys that were clearly ready and sophomore/junior/senior years would've really served no purpose to them whatsoever.   These guys are ready to step in at day one in the NBA.

It's case by case.  It's really not difficult to see at all.

1.  It actually is difficult to see.  That's why NBA teams miss on lottery picks all the time.

2.  The prejudice against upperclassman being advanced in this and other draft threads is the exact opposite of " case by case."  I don't have a problem if someone wants to argue for Murray over Hield.  That argument needs to be more than just 19 vs. 22.

Mike

[Donoghus]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the theory being advanced is that anyone who is any good leaves college early and guys who stay, like Buddy, only look good because they're competing against inferior competition.  So let's go back and look at all the guys from Buddy Hield's freshman class who came out and got drafted in the first round in 2013.  All these guys were supposedly better NBA prospects than Buddy as freshmen so the theory goes they should have been better than him as seniors and look like MUCH better NBA prospects now.

#1 - Anthony Bennett
#6 - Nerlens Noel
#7 - Ben McLemore
#12 - Steven Adams
#14 - Shabazz Muhammad
#29 - Archie Goodwin

Besides Noel, anybody think any of those guys would have been dramatically better as seniors than Buddy?  Would you draft them today over Brown or Murray or Chriss? Anybody want to trade the #3 straight up for Adams or Shabazz?

Mike

It's a pretty stupid assumption.  There's also not an "either or" answer to it.

Simply put, some guys may have been better served to spend their sophomore, junior, even senior years in college.  Working on their games at a level that was more suited to them at the time.  Fine tune their game and allowing them to develop an edge  Maybe going one & done would've led them to jump to the league and then let their confidence & basketball habits erode while they were coming off the bench or even languishing at the end of the bench.

On the flip side, you have some guys that were clearly ready and sophomore/junior/senior years would've really served no purpose to them whatsoever.   These guys are ready to step in at day one in the NBA.

It's case by case.  It's really not difficult to see at all.

1.  It actually is difficult to see.  That's why NBA teams miss on lottery picks all the time.

2.  The prejudice against upperclassman being advanced in this and other draft threads is the exact opposite of " case by case."  I don't have a problem if someone wants to argue for Murray over Hield.  That argument needs to be more than just 19 vs. 22.

Mike

The case by case was in reference to this idea of one & dones vs. upperclassman.   There is no clear cut answer in a general discussion.  People around here are throwing around too many generalizations when the reality is that there is no clear cut answer one way or another. 

I think we're in agreement that just 19 v. 22 is stupid.

[YeezusChrist]

I feel Hield has to be the pick at 3 unless Danny can get 4 and 13 out of Phoenix for #3 but then Buddy would be #4.

This guy is a great scorer, the best 3 point shooter in this draft, is above average on defense, has great hustle, is a leader, great competitor, doesn't shy away from the spotlight, the hardest working person in the draft, and has the highest character i've seen out of a draft prospect in a long time.

The things in bold are the exact things we need and the type of player every team is looking for!!

Here are 2 games that show off his potential
Kansas v Oklahoma
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8uK4EwZfZ1s
The game that put him on my radar       
LSU v Oklahoma
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMSFYVKH1rY

In these games he scores with hands in his face, creating some shots, and driving to the basket very strong. But he also showcases his passing ability which isn't mentioned much but he looks very capable. He also shows that he needs to work on his defense a little more but he has the tools to be a good defender in the NBA.

A common knock on him is that he can't create his own shot and we'll have to see if he can improve on that but our offense isn't run on isos we play team basketball with a lot of passes and screens!! AB gets open shots all game from running off ball screen, now just imagine Hield there who is a much better shooter or imagine IT/ Smart collapsing the defense while Buddy sets up for the 3.
Buddy can also drive the ball and finish through contact and I think he'll get even better at this in his first year into the league because idk if it's just me but he is looking a little bigger and more cut in his recent scouting video below. So he's already in the gym trying to strengthen up to finish against stronger players.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Buddy-Hield-58749/

He may be 22 but he could be the next Dame especially in our system but I do believe somebody has to go out of IT, AB, MS because Marcus can't play the 3 for many minutes he has shown this a few times last season when Crowder went down he just doesn't have the strength to hold off a 3 the whole game but he can guard them in spurts. So as I said in a past post I think AB will be the odd man out.

[chambers]

Here are some questions you need to ask yourself when looking at a player.

Will their current game translate in the NBA? Why will it translate or why not?
If they are a 'potential' guy, how much better can they get and what is your reasoning behind your thoughts? What have they shown that hints at a star worthy attribute somewhere in the near future?
For Bender, it's his agility and versatility. For Hield it's his scoring and general 'I'm the man' mentality. For Murray it's his ability to score around the perimeter get to his spot with ease.
How much better can they get and do their physical and mental attributes support this idea?

[LarBrd33]

How on Earth can Larry Bird have been a great freshman if his freshman year he got intimidated by the Hoosiers and left campus without even telling his coach?

I get that Bobby Knight has that affect on people, but I think at best we're talking about a player that would have come off as Adam Morrison/Kelly Olynyk/Royce White

And technically there is not exactly $125million on the line. The kid that comes out today and is drafted first gets a two year minimum deal for $5mill per and then gets another contract with a shoe company for another few mill. They don't break the bank their first day. The money comes after being successful.

Some of these players were happy to come out early and get picked late (Perk, Rashard Lewis), but some realized "Hmmm.....if I stay in school I can raise my draft stock" and stayed a few years.....Steph Curry, Hasheem Thabeet, Marcus Smart, Willy Cauley Stein, Victor Oladipo, Damian Lillard, Kemba Walker, Evan Turner, Al Horford, Joacim Noah

There are plenty of upperclassmen that fail to become great, but there are tons of freshmen that don't do anything either. Tons of these freshmen have to spend years in the NBDL or just never get good or get good for another team. It might make sense to pick a guy that has dominated college with an nba skill that is ready to go today with a defined role.

Eja, I don't think you're understanding my point.   Larry Bird in 1973 was a phenom high school player.   It wasn't until 1975 that the first players jumped directly from high school to the pros after a Supreme Court decision gave players the opportunity to enter the NBA Draft without four years of college, provided they could give evidence of hardship to the NBA office.   So the point is, when Bird reached high school, the option to the enter the NBA without 4 years of College wasn't even there.  You also understand it was an entirely different culture, right?  NBA teams weren't worth 2 billion dollars.  There weren't 100 million dollar shoe contracts being dolled out to high schoolers.  There wasn't multi billion dollar television deals - in the 1980s they were still showing playoff games on tape delay.   Players were making I think on average about $30,000 in the mid 70s.  There wasn't an entire network of global scouting organizations keeping tabs on high schoolers.  There wasn't national tours for high schoolers.  McDonalds All American designation didn't exist until after Bird graduated.  There wasn't billion dollar television contracts for College games.  The first March Madness bracket pool didn't even happen until the late 70s. 

If you're going to ask the question, "Would Bird have stayed 4 years if he was coming out today" you have to play by the rules of your premise.   We have to make the following assumptions:

#1 - Larry Bird was a transcendent player.  Top 5 of all time.  He was dominant in high school and highly recruited - originally ending up in a major program.  He was dominant immediately when playing on the COllege level.  It's a known fact he would have gone 1st had he left College early.  This is an important assumption, because one could make the case that alt-universe Larry Bird growing up in the mid 00s would not have had the same level of hardship to force him to obsessively play basketball as an escape.  But I assume we're making the assumption that Larry Bird as a transcendent player carries over to this dumb hypothetical.

#2 - We're operating in an alt-universe where Bird comes out in 2016

So based on these two assumptions, Bird's modern equivalent is I guess LeBron James.  Transcendent otherworldly talent.  LeBron got a 100 million dollar contract from Nike before even stepping on an NBA court.  And if Bird was coming out in 2016, we can also assume he was attending high school from 2012-16.   (I'm bolding that, because I feel like that's the part that you're having trouble grasping.  Alt universes are a tricky concept.  Ever read the comicbook where Superman lands in USSR instead of USA?  Doesn't work out so well.)  Alt-Universe Larry Bird wouldn't have flown under the radar in some po-dunk town.  We know about prospects in 3rd world countries these days several years before they enter the NBA.  Even if Bird didn't transfer to an Oak HIll, he would still have traveled nationally as a kid.   We have mock drafts and consensus top picks for draft classes 2-3 years out.  We would have known about Bird several years before he even graduated.  His dirt poor family (parents divorced when he was in high school and father killed himself in 1975) would have been keenly aware of the opportunities awaiting Larry Bird in the modern basketball landscape.  Prospects on the level of Larry Bird are essentially human lottery tickets these days.  How many stories have you heard these days about families from the projects/ghetto riding on their meal tickets' coattails?   

Side note:  One of the major reasons Bird left Bobby Knight's program was that he couldn't afford College even with his scholarship.  He was completely broke.  These days they obviously have (some controversial) systems and programs in place to help a top level recruit afford College in spite of coming from poverty. 

The people surrounding alt-universe Larry Bird would not allow him to pass up guaranteed multi-millions to risk injury for a low level college basketball program.   That just does not happen these days.   And this is partially why there is a push to force the NBA to have an age restriction - 2016 College basketball is a joke.

So no, do not compare "Senior Larry Bird" (who would have been drafted #1 after a single season of College basketball) to Buddy Hield (who would not have been drafted as a freshman, might not have been drafted as a Sophomore, and was a borderline first rounder as Junior).   Had Hield come out last year, there's a chance he would have gone in the 2nd round and not received a guaranteed contract.  Staying in College an extra year benefited him, because he improved, had a major experience advantage, and had great surrounding shooters that possibly inflated his (potentially flukey) shooting percentages (keep in mind his 3P% dropped between Sophomore and Junior years... doubtful he shoots 46% from three next year).

It's a ridiculous comparison that doesn't take into account any context surrounding Bird's 3 years of College ball vs Hield's 4 years.  Comparing them makes no sense whatsoever.

If you want to dig deep to find an example of a 4 year College player who was drafted in the lotto and made an all-star team, the two options are Damian Lillard (who would have come out after a strong Junior season, but got injured 10 games into the season and got a redshirt junior designation... technically he was a Junior when he entered the NBA) or Brandon Roy.    Nobody else. 

Brandon Roy happened a decade ago.  So maybe it's a once in a decade thing.  Maybe Hield will be the next flukey Senior drafted in the lotto to have a decent career like Brandon Roy.

[Celtics18]

How on Earth can Larry Bird have been a great freshman if his freshman year he got intimidated by the Hoosiers and left campus without even telling his coach?

I get that Bobby Knight has that affect on people, but I think at best we're talking about a player that would have come off as Adam Morrison/Kelly Olynyk/Royce White

And technically there is not exactly $125million on the line. The kid that comes out today and is drafted first gets a two year minimum deal for $5mill per and then gets another contract with a shoe company for another few mill. They don't break the bank their first day. The money comes after being successful.

Some of these players were happy to come out early and get picked late (Perk, Rashard Lewis), but some realized "Hmmm.....if I stay in school I can raise my draft stock" and stayed a few years.....Steph Curry, Hasheem Thabeet, Marcus Smart, Willy Cauley Stein, Victor Oladipo, Damian Lillard, Kemba Walker, Evan Turner, Al Horford, Joacim Noah

There are plenty of upperclassmen that fail to become great, but there are tons of freshmen that don't do anything either. Tons of these freshmen have to spend years in the NBDL or just never get good or get good for another team. It might make sense to pick a guy that has dominated college with an nba skill that is ready to go today with a defined role.

Eja, I don't think you're understanding my point.   Larry Bird in 1973 was a phenom high school player.   It wasn't until 1975 that the first players jumped directly from high school to the pros after a Supreme Court decision gave players the opportunity to enter the NBA Draft without four years of college, provided they could give evidence of hardship to the NBA office.   So the point is, when Bird reached high school, the option to the enter the NBA without 4 years of College wasn't even there.  You also understand it was an entirely different culture, right?  NBA teams weren't worth 2 billion dollars.  There weren't 100 million dollar shoe contracts being dolled out to high schoolers.  There wasn't multi billion dollar television deals - in the 1980s they were still showing playoff games on tape delay.   Players were making I think on average about $30,000 in the mid 70s.  There wasn't an entire network of global scouting organizations keeping tabs on high schoolers.  There wasn't national tours for high schoolers.  McDonalds All American designation didn't exist until after Bird graduated.  There wasn't billion dollar television contracts for College games.  The first March Madness bracket pool didn't even happen until the late 70s. 

If you're going to ask the question, "Would Bird have stayed 4 years if he was coming out today" you have to play by the rules of your premise.   We have to make the following assumptions:

#1 - Larry Bird was a transcendent player.  Top 5 of all time.  He was dominant in high school and highly recruited - originally ending up in a major program.  He was dominant immediately when playing on the COllege level.  It's a known fact he would have gone 1st had he left College early.  This is an important assumption, because one could make the case that alt-universe Larry Bird growing up in the mid 00s would not have had the same level of hardship to force him to obsessively play basketball as an escape.  But I assume we're making the assumption that Larry Bird as a transcendent player carries over to this dumb hypothetical.

#2 - We're operating in an alt-universe where Bird comes out in 2016

So based on these two assumptions, Bird's modern equivalent is I guess LeBron James.  Transcendent otherworldly talent.  LeBron got a 100 million dollar contract from Nike before even stepping on an NBA court.  And if Bird was coming out in 2016, we can also assume he was attending high school from 2012-16.   (I'm bolding that, because I feel like that's the part that you're having trouble grasping.  Alt universes are a tricky concept.  Ever read the comicbook where Superman lands in USSR instead of USA?  Doesn't work out so well.)  Alt-Universe Larry Bird wouldn't have flown under the radar in some po-dunk town.  We know about prospects in 3rd world countries these days several years before they enter the NBA.  Even if Bird didn't transfer to an Oak HIll, he would still have traveled nationally as a kid.   We have mock drafts and consensus top picks for draft classes 2-3 years out.  We would have known about Bird several years before he even graduated.  His dirt poor family (parents divorced when he was in high school and father killed himself in 1975) would have been keenly aware of the opportunities awaiting Larry Bird in the modern basketball landscape.  Prospects on the level of Larry Bird are essentially human lottery tickets these days.  How many stories have you heard these days about families from the projects/ghetto riding on their meal tickets' coattails?   

Side note:  One of the major reasons Bird left Bobby Knight's program was that he couldn't afford College even with his scholarship.  He was completely broke.  These days they obviously have (some controversial) systems and programs in place to help a top level recruit afford College in spite of coming from poverty. 

The people surrounding alt-universe Larry Bird would not allow him to pass up guaranteed multi-millions to risk injury for a low level college basketball program.   That just does not happen these days.   And this is partially why there is a push to force the NBA to have an age restriction - 2016 College basketball is a joke.

So no, do not compare "Senior Larry Bird" (who would have been drafted #1 after a single season of College basketball) to Buddy Hield (who would not have been drafted as a freshman, might not have been drafted as a Sophomore, and was a borderline first rounder as Junior).   Had Hield come out last year, there's a chance he would have gone in the 2nd round and not received a guaranteed contract.  Staying in College an extra year benefited him, because he improved, had a major experience advantage, and had great surrounding shooters that possibly inflated his (potentially flukey) shooting percentages (keep in mind his 3P% dropped between Sophomore and Junior years... doubtful he shoots 46% from three next year).

It's a ridiculous comparison that doesn't take into account any context surrounding Bird's 3 years of College ball vs Hield's 4 years.  Comparing them makes no sense whatsoever.

If you want to dig deep to find an example of a 4 year College player who was drafted in the lotto and made an all-star team, the two options are Damian Lillard (who would have come out after a strong Junior season, but got injured 10 games into the season and got a redshirt junior designation... technically he was a Junior when he entered the NBA) or Brandon Roy.    Nobody else. 

Brandon Roy happened a decade ago.  So maybe it's a once in a decade thing.  Maybe Hield will be the next flukey Senior drafted in the lotto to have a decent career like Brandon Roy.

It's not really all that flukey.  In the last 10 drafts, of the 140 players drafted in the lottery, 21 have gone on to be all stars so far.  That's 15%.  Over that same span, 16 seniors have been drafted in the lottery.  2 of them have become all stars, for a rate of 12.5%.

So we are talking a difference of 2.5% in rate of all stars between all players drafted in the lottery and seniors drafted in the lottery.  That's fairly insignificant given the sample size.

[byennie]

How on Earth can Larry Bird have been a great freshman if his freshman year he got intimidated by the Hoosiers and left campus without even telling his coach?

I get that Bobby Knight has that affect on people, but I think at best we're talking about a player that would have come off as Adam Morrison/Kelly Olynyk/Royce White

And technically there is not exactly $125million on the line. The kid that comes out today and is drafted first gets a two year minimum deal for $5mill per and then gets another contract with a shoe company for another few mill. They don't break the bank their first day. The money comes after being successful.

Some of these players were happy to come out early and get picked late (Perk, Rashard Lewis), but some realized "Hmmm.....if I stay in school I can raise my draft stock" and stayed a few years.....Steph Curry, Hasheem Thabeet, Marcus Smart, Willy Cauley Stein, Victor Oladipo, Damian Lillard, Kemba Walker, Evan Turner, Al Horford, Joacim Noah

There are plenty of upperclassmen that fail to become great, but there are tons of freshmen that don't do anything either. Tons of these freshmen have to spend years in the NBDL or just never get good or get good for another team. It might make sense to pick a guy that has dominated college with an nba skill that is ready to go today with a defined role.

Eja, I don't think you're understanding my point.   Larry Bird in 1973 was a phenom high school player.   It wasn't until 1975 that the first players jumped directly from high school to the pros after a Supreme Court decision gave players the opportunity to enter the NBA Draft without four years of college, provided they could give evidence of hardship to the NBA office.   So the point is, when Bird reached high school, the option to the enter the NBA without 4 years of College wasn't even there.  You also understand it was an entirely different culture, right?  NBA teams weren't worth 2 billion dollars.  There weren't 100 million dollar shoe contracts being dolled out to high schoolers.  There wasn't multi billion dollar television deals - in the 1980s they were still showing playoff games on tape delay.   Players were making I think on average about $30,000 in the mid 70s.  There wasn't an entire network of global scouting organizations keeping tabs on high schoolers.  There wasn't national tours for high schoolers.  McDonalds All American designation didn't exist until after Bird graduated.  There wasn't billion dollar television contracts for College games.  The first March Madness bracket pool didn't even happen until the late 70s. 

If you're going to ask the question, "Would Bird have stayed 4 years if he was coming out today" you have to play by the rules of your premise.   We have to make the following assumptions:

#1 - Larry Bird was a transcendent player.  Top 5 of all time.  He was dominant in high school and highly recruited - originally ending up in a major program.  He was dominant immediately when playing on the COllege level.  It's a known fact he would have gone 1st had he left College early.  This is an important assumption, because one could make the case that alt-universe Larry Bird growing up in the mid 00s would not have had the same level of hardship to force him to obsessively play basketball as an escape.  But I assume we're making the assumption that Larry Bird as a transcendent player carries over to this dumb hypothetical.

#2 - We're operating in an alt-universe where Bird comes out in 2016

So based on these two assumptions, Bird's modern equivalent is I guess LeBron James.  Transcendent otherworldly talent.  LeBron got a 100 million dollar contract from Nike before even stepping on an NBA court.  And if Bird was coming out in 2016, we can also assume he was attending high school from 2012-16.   (I'm bolding that, because I feel like that's the part that you're having trouble grasping.  Alt universes are a tricky concept.  Ever read the comicbook where Superman lands in USSR instead of USA?  Doesn't work out so well.)  Alt-Universe Larry Bird wouldn't have flown under the radar in some po-dunk town.  We know about prospects in 3rd world countries these days several years before they enter the NBA.  Even if Bird didn't transfer to an Oak HIll, he would still have traveled nationally as a kid.   We have mock drafts and consensus top picks for draft classes 2-3 years out.  We would have known about Bird several years before he even graduated.  His dirt poor family (parents divorced when he was in high school and father killed himself in 1975) would have been keenly aware of the opportunities awaiting Larry Bird in the modern basketball landscape.  Prospects on the level of Larry Bird are essentially human lottery tickets these days.  How many stories have you heard these days about families from the projects/ghetto riding on their meal tickets' coattails?   

Side note:  One of the major reasons Bird left Bobby Knight's program was that he couldn't afford College even with his scholarship.  He was completely broke.  These days they obviously have (some controversial) systems and programs in place to help a top level recruit afford College in spite of coming from poverty. 

The people surrounding alt-universe Larry Bird would not allow him to pass up guaranteed multi-millions to risk injury for a low level college basketball program.   That just does not happen these days.   And this is partially why there is a push to force the NBA to have an age restriction - 2016 College basketball is a joke.

So no, do not compare "Senior Larry Bird" (who would have been drafted #1 after a single season of College basketball) to Buddy Hield (who would not have been drafted as a freshman, might not have been drafted as a Sophomore, and was a borderline first rounder as Junior).   Had Hield come out last year, there's a chance he would have gone in the 2nd round and not received a guaranteed contract.  Staying in College an extra year benefited him, because he improved, had a major experience advantage, and had great surrounding shooters that possibly inflated his (potentially flukey) shooting percentages (keep in mind his 3P% dropped between Sophomore and Junior years... doubtful he shoots 46% from three next year).

It's a ridiculous comparison that doesn't take into account any context surrounding Bird's 3 years of College ball vs Hield's 4 years.  Comparing them makes no sense whatsoever.

If you want to dig deep to find an example of a 4 year College player who was drafted in the lotto and made an all-star team, the two options are Damian Lillard (who would have come out after a strong Junior season, but got injured 10 games into the season and got a redshirt junior designation... technically he was a Junior when he entered the NBA) or Brandon Roy.    Nobody else. 

Brandon Roy happened a decade ago.  So maybe it's a once in a decade thing.  Maybe Hield will be the next flukey Senior drafted in the lotto to have a decent career like Brandon Roy.

It's not really all that flukey.  In the last 10 drafts, of the 140 players drafted in the lottery, 21 have gone on to be all stars so far.  That's 15%.  Over that same span, 16 seniors have been drafted in the lottery.  2 of them have become all stars, for a rate of 12.5%.

So we are talking a difference of 2.5% in rate of all stars between all players drafted in the lottery and seniors drafted in the lottery.  That's fairly insignificant given the sample size.

This. Seniors don't often get drafted in the lottery, but when they are so good that they go that high, their track record is just fine compared to underclassmen. Both sides have plenty of busts.

[LarBrd33]

How on Earth can Larry Bird have been a great freshman if his freshman year he got intimidated by the Hoosiers and left campus without even telling his coach?

I get that Bobby Knight has that affect on people, but I think at best we're talking about a player that would have come off as Adam Morrison/Kelly Olynyk/Royce White

And technically there is not exactly $125million on the line. The kid that comes out today and is drafted first gets a two year minimum deal for $5mill per and then gets another contract with a shoe company for another few mill. They don't break the bank their first day. The money comes after being successful.

Some of these players were happy to come out early and get picked late (Perk, Rashard Lewis), but some realized "Hmmm.....if I stay in school I can raise my draft stock" and stayed a few years.....Steph Curry, Hasheem Thabeet, Marcus Smart, Willy Cauley Stein, Victor Oladipo, Damian Lillard, Kemba Walker, Evan Turner, Al Horford, Joacim Noah

There are plenty of upperclassmen that fail to become great, but there are tons of freshmen that don't do anything either. Tons of these freshmen have to spend years in the NBDL or just never get good or get good for another team. It might make sense to pick a guy that has dominated college with an nba skill that is ready to go today with a defined role.

Eja, I don't think you're understanding my point.   Larry Bird in 1973 was a phenom high school player.   It wasn't until 1975 that the first players jumped directly from high school to the pros after a Supreme Court decision gave players the opportunity to enter the NBA Draft without four years of college, provided they could give evidence of hardship to the NBA office.   So the point is, when Bird reached high school, the option to the enter the NBA without 4 years of College wasn't even there.  You also understand it was an entirely different culture, right?  NBA teams weren't worth 2 billion dollars.  There weren't 100 million dollar shoe contracts being dolled out to high schoolers.  There wasn't multi billion dollar television deals - in the 1980s they were still showing playoff games on tape delay.   Players were making I think on average about $30,000 in the mid 70s.  There wasn't an entire network of global scouting organizations keeping tabs on high schoolers.  There wasn't national tours for high schoolers.  McDonalds All American designation didn't exist until after Bird graduated.  There wasn't billion dollar television contracts for College games.  The first March Madness bracket pool didn't even happen until the late 70s. 

If you're going to ask the question, "Would Bird have stayed 4 years if he was coming out today" you have to play by the rules of your premise.   We have to make the following assumptions:

#1 - Larry Bird was a transcendent player.  Top 5 of all time.  He was dominant in high school and highly recruited - originally ending up in a major program.  He was dominant immediately when playing on the COllege level.  It's a known fact he would have gone 1st had he left College early.  This is an important assumption, because one could make the case that alt-universe Larry Bird growing up in the mid 00s would not have had the same level of hardship to force him to obsessively play basketball as an escape.  But I assume we're making the assumption that Larry Bird as a transcendent player carries over to this dumb hypothetical.

#2 - We're operating in an alt-universe where Bird comes out in 2016

So based on these two assumptions, Bird's modern equivalent is I guess LeBron James.  Transcendent otherworldly talent.  LeBron got a 100 million dollar contract from Nike before even stepping on an NBA court.  And if Bird was coming out in 2016, we can also assume he was attending high school from 2012-16.   (I'm bolding that, because I feel like that's the part that you're having trouble grasping.  Alt universes are a tricky concept.  Ever read the comicbook where Superman lands in USSR instead of USA?  Doesn't work out so well.)  Alt-Universe Larry Bird wouldn't have flown under the radar in some po-dunk town.  We know about prospects in 3rd world countries these days several years before they enter the NBA.  Even if Bird didn't transfer to an Oak HIll, he would still have traveled nationally as a kid.   We have mock drafts and consensus top picks for draft classes 2-3 years out.  We would have known about Bird several years before he even graduated.  His dirt poor family (parents divorced when he was in high school and father killed himself in 1975) would have been keenly aware of the opportunities awaiting Larry Bird in the modern basketball landscape.  Prospects on the level of Larry Bird are essentially human lottery tickets these days.  How many stories have you heard these days about families from the projects/ghetto riding on their meal tickets' coattails?   

Side note:  One of the major reasons Bird left Bobby Knight's program was that he couldn't afford College even with his scholarship.  He was completely broke.  These days they obviously have (some controversial) systems and programs in place to help a top level recruit afford College in spite of coming from poverty. 

The people surrounding alt-universe Larry Bird would not allow him to pass up guaranteed multi-millions to risk injury for a low level college basketball program.   That just does not happen these days.   And this is partially why there is a push to force the NBA to have an age restriction - 2016 College basketball is a joke.

So no, do not compare "Senior Larry Bird" (who would have been drafted #1 after a single season of College basketball) to Buddy Hield (who would not have been drafted as a freshman, might not have been drafted as a Sophomore, and was a borderline first rounder as Junior).   Had Hield come out last year, there's a chance he would have gone in the 2nd round and not received a guaranteed contract.  Staying in College an extra year benefited him, because he improved, had a major experience advantage, and had great surrounding shooters that possibly inflated his (potentially flukey) shooting percentages (keep in mind his 3P% dropped between Sophomore and Junior years... doubtful he shoots 46% from three next year).

It's a ridiculous comparison that doesn't take into account any context surrounding Bird's 3 years of College ball vs Hield's 4 years.  Comparing them makes no sense whatsoever.

If you want to dig deep to find an example of a 4 year College player who was drafted in the lotto and made an all-star team, the two options are Damian Lillard (who would have come out after a strong Junior season, but got injured 10 games into the season and got a redshirt junior designation... technically he was a Junior when he entered the NBA) or Brandon Roy.    Nobody else. 

Brandon Roy happened a decade ago.  So maybe it's a once in a decade thing.  Maybe Hield will be the next flukey Senior drafted in the lotto to have a decent career like Brandon Roy.

It's not really all that flukey.  In the last 10 drafts, of the 140 players drafted in the lottery, 21 have gone on to be all stars so far.  That's 15%.  Over that same span, 16 seniors have been drafted in the lottery.  2 of them have become all stars, for a rate of 12.5%.

So we are talking a difference of 2.5% in rate of all stars between all players drafted in the lottery and seniors drafted in the lottery.  That's fairly insignificant given the sample size.

Well again...  Officially, Lillard jumped to the NBA after his Junior season.  He could have played another year of COllege ball and left his Senior year, but he didn't.   I guess it doesn't matter, though.   

It will be a real bummer if we end up trading the pick and Hield ends up surpassing expectations like a few people here think he will.   

[RedClaw33]

How on Earth can Larry Bird have been a great freshman if his freshman year he got intimidated by the Hoosiers and left campus without even telling his coach?

I get that Bobby Knight has that affect on people, but I think at best we're talking about a player that would have come off as Adam Morrison/Kelly Olynyk/Royce White

And technically there is not exactly $125million on the line. The kid that comes out today and is drafted first gets a two year minimum deal for $5mill per and then gets another contract with a shoe company for another few mill. They don't break the bank their first day. The money comes after being successful.

Some of these players were happy to come out early and get picked late (Perk, Rashard Lewis), but some realized "Hmmm.....if I stay in school I can raise my draft stock" and stayed a few years.....Steph Curry, Hasheem Thabeet, Marcus Smart, Willy Cauley Stein, Victor Oladipo, Damian Lillard, Kemba Walker, Evan Turner, Al Horford, Joacim Noah

There are plenty of upperclassmen that fail to become great, but there are tons of freshmen that don't do anything either. Tons of these freshmen have to spend years in the NBDL or just never get good or get good for another team. It might make sense to pick a guy that has dominated college with an nba skill that is ready to go today with a defined role.

Eja, I don't think you're understanding my point.   Larry Bird in 1973 was a phenom high school player.   It wasn't until 1975 that the first players jumped directly from high school to the pros after a Supreme Court decision gave players the opportunity to enter the NBA Draft without four years of college, provided they could give evidence of hardship to the NBA office.   So the point is, when Bird reached high school, the option to the enter the NBA without 4 years of College wasn't even there.  You also understand it was an entirely different culture, right?  NBA teams weren't worth 2 billion dollars.  There weren't 100 million dollar shoe contracts being dolled out to high schoolers.  There wasn't multi billion dollar television deals - in the 1980s they were still showing playoff games on tape delay.   Players were making I think on average about $30,000 in the mid 70s.  There wasn't an entire network of global scouting organizations keeping tabs on high schoolers.  There wasn't national tours for high schoolers.  McDonalds All American designation didn't exist until after Bird graduated.  There wasn't billion dollar television contracts for College games.  The first March Madness bracket pool didn't even happen until the late 70s. 

If you're going to ask the question, "Would Bird have stayed 4 years if he was coming out today" you have to play by the rules of your premise.   We have to make the following assumptions:

#1 - Larry Bird was a transcendent player.  Top 5 of all time.  He was dominant in high school and highly recruited - originally ending up in a major program.  He was dominant immediately when playing on the COllege level.  It's a known fact he would have gone 1st had he left College early.  This is an important assumption, because one could make the case that alt-universe Larry Bird growing up in the mid 00s would not have had the same level of hardship to force him to obsessively play basketball as an escape.  But I assume we're making the assumption that Larry Bird as a transcendent player carries over to this dumb hypothetical.

#2 - We're operating in an alt-universe where Bird comes out in 2016

So based on these two assumptions, Bird's modern equivalent is I guess LeBron James.  Transcendent otherworldly talent.  LeBron got a 100 million dollar contract from Nike before even stepping on an NBA court.  And if Bird was coming out in 2016, we can also assume he was attending high school from 2012-16.   (I'm bolding that, because I feel like that's the part that you're having trouble grasping.  Alt universes are a tricky concept.  Ever read the comicbook where Superman lands in USSR instead of USA?  Doesn't work out so well.)  Alt-Universe Larry Bird wouldn't have flown under the radar in some po-dunk town.  We know about prospects in 3rd world countries these days several years before they enter the NBA.  Even if Bird didn't transfer to an Oak HIll, he would still have traveled nationally as a kid.   We have mock drafts and consensus top picks for draft classes 2-3 years out.  We would have known about Bird several years before he even graduated.  His dirt poor family (parents divorced when he was in high school and father killed himself in 1975) would have been keenly aware of the opportunities awaiting Larry Bird in the modern basketball landscape.  Prospects on the level of Larry Bird are essentially human lottery tickets these days.  How many stories have you heard these days about families from the projects/ghetto riding on their meal tickets' coattails?   

Side note:  One of the major reasons Bird left Bobby Knight's program was that he couldn't afford College even with his scholarship.  He was completely broke.  These days they obviously have (some controversial) systems and programs in place to help a top level recruit afford College in spite of coming from poverty. 

The people surrounding alt-universe Larry Bird would not allow him to pass up guaranteed multi-millions to risk injury for a low level college basketball program.   That just does not happen these days.   And this is partially why there is a push to force the NBA to have an age restriction - 2016 College basketball is a joke.

So no, do not compare "Senior Larry Bird" (who would have been drafted #1 after a single season of College basketball) to Buddy Hield (who would not have been drafted as a freshman, might not have been drafted as a Sophomore, and was a borderline first rounder as Junior).   Had Hield come out last year, there's a chance he would have gone in the 2nd round and not received a guaranteed contract.  Staying in College an extra year benefited him, because he improved, had a major experience advantage, and had great surrounding shooters that possibly inflated his (potentially flukey) shooting percentages (keep in mind his 3P% dropped between Sophomore and Junior years... doubtful he shoots 46% from three next year).

It's a ridiculous comparison that doesn't take into account any context surrounding Bird's 3 years of College ball vs Hield's 4 years.  Comparing them makes no sense whatsoever.

If you want to dig deep to find an example of a 4 year College player who was drafted in the lotto and made an all-star team, the two options are Damian Lillard (who would have come out after a strong Junior season, but got injured 10 games into the season and got a redshirt junior designation... technically he was a Junior when he entered the NBA) or Brandon Roy.    Nobody else. 

Brandon Roy happened a decade ago.  So maybe it's a once in a decade thing.  Maybe Hield will be the next flukey Senior drafted in the lotto to have a decent career like Brandon Roy.

It's not really all that flukey.  In the last 10 drafts, of the 140 players drafted in the lottery, 21 have gone on to be all stars so far.  That's 15%.  Over that same span, 16 seniors have been drafted in the lottery.  2 of them have become all stars, for a rate of 12.5%.

So we are talking a difference of 2.5% in rate of all stars between all players drafted in the lottery and seniors drafted in the lottery.  That's fairly insignificant given the sample size.

Well again...  Officially, Lillard jumped to the NBA after his Junior season.  He could have played another year of COllege ball and left his Senior year, but he didn't.   I guess it doesn't matter, though.   

It will be a real bummer if we end up trading the pick and Hield ends up surpassing expectations like a few people here think he will.

Lillard was a senior not a junior.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/damian-lillard-1.html

[tankcity!]

How on Earth can Larry Bird have been a great freshman if his freshman year he got intimidated by the Hoosiers and left campus without even telling his coach?

I get that Bobby Knight has that affect on people, but I think at best we're talking about a player that would have come off as Adam Morrison/Kelly Olynyk/Royce White

And technically there is not exactly $125million on the line. The kid that comes out today and is drafted first gets a two year minimum deal for $5mill per and then gets another contract with a shoe company for another few mill. They don't break the bank their first day. The money comes after being successful.

Some of these players were happy to come out early and get picked late (Perk, Rashard Lewis), but some realized "Hmmm.....if I stay in school I can raise my draft stock" and stayed a few years.....Steph Curry, Hasheem Thabeet, Marcus Smart, Willy Cauley Stein, Victor Oladipo, Damian Lillard, Kemba Walker, Evan Turner, Al Horford, Joacim Noah

There are plenty of upperclassmen that fail to become great, but there are tons of freshmen that don't do anything either. Tons of these freshmen have to spend years in the NBDL or just never get good or get good for another team. It might make sense to pick a guy that has dominated college with an nba skill that is ready to go today with a defined role.

Eja, I don't think you're understanding my point.   Larry Bird in 1973 was a phenom high school player.   It wasn't until 1975 that the first players jumped directly from high school to the pros after a Supreme Court decision gave players the opportunity to enter the NBA Draft without four years of college, provided they could give evidence of hardship to the NBA office.   So the point is, when Bird reached high school, the option to the enter the NBA without 4 years of College wasn't even there.  You also understand it was an entirely different culture, right?  NBA teams weren't worth 2 billion dollars.  There weren't 100 million dollar shoe contracts being dolled out to high schoolers.  There wasn't multi billion dollar television deals - in the 1980s they were still showing playoff games on tape delay.   Players were making I think on average about $30,000 in the mid 70s.  There wasn't an entire network of global scouting organizations keeping tabs on high schoolers.  There wasn't national tours for high schoolers.  McDonalds All American designation didn't exist until after Bird graduated.  There wasn't billion dollar television contracts for College games.  The first March Madness bracket pool didn't even happen until the late 70s. 

If you're going to ask the question, "Would Bird have stayed 4 years if he was coming out today" you have to play by the rules of your premise.   We have to make the following assumptions:

#1 - Larry Bird was a transcendent player.  Top 5 of all time.  He was dominant in high school and highly recruited - originally ending up in a major program.  He was dominant immediately when playing on the COllege level.  It's a known fact he would have gone 1st had he left College early.  This is an important assumption, because one could make the case that alt-universe Larry Bird growing up in the mid 00s would not have had the same level of hardship to force him to obsessively play basketball as an escape.  But I assume we're making the assumption that Larry Bird as a transcendent player carries over to this dumb hypothetical.

#2 - We're operating in an alt-universe where Bird comes out in 2016

So based on these two assumptions, Bird's modern equivalent is I guess LeBron James.  Transcendent otherworldly talent.  LeBron got a 100 million dollar contract from Nike before even stepping on an NBA court.  And if Bird was coming out in 2016, we can also assume he was attending high school from 2012-16.   (I'm bolding that, because I feel like that's the part that you're having trouble grasping.  Alt universes are a tricky concept.  Ever read the comicbook where Superman lands in USSR instead of USA?  Doesn't work out so well.)  Alt-Universe Larry Bird wouldn't have flown under the radar in some po-dunk town.  We know about prospects in 3rd world countries these days several years before they enter the NBA.  Even if Bird didn't transfer to an Oak HIll, he would still have traveled nationally as a kid.   We have mock drafts and consensus top picks for draft classes 2-3 years out.  We would have known about Bird several years before he even graduated.  His dirt poor family (parents divorced when he was in high school and father killed himself in 1975) would have been keenly aware of the opportunities awaiting Larry Bird in the modern basketball landscape.  Prospects on the level of Larry Bird are essentially human lottery tickets these days.  How many stories have you heard these days about families from the projects/ghetto riding on their meal tickets' coattails?   

Side note:  One of the major reasons Bird left Bobby Knight's program was that he couldn't afford College even with his scholarship.  He was completely broke.  These days they obviously have (some controversial) systems and programs in place to help a top level recruit afford College in spite of coming from poverty. 

The people surrounding alt-universe Larry Bird would not allow him to pass up guaranteed multi-millions to risk injury for a low level college basketball program.   That just does not happen these days.   And this is partially why there is a push to force the NBA to have an age restriction - 2016 College basketball is a joke.

So no, do not compare "Senior Larry Bird" (who would have been drafted #1 after a single season of College basketball) to Buddy Hield (who would not have been drafted as a freshman, might not have been drafted as a Sophomore, and was a borderline first rounder as Junior).   Had Hield come out last year, there's a chance he would have gone in the 2nd round and not received a guaranteed contract.  Staying in College an extra year benefited him, because he improved, had a major experience advantage, and had great surrounding shooters that possibly inflated his (potentially flukey) shooting percentages (keep in mind his 3P% dropped between Sophomore and Junior years... doubtful he shoots 46% from three next year).

It's a ridiculous comparison that doesn't take into account any context surrounding Bird's 3 years of College ball vs Hield's 4 years.  Comparing them makes no sense whatsoever.

If you want to dig deep to find an example of a 4 year College player who was drafted in the lotto and made an all-star team, the two options are Damian Lillard (who would have come out after a strong Junior season, but got injured 10 games into the season and got a redshirt junior designation... technically he was a Junior when he entered the NBA) or Brandon Roy.    Nobody else. 

Brandon Roy happened a decade ago.  So maybe it's a once in a decade thing.  Maybe Hield will be the next flukey Senior drafted in the lotto to have a decent career like Brandon Roy.

It's not really all that flukey.  In the last 10 drafts, of the 140 players drafted in the lottery, 21 have gone on to be all stars so far.  That's 15%.  Over that same span, 16 seniors have been drafted in the lottery.  2 of them have become all stars, for a rate of 12.5%.

So we are talking a difference of 2.5% in rate of all stars between all players drafted in the lottery and seniors drafted in the lottery.  That's fairly insignificant given the sample size.

Well again...  Officially, Lillard jumped to the NBA after his Junior season.  He could have played another year of COllege ball and left his Senior year, but he didn't.   I guess it doesn't matter, though.   

It will be a real bummer if we end up trading the pick and Hield ends up surpassing expectations like a few people here think he will.

Lillard was a senior not a junior.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/damian-lillard-1.html

So you have one senior that turned out to be good? Congratulations...Thankfully Ainge incorporates probability into his decision making. This is the new modern NBA, good college seniors rarley turn out to be more than just role players. Anyways, we'll see who has the last laugh about Buddy Hield. AKA set shot, AKA old man taking advantage of teenagers.

Also, Hield wasn't as good as Lillard in college since Hield just got good his senior year.

[LarBrd33]

How on Earth can Larry Bird have been a great freshman if his freshman year he got intimidated by the Hoosiers and left campus without even telling his coach?

I get that Bobby Knight has that affect on people, but I think at best we're talking about a player that would have come off as Adam Morrison/Kelly Olynyk/Royce White

And technically there is not exactly $125million on the line. The kid that comes out today and is drafted first gets a two year minimum deal for $5mill per and then gets another contract with a shoe company for another few mill. They don't break the bank their first day. The money comes after being successful.

Some of these players were happy to come out early and get picked late (Perk, Rashard Lewis), but some realized "Hmmm.....if I stay in school I can raise my draft stock" and stayed a few years.....Steph Curry, Hasheem Thabeet, Marcus Smart, Willy Cauley Stein, Victor Oladipo, Damian Lillard, Kemba Walker, Evan Turner, Al Horford, Joacim Noah

There are plenty of upperclassmen that fail to become great, but there are tons of freshmen that don't do anything either. Tons of these freshmen have to spend years in the NBDL or just never get good or get good for another team. It might make sense to pick a guy that has dominated college with an nba skill that is ready to go today with a defined role.

Eja, I don't think you're understanding my point.   Larry Bird in 1973 was a phenom high school player.   It wasn't until 1975 that the first players jumped directly from high school to the pros after a Supreme Court decision gave players the opportunity to enter the NBA Draft without four years of college, provided they could give evidence of hardship to the NBA office.   So the point is, when Bird reached high school, the option to the enter the NBA without 4 years of College wasn't even there.  You also understand it was an entirely different culture, right?  NBA teams weren't worth 2 billion dollars.  There weren't 100 million dollar shoe contracts being dolled out to high schoolers.  There wasn't multi billion dollar television deals - in the 1980s they were still showing playoff games on tape delay.   Players were making I think on average about $30,000 in the mid 70s.  There wasn't an entire network of global scouting organizations keeping tabs on high schoolers.  There wasn't national tours for high schoolers.  McDonalds All American designation didn't exist until after Bird graduated.  There wasn't billion dollar television contracts for College games.  The first March Madness bracket pool didn't even happen until the late 70s. 

If you're going to ask the question, "Would Bird have stayed 4 years if he was coming out today" you have to play by the rules of your premise.   We have to make the following assumptions:

#1 - Larry Bird was a transcendent player.  Top 5 of all time.  He was dominant in high school and highly recruited - originally ending up in a major program.  He was dominant immediately when playing on the COllege level.  It's a known fact he would have gone 1st had he left College early.  This is an important assumption, because one could make the case that alt-universe Larry Bird growing up in the mid 00s would not have had the same level of hardship to force him to obsessively play basketball as an escape.  But I assume we're making the assumption that Larry Bird as a transcendent player carries over to this dumb hypothetical.

#2 - We're operating in an alt-universe where Bird comes out in 2016

So based on these two assumptions, Bird's modern equivalent is I guess LeBron James.  Transcendent otherworldly talent.  LeBron got a 100 million dollar contract from Nike before even stepping on an NBA court.  And if Bird was coming out in 2016, we can also assume he was attending high school from 2012-16.   (I'm bolding that, because I feel like that's the part that you're having trouble grasping.  Alt universes are a tricky concept.  Ever read the comicbook where Superman lands in USSR instead of USA?  Doesn't work out so well.)  Alt-Universe Larry Bird wouldn't have flown under the radar in some po-dunk town.  We know about prospects in 3rd world countries these days several years before they enter the NBA.  Even if Bird didn't transfer to an Oak HIll, he would still have traveled nationally as a kid.   We have mock drafts and consensus top picks for draft classes 2-3 years out.  We would have known about Bird several years before he even graduated.  His dirt poor family (parents divorced when he was in high school and father killed himself in 1975) would have been keenly aware of the opportunities awaiting Larry Bird in the modern basketball landscape.  Prospects on the level of Larry Bird are essentially human lottery tickets these days.  How many stories have you heard these days about families from the projects/ghetto riding on their meal tickets' coattails?   

Side note:  One of the major reasons Bird left Bobby Knight's program was that he couldn't afford College even with his scholarship.  He was completely broke.  These days they obviously have (some controversial) systems and programs in place to help a top level recruit afford College in spite of coming from poverty. 

The people surrounding alt-universe Larry Bird would not allow him to pass up guaranteed multi-millions to risk injury for a low level college basketball program.   That just does not happen these days.   And this is partially why there is a push to force the NBA to have an age restriction - 2016 College basketball is a joke.

So no, do not compare "Senior Larry Bird" (who would have been drafted #1 after a single season of College basketball) to Buddy Hield (who would not have been drafted as a freshman, might not have been drafted as a Sophomore, and was a borderline first rounder as Junior).   Had Hield come out last year, there's a chance he would have gone in the 2nd round and not received a guaranteed contract.  Staying in College an extra year benefited him, because he improved, had a major experience advantage, and had great surrounding shooters that possibly inflated his (potentially flukey) shooting percentages (keep in mind his 3P% dropped between Sophomore and Junior years... doubtful he shoots 46% from three next year).

It's a ridiculous comparison that doesn't take into account any context surrounding Bird's 3 years of College ball vs Hield's 4 years.  Comparing them makes no sense whatsoever.

If you want to dig deep to find an example of a 4 year College player who was drafted in the lotto and made an all-star team, the two options are Damian Lillard (who would have come out after a strong Junior season, but got injured 10 games into the season and got a redshirt junior designation... technically he was a Junior when he entered the NBA) or Brandon Roy.    Nobody else. 

Brandon Roy happened a decade ago.  So maybe it's a once in a decade thing.  Maybe Hield will be the next flukey Senior drafted in the lotto to have a decent career like Brandon Roy.

It's not really all that flukey.  In the last 10 drafts, of the 140 players drafted in the lottery, 21 have gone on to be all stars so far.  That's 15%.  Over that same span, 16 seniors have been drafted in the lottery.  2 of them have become all stars, for a rate of 12.5%.

So we are talking a difference of 2.5% in rate of all stars between all players drafted in the lottery and seniors drafted in the lottery.  That's fairly insignificant given the sample size.

Well again...  Officially, Lillard jumped to the NBA after his Junior season.  He could have played another year of COllege ball and left his Senior year, but he didn't.   I guess it doesn't matter, though.   

It will be a real bummer if we end up trading the pick and Hield ends up surpassing expectations like a few people here think he will.

Lillard was a senior not a junior.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/damian-lillard-1.html

False.

He got injured 9 games into his 3rd season and applied for and was granted a medical redshirt.  Officially, his 3rd season never existed.   He basically got a "do-over" on his Junior year.   Additionally, coaches and guidance counselors spread out his final college credits over two years. 

Officially, his final season of College basketball was his Junior season.   Had he wanted to, he could have played an additional season (his Senior season), but he jumped ship early to the NBA.  This is why Lillard didn't graduate College after his final year of basketball.   He came back and completed the necessary credits he missed by jumping ship early and officially graduated in 2015.









...

He was a Junior. 

Not that it matters really.  Sounds like most expect Hield to be a high level role player.  It doesn't mean the experts are right.

Over the past decade, the only 4 year Senior to be taken in the lotto and make an all-star team was Brandon Roy.  His career lasted a couple years. But you never know... maybe HIeld will defy the odds and expectations and be the next one. 

[LarBrd33]

How on Earth can Larry Bird have been a great freshman if his freshman year he got intimidated by the Hoosiers and left campus without even telling his coach?

I get that Bobby Knight has that affect on people, but I think at best we're talking about a player that would have come off as Adam Morrison/Kelly Olynyk/Royce White

And technically there is not exactly $125million on the line. The kid that comes out today and is drafted first gets a two year minimum deal for $5mill per and then gets another contract with a shoe company for another few mill. They don't break the bank their first day. The money comes after being successful.

Some of these players were happy to come out early and get picked late (Perk, Rashard Lewis), but some realized "Hmmm.....if I stay in school I can raise my draft stock" and stayed a few years.....Steph Curry, Hasheem Thabeet, Marcus Smart, Willy Cauley Stein, Victor Oladipo, Damian Lillard, Kemba Walker, Evan Turner, Al Horford, Joacim Noah

There are plenty of upperclassmen that fail to become great, but there are tons of freshmen that don't do anything either. Tons of these freshmen have to spend years in the NBDL or just never get good or get good for another team. It might make sense to pick a guy that has dominated college with an nba skill that is ready to go today with a defined role.

Eja, I don't think you're understanding my point.   Larry Bird in 1973 was a phenom high school player.   It wasn't until 1975 that the first players jumped directly from high school to the pros after a Supreme Court decision gave players the opportunity to enter the NBA Draft without four years of college, provided they could give evidence of hardship to the NBA office.   So the point is, when Bird reached high school, the option to the enter the NBA without 4 years of College wasn't even there.  You also understand it was an entirely different culture, right?  NBA teams weren't worth 2 billion dollars.  There weren't 100 million dollar shoe contracts being dolled out to high schoolers.  There wasn't multi billion dollar television deals - in the 1980s they were still showing playoff games on tape delay.   Players were making I think on average about $30,000 in the mid 70s.  There wasn't an entire network of global scouting organizations keeping tabs on high schoolers.  There wasn't national tours for high schoolers.  McDonalds All American designation didn't exist until after Bird graduated.  There wasn't billion dollar television contracts for College games.  The first March Madness bracket pool didn't even happen until the late 70s. 

If you're going to ask the question, "Would Bird have stayed 4 years if he was coming out today" you have to play by the rules of your premise.   We have to make the following assumptions:

#1 - Larry Bird was a transcendent player.  Top 5 of all time.  He was dominant in high school and highly recruited - originally ending up in a major program.  He was dominant immediately when playing on the COllege level.  It's a known fact he would have gone 1st had he left College early.  This is an important assumption, because one could make the case that alt-universe Larry Bird growing up in the mid 00s would not have had the same level of hardship to force him to obsessively play basketball as an escape.  But I assume we're making the assumption that Larry Bird as a transcendent player carries over to this dumb hypothetical.

#2 - We're operating in an alt-universe where Bird comes out in 2016

So based on these two assumptions, Bird's modern equivalent is I guess LeBron James.  Transcendent otherworldly talent.  LeBron got a 100 million dollar contract from Nike before even stepping on an NBA court.  And if Bird was coming out in 2016, we can also assume he was attending high school from 2012-16.   (I'm bolding that, because I feel like that's the part that you're having trouble grasping.  Alt universes are a tricky concept.  Ever read the comicbook where Superman lands in USSR instead of USA?  Doesn't work out so well.)  Alt-Universe Larry Bird wouldn't have flown under the radar in some po-dunk town.  We know about prospects in 3rd world countries these days several years before they enter the NBA.  Even if Bird didn't transfer to an Oak HIll, he would still have traveled nationally as a kid.   We have mock drafts and consensus top picks for draft classes 2-3 years out.  We would have known about Bird several years before he even graduated.  His dirt poor family (parents divorced when he was in high school and father killed himself in 1975) would have been keenly aware of the opportunities awaiting Larry Bird in the modern basketball landscape.  Prospects on the level of Larry Bird are essentially human lottery tickets these days.  How many stories have you heard these days about families from the projects/ghetto riding on their meal tickets' coattails?   

Side note:  One of the major reasons Bird left Bobby Knight's program was that he couldn't afford College even with his scholarship.  He was completely broke.  These days they obviously have (some controversial) systems and programs in place to help a top level recruit afford College in spite of coming from poverty. 

The people surrounding alt-universe Larry Bird would not allow him to pass up guaranteed multi-millions to risk injury for a low level college basketball program.   That just does not happen these days.   And this is partially why there is a push to force the NBA to have an age restriction - 2016 College basketball is a joke.

So no, do not compare "Senior Larry Bird" (who would have been drafted #1 after a single season of College basketball) to Buddy Hield (who would not have been drafted as a freshman, might not have been drafted as a Sophomore, and was a borderline first rounder as Junior).   Had Hield come out last year, there's a chance he would have gone in the 2nd round and not received a guaranteed contract.  Staying in College an extra year benefited him, because he improved, had a major experience advantage, and had great surrounding shooters that possibly inflated his (potentially flukey) shooting percentages (keep in mind his 3P% dropped between Sophomore and Junior years... doubtful he shoots 46% from three next year).

It's a ridiculous comparison that doesn't take into account any context surrounding Bird's 3 years of College ball vs Hield's 4 years.  Comparing them makes no sense whatsoever.

If you want to dig deep to find an example of a 4 year College player who was drafted in the lotto and made an all-star team, the two options are Damian Lillard (who would have come out after a strong Junior season, but got injured 10 games into the season and got a redshirt junior designation... technically he was a Junior when he entered the NBA) or Brandon Roy.    Nobody else. 

Brandon Roy happened a decade ago.  So maybe it's a once in a decade thing.  Maybe Hield will be the next flukey Senior drafted in the lotto to have a decent career like Brandon Roy.

It's not really all that flukey.  In the last 10 drafts, of the 140 players drafted in the lottery, 21 have gone on to be all stars so far.  That's 15%.  Over that same span, 16 seniors have been drafted in the lottery.  2 of them have become all stars, for a rate of 12.5%.

So we are talking a difference of 2.5% in rate of all stars between all players drafted in the lottery and seniors drafted in the lottery.  That's fairly insignificant given the sample size.

Well again...  Officially, Lillard jumped to the NBA after his Junior season.  He could have played another year of COllege ball and left his Senior year, but he didn't.   I guess it doesn't matter, though.   

It will be a real bummer if we end up trading the pick and Hield ends up surpassing expectations like a few people here think he will.

Lillard was a senior not a junior.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/damian-lillard-1.html

False.

He got injured 9 games into his 3rd season and applied for and was granted a medical redshirt.  Officially, his 3rd season never existed.   He basically got a "do-over" on his Junior year.   Additionally, coaches and guidance counselors spread out his final college credits over two years. 

Officially, his final season of College basketball was his Junior season.   Had he wanted to, he could have played an additional season (his Senior season), but he jumped ship early to the NBA.  This is why Lillard didn't graduate College after his final year of basketball.   He came back and completed the necessary credits he missed by jumping ship early and officially graduated in 2015.









...

He was a Junior. 

Not that it matters really.  Sounds like most expect Hield to be a high level role player.  It doesn't mean the experts are right.

Over the past decade, the only 4 year Senior to be taken in the lotto and make an all-star team was Brandon Roy.  His career lasted a couple years. But you never know... maybe HIeld will defy the odds and expectations and be the next one.

Also, go ahead and click on the team link for the same site you referenced.   Look at the roster.  What do ya see?  http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/weber-state/2012.html



Joonyah

Officially he left school early after his third year of ball - cuz that's generally what happens when someone is talented enough to get taken in the lotto.  They leave school early.  Officially Lillard left 3 years before he graduated college.

So there's been 1 out of 140 players over the past decade to have stayed until their senior season, got selected in the lotto, and made an all-star team.  Brandon Roy.   0.7%     

I guess we're due.   Hopefully for Hield if he defies the odds, he lasts past his rookie contract.  Brandon Roy only played 4 solid years of NBA basketball.   

[Celtics18]

How on Earth can Larry Bird have been a great freshman if his freshman year he got intimidated by the Hoosiers and left campus without even telling his coach?

I get that Bobby Knight has that affect on people, but I think at best we're talking about a player that would have come off as Adam Morrison/Kelly Olynyk/Royce White

And technically there is not exactly $125million on the line. The kid that comes out today and is drafted first gets a two year minimum deal for $5mill per and then gets another contract with a shoe company for another few mill. They don't break the bank their first day. The money comes after being successful.

Some of these players were happy to come out early and get picked late (Perk, Rashard Lewis), but some realized "Hmmm.....if I stay in school I can raise my draft stock" and stayed a few years.....Steph Curry, Hasheem Thabeet, Marcus Smart, Willy Cauley Stein, Victor Oladipo, Damian Lillard, Kemba Walker, Evan Turner, Al Horford, Joacim Noah

There are plenty of upperclassmen that fail to become great, but there are tons of freshmen that don't do anything either. Tons of these freshmen have to spend years in the NBDL or just never get good or get good for another team. It might make sense to pick a guy that has dominated college with an nba skill that is ready to go today with a defined role.

Eja, I don't think you're understanding my point.   Larry Bird in 1973 was a phenom high school player.   It wasn't until 1975 that the first players jumped directly from high school to the pros after a Supreme Court decision gave players the opportunity to enter the NBA Draft without four years of college, provided they could give evidence of hardship to the NBA office.   So the point is, when Bird reached high school, the option to the enter the NBA without 4 years of College wasn't even there.  You also understand it was an entirely different culture, right?  NBA teams weren't worth 2 billion dollars.  There weren't 100 million dollar shoe contracts being dolled out to high schoolers.  There wasn't multi billion dollar television deals - in the 1980s they were still showing playoff games on tape delay.   Players were making I think on average about $30,000 in the mid 70s.  There wasn't an entire network of global scouting organizations keeping tabs on high schoolers.  There wasn't national tours for high schoolers.  McDonalds All American designation didn't exist until after Bird graduated.  There wasn't billion dollar television contracts for College games.  The first March Madness bracket pool didn't even happen until the late 70s. 

If you're going to ask the question, "Would Bird have stayed 4 years if he was coming out today" you have to play by the rules of your premise.   We have to make the following assumptions:

#1 - Larry Bird was a transcendent player.  Top 5 of all time.  He was dominant in high school and highly recruited - originally ending up in a major program.  He was dominant immediately when playing on the COllege level.  It's a known fact he would have gone 1st had he left College early.  This is an important assumption, because one could make the case that alt-universe Larry Bird growing up in the mid 00s would not have had the same level of hardship to force him to obsessively play basketball as an escape.  But I assume we're making the assumption that Larry Bird as a transcendent player carries over to this dumb hypothetical.

#2 - We're operating in an alt-universe where Bird comes out in 2016

So based on these two assumptions, Bird's modern equivalent is I guess LeBron James.  Transcendent otherworldly talent.  LeBron got a 100 million dollar contract from Nike before even stepping on an NBA court.  And if Bird was coming out in 2016, we can also assume he was attending high school from 2012-16.   (I'm bolding that, because I feel like that's the part that you're having trouble grasping.  Alt universes are a tricky concept.  Ever read the comicbook where Superman lands in USSR instead of USA?  Doesn't work out so well.)  Alt-Universe Larry Bird wouldn't have flown under the radar in some po-dunk town.  We know about prospects in 3rd world countries these days several years before they enter the NBA.  Even if Bird didn't transfer to an Oak HIll, he would still have traveled nationally as a kid.   We have mock drafts and consensus top picks for draft classes 2-3 years out.  We would have known about Bird several years before he even graduated.  His dirt poor family (parents divorced when he was in high school and father killed himself in 1975) would have been keenly aware of the opportunities awaiting Larry Bird in the modern basketball landscape.  Prospects on the level of Larry Bird are essentially human lottery tickets these days.  How many stories have you heard these days about families from the projects/ghetto riding on their meal tickets' coattails?   

Side note:  One of the major reasons Bird left Bobby Knight's program was that he couldn't afford College even with his scholarship.  He was completely broke.  These days they obviously have (some controversial) systems and programs in place to help a top level recruit afford College in spite of coming from poverty. 

The people surrounding alt-universe Larry Bird would not allow him to pass up guaranteed multi-millions to risk injury for a low level college basketball program.   That just does not happen these days.   And this is partially why there is a push to force the NBA to have an age restriction - 2016 College basketball is a joke.

So no, do not compare "Senior Larry Bird" (who would have been drafted #1 after a single season of College basketball) to Buddy Hield (who would not have been drafted as a freshman, might not have been drafted as a Sophomore, and was a borderline first rounder as Junior).   Had Hield come out last year, there's a chance he would have gone in the 2nd round and not received a guaranteed contract.  Staying in College an extra year benefited him, because he improved, had a major experience advantage, and had great surrounding shooters that possibly inflated his (potentially flukey) shooting percentages (keep in mind his 3P% dropped between Sophomore and Junior years... doubtful he shoots 46% from three next year).

It's a ridiculous comparison that doesn't take into account any context surrounding Bird's 3 years of College ball vs Hield's 4 years.  Comparing them makes no sense whatsoever.

If you want to dig deep to find an example of a 4 year College player who was drafted in the lotto and made an all-star team, the two options are Damian Lillard (who would have come out after a strong Junior season, but got injured 10 games into the season and got a redshirt junior designation... technically he was a Junior when he entered the NBA) or Brandon Roy.    Nobody else. 

Brandon Roy happened a decade ago.  So maybe it's a once in a decade thing.  Maybe Hield will be the next flukey Senior drafted in the lotto to have a decent career like Brandon Roy.

It's not really all that flukey.  In the last 10 drafts, of the 140 players drafted in the lottery, 21 have gone on to be all stars so far.  That's 15%.  Over that same span, 16 seniors have been drafted in the lottery.  2 of them have become all stars, for a rate of 12.5%.

So we are talking a difference of 2.5% in rate of all stars between all players drafted in the lottery and seniors drafted in the lottery.  That's fairly insignificant given the sample size.

Well again...  Officially, Lillard jumped to the NBA after his Junior season.  He could have played another year of COllege ball and left his Senior year, but he didn't.   I guess it doesn't matter, though.   

It will be a real bummer if we end up trading the pick and Hield ends up surpassing expectations like a few people here think he will.

I guess that would depend on what we trade the pick for.  I've been saying for a while that my preferred plan is to keep the pick and take Buddy.

I probably won't get my wish either way, even if we keep the pick, though.  There sure are a lot of options.  It will be exciting to see what happens.